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How likely is this 278-260 (Kamala wins) Electoral Map?
| Crusty toaster menage | 08/18/24 |
| fiercely-loyal very tactful address | 08/18/24 |
| drab swashbuckling tank | 08/18/24 |
| excitant obsidian gunner | 08/19/24 |
| Mahogany erotic regret | 08/19/24 |
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Date: August 18th, 2024 11:34 PM Author: Crusty toaster menage https://www.270towin.com/maps/2AE2o (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5578598&forum_id=2/en-en/#47980831) |
Date: August 18th, 2024 11:38 PM Author: fiercely-loyal very tactful address I just don't see Arizona and Nevada voting for different candidates. Nevada in particular favors Democrats given the demographic trends, and the abortion issue will definitely hurt Trump in Arizona. And if you have a scenario where Harris is winning North Carolina and Georgia that'll probably mean a blue wave, not a narrow victory. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5578598&forum_id=2/en-en/#47980839) |
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Date: August 18th, 2024 11:50 PM Author: drab swashbuckling tank if Harris wins NC and GA it would mean an epic Dem blowout. It would mean that a fundamental realignment in voting trends had occurred and that the GOP had become an irrelevant, minority fringe group relegated solely to rural states.
This is, of course, what most Dems actually believe will happen. This is highly unlikely given that GOP won the house in 2022. It's completely delusional. |
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Date: August 19th, 2024 12:13 AM Author: excitant obsidian gunner Losing Pennsylvania but winning North Carolina are unlikely outcomes.
I think Harris wins and takes Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia |
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Date: August 19th, 2024 12:17 AM Author: Mahogany erotic regret The outcomes in a given state tends to be correlated with the outcome in nearby states. So it's very unlikely that Harris wins WI/MI but not PA, or AZ but not NV, or NC but not GA. The last one seems especially unlikely given that GA is both more urban and more black than NC. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5578598&forum_id=2/en-en/#47980896) |