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You guys do realize Trump has already won Nevada right?
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:19 AM Author: MASE Even Jon Ralston is admitting it. R's have a 40k+ EV lead, an insane 100k swing from 2020. There aren't enough Dem ballots on election day to overcome it.
Very good chance Nevada is called as soon as polls close on Tuesday. |
Date: November 1st, 2024 11:19 AM Author: ...,,...,.,..,.,.,.,.,.,., NV doesn't matter. He needs one of WI/MI/PA. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267509) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:27 AM Author: peeface (insert link to Downfall video) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267550) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:27 AM Author: MASE I'm sure Trump winning the state that was hardest for him to win will have zero impact on the rest of the electoral map. :) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267552) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 12:20 PM Author: Sickly argumentative UES Jew in puffy jacket Yep, now all three of those better hold for Kams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267832) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:20 AM Author: l3orders Doesn’t matter. Trump lost GA, PA and most likely MI, and WI. This is going to be a fuckin landslide for Harris. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267512) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:27 AM Author: MASE Date: November 1st, 2024 11:20 AM Author: l3orders
Doesn’t matter. Trump lost GA, PA and most likely MI, and WI. This is going to be a fuckin landslide for Harris.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2#48267512) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:32 AM Author: ceci n'est pas un avocat I'm hearing this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267576) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:22 AM Author: AZNgirl early voting all AZNmen off Planet Earth 26% of early voting is by "other" trumpkin so seems like voters who are independent or not GOP/DEM
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/nevada-results
no one has any idea how the furk they voted but that is going to be decisive... maybe u can find data on this from last election but it seems 26% is furking insanely high for "other"... in PA its only 10%
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:32 AM Author: "'''''"'""'''"'"' Is this just because some states require you to choose party registration, while others do it when you vote in a primary or something?
And I have a hard time believing independents swing Kamala. Those are much more likely to be RFK, third party, Jill Stein type people |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 12:25 PM Author: AZNgirl early voting all AZNmen off Planet Earth from what ive read "independents" are retarded and its usually pretty even (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267861) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:22 AM Author: :;:;;;:;:;;;:;:;:;:; Jon Ralston, last night: “It’s not over.” (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267522) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:27 AM Author: MASE Narrator: "It's over" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267544) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:39 AM Author: :;:;;;:;:;;;:;:;:;:; Okay, but you’re objectively lying about what Ralston is saying. Why lie? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267633) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:30 AM Author: LathamTouchedMe It’s still hard to tell how it will end. Cortez-maestro won in 2022 with a deficit in early voting. Everyone looked at 2020 early voting stats and expected she was going to get trounced. The reality is that GOP has shifted to way more early voting in most places, especially Nevada so their Election Day voting advantage isn’t that strong. What will decide the election is how the “others” break since they’re such a huge block. For Cortez-maestro she had enough of a margin with them to overcome the GOP advantage built up in early voting. In person early voting ends today but the mail which favors dems keeps coming for another week. So the GOP early vote margin will, percentage wise, probably look like the 2022 margin. We’re probably headed to a tight finish with “others” deciding the race.
Edit: wrong data. see below |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:33 AM Author: "'''''"'""'''"'"' If Trump isn't on the ballot, the Let's Go Brandon type MAGA people aren't going to show (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267583) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:34 AM Author: peeface huh? the DNC had a significant advantage in advance voting 5 days out in 2020. now the GOP does. this is retcon cope.
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:41 AM Author: LathamTouchedMe correct. But in 2022 the situation reversed and the gop had the early vote advantage. early vote percentage had swung 4% in gop's favor from 2020. Everyone expected she was toast but it was really just a change in voting patterns (more gop voting early instead of election day). How others/unaffiliated break will decide the nevada election. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267638) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:51 AM Author: peeface if it is 'correct' why quote-post a guy claiming something you know is false?
making a comparison to a year without Trump on the ballot doesn't make a ton of sense... but also...
what you say is also false. the GOP was not leading 5 days out in 2022, the DNC was. this is the first time the GOP has been ahead in advance voting in Nevada in a very long time.
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Date: November 1st, 2024 12:17 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe I apologize. See below. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267815) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:35 AM Author: l3orders Who the fuck is “Cortez-Maestro” lmao? The FOAM MISTRO? You Americans are off the charts with mental illness. Fuck off. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267593) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:35 AM Author: l3orders pwnd (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267599) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:37 AM Author: LathamTouchedMe my phone autocorrected (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267608) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:41 AM Author: ....,,....,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.......,.,.,.,.,..,. That's not right. Per Ralston, 2022 EV was roughly Dem +10k (Clark: +39k; Washoe: +1.5k; rurals: -30k). Right now it's Dem -44.5k (Clark: +8; Washoe: -8k; rurals: -44k). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267636) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 12:17 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe yeah that's right. I was looking at the wrong state on targetsmart. The swing went 3% dem early vote advantage in 2020 to a 1.4% early vote advantage at the end of 2022. 4 days out from election day she was up 2k votes early. That lead expanded as early in-vote ended. She won by 0.8%. Assuming the same trend and same "other" vote share, it would be a narrow loss for Harris. Harris needs a bigger late break in mail voting than Cortez or more "other" and GOP to vote for her. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267811) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:35 AM Author: ..,,....,,.,..,,..,,...,...,,....,..., Is this true? Wouldn't that be very good for Trump? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267595) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:36 AM Author: MASE Very insightful! It is indeed very good for Trump. One might say it's even predictive. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267602) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:37 AM Author: l3orders NV is like saying a shitty team should win the Super Bowl bc they won a pre season game (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267610) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:39 AM Author: MASE Nah it's like beating the Chiefs and then saying you have a high probability of beating the Browns. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267621) |
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Date: November 1st, 2024 11:41 AM Author: """'""""'' great consolation prize MASE! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5622463&forum_id=2/#48267635) |