First, I will assume that Trump voters are not less likely to turn out in 2024 than they were in 2020. We have a more energetic Presidential campaign, better messaging, a much better run state party (credit to Chairman and the county party chairs), and a much tighter gubernatorial race (VOTE !). I have not seen anything in my travels around Washington, at the RNC in Milwaukee, or on the Internet that makes me genuinely believe that. Every single person other than actual Democrat Party candidates/operatives claiming Trump has an enthusiasm gap needs to be audited by the Federal Elections Commission because they're sure taking money from someone.

Second, I will assume that Democrats tend to vote earlier than Republicans do, on average. Washington does not publish data on this so this assumption necessarily relies on comparisons to other states, which is a bit weaker, but I have not seen one state where Republicans ever weight their voting earlier rather than on Election Day, not even California.

With those assumptions disclosed, let's look at the numbers compared to 2020. In 2020, the state of Washington recorded 2,369,612 votes for Joe Biden and 1,584,651 votes for Donald Trump. As of four days (Friday) before the election in 2020, there were 3,176,060 ballots returned, compared to 2,362,291 ballots as of this past Friday, November 1st, 2024.

Let's ask our friend Python 3 to run those numbers.

>>> (3176060 - 2362291) / (2369612 - 1584651)

1.0366999124797283

The turnout collapse in Washington exceeds the margin of the 2020 election. Assuming no statistically significant decline in Trump voters relative to 2020, no suspicious 3am drop of 800,000 ballots, and that more Trump voter ballots will trickle in through Tuesday, Trump wins the state of Washington.

This also strongly suggests all four ballot initiatives will pass.

If these results replicate across the country we're looking at an extinction level event for Democrats.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624766&forum_id=2/#48281714)

Author: animeboi (.)

OK I've seen a few people posting Washington Secretary of State ballot data, so I'm going to call it: Trump will flip the state of Washington, rendering all the east coast and Great Lakes swing state drama completely irrelevant.

First, I will assume that Trump voters are not less likely to turn out in 2024 than they were in 2020. We have a more energetic Presidential campaign, better messaging, a much better run state party (credit to Chairman and the county party chairs), and a much tighter gubernatorial race (VOTE !). I have not seen anything in my travels around Washington, at the RNC in Milwaukee, or on the Internet that makes me genuinely believe that. Every single person other than actual Democrat Party candidates/operatives claiming Trump has an enthusiasm gap needs to be audited by the Federal Elections Commission because they're sure taking money from someone.

Second, I will assume that Democrats tend to vote earlier than Republicans do, on average. Washington does not publish data on this so this assumption necessarily relies on comparisons to other states, which is a bit weaker, but I have not seen one state where Republicans ever weight their voting earlier rather than on Election Day, not even California.

With those assumptions disclosed, let's look at the numbers compared to 2020. In 2020, the state of Washington recorded 2,369,612 votes for Joe Biden and 1,584,651 votes for Donald Trump. As of four days (Friday) before the election in 2020, there were 3,176,060 ballots returned, compared to 2,362,291 ballots as of this past Friday, November 1st, 2024.

Let's ask our friend Python 3 to run those numbers.

>>> (3176060 - 2362291) / (2369612 - 1584651)

1.0366999124797283

The turnout collapse in Washington exceeds the margin of the 2020 election. Assuming no statistically significant decline in Trump voters relative to 2020, no suspicious 3am drop of 800,000 ballots, and that more Trump voter ballots will trickle in through Tuesday, Trump wins the state of Washington.

This also strongly suggests all four ballot initiatives will pass.

If these results replicate across the country we're looking at an extinction level event for Democrats.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624766&forum_id=2#48281714)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624766&forum_id=2/#48281728)

Author: \"''"\'"\'\"\''"\'

Date: November 4th, 2024 3:56 PM

Author: animeboi (.)

OK I've seen a few people posting Washington Secretary of State ballot data, so I'm going to call it: Trump will flip the state of Washington, rendering all the east coast and Great Lakes swing state drama completely irrelevant.

First, I will assume that Trump voters are not less likely to turn out in 2024 than they were in 2020. We have a more energetic Presidential campaign, better messaging, a much better run state party (credit to Chairman and the county party chairs), and a much tighter gubernatorial race (VOTE !). I have not seen anything in my travels around Washington, at the RNC in Milwaukee, or on the Internet that makes me genuinely believe that. Every single person other than actual Democrat Party candidates/operatives claiming Trump has an enthusiasm gap needs to be audited by the Federal Elections Commission because they're sure taking money from someone.

Second, I will assume that Democrats tend to vote earlier than Republicans do, on average. Washington does not publish data on this so this assumption necessarily relies on comparisons to other states, which is a bit weaker, but I have not seen one state where Republicans ever weight their voting earlier rather than on Election Day, not even California.

With those assumptions disclosed, let's look at the numbers compared to 2020. In 2020, the state of Washington recorded 2,369,612 votes for Joe Biden and 1,584,651 votes for Donald Trump. As of four days (Friday) before the election in 2020, there were 3,176,060 ballots returned, compared to 2,362,291 ballots as of this past Friday, November 1st, 2024.

Let's ask our friend Python 3 to run those numbers.

>>> (3176060 - 2362291) / (2369612 - 1584651)

1.0366999124797283

The turnout collapse in Washington exceeds the margin of the 2020 election. Assuming no statistically significant decline in Trump voters relative to 2020, no suspicious 3am drop of 800,000 ballots, and that more Trump voter ballots will trickle in through Tuesday, Trump wins the state of Washington.

This also strongly suggests all four ballot initiatives will pass.

If these results replicate across the country we're looking at an extinction level event for Democrats.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624766&forum_id=2#48281714)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5624766&forum_id=2/#48281764)