My favorite Joe Manchin quote is when he nixed Pelosi's massive spending bill and Bret Baier asked him if he was really a Democrat. He said, "In West Virginia we're a different kind of Democrat I guess than they are in San Francisco."

Shitlibs about to find out that there are different kinds of Democrats, ones who don't ascribe to the particular values of Northern California.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5568695&forum_id=2/en-en/#47921036)

Sometimes you just have to sit back and wait for your opponent to make a mistake. I know it’s killing you that Trump is actually maintaining a little discipline

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5568695&forum_id=2/en-en/#47943242)

Eight years ago in the middle of the DNC all he had to do was jokingly ask Russia to hack Hillary's emails and he completely dominated coverage. But that Trump no longer exists.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5568695&forum_id=2/en-en/#47943248)

Jesus you people have the attention span of a goldfish.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5568695&forum_id=2/en-en/#47943325)

Oh btw. Trumpmos aren’t the “silent majority” anymore. They’re louder and more obnoxious than ever + they were never the majority.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5568695&forum_id=2/en-en/#47921470)

Some unreported facts about PA the media will never tell you: Trump did better in Philadelphia County in 2020 than he did against Hillary in 2016. The whole blacks didn't turn out for Hillary thing is a myth. Trump shaved a point off of Biden. He's made even more inroads with minorities sense then. Any split in Philadelphia County that does less than 80/20 could potentially sink the state for Kamala. The idea that she will get 2008 Obama level turnout from dindus is also a farce. Polling data shows that Trump is up bigly with the urban demo. He's been building this big tent coalition for a long time. And remember, even a few percentage points can sink the Dem ticket, here. The whole state is a razor thin margin. No Dem can have any doubts about the ticket. GOP enthusiasm is higher according to polls.

Secondly you might ask how tf did Biden win if he did slightly worse in Philadelphia? Almost entirely because of Montgomery and Allagheny counties. This came down to Dems doing about 5 pts better than they did in 2016. These are mostly wealthy suburban white people.

Kamala has to win suburban wine moms by a wide margin. The problem here for Dems is that the ticket has completely alienated white men, and young men. For every barren megashrew in a pussy hat, there's a white guy who lives on the Main Line who sees absolutely nothing for him in the Harris Walz ticket. They've run so far the left that they have no middle. These people have had 4 years to see how bad Philly has gotten with Soros DA and Kensington falling to ruin. These dudes are mostly salt of the Earth yokels. Megan Thee Stallion booty shaking is not doing anything for them.

So I think that Kamala alienating white dudes is going to nix whatever gains from the uber motivated yas kween megashrew crowd. If Montgomery County tips back to a more equitable split and Philly nignogs are a little bit more on the Trump train, it's over. It will likely come down to less than 100k votes. But Trump has some strong fundamentals here.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5568695&forum_id=2/en-en/#47943418)

1) are you aware of how much the population has shifted rural to urban and non-college to college-degreed in PA between 2016 and now?

2) how does the fact that PA has legalized full ballot harvesting and has Dems at all levels of final decision making for all election law enforcement in 2024 included in your analysis?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5568695&forum_id=2/en-en/#47943600)

2) No clue. I just hope they stick to the rules set in stone ahead of time. No last minute switcheroos. As long as the rules are set ahead of time then it's fair. I'll be worried if they pull the rug out at the last minute.

Bonus Dr. Oz was a terrible, unlikeable candidate. He lost by 5 pts. I think this is indicative of where the PA electorate is. I'm confident that Trump is a much better candidate than Oz was. As such this is going to be another photo finish. Anyone who says they're absolutely sure it's a lock is kidding themselves. This is truly a swing state. Just accept it. The voters can go one way or the other. That's just reality.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5568695&forum_id=2/en-en/#47943643)

The point of my OP is that Democrats have a history of calling their shot and then losing. Nixon in '68 shocked the left. Same in 2016. "I'm 100000% sure that these people will always under every circumstance vote the way I think they will" is not in tune with the history of American politics writ large. Yeah, sometimes the pollsters are right. But sometimes they're wrong. I think for your own sanity maybe consider that you don't know your neighbor as well as you think they do.

I consider all potential outcomes, including ones I don't like. I think there's at least a 30% chance something totally bonkers and unforeseen could happen in this election. For example if we woke up the next day and Louisiana was blue and Oregon was red. I mean, who the hell knows? Embrace chaos brother (or sister). Don't underestimate the possibility of people surprising you. Nate Silver said his biggest mistake was thinking it was impossible Trump could win the 2016 GOP primary. Even our smartest minds cannot predict human nature. Everything is on the table.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5568695&forum_id=2/en-en/#47943800)