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Polymarket screwing over traders re Venezuela
| Claret fortuitous meteor trailer park | 01/06/26 |
| pearl bateful institution deer antler | 01/06/26 |
| Claret fortuitous meteor trailer park | 01/06/26 |
| pearl bateful institution deer antler | 01/06/26 |
| Claret fortuitous meteor trailer park | 01/06/26 |
| pearl bateful institution deer antler | 01/07/26 |
| Mint hall internal respiration | 01/06/26 |
| charismatic green fanboi tanning salon | 01/06/26 |
| Vigorous point | 01/06/26 |
| razzle-dazzle orchid circlehead | 01/06/26 |
| Contagious locus reading party | 01/06/26 |
| razzle-dazzle orchid circlehead | 01/06/26 |
| Vigorous point | 01/06/26 |
| razzle-dazzle orchid circlehead | 01/06/26 |
| Contagious locus reading party | 01/06/26 |
| Contagious locus reading party | 01/06/26 |
| honey-headed mind-boggling theater stage background story | 01/06/26 |
| Claret fortuitous meteor trailer park | 01/06/26 |
| awkward hell | 01/06/26 |
| Laughsome bistre set old irish cottage | 01/06/26 |
| Vigorous point | 01/06/26 |
| Claret fortuitous meteor trailer park | 01/06/26 |
| razzle-dazzle orchid circlehead | 01/06/26 |
| jade titillating plaza nibblets | 01/06/26 |
| histrionic ticket booth liquid oxygen | 01/07/26 |
| Cowardly rebellious native | 01/06/26 |
| electric navy gas station patrolman | 01/06/26 |
| Marvelous nubile property | 01/06/26 |
| Vigorous point | 01/06/26 |
| Marvelous nubile property | 01/06/26 |
| honey-headed mind-boggling theater stage background story | 01/06/26 |
| Pungent public bath gaming laptop | 01/07/26 |
| Plum clown | 01/06/26 |
| Contagious locus reading party | 01/06/26 |
| Vigorous point | 01/06/26 |
| Contagious locus reading party | 01/06/26 |
| razzle-dazzle orchid circlehead | 01/06/26 |
| honey-headed mind-boggling theater stage background story | 01/06/26 |
| Claret fortuitous meteor trailer park | 01/06/26 |
| razzle-dazzle orchid circlehead | 01/06/26 |
| Contagious locus reading party | 01/06/26 |
| Vigorous point | 01/06/26 |
| Mint hall internal respiration | 01/06/26 |
| Vigorous point | 01/06/26 |
| Vigorous point | 01/06/26 |
| Adventurous Meetinghouse | 01/06/26 |
| Claret fortuitous meteor trailer park | 01/06/26 |
| talented dilemma bbw | 01/06/26 |
| Dead international law enforcement agency lay | 01/06/26 |
| Dead international law enforcement agency lay | 01/06/26 |
| razzle brilliant codepig | 01/06/26 |
| Dead international law enforcement agency lay | 01/07/26 |
| Claret fortuitous meteor trailer park | 01/07/26 |
| honey-headed mind-boggling theater stage background story | 01/07/26 |
| Vigorous point | 01/07/26 |
| electric navy gas station patrolman | 01/07/26 |
| Dead international law enforcement agency lay | 01/07/26 |
| Mint hall internal respiration | 01/07/26 |
| Dead international law enforcement agency lay | 01/10/26 |
| Dead international law enforcement agency lay | 03/05/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: January 6th, 2026 3:52 PM Author: Claret fortuitous meteor trailer park “This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".”
“This market refers to U.S. military operations intended to establish control. President Trump’s statement that they will “run” Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.”
https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-in-2025?tid=1767732697146
https://x.com/trader_53/status/2008545328824549664?s=46 |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:35 PM Author: pearl bateful institution deer antler get a life you fucking dork (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567289) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:42 PM Author: Claret fortuitous meteor trailer park get off this bort you closeted fag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567303) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM Author: pearl bateful institution deer antler you really should do this. everyone here hates you and you are a dick chopping tranny retard pedophile. the world would be better off if you'd just go away once and for all. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567306) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:03 PM Author: Claret fortuitous meteor trailer park you are literally a closeted fag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567363) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 9:45 AM Author: pearl bateful institution deer antler you literally are jewishly projecting yet again. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49568632) |
Date: January 6th, 2026 3:56 PM Author: Mint hall internal respiration i don't see how this can be anything other than "yes". they defined it pretty broadly. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567168) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:29 PM Author: charismatic green fanboi tanning salon LMAO we "controlled" their POTUS into a fucking black bag what kind of bullshit is this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567271) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM Author: Vigorous point It's fraud they need to pay out (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567336) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM Author: razzle-dazzle orchid circlehead The market is about an "invasion." It's about taking and controlling territory. That hasn't happened. It still might by the end of the month. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567449) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:41 PM Author: Contagious locus reading party The US controls the territory of Venezuela. The purpose of abducting its head of state was to establish control of Venezuela. The operation was successful
You are confusing the words "control" and "occupy" |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM Author: razzle-dazzle orchid circlehead Which "portion" (see the definition in the link) does the US control? The US doesn't control Venezuela via an invasion any more than the US uses its power to influence a lot of countries. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567477) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM Author: Vigorous point Polymarket doesn't say the US has to control it with the intent to deprive Venezuela of that territory. Even a peppercorn of time is enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567484) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM Author: razzle-dazzle orchid circlehead The market is for an invasion. The definition requires establishing control of a portion of territory.
Could you point on a map to which portion of Venezuelan territory the US invaded with the intent to control? You're right that it could be a small portion. |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM Author: Contagious locus reading party https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/sites/default/files/styles/oe_theme_medium_no_crop/public/2019-02/venezuela_en.png?itok=aeBbLnHe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567497) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM Author: Contagious locus reading party The entire "portion" of Venezuela. The US controls the country of Venezuela, as a statement of fact, as demonstrated by the fact that it can simply remove its nominal political "head of state" at will, whenever it wants, as it just did (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567492) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:33 PM Author: honey-headed mind-boggling theater stage background story seems like an easy "No". they dont and didnt intend to control any area of Venezuela, they captured its president and are pressuring the current government to do their will. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567286) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:43 PM Author: Claret fortuitous meteor trailer park (Peter Thiel) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567304) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:44 PM Author: awkward hell yes its not like orange man said we run it now (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567305) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:50 PM Author: Laughsome bistre set old irish cottage I say I run Cambodia. They appear to disagree. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567316) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:57 PM Author: Vigorous point Who does Polymarket think is the relevant authority on this? Maduro? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567341) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM Author: Claret fortuitous meteor trailer park usually they say “a consensus of credible reporting” but they removed that language since it would make it harder to screw over their traders (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567356) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:43 PM Author: razzle-dazzle orchid circlehead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567479) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 7:35 PM Author: jade titillating plaza nibblets cr (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567713) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 8:45 AM Author: histrionic ticket booth liquid oxygen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49568504) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:45 PM Author: Cowardly rebellious native IRL Topicality moment (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567307) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:54 PM Author: electric navy gas station patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567330) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:56 PM Author: Marvelous nubile property companies pay a small army of professional wordcels to exhaustively draft out the terms of selling you toilet paper, and they still leave ambiguities. why would anyone ever expect that degens gambling on geopolitical upheavals described in a blurb with no transparency or accountability would be a good idea? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567334) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 4:59 PM Author: Vigorous point It's not vague. The US intended to control Maduro's estate when it arrested him, and the estate is located in Venezuela. Even if the control was only fleeting, it damn sure wasn't unintentional (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567348) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:02 PM Author: Marvelous nubile property (guy who no longer has $1,600) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567360) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:13 PM Author: honey-headed mind-boggling theater stage background story (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567396) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 6:19 AM Author: Pungent public bath gaming laptop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49568389) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM Author: Plum clown It's ambiguous on purpose so they can Jew people over after the fact. It's a feature. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567517) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 6:00 PM Author: Contagious locus reading party (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567526) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 6:11 PM Author: Vigorous point There's no ambiguity. Polymarket made a valid offer. The terms are clear. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567542) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:01 PM Author: Contagious locus reading party Obvious yes
But this is why you don't bet on stuff like this tbh. I wouldn't even put a substantial sum of money on an election on these platforms. You always run the risk of some Jewish bullshit like this |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:33 PM Author: razzle-dazzle orchid circlehead This is a crystal clear "No." What's the counterargument that isn't just based on feelings?
The market is "Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?" And they define "invasion" as "a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela."
Dropping some special ops in for a limited time to extract the president is far from an invasion--i.e., an "offensive intended to establish control over" over territory. If there were boots on the ground to take and hold territory, it would be another thing. But there are not and have not been.
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:35 PM Author: honey-headed mind-boggling theater stage background story cr, not a close call imo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567451) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:37 PM Author: Claret fortuitous meteor trailer park Trump said the US would now run Venezuela. It’s so clear that they even had to address it in their statement screwing people over. There must’ve been a huge whale or polymarket insider on the other side of that trade (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567465) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:45 PM Author: razzle-dazzle orchid circlehead The market isn't what wild things Trump says. (He also said we're going to "lock Her up." Where are we on that?)
The market is for an invasion controlling Venezuelan territory. That hasn't happened. |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:48 PM Author: Contagious locus reading party Narrator: "In fact, it did just happen two days ago." (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567493) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:49 PM Author: Vigorous point This is shitlib semantics. The actual verbiage says "commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela." Trump doesn't have to actually run anything, he only has to commence a military offensive with that intent. Having actual control is sufficient but not NECESSARY to prove intent. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567498) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:54 PM Author: Mint hall internal respiration this. it was a military offensive intended to establish control over caracas generally and at the very least maduro's residence for however long it was necessary in order to capture him.
the issue here is "control" and the time period it takes to constitute it. polymarket thought they were describing something more permanent and substantial, but they didn't spell that out and i think it's hard to argue that landing a bunch of helicopters into maduro's front yard, killing his security guards, and forcibly removing him wasn't taking "control" of his house which is a "portion" of venezuela. "intent" is there the minute you give the order. |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:57 PM Author: Vigorous point Under US law we damn sure exercised control over several acres of land in Venezuela for a period of some several minutes, and not by accident (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567514) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 5:47 PM Author: Vigorous point So Polymarket can call Trump a liar but Hampton Inn can't make DHS pay full price for hotel rooms? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567489) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 6:10 PM Author: Adventurous Meetinghouse are degenerate gamblers actually whining that their gambling platform is being legalistic and dishonest? LOL. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567539) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 7:20 PM Author: Claret fortuitous meteor trailer park the thing is there are people on both sides of the trade so it doesn’t really make sense for polymarket to screw over their users. they’re just a bookie. unless a polymarket insider or whale with connections was on the other side of the trade and pulled some strings. either way what they’re doing is dishonest. at a minimum they should not have titled the market “invade” if sending the military into foreign sovereign territory and arresting its president doesn’t count. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567682) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 7:31 PM Author: talented dilemma bbw If there was a breaking news report that “the us is invading Venezuela” no one would be like “but that already happened”.
The common sense version says this wasn’t an invasion and nothing in their terms is enough to override that. |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 8:15 PM Author: Dead international law enforcement agency lay His house was invaded (briefly) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567813) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 8:11 PM Author: Dead international law enforcement agency lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49567795) |
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Date: January 6th, 2026 8:17 PM Author: razzle brilliant codepig I'm 100% on Polymarket's side here.
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Date: January 7th, 2026 5:48 AM Author: Dead international law enforcement agency lay I was, too, until uh oh convinced me otherwise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49568381) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 7:59 AM Author: Claret fortuitous meteor trailer park Kalishi screwing over bettors on 49ers game
https://x.com/dustingouker/status/2008748429024133125?s=46 |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 8:16 AM Author: honey-headed mind-boggling theater stage background story now this is just a straight up scam (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49568452) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 8:18 AM Author: Vigorous point Is Polymarket still fucking over its users? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49568453) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 10:16 AM Author: electric navy gas station patrolman Just made 60,000 dollars (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49568707) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 10:29 AM Author: Dead international law enforcement agency lay ? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49568727) |
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Date: January 7th, 2026 10:30 AM Author: Mint hall internal respiration i can't believe any lawyer would agree with "no" here. the terms are so broad even a child could make a reasonable argument for "yes". (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49568730) |
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Date: January 10th, 2026 10:01 PM Author: Dead international law enforcement agency lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49579920) |
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Date: March 5th, 2026 1:46 PM Author: Dead international law enforcement agency lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5818025&forum_id=2"#49718047) |