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Can someone confirm my understanding of political polls?
| ceci n'est pas un avocat | 11/07/24 |
| completely deranged lunatic | 11/07/24 |
| ceci n'est pas un avocat | 11/07/24 |
| completely deranged lunatic | 11/07/24 |
| law discussion | 11/07/24 |
| ceci n'est pas un avocat | 11/07/24 |
| ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, | 11/07/24 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: November 7th, 2024 10:42 AM Author: ceci n'est pas un avocat It's a known issue that Democrats are more likely to respond to polls than Republicans. So pollers adjust for this by adding in imaginary Republicans.
But if Republicans don't respond, the pollers have no idea how many Republicans aren't responding. You can't quantify a negative. So their adjustments are ultimately just guesses. They are making up a voting public and then assigning numbers based on that.
Is this even vaguely correct? |
Date: November 7th, 2024 10:48 AM Author: completely deranged lunatic yeah it's just totally made up
also the people doing it are genuinely unintelligent and their arbitrary made up methods don't even incorporate basic common sense thought about how to most accurately capture information about voting trends from talking to people
https://x.com/mbateman/status/1854278584338436386
like this french guy just won $40 million on polymarket this election by paying these *same pollsters* to do their same polling, only using the 'neighbor poll' method, which is obviously going to give more accurate results. why aren't they already doing this as part of their polling? who knows (they're stupid) |
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Date: November 7th, 2024 10:50 AM Author: ceci n'est pas un avocat That's wild
I thought the whole problem with the prediction markets is that there were strict limits on how much you could bet. Is that no longer true? |
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Date: November 7th, 2024 10:53 AM Author: completely deranged lunatic i don't know, i don't use them. but you could always make a bunch of different accounts if you really wanted to (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5629436&forum_id=2/#48305300) |
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Date: November 7th, 2024 10:51 AM Author: law discussion My limited understanding is that it’s all just completely made up whole-cloth for propaganda purposes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5629436&forum_id=2/#48305289) |
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Date: November 7th, 2024 10:51 AM Author: ceci n'est pas un avocat That seems like the Occam's razor explanation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5629436&forum_id=2/#48305292) |
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Date: November 7th, 2024 10:52 AM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, they are for manipulation of the public. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5629436&forum_id=2/#48305293) |