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ITT: $50 prize for most accurate election prediction (gunneratttt)
Poast new message in this thread
Date: October 29th, 2024 4:22 PM Author: McDonald Trump (gunneratttt) rules:
(1) you must predict the outcome of the seven key swing states (NC, GA, AZ, NV, WI, MI, PA) plus that popular vote via how many points the candidate you choose will win by to the first decimal (e.g. trump +1.5).
(1)(a) predictions must be made for *EACH SWING STATE* in terms of margin of victory as well as the national popular vote. see my vote for an example: https://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&mc=6&forum_id=2#48255079
(1)(b) votes must be made in a top level comment, not a reply.
(2) your final score is based on the cumulative gap between you prediction and the actual result. (e.g. predicted trump +0.3, actual result kamala +1.0 = +1.3 added to your total). correctly picking the winning candidate does not earn additional points.
(3) on the morning of 11/5 i will quote reply to all eligible votes.
(4) revising your prediction is permitted, my quote reply will be considered your final prediction.
(5) the winner will be announced when vote rolls are certified. i will post the winner and award the prize after 24 hours. during that time appeals can be made (e.g. i fucked up the math), however i will be the sole arbiter in selecting the winner.
(6) only recognizable sudos may participate. i will comment if i don't think you're are eligible, and will hear appeals, but will be the sole arbiter of deciding a poaster's eligibility.
(6)(a) i will only comment on your eligibility if you have both made a valid vote and i believe you are ineligible. if you wish to confirm whether your vote is sufficient and you are eligible, you may do so, and i will respond.
(7) i will make a prediction but am ineligible to win.
(8) in the unlikely event of a tie, the prize will be split.
(9) the prize will be in the form of an AMEX or VISA gift card delivered via email on my throwaway. |
Date: October 29th, 2024 4:23 PM Author: infraphysics is hetero fun idea (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48255025) |
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Date: October 29th, 2024 4:30 PM Author: HELLO FELLOW COMMONERS A triumph. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48255057) |
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Date: October 29th, 2024 7:39 PM Author: l3orders This! A rare “Scholarly Triumph.” (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48255866) |
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Date: October 29th, 2024 7:40 PM Author: potluck (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48255872) |
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Date: October 29th, 2024 7:40 PM Author: HELLO FELLOW COMMONERS The Prancing Scholar! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48255873) |
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Date: October 29th, 2024 4:25 PM Author: Juan Eighty GOP: NC, GA, AZ, PA Dems: WI, MI, NV
Popular Vote: Kamala +1.5 |
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Date: October 29th, 2024 4:26 PM Author: MASE https://www.270towin.com/maps/W7vvm NPV: TRUMP +2.1 NC: TRUMP +5.2 GA: TRUMP +4.2 AZ: TRUMP +5.5 NV: TRUMP +2.4 WI: TRUMP +3.2 MI: TRUMP +2.9 PA: TRUMP +4.0 |
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Date: October 29th, 2024 4:37 PM Author: McDonald Trump (gunneratttt) NATIONAL: TRUMP +0.2
NC: KAMALA +0.2
GA: TRUMP +3.7
AZ: TRUMP +3.9
NV: TRUMP +1.4
WI: TRUMP +0.7
MI: TRUMP +1.5
PA: TRUMP +2.9 |
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Date: October 29th, 2024 4:39 PM Author: MASE Ah gotta point the states. I gotta think about it for awhile then. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48255087) |
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Date: October 29th, 2024 4:42 PM Author: McDonald Trump (gunneratttt) ty. yeah i'm planning on revising mine but wanted to make sure i had an example set. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48255093) |
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Date: October 30th, 2024 2:20 AM Author: HELLO FELLOW COMMONERS Bold. NC seems wrong tho. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48257465) |
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Date: October 30th, 2024 11:27 AM Author: McDonald Trump (gunneratttt) this is mostly a placeholder to give an example for participants. planning on adjusting it monday. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48258492) |
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Date: October 29th, 2024 5:26 PM Author: """'""""'' NATIONAL: Kamala +3
Georgia: Kamala +1
Michigan: Kamala +4
Nevada: Trump +1
North Carolina: tied
Pennsylvania: Kamala +1
Wisconsin: Kamala +2
Nebraska-2: Kamala +9
States that are closer than usual: Kansas, Alaska, Nebraska.
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Date: October 29th, 2024 5:28 PM Author: McDonald Trump (gunneratttt) this is the insane libquotemo and has been granted an exception to the recognizable sudo rule
https://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=5618020&mc=129&forum_id=2#48255273 |
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Date: October 29th, 2024 5:31 PM Author: indulgent this is how you do it doobs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48255317) |
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Date: October 29th, 2024 5:34 PM Author: McDonald Trump (gunneratttt) i assume the winner will use a throwaway. if there are multiple claimants i can just email them each something unique and see which one the winning sudo poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48255329) |
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Date: October 29th, 2024 7:28 PM Author: Blackpill Bob (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48255792) |
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Date: October 29th, 2024 7:37 PM Author: Candy Ride (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48255848) |
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Date: October 29th, 2024 7:40 PM Author: maine is 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48255869) |
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Date: October 29th, 2024 7:41 PM Author: l3orders Lmao (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48255878) |
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Date: October 30th, 2024 11:28 AM Author: Cornel West (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48258495) |
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Date: October 29th, 2024 6:11 PM Author: HELLO FELLOW COMMONERS Subject: Updated NATIONAL: TRUMP +1.3
NC: TRUMP +1.7
GA: TRUMP +2.1
AZ: TRUMP +1.5
NV: HARRIS +0.5
WI: TRUMP +0.5
MI: HARRIS +0.7
PA: TRUMP +0.9 |
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Date: October 29th, 2024 6:18 PM Author: maine is 180 180 contest friend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48255460) |
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Date: October 30th, 2024 11:28 AM Author: McDonald Trump (gunneratttt) 180 moniker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48258496) |
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Date: October 29th, 2024 7:15 PM Author: Soren "Bob" Odenkierkegaard (1) Trump 306 EV's Kamala 232 EV's
Trump wins NC, AZ, GA, PA, MI, and WI. Kamala retains NV
Popular vote: Trump +0.1
(1)(a) NATIONAL: TRUMP +0.1
NC: TRUMP +1.2
GA: TRUMP +2.5
AZ: TRUMP +2.8
NV: HARRIS +2.2
WI: TRUMP +0.7
MI: TRUMP +1.5
PA: TRUMP +2.1
(1)(b)√ |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:23 AM Author: McDonald Trump (gunneratttt) why do so few of the politicsmos who spend many hours here predicting the election outcome not want to make a solid prediction for this fun little contest i'm hosting? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48267528) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:27 AM Author: stfu nigger NATIONAL: KAMALA +0.2
NC: KAMALA +0.2
GA: TRUMP +3.7
AZ: TRUMP +3.9
NV: TRUMP +1.4
WI: TRUMP +0.7
MI: KAMALA +1.5
PA: TRUMP +0.4 |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:29 AM Author: MASE Kamala winning NC is lolzy but not bad otherwise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48267564) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 10:09 PM Author: HELLO FELLOW COMMONERS She's not winning NC (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48270145) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 2:28 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe NATIONAL: Harris +3.0
NC: Trump +0.5
GA: Trump +0.5
AZ: Trump +1.0
NV: Trump +1.5
WI: Harris +1.0
MI: Harris +2.0
PA: Harris +1.0
This is from my heart, because I cannot write what I fear may really come to pass. |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 10:09 PM Author: HELLO FELLOW COMMONERS You're going to the chipper. Tick, tock. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48270143) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 10:20 PM Author: askav Don't want the money but:
NATIONAL: TRUMP +0.5 NC: TRUMP +4.0 GA: TRUMP +1.6 AZ: TRUMP +4.9 NV: TRUMP +3.6 WI: TRUMP +0.3 MI: TRUMP +1.5 PA: TRUMP +1.1 |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 10:28 PM Author: HELLO FELLOW COMMONERS Red Tsunami
You forgot to add Senate R 55 D 45 too |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 10:31 PM Author: askav Obviously I'm nervous. Anything can happen. But the blackpill sentiment on XO makes NO sense to me. At all. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48270214) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 10:38 PM Author: HELLO FELLOW COMMONERS I've said this before and I will say it again. This may sound incredibly stupid, but here goes. I believe that something has Happened. In other words, I believe the Electorate has broadly made a concrete decision. We just can't detect it yet and may not even know until a week from now. In the era of smart phones we think everything is knowable instantly, but this is just one of those things where it's impossible to predict the individual opinions of 150 million people writing down a secret answer locked in a box not to be opened until Tuesday night. Nobody knows. It's wholly unknowable.
I think the most likely scenario is that Trump wins the Electoral College. Anecdotally I know normies who have already voted for him who aren't right wing people at all. I think Kamala is a bad candidate and enthusiasm is low. But I could be wrong. Maybe all her people turn out and she hangs on to the blue wall states. My point is I think everyone has decided already and there will be a broad trend across the electorate and I think America will get some closure one way or the other. Yes, Kamala could win, but I think too many working class normies are fed up. Just seems like we're going to get a Big Result next week no matter how long it takes. |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 10:40 PM Author: askav (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48270239) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 10:36 PM Author: Many Cocks Spewing Gallons of Cum This Very Second NATIONAL: Harris +4.1 MI: Harris +2.7 GA: Harris: +1.0 PA: Harris +0.7 NV: Harris +0.5 WI: Harris +0.2 NC: Trump +0.0 AZ: Trump +1.5
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Date: November 1st, 2024 10:41 PM Author: HELLO FELLOW COMMONERS Choke on one faggit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5620460&forum_id=2/#48270242) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 10:42 PM Author: Taylor Swift is not a hobby she is a lifestyle (πΊπΈ π΅π±) NATIONAL: KAMALA +0.4
NC: TRUMP +1.5
GA: TRUMP +2.9
AZ: TRUMP +3.1
NV: TRUMP +1.8
WI: TRUMP +0.5
MI: TRUMP +1.80
PA: TRUMP +0.3
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