By David French

Opinion Columnist

Sarah Isgur, a longtime Republican campaign operative — and my friend and a senior editor at The Dispatch — has a brilliant sports analogy for the process of campaigning. She compares it to … curling.

For those unfamiliar with the sport (which enjoys 15 minutes of fame every Winter Olympics), it involves sliding a very large, heavy “rock” toward a target on the ice. One person “throws” a 44-pound disc-shaped stone by sliding it along the ice, then sweepers come in and frantically try to marginally change the speed and direction of the rock by brushing the ice with “brooms” that can melt just enough of the ice to make the rock travel farther or perhaps a little bit straighter.

The sweepers are important, no doubt, but they cannot control the rock enough to save a bad throw. It’s a matter of physics. The rock simply has too much momentum.

What does this have to do with politics? As Isgur writes, “The underlying dynamics of an election cycle (the economy, the popularity of the president, national events driving the news cycle) are like the 44-pound ‘stone.’ ” The candidates and the campaign team are the sweepers. They work frantically — and they can influence the stone — but they don’t control it.

One of the frustrating elements of political commentary is that we spend far too much time talking about the sweeping and far too little time talking about the stone. Political hobbyists in particular (and that includes journalists!) are very interested in ad campaigns, ground games and messaging.

Those things do matter, but when facing an election defeat this comprehensive, you know it was the stone that made the difference.

So, in 2024, what was the stone? It’s the same stone it almost always is: peace and prosperity. This is job one. A decisive number of Americans will put up with a politician’s quirks, foibles and even corruption, if he or she delivers peace and prosperity. There’s zero tolerance for scandal when they fail.

Republicans learned this lesson during Bill Clinton’s presidency. Evidence of sexual misconduct, perjury and even allegations of sexual assault were largely politically meaningless compared with peace, a budget surplus, 4.5 percent growth in the gross domestic product and a 4.4 percent unemployment rate.

Clinton’s affair with Monica Lewinsky was first reported in January 1998. According to Gallup, Clinton had a 69 percent approval rating just before the scandal broke. By the end of the year — after he confessed to lying to the American public, after he settled the sexual harassment suit and as he was impeached — his approval rating was 73 percent.

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Yes, you can ascribe some of his popularity to the hypocrisy and overreach of his enemies. Newt Gingrich and Robert Livingston — two Republican leaders in the House — had engaged in their own affairs, for example. But the bottom line is that peace and prosperity made Clinton politically bulletproof.

You can see this phenomenon up and down American politics. In hindsight, one harbinger of the 2024 election was a 2022 San Francisco school board recall. Voters recalled three members of the school board after the board voted to change the names of dozens of San Francisco schools.

Many of the name changes were absurd artifacts of an era that one might describe as “peak woke” (Dianne Feinstein and Abraham Lincoln were among the names removed), but that’s not the whole story. It was really an election about competence. The school board was voting to change school names while San Francisco schools were still closed — and schools in many other districts were open.

As Mother Jones’s Clara Jeffery wrote at the time, San Francisco recall voters were choosing “to put performance over performativeness.”

You can also feel the weight of the stone in global trends. The governments in power when inflation hit are all suffering from an electoral backlash. A spirit of anti-incumbency is sweeping away parties regardless of ideology. In fact, as The Atlantic’s Derek Thompson posted last week, “For the first time since World War II, every governing party facing election in a developed country this year lost vote share.”

Think of Britain. In 2019, Boris Johnson and the Tories won a crushing victory over Labour. There was talk of realignment. The Tories had broken Labour’s “red wall” and won over the working class. In 2024 — as Britain’s economy remained stagnant — Labour wiped out the Tories. Apparently, the realignment was postponed.

In the days since Donald Trump’s victory, I’ve read a number of pieces about Democratic messaging, Democratic elitism and far-left intolerance that drove a number of people into MAGA’s open arms.

This level of self-reflection is important and wise — sweeping is important on the margins, after all — but I can’t help but think that if the withdrawal from Afghanistan hadn’t been a bloody mess (that’s when Joe Biden’s approval rating went underwater; it never came back), if inflation hadn’t spiked and if migration hadn’t surged at the border, then we’d be having a different conversation.

I know that the Harris campaign had answers for all these criticisms. The American people wanted to end the Afghan war and Biden was saddled with Trump’s terrible deal with the Taliban. Inflation was a global phenomenon and it was unfair to entirely blame Biden when by 2023 America had the lowest inflation rate among the Group of 7 countries. The Biden administration had finally cracked down on the border and had endorsed a tough new border bill.

They also rightly argued that Trump nostalgia was misplaced. It was wrong to give the former president a pass for the pandemic, or for the chaos and murder spikes of 2020. His term did not end in 2019, with peace and prosperity. It ended near the beginning of 2021 with disease, violence and cultural decay. Even the memories of the time before Covid are idealized. There was an immense amount of domestic turmoil before the pandemic.

To continue the curling analogy, the Harris campaign also argued that there was a different rock in play, one that was more important than peace and prosperity: democracy and the rule of law.

I agreed with the Harris campaign on this point. I believed the stakes changed after Jan. 6. I believed this was not a normal election and that many policy disagreements should have been put aside for a larger purpose. It wasn’t irrational to believe this argument might prevail. Republicans had underperformed in 2022 and Kamala Harris did win an overwhelming majority of voters who said democracy was their top issue in the election.

But no. The first rock was in play, and all the arguments about easing inflation, better border policies or the importance of NATO paled in the face of the facts: Americans want to end wars but not lose them, inflation bit so hard that it may not be until next year that wages fully recover and there was never a good explanation for permitting so very many migrants to enter the country.

When I consider why Trump won, I think of two different numbers — 17 million and 73 million. The first number represents Trump’s primary voters. That’s MAGA. Those are the people who were given a choice between Trump and a number of other accomplished Republicans and chose Trump again.

The 73 million are Trump’s general election voters. Many of them — maybe most — certainly do love Trump. Some are indeed outright racists and misogynists. But if you actually sit down and talk with many other Trump voters, you’ll hear some version of this: “Look, I didn’t like Jan. 6 — and I don’t want it to happen again — but it didn’t affect my life nearly as much as the price of eggs, milk and gas.”

This reality is reflected in the results. Trump narrowly won lower-income voters after Joe Biden won their votes decisively in 2020. He modestly improved his showing with minority voters. He assembled an actual multiethnic working-class coalition. He won a number of heavily Hispanic border counties in Texas. America’s most vulnerable communities faced the consequences of inflation without the financial cushion of wealthier families, and they’re still financially behind.

Understanding voters’ decisions is not the same thing as justifying them. I strongly disagree with the decision so many of my friends and neighbors made. Our experience teaches us that we can count on Trump to be performative, but we cannot count on him to perform. There was a reason voters tossed him out of office once before.

But now he’s back, and soon enough the MAGA true believers will realize that their ideological dreams will quickly die if they can’t deliver the peace and prosperity they promised. We read too much cultural significance into any given election. Every party and every movement can be one business cycle from defeat.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5631551&forum_id=2/en-en/#48319569)

Silver Spring, MD

8h ago

"But now he’s back, and soon enough the MAGA true believers will realize that their ideological dreams will quickly die if they can’t deliver the peace and prosperity they promised."

I love the curling analogy in this David French opinion piece, literally feeling the weight of the curling stone sliding down the ice ready to barrel into other curling stones just like the weight of political events can knock many of us off our stride. I also buy into the competency argument — most people love competent people and organizations.

My personal opinion is that Mr. Trump will not read this terrific opinion piece with the curling analogy, he will let his baser instincts prevail, and we will see a continuation of the volatile-and-incompetent-Trump rewarding his friends and the rich, running rampant over the rule of law, and creating mayhem and unhappiness. The peace-and-prosperity-Trump, if it exists at all, will be quickly subsumed by the volatile-and-incompetent-Trump because he is "Trump" after all and leopards don't change their spots, and the volatile version of Mr. Trump will be a political curling stone barreling into people and events in the most obnoxious and damaging way possible. MAGA, however, probably won't care that much or even notice.

18 Replies504 RecommendShareFlag

TK commented 8 hours ago

T

TK

Wisconsin

8h ago

This is an interesting analogy.

I read that results of focus groups conducted by a Republican found that Americans care more about prices/economy than democracy. Also that the most common response to whether Trump was authoritarian was, "What's an authoritarian?"

Wait until they begin to realize that they will be negatively impacted by any number of his policies, especially when prices skyrocket after tariffs and/pr deportations. And that's just one of the painful realities on the way.

You're right: this was not a "normal" election. And I'll look at everyone who voted for him very differently now. Because in the end, no matter the issues they claim were most important to them, they also chose hate, bigotry, and misogyny.

I am hopeful though. Because there will be many, many other good people that will be working to help other human beings, and that will work to blunt the impacts of what's coming. Be one of those people.

26 Replies472 RecommendShareFlag

Nomind commented 8 hours ago

N

Nomind

Nowhere

8h ago

I like the curling analogy, although I've always thought of the economy as a giant ocean liner. Yes, it can be turned, but once it gets going with enough speed, that takes a while.

And this is what's frustrating for liberals like me. George W. Bush handed Obama a terrible economy, but after three or four years, Obama managed to turn it around. By the end of his second term, the economy was great. Then Trump is elected in 2016, and he takes credit for the good times. Once the pandemic hits, the economy tanks and inflation rises, and Republicans once again hand Democrats a bad economy.

But the ocean liner has been turning the past four years, albeit slowly: inflation has come down, unemployment is low. Yes, food and gas are still high, but those prices are largely beyond the control of any President.

So, Trump will take credit for Biden's gains. And in 2028, another President will have to deal with an economy that Trump steers into turbulent waters. And as Mr. French notes, because Americans will vote for a "change candidate" (i.e. Democrat), the cycle will repeat yet again.

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Beowulf commented 8 hours ago

B

Beowulf

Old England

8h ago

Mr. French, you are my favorite NYT columnist, even if we disagree on a few core things. You often either say what I have been thinking with more elegance and precision, or you make me differently about an issue.

But my tea leaves are much, much different from yours when it comes to this election. I think the results is due to two things: 1. People are deeply uncomfortable with the idea of a woman as President; and 2. People truly like Trump. I think anyone who says they voted for him but they don't really like him is lying -- perhaps to themselves as much as to anyone else.

And I do not think that Trump will suffer if inflation does not recede or people's economic prospects fail to improve. I think that people will give him credit for "trying," as they did in his first term. And I think that when he scapegoats a group to deflect blame, they will believe him.

16 Replies344 RecommendShareFlag

Brian commented 8 hours ago

B

Brian

The Boroughs

8h ago

Mr. French's analysis is good, but he leaves out a key element: the Right controlled virtually all the "brooms," which allowed them to sweep the stones of inflation, Afghanistan, etc in the direction they wanted them to go. How many voters knew that Trump set the deadline for Afghanistan withdrawal? Or that real wage growth outpaced inflation for 10 straight months before the election? Why was the unassailable fact that Trump tried to overturn a free and fair election cast into doubt?

Biden's stone was indeed heavy. But for many voters, Democratic sweepers weren't even allowed on the ice.

9 Replies278 RecommendShareFlag

JimmyG commented 8 hours ago

J

JimmyG

MD

8h ago

Well, trump advisors are already looking to walk back those promises of no tax on tips or overtime. Environmental protections for poor areas of the country disproportionately affected by pollution are to be forgotten. All public lands and national parks are now up for sale to oil and gas exploration ruining much of our national heritage. Russian/North Korean troops are massed along Ukraine’s border. Looks like all that promise of peace and prosperity manure trump spread is already a promise unfulfilled.

5 Replies218 RecommendShareFlag

Jack commented 8 hours ago

J

Jack

New Jersey

8h ago

Insightful column and great analogy. What's most troubling to me, however, is the fact that most voters seem to credit or blame presidents for the peace and prosperity that happen or don't on their watch, while the actual reality is they have limited control over both of those, especially the economy.

2 Replies167 RecommendShareFlag

Mike commented 8 hours ago

M

Mike

Texas

8h ago

This is the best explanation of what happened that I have read in the Times. That is in part because, unlike almost all the others, it never mentions Biden’s age or the timing of his decision to step aside. It rightly identifies the key blows to the Democrats’ election chances as the Afghanistan withdrawal, inflation and the border. The Biden response to the border was so lackadaisical that it is almost as if they wanted to lose.

The Afghanistan withdrawal, however, is a prime example of something Mr. French does not mention: the relentless mainstream media campaign against Biden that did so much of Trump’s work for him. It was at the moment of the withdrawal that Democrats who had said little about Trump’s disastrous deal with the Taliban began to form a circular firing squad, rushing to media microphones eager to amplify their voices to denounce rather than defend Biden (as it goes without saying Republicans would have defended Trump).

Similarly, media leaned hard into inflation coverage & interviewed almost nobody who got one of the many millions of jobs created under Biden.Union workers who got raises due to Biden? Ditto. Far more coverage was devoted to Biden’s age. It is as if everyone in the media decided not to cover but to join the curling match. In a final failure, Biden and Harris never called out the media but remained deferential to it even as it got between them and the stone and guided the stone in Trump’s direction.

4 Replies160 RecommendShareFlag

Henry commented 8 hours ago

Henry

Henry

MA

8h ago

Excellent column.

Since the election, the blame game has been a free-for-all and a largely incoherent one.

"Let's deport people and steal their stuff" turned out to resonate more widely than "this slow and steady improvement in wage recovery and high employment can continue if we're prudent."

1 Reply147 RecommendShareFlag

Paul Wortman commented 8 hours ago

P

Paul Wortman

Providence

8h ago

The real question is: Will democracy survive Trump who has pledged to overthrow it? All bets for a political correction, if Trump's policies fail as many predict, and there are no elections, as he promised. In other words: Trump won the curling match and now plans to destroy the stone forever.

4 Replies136 RecommendShareFlag

Steve Paradis commented 2 hours ago

S

Steve Paradis

Flint Michigan

2h ago

"There Were Two Huge Problems Harris Could Not Escape"

1. She was a woman.

2. She was Black.

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teach commented 5 hours ago

t

teach

NC

5h ago

Almost every post-mortem of the election seems to me some combination of victim blaming and vote-washing, and one that misses the crux of the catastrophe. It doesn't really matter what the Democrat's message is if no one is hearing it. A majority of citizens are only getting news from the delusional, paranoid, fantasy world of the right wing media empire. Over and over again interviews showed that voters don't know basic facts--like who overturned Roe. Not because they were uninformed, but because they were lied to. By media owned by the richest men in the world. It's an emergency.

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Peter McCaffrey commented 6 hours ago

P

Peter McCaffrey

Tucson

6h ago

I still find it hard to understand. People are willing to lose health insurance so the they can save a little money each week on lower gas and egg prices. Go figure.

4 Replies115 RecommendShareFlag

Gaius commented 8 hours ago

G

Gaius

Tampa

8h ago

In other words, Bernie Sanders and Jim Carvelle were right. The Dems need to return to the days of focusing on people who earn paychecks. Bernie did that in 2016, and won the Michigan primary. Trump did it last week and won the Presidency.

Meanwhile, the corporate Dems still run the party. And still lose elections.

5 Replies111 RecommendShareFlag

FW commented 6 hours ago

F

FW

West Virginia

6h ago

Competency is only really demanded of Democrats. For instance I don’t see any evidence in this state of voters rewarding competency. Here, if you have an R by your name, you win. How well you did your job isn’t terribly relevant. I can point to longtime democratic office holders who were exemplary public servants that were tossed out in favor of performative right wing republicans.

As for the economy, I can say confidently that if a Republican were president in 2024, Trump’s voters would’ve been touting the great economic recovery. Also, gas prices aren’t high (around $3.00-$3.50 a gallon). They haven’t been high in two plus years. It’s a lazy troupe to just reflexively complain about prices at the pump. Plus how many of the people complaining about gas prices drive giant $50,000 trucks 80 miles an hour on the interstate?

1 Reply104 RecommendShareFlag

Paulio commented 7 hours ago

P

Paulio

Cinci

7h ago

Very well argued. In the same vein, should the GOP also take the House, it will be at once terrible and the best possible outcome. Give the people what they want. Let the GOP be the working class party: maybe it will deliver for them finally. But I think it will instead carry out its worst impulses. A self-satisfied Trump will be a better campaign message than anything the Democrats can muster on their own.

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Paul Ruszczyk commented 2 hours ago

P

Paul Ruszczyk

Cheshire ct

2h ago

She had 3 problems

1. She is a woman

2. She is half African American

3. She is half Indian American

How many people from central Pennsylvania were going to vote for her even if she walked on water?

78 RecommendShareFlag

PeterKa commented 7 hours ago

P

PeterKa

New York

7h ago

The macro problems of the Biden administration that cost the Democrats the election are accurately identified by Mr. French. Republicans however had thirteen candidates to choose from and they picked the most despicable one. Trump was not just an opponent with widely alternative views, he is a shamefully dishonest convicted felon who throughout his career has engaged in frauds and deceit. He consistently surrounds himself with liars and con artists, many who as president he pardoned when they were indicted or convicted of crimes. Biden was an honest and decent man with many significant accomplishments in his term. It’s not just the policies of Trump and his supporters that Democrats reject, it’s the sordid character of Trump himself that represents our fears for the future of this nation.

1 Reply77 RecommendShareFlag

Plubius commented 8 hours ago

P

Plubius

Annandale, VA

8h ago

The ray of hope in this insightful article is that it is extremely unlikely a second Trump term will deliver peace and prosperity, shaping 2028 (if only our democratic institutions can stand during the interim).

4 Replies72 RecommendShareFlag

Jim K commented 2 hours ago

J

Jim K

Upstate NY

2h ago

Mussolini and Hitler came to power in the 1930's because their electorates were facing very real economic hardship. Americans are not facing that level of economic hardship, yet they have elected an illiberal strongman who promised revenge and retribution. Trump had the backing of evangelical Christians and other groups that should have known better. Misogyny, patriarchy, homophobia and xenophobia also played significant roles in the 2024 election.

71 RecommendShareFlag

Mango commented 7 hours ago

M

Mango

Florida

7h ago

@TK It makes me sad that so many people on the lower to middle of the economic scale believe Trump is going to help them.

69 RecommendShareFlag

Nathan commented 7 hours ago

N

Nathan

Philadelphia

7h ago

@Reuben

As if anti-union trump will do any of these things for working class. We have such low unemployment I don’t think taking jobs is the issue.

He had to villainize immigrants to get people to hate them.

What’s sad is that no one stood up to him, no one said , Actually most immigrants aren’t criminals, they’re determined folks who have enough money to cross thousands of miles to get a better life. They work harder than and commit less crimes than born Americans, and pay more taxes and ss.

In the same way, no one stood up for trans folks, saying they aren’t predictors but rather victims, more prone to bullying and suicide than assailing anyone in a bathroom.

67 RecommendShareFlag

jimfaye commented 2 hours ago

j

jimfaye

Ellijay, GA

2h ago

The entire reason that she lost was that she was a WOMAN! Americans will NOT vote for a woman for President. Stop the finger pointing and blame. Democrats should never ever run another woman. Face the sad facts. Americans are too backward and ignorant to vote for a woman for President! Sad.

64 RecommendShareFlag

lne commented 7 hours ago

l

lne

New York, NY

7h ago

What you're saying, and it is probably correct, is that actually performance had nothing to do with this election.

The mere fact of inflation has been enough to topple governments across the free world.

High rates of inflation were felt all over the world and the US did very, very well among industrialized nations to keep inflation to 8% in 2022 and 4% in 2023. It's now down to 2.4%. The Infrastructure Act and CHIPS Act will bring manufacturing jobs to this country, unlike any of Trump's purported accomplishments.

But incumbent governments worldwide have been sunk, regardless of the obvious fact that inflation was conspicuously not their fault.

The best chance Democrats had was to use Biden's withdrawal to nominate someone totally unconnected to the current administration, which was the ONLY convincing way to run a 'change' campaign. Harris could not realistically pretend to be a fresh start, nor could she pretend to be unconnected to the increasingly toxic "progressive" wing of the party, despite trying very hard to disconnect herself from both.

Too bad that voters did not pay enough attention to how truly dangerous the alternative was. We will all pay the price.

63 RecommendShareFlag

Slana Spur commented 5 hours ago

S

Slana Spur

California

5h ago

I think French makes some interesting points, but I still can’t wrap my head around the fact that the clear majority of my fellow citizens have installed a man back into the most exalted office in our land who continues to falsely assert he won it in the last election—in fact, made The Big Lie a central point of his appeal. Not getting into his crass, crude, coarse and lewd political rhetoric or his personal behavior for lack of space. If my child’s teacher taught like Trump behaves, I’d want him removed from the classroom. I agree with several other writers—how can you convince your children character matters any more?

3 Replies63 RecommendShareFlag

Thomas Renner commented 8 hours ago

T

Thomas Renner

New York City

8h ago

I believe the DEMs should quite trump bashing, America knows who he is but chose him so except it and move on. Show what we would do to help America and point out what the GOP does or doesn't do. Stop the culture war and talk about bread and butter issues. Reach across the isle on every issue and point out when the GOP just says no. Trump promised everything to everyone so many will be disappointed, if we keep calm and carry on it could be a blue wave in the mid terms.

3 Replies60 RecommendShareFlag

Sardinal commented 8 hours ago

S

Sardinal

Guanacaste, CR

8h ago

A choice between curling and hurling is our predicament this morning.

"We read too much cultural significance into any given election. Every party and every movement can be one business cycle from defeat."

That is the most important point in this essay. It's a fine line between analyzing the results to learn and another to be paralyzed by this information.

1 Reply54 RecommendShareFlag

James K. Lowden commented 7 hours ago

J

James K. Lowden

Camden, Maine

7h ago

Not one vote — for Trump or Harris — turned on Afghanistan. French should know better. Yes, it wasn’t a good look. But as the man said, it was less important than the price of eggs in his daily life.

As for the media doing the sweeping, French says the press should pay more attention to the rock than the brooms. I disagree. Those are the election, not the issues. The media pays far too much attention to both.

There is endless horse race reporting, and breathless speculation. Daily on the front page, the New York Times showed poll trends. All we heard about was which voters in which states were feeling. Who had the momentum, of a thing with no mass?

By contrast, in decades of reading The Times, I remember exactly on article on Medicare for All, and very few articles on the "system" of healthcare in this country. The Times ran exactly one editorial on the topic, which bravely concluded that Americans would have to choose. Thanks for that.

The media could be a force for good in elections by covering the issues that are the basis for the campaign, not just the campaign itself. We should live to,see the day.

2 Replies52 RecommendShareFlag

MA commented 7 hours ago

M

MA

Brooklyn, NY

7h ago

@TK "especially when prices skyrocket after tariffs and/pr deportations."

Good point. It occurs to me that Trump's best strategy if he wants to succeed (regarding fiscal policy) would be to do nothing. Inflation has already been brought under control, and economic growth is good. No new taxes, spending, or tax cuts for the rich. Just continue to go around bloviating as you do and let the already-healthy economy do all the work.

This was effectively what he did in 2017-21, except for the unhelpful tax cut for the rich.

Unfortunately, I doubt he will do this; he assuredly believes his own nonsense, and a whole lot of working class Americans will regret their votes in short order.

52 RecommendShareFlag

Henry commented 8 hours ago

Henry

Henry

MA

8h ago

@Nomind -- 100% agree. The business cycle almost never aligns with policy changes. Policy takes a long time to filter down to underlying systems. I remember how impatient the naysayers were with Obama's stimulus and now, how Biden's slow and steady recovery from pandemic disruptions is tossed aside in a heartbeat.

Administrations take the credit for good times and the blame for economic problems that take sometimes take decades to erupt. George W. Bush's tax cuts were feckless, but the banking meltdown in 2007 goes back to the Reagan administration. Multiple administrations, including Clinton's, had their fingerprints on that one.

50 RecommendShareFlag

Tricia commented 7 hours ago

T

Tricia

California

7h ago

Blame the voters. They want grievance, and retribution. That is all they want. MAGA voters will be surprised to learn that there is going to be cutback in social security, a cutback in Medicare, and large deportation of immigrants, which will bring inflation back.

46 RecommendShareFlag

Reuben commented 8 hours ago

Reuben

Reuben

Australia

8h ago

@Roland Fagan

Re: "Trump... assembled [a] multiethnic working-class coalition" and "won a number of heavily Hispanic border counties in Texas."

It's no surprise Trump made inroads with Hispanic voters in border areas. Many Hispanic working-class voters face the same pressures as other working-class Americans. They face instability, low wages, and competition from undocumented workers willing to work for less without protections. The Democratic Party’s unwillingness to enforce policies like nationwide E-Verify leaves these workers vulnerable. They see their wages suppressed and job opportunities diminished, while the elite—those who benefit from cheap labor—dismiss their concerns as bigotry or unfounded fear.

The claim of the elite that illegal immigration benefits everyone is false. The working class, regardless of race, is squeezed by a system serving wealthy donors and corporations over American workers. Trump's message resonated with those who want accountability and fairness in the job market, which includes holding employers responsible for hiring undocumented labor at exploitative wages. If Democrats wish to regain these voters, they need to prioritize fair labor practices, enforceable protections, and a real commitment to ensuring that working-class wages are not undermined by illegal labor. The neglect of these concerns is why many Hispanic working-class voters, who had previously leaned towards the Democratic Party, are now supporting Trump and the Republicans.

46 RecommendShareFlag

Bob commented 2 hours ago

B

Bob

Evanston, IL

2h ago

"MAGA true believers will realize that their ideological dreams will quickly die if they can’t deliver the peace and prosperity they promised."

Don't count on it. MAGA will stick with Trump no matter what. The question is what the non-MAGA voters will do when Trump evicts all the undocumented and imposes his tariffs and we have 10% annual inflation and he allows Putin to take what he wants and Putin threatens Poland.

46 RecommendShareFlag

George commented 8 hours ago

G

George

NYC

8h ago

Virtually all of the post-election op-eds I've read have discussed what the Democrats did wrong.

Whether it's a conservative or liberal commentator; it's almost always discussed from this angle.

Perhaps what is being missed and should be discussed particularly by Democrats, is what the Republicans did right.

Yes, Trump focused on the "migrants" as a hot button issue. Easily creating an anger. And while inflation has eased -- the reality isn't being felt yet by many.

But if you look beyond these easily identified aspects one of the most critical decisions the Trump people made was to refuse to have him engage in a second debate with Kamala Harris.

Notably, he did poorly in the first debate even as it more often veered into personality rather than policy.

By avoiding a second debate Trump managed to keep the campaign from become "issue-oriented". He also stifled what were rising concerns regarding his mental state.

It was, frankly, an astute campaign tactic that achieved the primary purpose of denying Harris an opportunity to reach a broad national audience with her position on various policies.

By avoiding a second debate the Trump campaign freed up their candidate to speak without rebuttal as he travelled through the "swing States".

While I wouldn't suggest the Democrats not engage in self-reflection regarding the campaign result. It is also important to learn what the other side did well.

2 Replies45 RecommendShareFlag

ellessarre commented 6 hours ago

e

ellessarre

seattle

6h ago

Sigh...After Clinton, Bush inherited a great economy and wrecked it. Obama repaired it. After Obama, Trump inherited a good economy and then, with the help of his tax cuts and covid, wrecked it. Biden repaired it. Now, Trump is inheriting a good economy and....if he follows through on tariffs and widespread deportation, he will wreck it.

I realize that presidents do not control the economy but their actions or inactions certainly affect it.

1 Reply45 RecommendShareFlag

Vesuviano commented 5 hours ago

Vesuviano

Vesuviano

Altadena, California

5h ago

While David French makes a good analogy and also good points, I believe I have found a flaw that leads me to put in my two cents' worth below.

First, not all the people who voted for Trump are hurting economically. Biden has presided over record highs in the stock market, for example, and inflation has come down in the last year while wages have gone up.

Second, the influence of the right-wing noise machine/echo chamber is not mentioned even once in this column, and its influence is all over the election results. How else to explain the many reports of Trump voters whose personal finances are great, but who think the economy is awful? I work with one such person. His income has never been higher, but he thinks that Trump will "make bread affordable again."

And third, this election and its results are the culmination of a fifty-five-year effort by the right wing to take over the entire government. It started with a thing called the Powell Memo and will end with Project 2025.

Heaven help us.

44 RecommendShareFlag

joe morgan commented 3 hours ago

j

joe morgan

phila pa

3h ago

It's not that complicated. Fox news, Elon Musk, and the right-wing media won the election for trump. After Jan. 20, all the problems that trump promised to take care of will all be magically gone, just because that's what they will tell people, and people will believe it, just like they believed all the lies put forth by Fox, Musk etc, before the election.

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J commented 7 hours ago

J

J

Brooklyn

7h ago

@Beowulf He's untouchable - by a riot and coup, by ICE raids, concentration camps, and separated children, by tax relief for the rich, by tariffs which will drive higher cost of food and housing among other things, by deportation of immigrants who do jobs Americas won't (picking produce), by claiming and failing to eliminate income tax, taxes on tips, by removal of protections for overtime pay and healthcare (including reproductive care), and by reprehensible acts with women lacking consent.

What could make for such immunities? Resentment of the people.

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spud commented 7 hours ago

s

spud

NC

7h ago

I read this because I respect David French. Sorry to say, I am too tired of Trump, understanding Trump, caring about what Trump says, seeing Trump, trying to figure out how much damage Trump will do, why Trump was elected, and how I will survive four years of Trump. I'm just going to fold up my tent and find a rock to hide under.

1 Reply38 RecommendShareFlag

vince commented 7 hours ago

v

vince

maryland

7h ago

@Brian I believe you hit the nail on the head. The take away from this election for me is not what the Democrats could have done differently-no campaign or candidate is perfect so you can always point at something-but how do we educate the public and counter, democratically of course, the fact that most Americans get their (mis)information from unreliable sources.

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Susan S commented 7 hours ago

S

Susan S

New York, NY

7h ago

Mr. French’s commentary on the election results is smarter than many I have seen so far. There is another aspect that seems under recognized. We need more data, but so far it appears that Trump did not increase his vote share, while the Democrats hemorrhaged votes. If that is correct, then Trump did not win the election, the Democrats lost it. An early data analysis shows that the three top election issues were inflation, immigration, and a focus “more on cultural issues like transgender issues rather than helping the middle class.” The same analysis shows that the last “was the most frequent criticism among swing voters who broke for Trump ( 28)." I think the question was badly put, but the Democrats’ blind embrace of gender ideology to the detriment of women’s rights and spaces and the improper medicalization of troubled children needs to be examined. On this, the Democrats (I speak as a Democrat) have only themselves to blame. Many women, including me, tried to warn our electeds they needed to change course, but they refused to listen. I voted for Harris because I was well aware the alternative was dire. But many women stayed home, and others voted for Trump because of this.

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Thinline commented 6 hours ago

T

Thinline

Minneapolis, MN

6h ago

Harris chose the right “rock.” Democracy. Americans should worry about Democracy over the price of eggs.

War of course is a weightier issue. But do Americans care about it really? Prior to the disastrous Afghan pullout, a vast majority of Americans didn’t even know the war was still on.

No, democracy was on the line and a majority of our citizens just didn’t care. Too complicated? Too scary? Or maybe when push comes to shove, the work of democracy (learning; thinking; good judgment) pales compared to voting for magical promises.

No matter. We have almost certainly just witnessed the last clean, clear, fair election we will see for quite some time.

Already Trump supporters are using recent results to readjudicate the 2022 midterms. This will be fodder for not accepting the upcoming midterms, which Republicans will lose if Trump makes his policies into reality. And he will.

Democracy is the biggest rock of all and Harris was correct, morally, to throw it. Harris lost. But America threw in the towel.

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MGH commented 6 hours ago

M

MGH

New York

6h ago

@FW

Evidence of that is that the first 8 states that were called for Trump are all in the lowest 10 states for GDP, health and education.

They are also all deep red states controlled completely by Republicans.

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Elaine commented 3 hours ago

E

Elaine

CA

3h ago

I can't help but notice that many people, including myself are, very sad, and even mad about the election. However, I don't see any plots to overturn the election. There won't be any violence on January 6th and Biden and Harris will attend inauguration day. The democrats, including Biden, Harris, Obama (etc) are all talking about a "peaceful transfer of power". There's lots of finger pointing going on right now and everyone I know has checked out of the news, at least for now. We do know that in many countries incumbents have lost due to inflation caused by a worldwide pandemic. We also know that the US faired better than all those countries but, it seems, people could not connect the dots from the pandemic to inflation. The democrats need to not turn inwards because they will need to protect our country from what will surely be a lot of emergencies and fires to be put out, especially on the world stage. Our allies are preparing for the worst with another Trump term, and so should we.

1 Reply36 RecommendShareFlag

brooke herter james commented 8 hours ago

b

brooke herter james

south reading, VT

8h ago

And now we must throw into the curling analogy the fact that the stone is no longer composed of rock hard truths. Makes its trajectory all the more unpredictable.

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Joy B commented 7 hours ago

Joy B

Joy B

North Port Florida

7h ago

@Reuben

I hear you, but I find your reasoning flawed. Trump is for NO Overtime Pay, no Labor Unions, meaning he is for the business class. Tell me he will go after Con-Agra, Tyson's, Butterball, or the growers in the Agricultural states, etc. and demand they stop importing laborers. Tell me where you see the signs he will give out work permits to these workers. I remember Tyson's in Arkansas had a sweep by the federal government to get rid of undocumented workers. They were taken to court and I could even afford their monetary penalty. Those companies just brought in new laborers that were also undocumented courtesy of the Catholic Church. One group removed, another comes in. It hasn't changed for years. Tell me that the Republican governor Sarah Hucklebee Sanders won't woo Trump to exempt her workers in the sweep to rid the US of undocumented workers. DeSantis did the same thing here in Florida, all of a sudden we had no roofers, lawn mowers, construction workers, and restaurant workers. These were experienced workers, they were replaced by incompetent workers if they could find any. Now, that Arkansas Gov. Sanders and I assume other Republicans did/will lower the age of childhood labor, allow them to work in more dangerous work places, and for longer hours.

These steps do not Make America Great. So sad.

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