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XO WSJ: Economic crisis accelerating, expect more pain
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Date: January 23rd, 2024 11:29 PM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs Whoops I meant Biden’s economy is absolutely humming and Americans are feeling the benefits. Cons how mad does it make you that America is thriving when you desire so badly for America to fail?
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The Public May Soon See the Economic Light Perceptions tend to lag behind reality. But inflation has been going down for a while
Now that the Iowa caucuses are over, the feeling that this is a presidential election year is more palpable. It’s a commonplace that economic conditions swing elections. Yet despite economic performance that can only be called spectacularly good, Americans seem down in the mouth about the economy and how President Biden is handling it.
About three months ago on these pages I asked why, and my answer concentrated on the public’s apparent yearning for lower prices, not only lower inflation. Today, without retracting anything I wrote then, I want to emphasize two other reasons: general grumpiness in the electorate and lags in perception about the economy.
Let’s review current economic conditions. The unemployment rate has been hovering near its pre-pandemic low, which was the lowest in about 50 years, for about two years. Inflation, which soared in 2022, has receded into the 2% to 3% range, depending on your choice of index and time period—putting it within shouting distance of the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Net new job creation continues at a rapid pace for a labor market that is around full employment. And the Fed may be on the verge of achieving the elusive “soft landing” that many experts thought improbable a year ago. Income inequality is even shrinking, as low wages rise faster than high wages.
[…]
A fascinating new paper by Stanford’s Ryan Cummings and Neale Mahoney provides statistical evidence for what economists have long believed, and offers estimates of it. The authors estimate that the negative effect of inflation on the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index has historically taken about two years to wither away. In one statistical model, if the effect of inflation on the sentiment index subtracts 10 points this year, it will subtract about 7 points next year, and less than 1 point the year after that.
If that pattern holds in 2022-24 and inflation remains low, sentiment will improve notably this year. It looks as if that’s starting to happen—right on schedule. The Consumer Sentiment Index has soared in the past two months, after being in the doldrums since 2021.
It’s a glimmer of hope. May it continue.
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:45 AM Author: Peach insane affirmative action why haven't you ever poasted in this thread? I thought you liked discussing politics and cheerleading Biden's many economic successes?
https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5433092&mc=170&forum_id=2 |
Date: January 23rd, 2024 11:31 PM Author: Dull electric furnace Articles about how the economy is ACTUALLY doing well are the best sign the economy is fucked. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47323696) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs Makes sense. The stronger the economic indicators the weaker the economy. I remember this from UG too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47323699) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2024 11:37 PM Author: Dull electric furnace When a comoamy's CEO is doing the rounds in the media pushing a narrative that his company is ACTUALLY doing great, do you think that's a sign the company is doing well or poorly? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47323719) |
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Date: January 25th, 2024 9:23 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs I agree with you. The more data there is that suggests X is true, the less likely it is that X is true.
You make compelling points and are definitely one of those super smart MAGA types I so often hear about ;-) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2024 11:33 PM Author: dun territorial scourge upon the earth To be fair,
CR
After a rough few years, the economy had turned around and was "objectively doing great" under George H.W. Bush during his last year in office. Economists generally agree about that.
That's what ultimately saved him in '92, IIRC. Voters eventually came around, they usually do. |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 12:31 AM Author: razzmatazz main people hominid (guy who just makes stuff up)
https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/1993/02/art1full.pdf
I also remember something about a promise to not raise taxes. |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 1:33 AM Author: dun territorial scourge upon the earth To be fair,
You mean the additional factors of how Bush Sr. was viewed as insufficiently ideologically pure by the most hardline faction of his own party, and how a substantial plurality of his own constituents had become markedly dissatisfied with him as a result of various things he had said and various actions he had taken while in office… both of which almost certainly led to diminished voter turnout by his base?
Yeah fair point — that is one important way in which was in a totally different position than Joe Biden finds himself heading into 2024.
*blank stare* |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:33 AM Author: razzmatazz main people hominid Blank stare indeed.
No I mean that Bush said “I won’t do X” and then did X and the media made that his entire POtUSy during his re-elect and it was simple enough that the dumbs who don’t really pay attention could manage to retain it. |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 1:28 PM Author: dun territorial scourge upon the earth To be fair,
Oh OK, so again, all totally different from Biden 2024 for reasons. Got it, thank! |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 6:44 PM Author: razzmatazz main people hominid (dumbest person with access to the TBF CA login) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47326820) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 10:49 PM Author: dun territorial scourge upon the earth To be fair,
Sorry you got blown the fuck out here, Beez. Hey, it happens. |
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Date: January 25th, 2024 9:22 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs She’s been obsessed with this for a while now, fascinating creature.
However she refuses to discuss how her celebrated CYBER NINJAS did in their little “audit.” She has a very short attention span sometimes, very autistically extended attention spans at others. Super interesting from a purely psychological perspective. |
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Date: January 23rd, 2024 11:35 PM Author: Drunken gas station Inflation needs to be negative for their to be any hope. Grocery prices need to fall and they show no sign of it. And why should they- when I go to the cheapo stores like Aldi half the shelves are empty. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47323711) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:53 AM Author: brindle theatre nibblets how can inflation be negative when we're printing money for Jewish wars? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325007) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2024 11:36 PM Author: harsh fuchsia quadroon school cafeteria 'Muh Economy' stories have perennially been divorced from street-level reality, but we've entered uncharted depths of 'Oceania's Wheat Harvest is up 9,000 % comrades' lunacy in the past 3 years. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47323713) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2024 11:36 PM Author: dun territorial scourge upon the earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47323714) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:35 AM Author: Puce Aromatic Jew (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47324908) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:38 AM Author: Peach insane affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47324919) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:40 AM Author: aphrodisiac garnet persian university hey stupid, GDP is up and the experts have confirmed that this is the best economy in us history. now shut the fuck up and go back to your 500sqft apartment you share with 5 other unmarried men. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47324930) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:56 AM Author: topaz people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325021) |
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Date: January 25th, 2024 9:07 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs You mad America is thriving under Joe’s steady leadership? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47328521) |
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Date: January 27th, 2024 6:23 AM Author: Swashbuckling market potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47336115) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 9:59 AM Author: Alcoholic zombie-like filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47345910) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 11:03 PM Author: supple shimmering house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47348959) |
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Date: February 4th, 2024 12:24 PM Author: Alcoholic zombie-like filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47364915) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2024 11:44 PM Author: Soul-stirring Confused Prole Kitty Biden is going to destroy Trump easily (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47323727) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 1:26 AM Author: At-the-ready Hissy Fit still lmaoing@ econ shitheads who consider indicators like "gdp" and "unemployment rates" as anything but irrelevant garbage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47323879) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:44 AM Author: bearded milky stead Did someone hack nyuug's account? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47324948) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 12:04 PM Author: aphrodisiac garnet persian university LOLERCAUSTING HARD HERE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325060) |
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Date: January 25th, 2024 9:02 AM Author: irradiated underhanded volcanic crater meetinghouse Guys in my high school grew the national economy by 2.6% in periods of unprecedented rate increases and geopolitical tension all the time. It was no big deal. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47328503) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 1:32 AM Author: pearly indecent principal's office No idea why pundits think lower inflation rate is what matters.
We just had years of 6-9% inflation (that they'll admit to). Everyone has experienced firsthand that groceries are now 30-50% more expensive than a few years ago. Used cars are still unbelievably expensive. Housing affordability is at the worst level ever recorded. None of this is unwinding fast enough. |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 1:34 AM Author: dun territorial scourge upon the earth To be fair,
Uh, Obeezy is doing “great,” champ. The voters will come around, trust me.
What are you… dumb and poor? |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 1:42 AM Author: Amethyst Sound Barrier Pozpig The reporting on the economy is so far removed from observable every day reality that it reminds me of the the time they described an incendiary riot with a literal raging fire, visible on TV, as a "mostly peaceful protest." (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47323906) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 12:09 PM Author: aphrodisiac garnet persian university obeezy loves to try to pwn me on biden's great infrastructure revolution. it's the same as this. just look out the window. everything fucking sucks and no matter how many times the experts point to gdp or some bridge or boston airport terminal will change the fact that we're all living in america and seeing how shitty things are. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325071) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:35 AM Author: Lavender Home Dog Poop no one is going to vote in November 2024 based on their memory of what inflation was in November 2022.
it just doesn't work that way
for that matter it doesn't really matter what things look like in January 2024 either. just ask George Bush I
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:55 AM Author: exhilarant indirect expression field i am totally sure in 2024 they will have forgot that their healthcare and rent have skyrocketed and have only now increased by a mere 4% (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325016) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:56 AM Author: pearly indecent principal's office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325023) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:57 AM Author: Puce Aromatic Jew I'm sure in November 2024 the economy will be substantially improved compared to now lol |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:36 AM Author: Peach insane affirmative action how is 2%-3% inflation on top of the 30%-200% from 2021-2022 considered at all a good thing? it should be double digit negative. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47324914) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:37 AM Author: Puce Aromatic Jew New normal chud. Dark Brandon is going to take us into a new American century (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47324915) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:42 AM Author: Lavender Home Dog Poop people become acclimated
there was a 6-8 month period where every time my boomer libwife came home from the grocery she'd say "can you believe X was Y dollars a pound!" Every single time. Then at some point she just came to accept that X is Y dollars a pound now, it's no longer something to remark on. |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:43 AM Author: Peach insane affirmative action that's just the Consumer Sentiment Index doing its thing hoss (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47324940) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 9:53 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs Cr we need deflation and we need it now. Here’s Trump’s economic proposal to create deflation (link needed) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47345893) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:37 AM Author: tan federal masturbator Trumpkins don't understand economics (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47324916) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:39 AM Author: Peach insane affirmative action cr. metrics like "consumer sentiment" (i.e. - beating ppl down until they grudgingly accept that their life is shit) are really really important and a sign of a robust economy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47324926) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:38 AM Author: exhilarant indirect expression field Again for the millionth time, the economy is fine is you own your own home as your largest single expense is not experiencing inflation (the opposite actually).
For those who don't own a home yet, congrats inflation is back down to 3% but that home you want is still only up 100% compared to 3 years ago. hehe |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:41 AM Author: aphrodisiac garnet persian university in 40 years we are all going to be treated like the boomers who pulled the ladder up. and they won't be wrong in criticizing us. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47324932) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:54 AM Author: exhilarant indirect expression field and the people will be black and brown and outnumber us. im sure that is going to go well. Look at how well South Africa became after hoards of coloreds become the dominant voting bloc. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325012) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 12:00 PM Author: aphrodisiac garnet persian university when interest rates go back down this year i recommend everyone here finances a 20ft concrete wall around their property. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325046) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 12:01 PM Author: exhilarant indirect expression field and you can repoast this in 10 years except change the word to be *refinance (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325049) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:41 AM Author: Peach insane affirmative action if you bought a house pre-2021 and have a sub 3% mortgage then your housing likely isn't anywhere near your largest expense unless you way overbought at the time. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47324933) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:53 AM Author: exhilarant indirect expression field today no because everything else shot up. even then, people were likely buying with 25-30% of their income going to their mortgage. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325006) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:55 AM Author: Peach insane affirmative action my point is even current homeowners are feeling it. just not as much as the ppl who also can't afford to buy homes. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325015) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:56 AM Author: exhilarant indirect expression field the majority of the inflation in the US has been housing related. so even when it was hitting 8-9%, inflation for homeowners was like 4-5% and like 15-18% for everyone else. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325019) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 12:02 PM Author: Peach insane affirmative action wtf no? everything costs 30%-200% more now. no one would be bitching or even really notice 4%-5%. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325051) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 12:04 PM Author: exhilarant indirect expression field small parts of a person's budget are way up (eating out, travel). most of it isn't up much, with the 1 exception being housing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325058) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 12:05 PM Author: Red coffee pot Wtf, are you flame? Lmao (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325063) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 12:10 PM Author: exhilarant indirect expression field nope. you probably spend way more of your income on stuff like eating out than "normal" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325073) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 12:12 PM Author: Peach insane affirmative action are you retarded or just a total shut in? literally everything costs more now except for flat screen TVs I guess. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325080) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 12:20 PM Author: exhilarant indirect expression field lol ok.
go buy a non name brand shirt or pants. or buy some milk or chicken from the store. its not up 50% hth |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 12:23 PM Author: Peach insane affirmative action chicken is more like 100%-200% (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325143) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 3:20 PM Author: aquamarine tanning salon ceo Place I bought in 2018 was such a steal now I wish I had overbought (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325901) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 4:57 PM Author: Peach insane affirmative action in retrospect, yes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47326378) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:46 AM Author: Puce Aromatic Jew I agree Obeezy, Biden's economy is a beast. It's just too bad people on the ground don't seem to agree. These fucking retards are going to vote Trump AGAIN despite experiencing the best economy the US has ever had? Fucking retards don't deserve Biden. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47324963) |
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Date: January 25th, 2024 9:06 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs Cr! But the MAGA crew loves GC that much, they’re willing to do anything to defend it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47328516) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 11:59 AM Author: topaz people who are hurt Real talk: WSJ does not want a Trump victory under any circumstances. When Nikki Haley had a snowball's chance in hell of getting the nom they were more balanced, but we should fully expect this obvious cheerleading until election day. This, of course, is totally irrelevant because people know perfectly well how they feel about the economy right now (generally pretty shitty). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325042) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 12:07 PM Author: aphrodisiac garnet persian university the wsj neocon class hates trump more than anything. they were riding with ron, then haley, and soon with biden. they want 0% interest and endless gc and that's what the establishments of both parties will give them. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325067) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 12:09 PM Author: topaz people who are hurt More than anything they want endless wars, tons of printed money shoveled to them, and globalist WEF bs. Trump is going to end foreign wars and actually focus on stuff like the border, all of which they completely oppose. So we get these stupid stories. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325072) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 12:11 PM Author: aphrodisiac garnet persian university listening to wsj pods was especially lolzy after 10/7. they went complete mask off and hearing it come straight from their mouths blew my non-existent hair back. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325078) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 2:12 PM Author: topaz people who are hurt Also any article the WSJ has ever written about Ukraine. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325651) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 2:29 PM Author: aphrodisiac garnet persian university the past few years of interest rate hikes and their constant articles about how terrible that is has been so amusing. the editorialism is off the charts. every day front page articles like "WILL POWELL'S RATE HIKE DOOM THE AMERICAN ECONOMY FOREVER?"
it's just such a blatant GOPe neocon rag and they're not even trying to pretend otherwise these days. |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 2:41 PM Author: topaz people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325744) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 2:44 PM Author: aphrodisiac garnet persian university speaking of WEF bs, on a recent wsj pod it literally started with something like "davos has been lambasted as a playground for elite billionaires, but here's why it's actually a good thing..." (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325752) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 2:46 PM Author: topaz people who are hurt They're pretty shameless on this crap. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325757) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 2:51 PM Author: aphrodisiac garnet persian university i'm not sure if it's because i'm getting older/wiser but the bias has become so obvious these days it's impossible to ignore. but i think it's the times changing -- reading news from the 90s and before is almost all facts. the msm bias back in the day was impressive and artful, whereas today it's indistinguishable from weekly world news. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325764) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 3:04 PM Author: topaz people who are hurt No, it did not used to be like this at all. WSJ used to be very dry and direct with commentary being limited to what it means for investors. My sense is that they leave that for some of their other media outlets (MarketWatch and Barrons). I'm embarrassed to say I pay $6/month for all of these.
One of the lulzy things that has resulted from this is that the WSJ now often opines on hard hitting issues like fashion. It has basically become the NYT/Wapo of the "sensible moderate right" (aka GOPe). |
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Date: January 25th, 2024 8:59 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs It’s hilarious you think Biden is more of a GC cuckold than GC don.
What’s your life like? Do you make much money? I have to assume you live a shitty unsuccessful life given how fucking stupid you are. Am I right? |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 2:51 PM Author: metal big-titted haunted graveyard Voters don’t read the WSJ.
Gas is over $3. Heating oil is $4. Natural gas is up 30%. Electricity is up about the same. You can’t eat at McDonald’s for less than $15. Interest rates for house and cars are still high. I just spent $500 at the grocery store, and I did not buy that much or much of anything fancy.
Can the deep state hold off a commercial real estate collapse until after the election. Probably. Are the numbers some version of fraud lies. Yes. For a lot of reasons.
Does any of these fraud lies numbers matter short of an ITE level collapse? No.
Talk to people who work for a living. Contractors are complaining about a lack of work. Union guys are spending a lot of time not on a job. Service industry people are being squeezed even. Everyone complains about grocery prices. Everyone, even people making so much it should not matter because they know what it means for everyone else. This is all relatively new and is not going away before November nor will people forget before November.
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Date: January 24th, 2024 2:51 PM Author: Alcoholic goal in life Tech companies are also firing huge swathes of staff weekly at this point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325766) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 3:14 PM Author: topaz people who are hurt tcr. https://www.wsj.com/business/ebay-to-lay-off-9-of-full-time-workforce-ae6bbc41 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325863) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 3:16 PM Author: brindle theatre nibblets "softer consumer spending"
odd case |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 3:17 PM Author: topaz people who are hurt Nothing to see here, move along...
By the way, the one thing inflation generally should mean is "increased consumer spending" (if everything costs more and you maintain your lifestyle you will spend more). The only reason that wouldn't happen is if consumers can't afford it and therefore have to cut expenses. This happens when inflation doesn't get reflected in incomes or there are major job losses. |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 7:06 PM Author: razzmatazz main people hominid And then prices fall and inflation eases. Sounds like Biden and the Fed deserve a lot of credit for corralling inflation without causing a huge downturn and massive job losses. So far the only people who were fired were email girls and the 12th coder on the team who cheated off his friend in his coding bootcamp. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47326910) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 7:08 PM Author: Drunken gas station Prices are falling in a lot of things but not hard enough and not at all in food which has realized it can stay elevated and people will pay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47326921) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 7:38 PM Author: razzmatazz main people hominid Food at home barely rose 12/22-12/23 and fell if you remove beef. Huge drops in many categories of actual food and rising prices is in categories like frozen fruit juice. Prices in “food” overall are up mainly because restaurants and takeout are up 5+%. Food is also one of the expenses where consumers have many more tools to fight back against rising prices v eg energy and housing where they just have to eat shit.
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/price-of-food
The persisting inflation story is essentially just a housing story where boomers are sitting on SFHs because the rates are up. We will see a bizarre housing market begin later this year because rates will drop but prices won’t rise because more and more boomers (and older) will finally sell and so the supply will be rising quickly from historic lows, but the massive amount of pent up demand will not let prices fall too quickly. Rents will eventually correct but not before late 2025 or 2026. |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 7:39 PM Author: exhilarant indirect expression field Yup.
Homes, cars, travel, and eating out are up. Other things are eh. |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 7:56 PM Author: razzmatazz main people hominid Cars (new and used) are also down like 2-3% from where they were a year ago, but still like 15% higher than 2020. I haven’t seen anyone analyze how much of that is the EV credits subsidizing a higher price point for almost 10% of the market and the corresponding math on total cost of ownership when gas is factored in. Like if you were thinking about buying a 20k Honda Civic in 2020 it was probably economically rational to wait for the EV credit in 2022 and buy an EV for 27k if you’re saving $2500 or more a year in fuel costs. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47327168) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 7:27 PM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs It’s an incredible outcome (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47327006) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 7:43 PM Author: topaz people who are hurt "And then prices fall and inflation eases"
No, they don't. You seem to misunderstand what "inflation easing" actually means. That means prices continue to go up, but less slowly. Inflation of 12% followed by 3% doesn't mean prices go back down to what it would be if it were 3% all along. It means you needed $1.12 to buy what was $1, then it'll cost about $1.15 to buy what was $1. To go back to $1 or even $1.03 you would need deflation and no one is suggesting that this is happening. |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 7:47 PM Author: razzmatazz main people hominid Check out all of these falling prices noted in this link, contributing to a substantial easing in food price inflation:
https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/price-of-food |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 7:48 PM Author: topaz people who are hurt Link doesn't work.
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Date: January 24th, 2024 8:02 PM Author: razzmatazz main people hominid Huh, yeah weird it was when I poasted it above.
This has many of the same data points on food categories: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/10/12/business/cpi-grocery-prices/index.html
This one spoke to my larger point better:
I know you get my point, which is that prices will fall as people adjust their behavior and that’s already happening. If it isn’t happening, then that’s consumers telling the seller that their products were underpriced. |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 10:42 PM Author: Peach insane affirmative action Eat a cock (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47327856) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 8:00 PM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs We will see. People have short memories, smart people don’t blame Biden for global inflation, and the more people see of Trump the more they hate him. He is the best Dem voter turnout machine in history and repels independents.
I have no idea who wins 2024 but I’d rather be in the Dem’s position than the GOP’s. |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 8:08 PM Author: razzmatazz main people hominid The numbers out of Iowa and NH re independents and moderates saying they will choose Biden over Trump and people saying they won’t for Trump if he’s convicted are pretty bad for Trumpmos. Haley won non-conservatives as big as Trump won conservatives yesterday, like by 50+ points. And some 40+% of the electorate in both places is saying either that they won’t vote for him period or they won’t vote for him if he’s convicted. That kind of a massive drop is exactly how we end up with Haley as the nom out of a brokered convention and Trump winning 25% of the vote as a write in candidate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47327221) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 8:10 PM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs Results and other polling does prove Donald is still reviled by Americans with an IQ above 100.
The question is whether his base of poors dumbs and olds can carry the day. It’s possible! Those things are legion. |
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Date: January 25th, 2024 2:17 AM Author: metal big-titted haunted graveyard Everyone forgets. When it gets bad, the petty tyrants end up dead. I believe that is not a good outcome, but one that is certain at some point. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47328250) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 3:15 PM Author: adulterous massive nursing home Things are still like 40 percent more expensive than they were six years ago, so nobody gives a shit about their five percent raise. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47325871) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 7:20 PM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs Yeah the global problem of inflation sucked. I’m just glad we had steady Joe at the helm to guide us through this turbulent period and into what appears to be a truly magical economy.
Go Joe! |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 7:03 PM Author: razzmatazz main people hominid Lol all you cons are fucking shook. This thread reads like libs circa October 2016 convincing each other that Michael Moore is just trying to maintain his name ID because he hasn’t had a big movie in a while. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47326901) |
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Date: January 25th, 2024 9:02 AM Author: fighting wine ticket booth mood No one thinks the economy is doing great retard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47328499) |
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Date: January 25th, 2024 9:05 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs Link? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47328509) |
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Date: January 27th, 2024 6:15 AM Author: Peach insane affirmative action Here's a really long thread about an article covering this exact point that you strangely avoided. I thought you liked discussing Biden's economic successes?
https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5433092&mc=170&forum_id=2 |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 10:05 AM Author: Alcoholic zombie-like filthpig Beez? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47345942) |
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Date: January 24th, 2024 7:19 PM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs Well REAL Americans understand the current economic climate is crash landing (no survivors), as reflected by the precipitous decline in consumer confidence over the last month.
So try as libs might to pretend an economy with a booming stock market, full employment, wage growth, moderate inflation, and solid GDP growth is “good,” AMERICANS aren’t falling for it! |
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Date: January 25th, 2024 2:23 AM Author: Azure Messiness The economy won't be good until I can buy a pound of chicken breast for $1.99, and that's that. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47328257) |
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Date: January 25th, 2024 8:57 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47328491) |
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Date: January 26th, 2024 11:27 AM Author: Peach insane affirmative action why haven't you ever poasted in this thread? I thought you liked discussing politics and cheerleading Biden's many economic successes? https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5433092&mc=170&forum_id=2 |
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Date: January 26th, 2024 12:41 PM Author: razzmatazz main people hominid Lol at you cons clinging to three month old stories to continue the good times of fall 2023. I’m happy for you that you have this to comfort yourself, but don’t wear it out now. Try to make it last the rest of the year. You’re really going to need it next fall. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47333450) |
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Date: January 26th, 2024 10:45 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47332932) |
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Date: January 26th, 2024 10:47 AM Author: fragrant theater stage wrinkle It's insane how easily debunked you are (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47332938) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 9:45 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs The XO WSJ is LYING?!?!? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47345868) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 9:47 AM Author: Peach insane affirmative action since when is it the "XO WSJ" you demented fag? they are GOPe at best. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47345874) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 9:49 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs Pre Trump. Now it’s of course viewed as an unprincipled rag because they don’t fellate Trump adequately per your taste. Lmao bitch bois, so affected (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47345883) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 10:05 AM Author: Peach insane affirmative action you are an insane retard. ppl actually think you are paid to post the shit you spam because it's so fucking transparently stupid. you probably aren't though which is even more sad. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47345936) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 10:14 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs Cr, the XO WSJ is lying about all these positive economic indicators. It’s a CONSPIRACY! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47345972) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 10:17 AM Author: Peach insane affirmative action it's not the "XO WSJ" you insane spamming faggot and having to use metrics like 'consumer sentiment index' to troll for your guy are a sign that things aren't that great (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47345984) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 10:36 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs Cr, in agreeing with you. The WSJ made all this up, and consumers feeling more confident is actually evidence the economy is crash landing (no survivors).
You seem very smart and rational ;-) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 11:27 AM Author: Peach insane affirmative action "the negative effect of inflation on the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index has historically taken about two years to wither away."
great positive indicator right there. people eventually forgetting how things used to be less shitty after years of eating shit. |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 11:58 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs Cr! GDP growth full employment market booming inflation down all while interest rates remain elevated is terrible news for our economy ;-)
We need Trump and his double digital unemployment and market crashes back ASAP! |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 12:00 PM Author: Peach insane affirmative action inflation is still double digits and wouldn't be "down" unless it was double digits negative to offset Biden's intentionally manufactured 30%-200% inflation that he specifically pushed to steal any attempt at wealth accumulation by the lower classes and keep them subservient and reliably 'voting' democrat. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47346300) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 12:38 PM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs Totally double digits!
Btw how did Biden manufacture global inflation? |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 2:49 PM Author: fragrant theater stage wrinkle Holy shit you've been debunked.
What's the point of poasting this 100% confirmed by science debunked spam? You sway no one here. Your handlers money would be better spent elsewhere. |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 10:57 PM Author: Peach insane affirmative action continuing to print money and prolong the pandemic fearmongering well after covid was confirmed to be fraud bullshit
pointless infrastructure spending
billions to ukraine and prolonging that pointless war
forcememing bullshit "clean" energy to the point no oil co with any business sense would invest in american energy and we stop becoming energy independent as a result
allowing black rock and the chinese to buy up all our real estate to further drive up prices and make home ownership unattainable for anyone who didn't buy before 2021.
whatever the fuck they did to the chicken processing supply chain that caused literally every single place that sells chicken wings to start charging $15 minimum for an order of wings
I could keep going. not going to bother getting in with cars and forcememing "EVs" but jfc with that shit |
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Date: January 26th, 2024 11:27 AM Author: Peach insane affirmative action why haven't you ever poasted in this thread? I thought you liked discussing politics and cheerleading Biden's many economic successes? https://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5433092&mc=170&forum_id=2 |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 9:50 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs I’ve enjoyed watching you and Claire hyperventilate over it for months, this is far more gratifying than educating you tbh. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47345888) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 10:05 AM Author: Peach insane affirmative action how many retarded threads have you made/bumped in the last few days? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47345940) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 10:07 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs I’m not sure, but I’m sure how much I’ve made in Biden’s roaring economy in the last three years 😎 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47345947) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 10:12 AM Author: Peach insane affirmative action i'm sure tho you've felt the effects the 30%-200% price increases of everything you need to buy to support your wife and kids who both totally exist btw. family focused ppl like you truly are the backbone of this country. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47345965) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 10:14 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs Yeah the global phenomenon of inflation sucked. I’m glad Biden got a handle on it and now we are doing way better than every other country in the world!
Amazing work by Biden wouldn’t you agree? |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 10:19 AM Author: Peach insane affirmative action it's not a "global phenomenon". it's 100% driven his administration printing money when they didn't have to.
ask RSF, even in shithole socialist Europe stuff is now cheaper than here |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 10:35 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs So cr! That’s why no other country in the world experienced inflation around the same time, and inflation in the US today is way higher than the rest of the world.
Right? ;-) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 10:39 AM Author: Peach insane affirmative action 30%-200% inflation in a 1-2 year period is pretty bad wouldn't you say? and as the only country in the world that matters you would think the United States would have something to do with that also wouldn't you say?
it's almost as if democrats a hellbent on making life as shitty for americans as the rest of the world has had to deal with |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 10:43 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs I’d like to learn more about your position. How did Biden cause global inflation? Did Donald’s massive deficit spending have similar affects or is there something magical about Dem spending that causes inflation while GOP spending doesn’t? 🤔
You seem super smart and educated so I’m confident you’ll have smart answers here ;-) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 11:29 AM Author: Peach insane affirmative action you equate letting people keep the money they earn with 'deficit spending'. you aren't a serious person and can go get fucked. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47346173) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 11:57 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs Guess you can’t answer my questions. Oh well, better luck next time kiddo! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47346281) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 12:02 PM Author: Peach insane affirmative action why do you think people keeping money they earn equates to 'deficit spending'? did you grow up in communist china or russia? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47346303) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 12:38 PM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs I’m just familiar with what the term “deficit” means, and you’re not.
It’s okay. I couldn’t be smart if dumb people like you didn’t exist. So thanks! |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 2:40 PM Author: Peach insane affirmative action you seem to not be familiar with the term "spending". How is people keeping money they earn via the work they do a form of "spending"? pls answer as you have never done so in the past and I am genuinely curious as to how you people think. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47347124) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 3:16 PM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs I’ve not made the claim you’re referring to so I’m afraid I can’t defend it. 🫡 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47347288) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 11:00 PM Author: Peach insane affirmative action you just said deficit spending above
also it's effects, not "affects" |
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Date: January 31st, 2024 12:47 PM Author: dun territorial scourge upon the earth To be fair,
Whoa, it's almost like this guy is a smug self-impressed retard who foolishly thinks he's a genius! ;) |
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Date: February 2nd, 2024 9:55 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs Well, I’m certainly smart enough to believe in very plausible and real things like the cyber ninjas and Kanye west leading a white supremacist revolution.
;-) oh sweet summer child, your naïveté is adorable |
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Date: February 2nd, 2024 9:53 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs Correct. Deficit spending.
You discussed “spending” above. Do you understand yet? I can explain further if you require added instruction. |
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Date: February 2nd, 2024 11:25 AM Author: Peach insane affirmative action cutting taxes is not deficit spending (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47358065) |
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Date: February 2nd, 2024 12:39 PM Author: Alcoholic zombie-like filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47358434) |
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Date: January 27th, 2024 6:24 AM Author: Swashbuckling market potus really need benzo’s take on this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47336116) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 2:37 PM Author: well-lubricated navy fortuitous meteor this is like the tenth mainstream media article about why we should stop worrying and love the economy. but the reason for the pessimism is very simple. it's not that prices or incomes or whatever are so much worse than before, that sort of stuff is just quibbling.
the biggest issue is that the fraudvirus and consequences made americans, even the stupid ones, see that the emperor had no clothes. they saw ppp fraud and ridiculous money printing and gamestop and shiba inu until the numbers no longer seemed real. they saw incompetence and crime and breakdown of social norms everywhere. people previously were boiling frogs about it, and still held on to this idea of american exceptionalism and invincibility in their heads, even if they didn't admit it. but nobody can really fool themselves about it anymore. that's the cause for the pessimism, the faith has been lost. all the arguments about made up numbers are irrelevant. |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 2:38 PM Author: Alcoholic goal in life UPS just laid of 12,000 people. There are basically thousands of layoffs from large companies every day. Something is going to have to give - either the companies in the trenches are seeing slowdows and reacting or the economy is actually fantastic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47347117) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 8:17 PM Author: comical claret resort paypal and block are probably just cutting 10% of headcount apiece bc they want to be “nimble” and “agile” in the face of the tsunami of consumer spending that’s surely coming are way thx to the economic miracle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47348441) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 3:15 PM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs Oh I wouldn’t worry about the pessimism too much. We are on an upward trend in consumer confidence after inflation settled. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47347286) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 8:04 PM Author: dun territorial scourge upon the earth To be fair,
CR, the REAL story here is that the economy is doing great, Americans are in a great spot, and they'll wake up one day soon and realize it and reward Joe Biden for his economic miracles. Just wait two weeks! |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 8:16 PM Author: brindle theatre nibblets cr most americans are just too stupid to know how well theyre doing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47348439) |
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Date: January 31st, 2024 12:47 PM Author: dun territorial scourge upon the earth To be fair,
That's why we're going to have to reinforce and fortify this upcoming election, the problem isn't us, you stupid goys, it's how dumb all of you are. ;) |
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Date: February 2nd, 2024 9:50 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs Ah, our little crybaby is still crying over 2020.
You sad your little CYBER NINJAS found nothing, bitch boi? Ohhhhh the little baby bitch boi is saddddddd |
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Date: February 2nd, 2024 9:49 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs Correct. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47357750) |
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Date: January 31st, 2024 12:10 AM Author: Alcoholic zombie-like filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47349146) |
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Date: December 4th, 2025 10:05 AM Author: Civil Attorney Trump: “we gotta turn this around ASAP!” (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#49482868) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 11:01 PM Author: Carnelian stubborn french chef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47348954) |
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Date: January 30th, 2024 11:14 PM Author: Peach insane affirmative action tbf, gamestop was probably the most rational thing this fraud economy has done in a very long time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47349007) |
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Date: February 2nd, 2024 11:27 AM Author: Peach insane affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47358074) |
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Date: February 2nd, 2024 11:28 AM Author: Lake Hideous Spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47358079) |
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Date: February 2nd, 2024 9:26 AM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs 😎 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47357685) |
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Date: February 2nd, 2024 1:04 PM Author: fragrant theater stage wrinkle Holy shit you've been throughly debunked. John Stewart would be proud (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47358557) |
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Date: February 3rd, 2024 5:21 PM Author: Chestnut locus halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47362867) |
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Date: February 3rd, 2024 7:20 PM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47363223) |
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Date: February 21st, 2024 7:48 AM Author: Shaky background story chad they'll call you an npc before they question why it is they even support a thrice vaccinated octogenarian (who prioritized moving the embassy to jereselum over building the wall). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#47423036) |
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Date: January 7th, 2025 5:13 PM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#48528814) |
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Date: March 10th, 2025 3:35 PM Author: Apoplectic onyx hairy legs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#48733910) |
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Date: December 4th, 2025 10:03 AM Author: Civil Attorney Trump: “we gotta put a stop to this!” (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5480394&forum_id=2/#49482859) |