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Literally every forecast model has Kamala winning
Poast new message in this thread
Date: September 20th, 2024 2:49 PM Author: '''"''"'''""'"" https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1837197575939613138?s=46
as does every betting market:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Maybe every one of them is wrong though and MASE (2024’s borders tp) is right 🤷♂️ |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 2:50 PM Author: but at what cost Date: September 20th, 2024 2:49 PM Author: ,.,.,.,.,.,.,..,:,,:,,.,:::,.,,.,:.,,.:.,:.,:.::,.
https://x.com/iapolls2022/status/1837197575939613138?s=46 as does every betting market:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Maybe every one of them is wrong though and MASE (2024’s borders tp) is right 🤷♂️ |
Date: September 20th, 2024 2:51 PM Author: FBI Agent Chris Saviano is Raping My Wife It's not 2016 anymore, but on Election Day 2016 Nate Silver gave Trump a 30 percent chance of winning:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 2:52 PM Author: but at what cost the idea that people are more excited to vote for Kamala than Trump is fucking hilarious. no one has ever been excited to vote for Kamala. every election she's won has been given to her for reasons that have nothing to do with any sort of positive character traits or accomplishments (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48113775) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 2:56 PM Author: '''"''"'''""'"" How are the libs defrauding the polls? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48113784) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 2:57 PM Author: '''"''"'''""'"" Biden/Trump fatigue is a real phenomenon btw (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48113788) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 3:02 PM Author: Based Archbishop Vigano TP (SSPX Masterman) Liberal white women are the most mentally ill demographic in the country. I'm not surprised. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48113811) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:32 PM Author: A Technologically Advanced Pontiac Firebird No one understand what a probabilistic model is. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48114680) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 2:55 PM Author: MASE I am nowhere near as detailed as borders tp was, but you can basically get an idea of how this election is going to go by listening to Richard Baris. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48113780) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 2:57 PM Author: '''"''"'''""'"" Remind me…how’d all that detail work out for borders? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48113790) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 2:59 PM Author: Borders 2.0 I assure you it's going to work out quite well in 2024. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48113794) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 2:59 PM Author: MASE He was right about the direction and the magnitude of the errors, just not the fact that they were large enough to put Trump over the edge. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48113795) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 3:02 PM Author: Borders 2.0 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48113807) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 3:05 PM Author: '''"''"'''""'"" lmao (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48113823) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 3:07 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe If trafalgar is as close to the final result as they were in 2020, Harris would sweep all 7 swing states. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48113836) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 3:07 PM Author: state your IQ before I engage you further Great. You may be thinking of ballots tp (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48113829) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 3:08 PM Author: baseball fan I don't think this is true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48113840) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 3:09 PM Author: MASE http://autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598631&mc=1&forum_id=2 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48113847) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 3:09 PM Author: '''"''"'''""'"" link to one that doesn’t plz (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48113848) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 3:13 PM Author: state your IQ before I engage you further Autoadmit.com (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48113865) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:34 PM Author: lsd (Voddie Baucham Did Nothing Wrong) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48114686) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 3:47 PM Author: Cupid Stunt Weird, this reminds me of 2016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48113955) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 5:34 PM Author: '''"''"'''""'"" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48114373) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 5:36 PM Author: A lawyer (or lower) Do u understand how non independent events and probability work (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48114379) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 5:39 PM Author: #HerToo Is there a single liberal who understands how probability works? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48114385) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 5:50 PM Author: FBI Agent Chris Saviano is Raping My Wife How is probability factored in? How can you calculate or estimate the true probability upon which the betting lines are based? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48114422) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 5:56 PM Author: Lion Diet is CR HTMFH always a pumo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48114436) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 6:38 PM Author: How to derive aut from ism We'll see just how many moderate democrats and left of center independents just stay the fuck home.
I have no confidence that these pollsters know who the *likely* voters are. I get that a lot of non-MAGA people can't bring themselves to cast ballots for Trump, but they're not in a suicide pact either. |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:31 PM Author: A Technologically Advanced Pontiac Firebird If no one on XO can understand what a probabilistic model is then the rest of the public has no idea.
Betting markets accurately capture consensus but have almost no predictive value. |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:36 PM Author: lsd (Voddie Baucham Did Nothing Wrong) You’re 2016-ing yourself. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48114691) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:52 PM Author: ........,,,,,,......,.,.,.,,,,,,,,,, Put another way - Trump is way ahead of where he was in 2016 and 2020 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48115064) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:54 PM Author: Cat of Mr. Mistoffelees nobody wants sloppy orange seconds (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598623&forum_id=2/en-en/#48115071) |