The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 12/10/15 |
| Cruel-hearted Space Death Wish | 12/12/15 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 01/02/17 |
| exhilarant range | 01/06/16 |
| Scarlet embarrassed to the bone kitty cat brethren | 01/06/16 |
| Scarlet embarrassed to the bone kitty cat brethren | 06/05/16 |
| garnet dilemma | 03/26/16 |
| Thriller spot | 01/02/17 |
| Razzle regret house | 10/25/18 |
| Honey-headed kitchen police squad | 12/10/15 |
| Trip Abode Generalized Bond | 12/10/15 |
| Provocative athletic conference jap | 12/10/15 |
| Yellow double fault | 12/10/15 |
| At-the-ready legal warrant | 12/15/15 |
| Fishy histrionic milk | 12/10/15 |
| Glittery mentally impaired liquid oxygen | 12/10/15 |
| pale forum dysfunction | 12/10/15 |
| Pungent selfie striped hyena | 12/11/15 |
| soggy rigpig rehab | 12/12/15 |
| Bisexual Resort People Who Are Hurt | 12/16/15 |
| Carmine useless lettuce | 01/04/16 |
| racy flushed genital piercing base | 11/09/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 12/11/15 |
| Ruby Shaky Idiot Library | 12/11/15 |
| Beta Drab Menage | 12/11/15 |
| Pungent selfie striped hyena | 12/11/15 |
| Ocher titillating center | 12/12/15 |
| Crimson whorehouse | 01/25/16 |
| infuriating swollen mental disorder yarmulke | 11/10/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 12/12/15 |
| peach garrison giraffe | 12/12/15 |
| cheese-eating supple filthpig piazza | 12/12/15 |
| Vivacious frozen hominid hunting ground | 12/12/15 |
| cerise apoplectic stage | 12/15/15 |
| plum floppy travel guidebook | 12/21/15 |
| Sick Candlestick Maker | 12/12/15 |
| Aggressive appetizing trust fund sound barrier | 12/12/15 |
| Mint church building fanboi | 12/12/15 |
| diverse iridescent mood | 12/12/15 |
| shivering out-of-control party of the first part old irish cottage | 12/12/15 |
| Orange institution kitty | 12/12/15 |
| Glittery mentally impaired liquid oxygen | 12/15/15 |
| Glittery mentally impaired liquid oxygen | 12/16/15 |
| Drunken university | 12/15/15 |
| motley national | 12/15/15 |
| burgundy hairless native nibblets | 12/15/15 |
| Bonkers casino boiling water | 12/15/15 |
| Contagious point weed whacker | 12/15/15 |
| Mind-boggling Crystalline Home | 12/15/15 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 12/15/15 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 12/15/15 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 12/15/15 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 12/15/15 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 12/15/15 |
| Topaz fantasy-prone stead cuckold | 01/05/16 |
| Crimson whorehouse | 01/25/16 |
| Swashbuckling slimy step-uncle's house round eye | 12/17/16 |
| Citrine pisswyrm box office | 05/18/16 |
| arrogant startled orchestra pit | 08/12/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 11/09/16 |
| Charismatic cocky theatre | 11/09/16 |
| stirring buck-toothed ceo | 11/09/16 |
| Chocolate stage | 10/22/20 |
| Aquamarine location national security agency | 12/15/15 |
| salmon indian lodge | 12/16/15 |
| Laughsome Foreskin Set | 12/16/15 |
| bat-shit-crazy balding lodge new version | 12/16/15 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 12/16/15 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 12/17/15 |
| sepia dead goyim heaven | 12/18/15 |
| exhilarant range | 01/06/16 |
| Bateful Bespoke Nowag School Cafeteria | 12/18/15 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 12/21/15 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 12/21/15 |
| plum floppy travel guidebook | 12/21/15 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 12/30/15 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 12/30/15 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 01/04/16 |
| Carmine useless lettuce | 01/04/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 01/05/16 |
| Crimson whorehouse | 01/25/16 |
| sepia dead goyim heaven | 01/05/16 |
| alcoholic dog poop | 01/05/16 |
| fragrant therapy | 01/05/16 |
| translucent underhanded bawdyhouse | 01/05/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Becky Cuckoldry | 01/05/16 |
| translucent underhanded bawdyhouse | 01/05/16 |
| exhilarant range | 01/06/16 |
| translucent underhanded bawdyhouse | 01/06/16 |
| Aphrodisiac Becky Cuckoldry | 01/05/16 |
| arrogant startled orchestra pit | 01/06/16 |
| plum floppy travel guidebook | 01/07/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 01/08/16 |
| stimulating coffee pot | 01/08/16 |
| plum floppy travel guidebook | 01/08/16 |
| sepia dead goyim heaven | 01/09/16 |
| plum floppy travel guidebook | 01/10/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 01/18/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 01/19/16 |
| sepia dead goyim heaven | 01/21/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 01/25/16 |
| Purple Antidepressant Drug | 01/25/16 |
| Crimson whorehouse | 01/25/16 |
| Purple Antidepressant Drug | 02/09/16 |
| stimulating coffee pot | 09/06/16 |
| exhilarant range | 11/05/18 |
| lascivious address mad cow disease | 01/29/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 02/01/16 |
| Spruce meetinghouse immigrant | 02/01/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 02/01/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 02/07/16 |
| alcoholic dog poop | 02/09/16 |
| disturbing trailer park | 02/09/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 02/20/16 |
| Idiotic Vigorous Church | 02/20/16 |
| Citrine pisswyrm box office | 02/24/16 |
| wine clown | 02/24/16 |
| Jet-lagged dark wagecucks | 02/27/16 |
| Drunken university | 03/09/16 |
| Slap-happy roast beef office | 03/15/16 |
| Provocative athletic conference jap | 03/15/16 |
| motley national | 03/16/16 |
| vermilion tanning salon | 02/24/16 |
| startling fiercely-loyal station | 02/24/16 |
| motley national | 07/21/16 |
| galvanic bright keepsake machete private investor | 02/24/16 |
| Provocative athletic conference jap | 02/27/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 03/02/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 03/04/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 03/09/16 |
| alcoholic dog poop | 03/09/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 03/15/16 |
| Citrine pisswyrm box office | 03/15/16 |
| Tan passionate corner | 03/15/16 |
| lime hospital | 03/15/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 03/16/16 |
| Glittery mentally impaired liquid oxygen | 03/16/16 |
| Charismatic cocky theatre | 03/23/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 03/23/16 |
| Mint church building fanboi | 03/26/16 |
| bronze locale really tough guy | 03/26/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 03/26/16 |
| Topaz fantasy-prone stead cuckold | 03/28/16 |
| Charismatic cocky theatre | 03/28/16 |
| Trip Abode Generalized Bond | 03/28/16 |
| arrogant startled orchestra pit | 08/12/16 |
| exhilarant range | 11/05/18 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 03/28/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 03/29/16 |
| Seedy school philosopher-king | 03/29/16 |
| Seedy school philosopher-king | 03/29/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 03/29/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 03/29/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 04/01/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 04/04/16 |
| Seedy school philosopher-king | 04/15/16 |
| outnumbered half-breed parlor | 04/15/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 04/19/16 |
| painfully honest stag film roommate | 04/20/16 |
| big ticket booth pozpig | 04/20/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 04/24/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 04/25/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 04/26/16 |
| Curious area water buffalo | 04/26/16 |
| cracking blood rage pit | 04/30/16 |
| Clear cerebral chapel | 05/01/16 |
| Clear cerebral chapel | 11/07/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 05/02/16 |
| Charismatic cocky theatre | 05/02/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 05/03/16 |
| Erotic hell marketing idea | 05/03/16 |
| Impertinent Naked Theater Stage | 05/03/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 05/04/16 |
| stimulating coffee pot | 05/04/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 05/05/16 |
| diverse iridescent mood | 05/05/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 05/05/16 |
| startling fiercely-loyal station | 05/05/16 |
| peach garrison giraffe | 05/18/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 05/18/16 |
| Citrine pisswyrm box office | 05/18/16 |
| peach garrison giraffe | 05/18/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 05/29/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 06/20/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 06/29/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 07/14/16 |
| Unholy indirect expression | 07/15/16 |
| arrogant startled orchestra pit | 07/15/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 07/17/16 |
| stimulating coffee pot | 07/17/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 07/21/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 07/22/16 |
| Wonderful cruise ship | 07/22/16 |
| well-lubricated plaza | 07/23/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 07/24/16 |
| Chrome electric shitlib parlour | 07/25/16 |
| Seedy school philosopher-king | 07/25/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 07/27/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 08/05/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 08/09/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 08/12/16 |
| stimulating coffee pot | 08/12/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 08/12/16 |
| flatulent trump supporter | 08/12/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 08/30/16 |
| stimulating coffee pot | 08/30/16 |
| stimulating coffee pot | 09/06/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 09/13/16 |
| Seedy school philosopher-king | 09/14/16 |
| Sick Candlestick Maker | 09/14/16 |
| Rose Arousing Brunch Halford | 09/15/16 |
| Sinister talented nursing home | 09/15/16 |
| Scarlet embarrassed to the bone kitty cat brethren | 09/15/16 |
| Autistic green sanctuary | 09/15/16 |
| chest-beating odious lay faggotry | 09/15/16 |
| Amethyst 180 field | 09/19/16 |
| Amethyst 180 field | 09/19/16 |
| stimulating coffee pot | 09/27/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 09/24/16 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 09/27/16 |
| stimulating coffee pot | 09/27/16 |
| Glittery mentally impaired liquid oxygen | 09/27/16 |
| twisted impressive locus dragon | 10/08/16 |
| Nighttime puppy | 07/29/24 |
| Seedy school philosopher-king | 09/28/16 |
| Sick Candlestick Maker | 09/28/16 |
| stimulating coffee pot | 09/28/16 |
| big ticket booth pozpig | 09/28/16 |
| outnumbered half-breed parlor | 09/28/16 |
| massive exciting shrine | 10/08/16 |
| stimulating coffee pot | 10/09/16 |
| Marvelous scourge upon the earth | 10/09/16 |
| stimulating coffee pot | 10/09/16 |
| Abusive hyperventilating digit ratio circlehead | 10/09/16 |
| Seedy school philosopher-king | 10/10/16 |
| Chrome electric shitlib parlour | 10/30/16 |
| arrogant startled orchestra pit | 11/01/16 |
| Autistic green sanctuary | 11/01/16 |
| Hairraiser organic girlfriend macaca | 11/02/16 |
| Bonkers casino boiling water | 11/02/16 |
| Seedy school philosopher-king | 11/07/16 |
| gay jewess sweet tailpipe | 11/08/16 |
| Seedy school philosopher-king | 11/08/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 11/08/16 |
| Seedy school philosopher-king | 11/08/16 |
| violet mad-dog skullcap dopamine | 11/08/16 |
| sooty cowardly property fat ankles | 11/08/16 |
| Spruce meetinghouse immigrant | 11/08/16 |
| Amethyst 180 field | 11/08/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 11/08/16 |
| territorial emerald site corn cake | 11/09/16 |
| Rose Arousing Brunch Halford | 11/09/16 |
| domesticated patrolman | 11/09/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 11/09/16 |
| Autistic green sanctuary | 11/09/16 |
| territorial emerald site corn cake | 11/09/16 |
| Chrome electric shitlib parlour | 11/09/16 |
| diverse iridescent mood | 11/09/16 |
| boyish theater ratface | 12/03/16 |
| infuriating swollen mental disorder yarmulke | 12/07/16 |
| Swashbuckling slimy step-uncle's house round eye | 12/17/16 |
| indecent skinny woman | 10/11/24 |
| Tantric Associate Dingle Berry | 11/09/16 |
| deep irradiated masturbator prole | 11/09/16 |
| Unhinged Violent Market | 11/09/16 |
| mildly autistic fear-inspiring hall mexican | 11/09/16 |
| boyish theater ratface | 11/09/16 |
| arrogant startled orchestra pit | 11/09/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 11/09/16 |
| peach garrison giraffe | 11/09/16 |
| stimulating coffee pot | 11/09/16 |
| Doobsian gas station | 11/09/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 11/09/16 |
| comical psychic | 11/09/16 |
| Excitant lilac den | 11/09/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 11/09/16 |
| Yellow double fault | 11/09/16 |
| Bateful Bespoke Nowag School Cafeteria | 11/10/16 |
| Purple Antidepressant Drug | 11/10/16 |
| Scarlet embarrassed to the bone kitty cat brethren | 11/10/16 |
| Heady Poppy Business Firm Affirmative Action | 11/10/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 11/10/16 |
| Seedy school philosopher-king | 11/10/16 |
| Idiotic Vigorous Church | 11/10/16 |
| Amethyst 180 field | 11/14/16 |
| fighting senate | 11/14/16 |
| Lavender public bath | 12/04/16 |
| Swashbuckling slimy step-uncle's house round eye | 12/17/16 |
| indecent skinny woman | 10/11/24 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 11/25/16 |
| vibrant filthy state international law enforcement agency | 12/03/16 |
| Abusive hyperventilating digit ratio circlehead | 12/04/16 |
| mustard crusty principal's office useless brakes | 12/07/16 |
| Scarlet embarrassed to the bone kitty cat brethren | 12/07/16 |
| vibrant filthy state international law enforcement agency | 12/07/16 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 01/02/17 |
| Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line | 01/02/17 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 01/02/17 |
| Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line | 01/02/17 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 03/03/20 |
| Scarlet embarrassed to the bone kitty cat brethren | 01/02/17 |
| Charismatic cocky theatre | 01/16/17 |
| Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line | 01/20/17 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 01/20/17 |
| Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line | 01/23/17 |
| massive exciting shrine | 01/23/17 |
| Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line | 01/23/17 |
| harsh pocket flask | 01/23/17 |
| massive exciting shrine | 01/23/17 |
| Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line | 01/23/17 |
| Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line | 01/25/17 |
| Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line | 01/26/17 |
| Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line | 02/06/17 |
| Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line | 02/13/17 |
| Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line | 02/27/17 |
| Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line | 05/03/17 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 05/03/17 |
| Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line | 09/21/17 |
| Provocative athletic conference jap | 01/23/17 |
| Autistic green sanctuary | 02/27/17 |
| exhilarant range | 03/22/17 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 04/17/17 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 05/08/17 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 06/20/17 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 08/10/17 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 10/15/17 |
| Charismatic cocky theatre | 10/15/17 |
| Adventurous ivory idea he suggested french chef | 10/15/17 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 11/06/17 |
| Aromatic | 11/06/17 |
| Beady-eyed | 11/08/17 |
| Splenetic turdskin | 11/08/17 |
| brass multi-colored hissy fit | 11/13/17 |
| Charismatic cocky theatre | 12/18/17 |
| stimulating coffee pot | 12/18/17 |
| Charismatic cocky theatre | 12/18/17 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 01/30/18 |
| Scarlet embarrassed to the bone kitty cat brethren | 06/01/18 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 07/18/18 |
| Charismatic cocky theatre | 07/19/18 |
| chest-beating odious lay faggotry | 09/20/18 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 09/25/18 |
| Trip Abode Generalized Bond | 10/06/18 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 10/06/18 |
| Scarlet embarrassed to the bone kitty cat brethren | 10/25/18 |
| Sinister talented nursing home | 10/25/18 |
| Crimson whorehouse | 11/05/18 |
| Scarlet embarrassed to the bone kitty cat brethren | 11/05/18 |
| exhilarant range | 11/05/18 |
| Scarlet embarrassed to the bone kitty cat brethren | 11/05/18 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 01/08/19 |
| Sickened karate | 02/23/19 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 03/13/19 |
| Crimson whorehouse | 06/24/19 |
| soul-stirring | 06/24/19 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 11/18/19 |
| Autistic green sanctuary | 02/12/20 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 02/12/20 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 03/24/20 |
| Razzmatazz Smoky Gunner | 03/24/20 |
| Unholy indirect expression | 04/04/20 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 04/26/20 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 05/13/20 |
| Unholy indirect expression | 06/05/20 |
| Spectacular Crawly | 06/05/20 |
| Unholy indirect expression | 09/09/20 |
| Autistic green sanctuary | 09/09/20 |
| Honey-headed kitchen police squad | 09/09/20 |
| Coldplay Fan | 09/12/20 |
| Geriatric metal mediation | 09/24/20 |
| soul-stirring | 10/09/20 |
| Charismatic cocky theatre | 10/10/20 |
| Magical | 10/22/20 |
| boyish theater ratface | 10/22/20 |
| Chocolate stage | 10/22/20 |
| Chocolate stage | 10/22/20 |
| Misunderstood silver pistol | 03/23/22 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 10/27/20 |
| exhilarant range | 10/27/20 |
| soul-stirring | 10/30/20 |
| Charismatic cocky theatre | 11/03/20 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 03/22/22 |
| Effete | 03/23/22 |
| Nubile Reading Party Stock Car | 03/23/22 |
| Fortuitous Meteor | 03/23/22 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 07/25/22 |
| Honey-headed kitchen police squad | 07/25/22 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 10/23/22 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 11/16/22 |
| Concupiscible free-loading temple | 04/25/23 |
| peach garrison giraffe | 04/25/23 |
| Geriatric metal mediation | 04/29/23 |
| Nighttime puppy | 05/28/23 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 02/22/24 |
| Geriatric metal mediation | 02/23/24 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 05/23/24 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 08/26/24 |
| Geriatric metal mediation | 09/13/24 |
| Honey-headed kitchen police squad | 09/13/24 |
| Geriatric metal mediation | 10/18/24 |
| indecent skinny woman | 10/11/24 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 11/06/24 |
| diverse iridescent mood | 03/04/25 |
| diverse iridescent mood | 03/04/25 |
| chest-beating odious lay faggotry | 03/04/25 |
| indecent skinny woman | 03/04/25 |
| telephone | 03/04/25 |
| Irate juggernaut | 03/05/25 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 03/07/25 |
| dull degenerate | 03/07/25 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 03/08/25 |
| jet love of her life | 03/08/25 |
| razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus | 03/08/25 |
| Provocative athletic conference jap | 02/18/26 |
| lfo | 05/15/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Cruel-hearted Space Death Wish (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: exhilarant range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Scarlet embarrassed to the bone kitty cat brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Scarlet embarrassed to the bone kitty cat brethren another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: garnet dilemma 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: Thriller spot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: Razzle regret house "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Honey-headed kitchen police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: Trip Abode Generalized Bond 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Provocative athletic conference jap 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: Yellow double fault Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: At-the-ready legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: Fishy histrionic milk FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Glittery mentally impaired liquid oxygen Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: pale forum dysfunction Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Pungent selfie striped hyena (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: soggy rigpig rehab Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Bisexual Resort People Who Are Hurt Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Carmine useless lettuce Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Pungent selfie striped hyena November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: cheese-eating supple filthpig piazza lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Vivacious frozen hominid hunting ground March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: cerise apoplectic stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: plum floppy travel guidebook 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: Sick Candlestick Maker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: Aggressive appetizing trust fund sound barrier lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: Mint church building fanboi (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: shivering out-of-control party of the first part old irish cottage Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Orange institution kitty Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Glittery mentally impaired liquid oxygen OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Glittery mentally impaired liquid oxygen And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: Drunken university 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: motley national fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: burgundy hairless native nibblets I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: Bonkers casino boiling water 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Contagious point weed whacker February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: Mind-boggling Crystalline Home You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Topaz fantasy-prone stead cuckold (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Crimson whorehouse Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Swashbuckling slimy step-uncle's house round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: Citrine pisswyrm box office (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: arrogant startled orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Charismatic cocky theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: stirring buck-toothed ceo Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Chocolate stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Aquamarine location national security agency This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: salmon indian lodge 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: Laughsome Foreskin Set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: bat-shit-crazy balding lodge new version Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: sepia dead goyim heaven (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: exhilarant range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Bateful Bespoke Nowag School Cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: plum floppy travel guidebook 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Carmine useless lettuce flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Crimson whorehouse Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: sepia dead goyim heaven From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: alcoholic dog poop 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: fragrant therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: translucent underhanded bawdyhouse An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Becky Cuckoldry 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: translucent underhanded bawdyhouse I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: exhilarant range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: translucent underhanded bawdyhouse Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Becky Cuckoldry No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: arrogant startled orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: plum floppy travel guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: stimulating coffee pot 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: plum floppy travel guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: sepia dead goyim heaven http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: plum floppy travel guidebook (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: sepia dead goyim heaven looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29677719) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: exhilarant range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Seedy school philosopher-king "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Seedy school philosopher-king interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: outnumbered half-breed parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30279158) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: Clear cerebral chapel Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: Clear cerebral chapel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: Charismatic cocky theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM Author: Impertinent Naked Theater Stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30402170) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: diverse iridescent mood Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: startling fiercely-loyal station Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: peach garrison giraffe This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Citrine pisswyrm box office In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: peach garrison giraffe cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: Unholy indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: arrogant startled orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: stimulating coffee pot 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: Wonderful cruise ship (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: well-lubricated plaza Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Chrome electric shitlib parlour Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Seedy school philosopher-king amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: stimulating coffee pot holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: flatulent trump supporter LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: stimulating coffee pot 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: stimulating coffee pot lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Seedy school philosopher-king ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Sick Candlestick Maker Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Rose Arousing Brunch Halford September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Sinister talented nursing home September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Scarlet embarrassed to the bone kitty cat brethren god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Autistic green sanctuary XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: chest-beating odious lay faggotry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Amethyst 180 field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Amethyst 180 field The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: stimulating coffee pot let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: stimulating coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Glittery mentally impaired liquid oxygen This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: twisted impressive locus dragon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Nighttime puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Seedy school philosopher-king http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Sick Candlestick Maker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: stimulating coffee pot 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: big ticket booth pozpig This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: outnumbered half-breed parlor (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: massive exciting shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: stimulating coffee pot hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Marvelous scourge upon the earth Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: stimulating coffee pot doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Abusive hyperventilating digit ratio circlehead half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Seedy school philosopher-king nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Chrome electric shitlib parlour close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: arrogant startled orchestra pit Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Autistic green sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Hairraiser organic girlfriend macaca (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: Bonkers casino boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Seedy school philosopher-king prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: gay jewess sweet tailpipe You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Seedy school philosopher-king true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Seedy school philosopher-king ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: violet mad-dog skullcap dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: sooty cowardly property fat ankles Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Spruce meetinghouse immigrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Amethyst 180 field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: territorial emerald site corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Rose Arousing Brunch Halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: domesticated patrolman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Autistic green sanctuary GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: territorial emerald site corn cake (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Chrome electric shitlib parlour it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: diverse iridescent mood (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: boyish theater ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: infuriating swollen mental disorder yarmulke (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Swashbuckling slimy step-uncle's house round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: indecent skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Tantric Associate Dingle Berry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: deep irradiated masturbator prole Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: Unhinged Violent Market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: mildly autistic fear-inspiring hall mexican 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: boyish theater ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: arrogant startled orchestra pit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: peach garrison giraffe this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: stimulating coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: Doobsian gas station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: comical psychic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Excitant lilac den (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Yellow double fault you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Bateful Bespoke Nowag School Cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: Purple Antidepressant Drug Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Scarlet embarrassed to the bone kitty cat brethren bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: Heady Poppy Business Firm Affirmative Action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Seedy school philosopher-king ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Idiotic Vigorous Church (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Amethyst 180 field (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: fighting senate They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: Lavender public bath Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Swashbuckling slimy step-uncle's house round eye (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: indecent skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: vibrant filthy state international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Abusive hyperventilating digit ratio circlehead GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: mustard crusty principal's office useless brakes https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Scarlet embarrassed to the bone kitty cat brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: vibrant filthy state international law enforcement agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Scarlet embarrassed to the bone kitty cat brethren truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Charismatic cocky theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: massive exciting shrine TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: harsh pocket flask I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: massive exciting shrine it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: Bearded Dashing Personal Credit Line https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Provocative athletic conference jap this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Autistic green sanctuary One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: exhilarant range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Charismatic cocky theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Adventurous ivory idea he suggested french chef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: Aromatic credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Beady-eyed (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Splenetic turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: brass multi-colored hissy fit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Charismatic cocky theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: stimulating coffee pot Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Charismatic cocky theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Scarlet embarrassed to the bone kitty cat brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Charismatic cocky theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: chest-beating odious lay faggotry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: Trip Abode Generalized Bond It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Scarlet embarrassed to the bone kitty cat brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: Sinister talented nursing home Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Crimson whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Scarlet embarrassed to the bone kitty cat brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: exhilarant range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Scarlet embarrassed to the bone kitty cat brethren (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: Sickened karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Crimson whorehouse There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: soul-stirring (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Autistic green sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Razzmatazz Smoky Gunner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: Unholy indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: Unholy indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: Spectacular Crawly (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: Unholy indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Autistic green sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Honey-headed kitchen police squad Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: Coldplay Fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: Geriatric metal mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: soul-stirring (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Charismatic cocky theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: Magical (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: boyish theater ratface (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: Chocolate stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: Chocolate stage https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: Misunderstood silver pistol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: exhilarant range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: soul-stirring (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Charismatic cocky theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Effete (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: Nubile Reading Party Stock Car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Fortuitous Meteor 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Honey-headed kitchen police squad A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: Concupiscible free-loading temple https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: peach garrison giraffe why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: Geriatric metal mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Nighttime puppy FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: Geriatric metal mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: Geriatric metal mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Honey-headed kitchen police squad One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: Geriatric metal mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: indecent skinny woman (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: diverse iridescent mood 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: diverse iridescent mood https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: chest-beating odious lay faggotry Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: indecent skinny woman The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: telephone He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: Irate juggernaut (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: dull degenerate 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: jet love of her life Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: razzle-dazzle crackhouse potus Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: Provocative athletic conference jap (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: lfo ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |