The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
Libs explain how Trump down 5-10 in 2020, now TIED isn't horrible for Kamala?
Poast new message in this thread
Date: September 9th, 2024 10:38 AM Author: balding death wish That's just the reality we're dealing with. Where are the libs to explain how a swing like that is NBD? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5591273&forum_id=2/#48065809) |
Date: September 9th, 2024 10:40 AM Author: Impertinent hell kitty explain how Trump running in an election he lost by 7,000,000 4 years ago isn’t bad for republicans (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5591273&forum_id=2/#48065816) |
 |
Date: September 9th, 2024 10:41 AM Author: excitant costumed school cafeteria he lost by 2pts or less in four swing states, and would have won otherwise. it was a very close election.
when you guys keep touting the popular vote like this are you trolling or are you just retarded? |
|
Date: September 9th, 2024 10:42 AM Author: balding death wish Explain how consistent polling showing him doing better than he did against Hillary Clinton doesn't mean that libs are 100% dun here. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5591273&forum_id=2/#48065833) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2024 10:44 AM Author: swashbuckling garrison regret they will have to resort to full blown ballot harvesting, which means they need to be antisemitic as fuck in order to not piss off the anti-israel leftists who actually do the ballot harvesting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5591273&forum_id=2/#48065845) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2024 10:43 AM Author: swashbuckling garrison regret didn't he also lose using that same metric to HRC? How come she never got to be president? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5591273&forum_id=2/#48065835) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2024 10:03 PM Author: brilliant mexican public bath To be fair,
Are you referring to the 2020 election, where Trump "lost" the EC by a grand total of <50k votes in a handful of states, even though Biden was polling +7.5% above him nationally?
I ask because that stands in stark opposition to the 2016 election, where Trump won the EC by >110k votes in a handful of states because Hillary was only polling +4% above him nationally.
PS: Kamala is currently polling +3% above Trump nationally, and she's trending down. |
|
Date: September 9th, 2024 10:49 AM Author: Motley sapphire cuck address It's not. The bamboo ballots have already been uploaded to the jewish space laser satellite system. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5591273&forum_id=2/#48065872) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2024 10:00 PM Author: black whorehouse tp (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5591273&forum_id=2/#48068240) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2024 11:16 AM Author: contagious hateful sex offender boistinker Polling accuracy might be better or it might be the same but understating harris' support. Dems slightly outperformed in a bunch of key 2022 and 2023 special election races.
I think harris' support might be understated given that people are afraid to admit that the economy is ok. It seems like americans are now conditioned to just shit on the economy if their guy isn't in office (see recent WSJ piece on economy). But once they get in that voting booth, the truth will emerge. |
|
Date: September 9th, 2024 11:21 AM Author: swashbuckling garrison regret you pee sitting down and fart cum from your asshole and yes, the economy is shit. you can't just intentionally manufacture 30%-200% inflation and pretend that people are too stupid to notice when everything all of sudden costs 30%-200% more. the last 3 years have been the largest and most regressive tax increase in American history and people everywhere are feeling it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5591273&forum_id=2/#48066046) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2024 11:32 AM Author: adventurous corn cake DrakeMallard should be here to experience this.
|
|
Date: September 9th, 2024 11:34 AM Author: balding death wish The sadder part is that he is. Without an account, he is like a ghost; forced to watch, and unable to utter a word. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5591273&forum_id=2/#48066123) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2024 11:35 AM Author: adventurous corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5591273&forum_id=2/#48066126) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2024 12:21 PM Author: flirting adulterous home why doesn't that guy just start posting again WTF (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5591273&forum_id=2/#48066262) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2024 12:22 PM Author: Dull indian lodge masturbator (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5591273&forum_id=2/#48066265) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2024 11:51 AM Author: silver dashing chad It's over for board libs. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5591273&forum_id=2/#48066176) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2024 11:58 AM Author: Cerebral friendly grandma The question is effectively how far in one direction will the polling miss be? It’s very hard to know, because we are dealing with a completely reshaped electorate post no excuse mail-in voting being offered in every state that matters. Also, we have two candidates who are completely unprecedented in different but equally meaningful ways. How big is the group of voters that supported Trump in 2020 but refuses to support him post J6/convictions/91 felonies? How big is the group of voters who in the end will never support Kamala because of her race and/or gender? How much will it matter that Trump is the oldest nom ever? Will Trump succeed in tying Kamala to Biden’s record, and is it really his record that drives away swing voters or was it primarily his age and the way he presented in public?
I feel confident saying that the polling error from 2020 will shrink, but if I was Kamala I would still treat the national popular vote like I need to be +3% to win. |
|
Date: September 9th, 2024 12:13 PM Author: swashbuckling garrison regret stfu jewbag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5591273&forum_id=2/#48066241) |
|
Date: September 9th, 2024 9:59 PM Author: Apoplectic internet-worthy athletic conference Not a lib but here's what I'd counter:
1. Polls were much more accurate in 2022 so there's some thinking the anti-GOP balance has been corrected
2. There may be less "shy" Trump voters this go around. I think it cuts both ways - it's obviously good for Trump that Elon Musk, Theo Vonn, Logan Paual, Brittany Mahomes (and vicariously Patrick Mahomes and even Taylor Swift to an etent) are sticking up for Trump in a way he just was not supported in 2016 or 2020. However, the counter is that Trump may have more open support but less secret support... |
|
Date: September 11th, 2024 8:26 PM Author: Voodoo Child (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5591273&forum_id=2/#48078535) |