Hypo: Trump wins, Senate stays D, Clarance Thomas dies shortly thereafter
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Date: June 21st, 2024 4:12 PM Author: Cerise trip spot
Trump/GOP will hold out until 2027 to see if they can flip the Senate.
If not, Trump will just say "fuck it" and appoint someone with just the consent of the Senate Minority and get his AG to sign off on it.
Constitution just requires the "Advice & Consent" of the Senate. What can the DEMS do if Trump just accepts the "advice & consent" of half of Senate and appoints anyways?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5543615&forum_id=2/#47766973) |
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Date: June 21st, 2024 5:01 PM Author: Motley adulterous point
(1) Would effectively require the Rs to have the House of Representatives (making this hypo even more unlikely), as Senate Ds would use pro forma sessions to prevent recess appts, and POTUS's power to adjourn them by force requires disagreement between the two houses.
(2) Recess appointments are obviously temporary (they expire if they aren't confirmed by the end of the congress, so two years max), but what I don't know is whether the Senate can boot you pre-sine die by affirmatively no-voting you. (I don't know if this has been decided at all.) Either way, would be 180^180 to have Interim Justice Kacsmaryk write the Court's 5-4 decision overturning gay marriage ("But we agree with the Obergefell majority, and disagree with its dissenters, on the most important point: the Constitution does speak directly to same-sex 'marriage.' Looking to the history and text of the document, we find that the Founders would have been repelled by the idea of the matrimonial union of Man and Man, and their cherished document must be understood as implicitly prohibiting legal recognition of such arrangements....")
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5543615&forum_id=2/#47767118) |
Date: June 21st, 2024 4:38 PM Author: Motley adulterous point
There's like zero chance of TRUMP winning and senate staying D.
But accepting the hypo, I think (a) TRUMP appoints either a standard hardliner or, at worst/best (depending on your perspective), a righty with a little bit of moderate street cred (the R version of obama's merrick garland pick); (b) Dems rightly refuse to confirm; (c) TRUMP waits out the midterm; (d) if Rs flip the senate in 2026, obviously they confirm who they want (most interesting question here is, if they went with conservative merrick garland initially, do they swap him out for a Kacsmaryk type); but (e) if they don't flip the senate, they probably try to work out a real compromise -- to me, an OLD AS FUCK con makes more sense than a moderate R (it's what I'd want from Ds if they were in this position) -- and probably fail to do so, because, bear in mind, the Dem senate leadership will feel like their behavior in obstructing through 2 years was rewarded by keeping the senate in '26, so why change course?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5543615&forum_id=2/#47767058) |
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