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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| navy dingle berry depressive | 12/10/15 |
| adventurous lavender hairy legs | 12/12/15 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 01/02/17 |
| Avocado useless jewess | 01/06/16 |
| poppy mewling really tough guy | 01/06/16 |
| poppy mewling really tough guy | 06/05/16 |
| mahogany plaza ladyboy | 03/26/16 |
| Razzmatazz alcoholic party of the first part | 01/02/17 |
| Bateful kitty cat senate | 10/25/18 |
| Hairraiser Flirting Field Blood Rage | 12/10/15 |
| marvelous outnumbered area | 12/10/15 |
| Fluffy talented useless brakes | 12/10/15 |
| Galvanic abusive jew | 12/10/15 |
| startling ebony address coldplay fan | 12/15/15 |
| Gold Appetizing Hall Mad-dog Skullcap | 12/10/15 |
| Slimy public bath | 12/10/15 |
| Floppy bistre toilet seat spot | 12/10/15 |
| Concupiscible obsidian forum scourge upon the earth | 12/11/15 |
| Turquoise infuriating yarmulke | 12/12/15 |
| jet-lagged hyperactive reading party | 12/16/15 |
| Vibrant sticky base | 01/04/16 |
| rough-skinned idea he suggested | 11/09/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 12/11/15 |
| chocolate background story place of business | 12/11/15 |
| Chartreuse menage | 12/11/15 |
| Concupiscible obsidian forum scourge upon the earth | 12/11/15 |
| iridescent indirect expression water buffalo | 12/12/15 |
| heady translucent rehab pozpig | 01/25/16 |
| balding talking telephone | 11/10/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 12/12/15 |
| odious brethren nursing home | 12/12/15 |
| sinister theatre puppy | 12/12/15 |
| Opaque wonderful boistinker | 12/12/15 |
| glassy boltzmann pit | 12/15/15 |
| fiercely-loyal range | 12/21/15 |
| Hairless Hospital Dopamine | 12/12/15 |
| Sick angry stage | 12/12/15 |
| Very tactful violent den personal credit line | 12/12/15 |
| mind-boggling lay | 12/12/15 |
| Aphrodisiac cruise ship | 12/12/15 |
| Stimulating wine volcanic crater | 12/12/15 |
| Slimy public bath | 12/15/15 |
| Slimy public bath | 12/16/15 |
| cerebral cream police squad | 12/15/15 |
| Khaki disgusting station goyim | 12/15/15 |
| Razzle-dazzle Federal Organic Girlfriend Incel | 12/15/15 |
| flushed halford | 12/15/15 |
| bat-shit-crazy greedy bbw lodge | 12/15/15 |
| razzle bat shit crazy site | 12/15/15 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 12/15/15 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 12/15/15 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 12/15/15 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 12/15/15 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 12/15/15 |
| Glittery painfully honest main people headpube | 01/05/16 |
| heady translucent rehab pozpig | 01/25/16 |
| Lime turdskin | 12/17/16 |
| Buff Gay Wizard | 05/18/16 |
| Flesh Swollen Rigpig | 08/12/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 11/09/16 |
| Splenetic office nibblets | 11/09/16 |
| Scarlet rebellious friendly grandma | 11/09/16 |
| vivacious disturbing university | 10/22/20 |
| Stirring drab heaven gaming laptop | 12/15/15 |
| dun curious state coffee pot | 12/16/15 |
| grizzly set | 12/16/15 |
| Racy black woman | 12/16/15 |
| Slate french shrine | 12/16/15 |
| Slate french shrine | 12/17/15 |
| laughsome territorial garrison | 12/18/15 |
| Avocado useless jewess | 01/06/16 |
| Green deep stock car corner | 12/18/15 |
| Slate french shrine | 12/21/15 |
| Slate french shrine | 12/21/15 |
| fiercely-loyal range | 12/21/15 |
| Slate french shrine | 12/30/15 |
| Slate french shrine | 12/30/15 |
| Slate french shrine | 01/04/16 |
| Vibrant sticky base | 01/04/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 01/05/16 |
| heady translucent rehab pozpig | 01/25/16 |
| laughsome territorial garrison | 01/05/16 |
| Frum Tripping Casino Striped Hyena | 01/05/16 |
| Twisted shimmering legend sandwich | 01/05/16 |
| fragrant property tattoo | 01/05/16 |
| Mildly autistic vengeful giraffe masturbator | 01/05/16 |
| fragrant property tattoo | 01/05/16 |
| Avocado useless jewess | 01/06/16 |
| fragrant property tattoo | 01/06/16 |
| Mildly autistic vengeful giraffe masturbator | 01/05/16 |
| Flesh Swollen Rigpig | 01/06/16 |
| fiercely-loyal range | 01/07/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 01/08/16 |
| medicated lascivious preventive strike new version | 01/08/16 |
| fiercely-loyal range | 01/08/16 |
| laughsome territorial garrison | 01/09/16 |
| fiercely-loyal range | 01/10/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 01/18/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 01/19/16 |
| laughsome territorial garrison | 01/21/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 01/25/16 |
| drunken flatulent business firm | 01/25/16 |
| heady translucent rehab pozpig | 01/25/16 |
| drunken flatulent business firm | 02/09/16 |
| medicated lascivious preventive strike new version | 09/06/16 |
| Avocado useless jewess | 11/05/18 |
| irradiated demanding locus genital piercing | 01/29/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 02/01/16 |
| Arousing Sneaky Criminal | 02/01/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 02/01/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 02/07/16 |
| Frum Tripping Casino Striped Hyena | 02/09/16 |
| pearl native hunting ground | 02/09/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 02/20/16 |
| excitant orchestra pit mad cow disease | 02/20/16 |
| Buff Gay Wizard | 02/24/16 |
| Sickened charismatic dilemma nowag | 02/24/16 |
| Boyish rambunctious meetinghouse national security agency | 02/27/16 |
| cerebral cream police squad | 03/09/16 |
| Clear Trust Fund Partner | 03/15/16 |
| Fluffy talented useless brakes | 03/15/16 |
| Khaki disgusting station goyim | 03/16/16 |
| Motley Hot Sound Barrier | 02/24/16 |
| ivory indian lodge persian | 02/24/16 |
| Khaki disgusting station goyim | 07/21/16 |
| Supple Kitchen Feces | 02/24/16 |
| Fluffy talented useless brakes | 02/27/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 03/02/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 03/04/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 03/09/16 |
| Frum Tripping Casino Striped Hyena | 03/09/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 03/15/16 |
| Buff Gay Wizard | 03/15/16 |
| Big misanthropic location | 03/15/16 |
| Aromatic Olive Kitty | 03/15/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 03/16/16 |
| Slimy public bath | 03/16/16 |
| Splenetic office nibblets | 03/23/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 03/23/16 |
| Very tactful violent den personal credit line | 03/26/16 |
| Know-it-all Fat Ankles Theater | 03/26/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 03/26/16 |
| Glittery painfully honest main people headpube | 03/28/16 |
| Splenetic office nibblets | 03/28/16 |
| marvelous outnumbered area | 03/28/16 |
| Flesh Swollen Rigpig | 08/12/16 |
| Avocado useless jewess | 11/05/18 |
| Slate french shrine | 03/28/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 03/29/16 |
| massive sable fanboi | 03/29/16 |
| massive sable fanboi | 03/29/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 03/29/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 03/29/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 04/01/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 04/04/16 |
| massive sable fanboi | 04/15/16 |
| Insane jet mood abode | 04/15/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 04/19/16 |
| violent aqua national idiot | 04/20/16 |
| frozen puce hell psychic | 04/20/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 04/24/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 04/25/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 04/26/16 |
| orange point candlestick maker | 04/26/16 |
| Diverse Chestnut School Cafeteria Prole | 04/30/16 |
| electric submissive church building fortuitous meteor | 05/01/16 |
| electric submissive church building fortuitous meteor | 11/07/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 05/02/16 |
| Splenetic office nibblets | 05/02/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 05/03/16 |
| Fear-inspiring bossy parlor | 05/03/16 |
| yellow thriller market pervert | 05/03/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 05/04/16 |
| medicated lascivious preventive strike new version | 05/04/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 05/05/16 |
| mind-boggling lay | 05/05/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 05/05/16 |
| ivory indian lodge persian | 05/05/16 |
| odious brethren nursing home | 05/18/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 05/18/16 |
| Buff Gay Wizard | 05/18/16 |
| odious brethren nursing home | 05/18/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 05/29/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 06/20/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 06/29/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 07/14/16 |
| multi-colored resort | 07/15/16 |
| Flesh Swollen Rigpig | 07/15/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 07/17/16 |
| medicated lascivious preventive strike new version | 07/17/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 07/21/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 07/22/16 |
| exhilarant home french chef | 07/22/16 |
| sepia parlour private investor | 07/23/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 07/24/16 |
| Maniacal Swashbuckling Tanning Salon Newt | 07/25/16 |
| massive sable fanboi | 07/25/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 07/27/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 08/05/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 08/09/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 08/12/16 |
| medicated lascivious preventive strike new version | 08/12/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 08/12/16 |
| Beta comical library messiness | 08/12/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 08/30/16 |
| medicated lascivious preventive strike new version | 08/30/16 |
| medicated lascivious preventive strike new version | 09/06/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 09/13/16 |
| massive sable fanboi | 09/14/16 |
| Hairless Hospital Dopamine | 09/14/16 |
| Passionate Mexican | 09/15/16 |
| histrionic dragon generalized bond | 09/15/16 |
| poppy mewling really tough guy | 09/15/16 |
| Titillating brass tank | 09/15/16 |
| fantasy-prone theater stage people who are hurt | 09/15/16 |
| cracking piazza marketing idea | 09/19/16 |
| cracking piazza marketing idea | 09/19/16 |
| medicated lascivious preventive strike new version | 09/27/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 09/24/16 |
| Slate french shrine | 09/27/16 |
| medicated lascivious preventive strike new version | 09/27/16 |
| Slimy public bath | 09/27/16 |
| zombie-like whorehouse | 10/08/16 |
| spectacular fishy roast beef | 07/29/24 |
| massive sable fanboi | 09/28/16 |
| Hairless Hospital Dopamine | 09/28/16 |
| medicated lascivious preventive strike new version | 09/28/16 |
| frozen puce hell psychic | 09/28/16 |
| Insane jet mood abode | 09/28/16 |
| aquamarine house | 10/08/16 |
| medicated lascivious preventive strike new version | 10/09/16 |
| crimson step-uncle's house crotch | 10/09/16 |
| medicated lascivious preventive strike new version | 10/09/16 |
| Beady-eyed cocky gunner cumskin | 10/09/16 |
| massive sable fanboi | 10/10/16 |
| Maniacal Swashbuckling Tanning Salon Newt | 10/30/16 |
| Flesh Swollen Rigpig | 11/01/16 |
| Titillating brass tank | 11/01/16 |
| Soul-stirring honey-headed stage | 11/02/16 |
| flushed halford | 11/02/16 |
| massive sable fanboi | 11/07/16 |
| self-absorbed contagious bawdyhouse | 11/08/16 |
| massive sable fanboi | 11/08/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 11/08/16 |
| massive sable fanboi | 11/08/16 |
| Trip son of senegal | 11/08/16 |
| salmon round eye mental disorder | 11/08/16 |
| Arousing Sneaky Criminal | 11/08/16 |
| cracking piazza marketing idea | 11/08/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 11/08/16 |
| dashing transparent sweet tailpipe affirmative action | 11/09/16 |
| Passionate Mexican | 11/09/16 |
| Impressive Church Alpha | 11/09/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 11/09/16 |
| Titillating brass tank | 11/09/16 |
| dashing transparent sweet tailpipe affirmative action | 11/09/16 |
| Maniacal Swashbuckling Tanning Salon Newt | 11/09/16 |
| mind-boggling lay | 11/09/16 |
| Exciting Bright Locale | 12/03/16 |
| balding talking telephone | 12/07/16 |
| Lime turdskin | 12/17/16 |
| tan immigrant | 10/11/24 |
| carnelian big-titted degenerate | 11/09/16 |
| Provocative international law enforcement agency selfie | 11/09/16 |
| 180 community account | 11/09/16 |
| adulterous toaster principal's office | 11/09/16 |
| Exciting Bright Locale | 11/09/16 |
| Flesh Swollen Rigpig | 11/09/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 11/09/16 |
| odious brethren nursing home | 11/09/16 |
| medicated lascivious preventive strike new version | 11/09/16 |
| Magenta Costumed Ticket Booth Stain | 11/09/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 11/09/16 |
| bronze shitlib multi-billionaire | 11/09/16 |
| Vigorous domesticated lettuce | 11/09/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 11/09/16 |
| Galvanic abusive jew | 11/09/16 |
| Green deep stock car corner | 11/10/16 |
| drunken flatulent business firm | 11/10/16 |
| poppy mewling really tough guy | 11/10/16 |
| Mauve underhanded temple | 11/10/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 11/10/16 |
| massive sable fanboi | 11/10/16 |
| excitant orchestra pit mad cow disease | 11/10/16 |
| cracking piazza marketing idea | 11/14/16 |
| purple crackhouse | 11/14/16 |
| indecent pocket flask | 12/04/16 |
| Lime turdskin | 12/17/16 |
| tan immigrant | 10/11/24 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 11/25/16 |
| impertinent cuckoldry | 12/03/16 |
| Beady-eyed cocky gunner cumskin | 12/04/16 |
| plum school | 12/07/16 |
| poppy mewling really tough guy | 12/07/16 |
| impertinent cuckoldry | 12/07/16 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 01/02/17 |
| patrolman | 01/02/17 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 01/02/17 |
| patrolman | 01/02/17 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 03/03/20 |
| poppy mewling really tough guy | 01/02/17 |
| Splenetic office nibblets | 01/16/17 |
| patrolman | 01/20/17 |
| Slate french shrine | 01/20/17 |
| patrolman | 01/23/17 |
| aquamarine house | 01/23/17 |
| patrolman | 01/23/17 |
| knife | 01/23/17 |
| aquamarine house | 01/23/17 |
| patrolman | 01/23/17 |
| patrolman | 01/25/17 |
| patrolman | 01/26/17 |
| patrolman | 02/06/17 |
| patrolman | 02/13/17 |
| patrolman | 02/27/17 |
| patrolman | 05/03/17 |
| Slate french shrine | 05/03/17 |
| patrolman | 09/21/17 |
| Fluffy talented useless brakes | 01/23/17 |
| Titillating brass tank | 02/27/17 |
| Avocado useless jewess | 03/22/17 |
| Slate french shrine | 04/17/17 |
| Slate french shrine | 05/08/17 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 06/20/17 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 08/10/17 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 10/15/17 |
| Splenetic office nibblets | 10/15/17 |
| Elite Startled Laser Beams | 10/15/17 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 11/06/17 |
| sanctuary karate | 11/06/17 |
| Judgmental maroon half-breed brunch | 11/08/17 |
| Copper space dog poop | 11/08/17 |
| house-broken chapel love of her life | 11/13/17 |
| Splenetic office nibblets | 12/18/17 |
| medicated lascivious preventive strike new version | 12/18/17 |
| Splenetic office nibblets | 12/18/17 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 01/30/18 |
| poppy mewling really tough guy | 06/01/18 |
| Slate french shrine | 07/18/18 |
| Splenetic office nibblets | 07/19/18 |
| fantasy-prone theater stage people who are hurt | 09/20/18 |
| Slate french shrine | 09/25/18 |
| marvelous outnumbered area | 10/06/18 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 10/06/18 |
| poppy mewling really tough guy | 10/25/18 |
| histrionic dragon generalized bond | 10/25/18 |
| heady translucent rehab pozpig | 11/05/18 |
| poppy mewling really tough guy | 11/05/18 |
| Avocado useless jewess | 11/05/18 |
| poppy mewling really tough guy | 11/05/18 |
| Slate french shrine | 01/08/19 |
| Indigo jap institution | 02/23/19 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 03/13/19 |
| heady translucent rehab pozpig | 06/24/19 |
| dull center windowlicker | 06/24/19 |
| Slate french shrine | 11/18/19 |
| Titillating brass tank | 02/12/20 |
| Slate french shrine | 02/12/20 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 03/24/20 |
| Crystalline gas station | 03/24/20 |
| multi-colored resort | 04/04/20 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 04/26/20 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 05/13/20 |
| multi-colored resort | 06/05/20 |
| cobalt cowardly box office elastic band | 06/05/20 |
| multi-colored resort | 09/09/20 |
| Titillating brass tank | 09/09/20 |
| Hairraiser Flirting Field Blood Rage | 09/09/20 |
| stag film | 09/12/20 |
| doobsian black legal warrant | 09/24/20 |
| dull center windowlicker | 10/09/20 |
| Splenetic office nibblets | 10/10/20 |
| ratface trailer park | 10/22/20 |
| Exciting Bright Locale | 10/22/20 |
| vivacious disturbing university | 10/22/20 |
| vivacious disturbing university | 10/22/20 |
| spruce clown | 03/23/22 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 10/27/20 |
| Avocado useless jewess | 10/27/20 |
| dull center windowlicker | 10/30/20 |
| Splenetic office nibblets | 11/03/20 |
| Slate french shrine | 03/22/22 |
| Ultramarine stead goal in life | 03/23/22 |
| canary hyperventilating antidepressant drug | 03/23/22 |
| Filthpig | 03/23/22 |
| Slate french shrine | 07/25/22 |
| Hairraiser Flirting Field Blood Rage | 07/25/22 |
| Slate french shrine | 10/23/22 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 11/16/22 |
| navy dingle berry depressive | 04/25/23 |
| odious brethren nursing home | 04/25/23 |
| doobsian black legal warrant | 04/29/23 |
| spectacular fishy roast beef | 05/28/23 |
| Slate french shrine | 02/22/24 |
| doobsian black legal warrant | 02/23/24 |
| Slate french shrine | 05/23/24 |
| Slate french shrine | 08/26/24 |
| doobsian black legal warrant | 09/13/24 |
| Hairraiser Flirting Field Blood Rage | 09/13/24 |
| doobsian black legal warrant | 10/18/24 |
| tan immigrant | 10/11/24 |
| Slate french shrine | 11/06/24 |
| mind-boggling lay | 03/04/25 |
| mind-boggling lay | 03/04/25 |
| fantasy-prone theater stage people who are hurt | 03/04/25 |
| tan immigrant | 03/04/25 |
| nubile roommate | 03/04/25 |
| dead liquid oxygen boiling water | 03/05/25 |
| Slate french shrine | 03/07/25 |
| deranged famous landscape painting | 03/07/25 |
| Slate french shrine | 03/08/25 |
| Rusted Hominid | 03/08/25 |
| Slate french shrine | 03/08/25 |
| Fluffy talented useless brakes | 02/18/26 |
| lfo | 05/15/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: adventurous lavender hairy legs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364653) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: Bateful kitty cat senate "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37090197) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: startling ebony address coldplay fan (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: Gold Appetizing Hall Mad-dog Skullcap FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Slimy public bath Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Floppy bistre toilet seat spot Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Concupiscible obsidian forum scourge upon the earth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: Turquoise infuriating yarmulke Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: jet-lagged hyperactive reading party Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: Vibrant sticky base Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Opaque wonderful boistinker March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Aphrodisiac cruise ship Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: Stimulating wine volcanic crater Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Slimy public bath OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Slimy public bath And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: cerebral cream police squad 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Khaki disgusting station goyim fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Razzle-dazzle Federal Organic Girlfriend Incel I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: bat-shit-crazy greedy bbw lodge February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: razzle bat shit crazy site You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384262) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: navy dingle berry depressive http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Scarlet rebellious friendly grandma Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Stirring drab heaven gaming laptop This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Slate french shrine Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Slate french shrine Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: laughsome territorial garrison (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Avocado useless jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Green deep stock car corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Slate french shrine Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Slate french shrine "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: fiercely-loyal range 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Slate french shrine "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Slate french shrine One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Slate french shrine This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: Vibrant sticky base flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: heady translucent rehab pozpig Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: laughsome territorial garrison From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Mildly autistic vengeful giraffe masturbator No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29531557) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: fiercely-loyal range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Slate french shrine “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: medicated lascivious preventive strike new version 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: fiercely-loyal range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: laughsome territorial garrison http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: fiercely-loyal range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Slate french shrine http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Slate french shrine Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: laughsome territorial garrison looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#29677719) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Slate french shrine It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Flesh Swollen Rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31172540) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM Author: Avocado useless jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37162050) |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Slate french shrine "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Slate french shrine "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: massive sable fanboi lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30160689) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: massive sable fanboi "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Slate french shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Slate french shrine http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Slate french shrine http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Slate french shrine "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: massive sable fanboi interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: Insane jet mood abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30279158) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: electric submissive church building fortuitous meteor Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Slate french shrine The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Slate french shrine Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Slate french shrine Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Slate french shrine http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: multi-colored resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Flesh Swollen Rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Slate french shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: medicated lascivious preventive strike new version 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Slate french shrine http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Slate french shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: exhilarant home french chef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: sepia parlour private investor Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Slate french shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: Maniacal Swashbuckling Tanning Salon Newt Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: massive sable fanboi amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Slate french shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Slate french shrine http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: medicated lascivious preventive strike new version holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Beta comical library messiness LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: medicated lascivious preventive strike new version 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: medicated lascivious preventive strike new version lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Slate french shrine Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: massive sable fanboi ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Hairless Hospital Dopamine Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Passionate Mexican September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: histrionic dragon generalized bond September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: poppy mewling really tough guy god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Titillating brass tank XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: fantasy-prone theater stage people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: cracking piazza marketing idea (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: cracking piazza marketing idea The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: medicated lascivious preventive strike new version let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Slate french shrine http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: medicated lascivious preventive strike new version (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Slimy public bath This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: zombie-like whorehouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: spectacular fishy roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: massive sable fanboi http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Hairless Hospital Dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: medicated lascivious preventive strike new version 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: frozen puce hell psychic This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: Insane jet mood abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: aquamarine house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: medicated lascivious preventive strike new version hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: crimson step-uncle's house crotch Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: medicated lascivious preventive strike new version doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Beady-eyed cocky gunner cumskin half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: massive sable fanboi nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: Maniacal Swashbuckling Tanning Salon Newt close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Flesh Swollen Rigpig Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Titillating brass tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Soul-stirring honey-headed stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: flushed halford (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: massive sable fanboi prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: self-absorbed contagious bawdyhouse You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: massive sable fanboi true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: massive sable fanboi ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: Trip son of senegal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: salmon round eye mental disorder Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: Arousing Sneaky Criminal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: cracking piazza marketing idea (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: dashing transparent sweet tailpipe affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: Passionate Mexican (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: Impressive Church Alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: navy dingle berry depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Titillating brass tank GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: dashing transparent sweet tailpipe affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: Maniacal Swashbuckling Tanning Salon Newt it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: mind-boggling lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: Exciting Bright Locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: balding talking telephone (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Lime turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: tan immigrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: carnelian big-titted degenerate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Provocative international law enforcement agency selfie Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: 180 community account (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: adulterous toaster principal's office 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: Exciting Bright Locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Flesh Swollen Rigpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: navy dingle berry depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: odious brethren nursing home this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: medicated lascivious preventive strike new version (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: Magenta Costumed Ticket Booth Stain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: bronze shitlib multi-billionaire (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: Vigorous domesticated lettuce (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: Galvanic abusive jew you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Green deep stock car corner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: drunken flatulent business firm Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: poppy mewling really tough guy bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: Mauve underhanded temple (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: navy dingle berry depressive sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: massive sable fanboi ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: excitant orchestra pit mad cow disease (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: cracking piazza marketing idea (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: purple crackhouse They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: indecent pocket flask Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Lime turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: tan immigrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: impertinent cuckoldry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Beady-eyed cocky gunner cumskin GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: plum school https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: poppy mewling really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: impertinent cuckoldry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: patrolman October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: patrolman ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: navy dingle berry depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: poppy mewling really tough guy truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: Splenetic office nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: patrolman https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Slate french shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: patrolman http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: aquamarine house TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: patrolman It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: knife I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: aquamarine house it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: patrolman The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: patrolman https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: patrolman https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: patrolman https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: patrolman https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: patrolman https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: patrolman https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Slate french shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: patrolman https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Fluffy talented useless brakes this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Titillating brass tank One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Avocado useless jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Slate french shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Slate french shrine https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Splenetic office nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Elite Startled Laser Beams (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: navy dingle berry depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: sanctuary karate credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: Judgmental maroon half-breed brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: Copper space dog poop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: house-broken chapel love of her life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: Splenetic office nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: medicated lascivious preventive strike new version Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: Splenetic office nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: poppy mewling really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Slate french shrine https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: Splenetic office nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: fantasy-prone theater stage people who are hurt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Slate french shrine The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: marvelous outnumbered area It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: poppy mewling really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: histrionic dragon generalized bond Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: heady translucent rehab pozpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: poppy mewling really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Avocado useless jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: poppy mewling really tough guy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Slate french shrine What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: Indigo jap institution (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: navy dingle berry depressive Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: heady translucent rehab pozpig There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: dull center windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Slate french shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Titillating brass tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Slate french shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: navy dingle berry depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: Crystalline gas station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: multi-colored resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: navy dingle berry depressive https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: multi-colored resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: cobalt cowardly box office elastic band (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: multi-colored resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Titillating brass tank (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Hairraiser Flirting Field Blood Rage Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: stag film (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: doobsian black legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: dull center windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: Splenetic office nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: ratface trailer park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: Exciting Bright Locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: vivacious disturbing university (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: vivacious disturbing university https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: spruce clown (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Avocado useless jewess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: dull center windowlicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: Splenetic office nibblets (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Slate french shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: Ultramarine stead goal in life (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: canary hyperventilating antidepressant drug (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: Filthpig 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Slate french shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Hairraiser Flirting Field Blood Rage A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Slate french shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: navy dingle berry depressive Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: navy dingle berry depressive https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: odious brethren nursing home why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: doobsian black legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: spectacular fishy roast beef FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Slate french shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: doobsian black legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Slate french shrine https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Slate french shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: doobsian black legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Hairraiser Flirting Field Blood Rage One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: doobsian black legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: tan immigrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Slate french shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: mind-boggling lay 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: mind-boggling lay https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: fantasy-prone theater stage people who are hurt Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: tan immigrant The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: nubile roommate He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: dead liquid oxygen boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Slate french shrine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: deranged famous landscape painting 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Slate french shrine "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: Rusted Hominid Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Slate french shrine Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: Fluffy talented useless brakes (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2/#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: lfo ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |