WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — President Donald Trump declined to rule out a recession this year as the economy stutters from his efforts to impose tariffs and rebuild the U.S. manufacturing sector, acknowledging in an interview broadcast Sunday that “it takes a little time” before Americans will see a payoff from his policies.

Trump’s recognition of the turbulence in the U.S. economy was a reversal from previous cheering that his policies would deliver quick victories to voters and businesses, and it stood in contrast to reassurances from his own advisers Sunday that no recession was in sight. Trump also downplayed the dropping stock market despite years in which he claimed credit for its rise, saying in the Fox News interview that “you have to do what’s right” even if markets don’t like it.

The recognition of the economic disruption was notable given that Trump swept into office in part because of voter discontent about years of inflation under President Joe Biden. But that inflation slowed in Biden’s final year in office, and most economists say that Trump inherited a fairly strong and stable economy.

Trump pushed Biden on the stock market, inflation and the overall economy — all issues on which he is now telling voters to look the other way.

Asked by Fox News anchor Maria Bartiromo on “Sunday Morning Futures” whether he was expecting a recession this year, Trump said: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of, it takes a little time. It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.”

Trump said his economic policies shouldn’t be swayed by the broad-based market sell-off in recent weeks as he has moved to impose tariffs on countries around the world, most notably hiking levies on China. Mexico and Canada are also facing large new tariffs, although Trump has repeatedly postponed them.

The S&P 500 index is down 3.8 percent since Trump was inaugurated Jan. 20, and down 6 percent from its all-time high on Feb. 19. Consumer sentiment is at a 15-month low as worries compound about layoffs and rising prices.

“If you look at China, they have a 100-year perspective. We have a quarter. We go by quarters, and you can’t go by that. You have to do what’s right,” Trump said about the stock market. “What we’re doing is we’re building a tremendous foundation for the future.”

He said that businesses always say they want “clarity” about tariffs, but that’s “almost a sound bite.” He added that tariffs “may go up. I don’t think we’ll go down.”

The president has repeatedly postponed tariffs against Canada and Mexico but said in the interview that April 2 was the final deadline. Separate 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports are set to go into effect Wednesday.

Inflation has hit Americans in other ways that Trump has sought to downplay. As avian influenza has driven egg prices, which started to rise under Biden, even higher under Trump, the president has also started to tell Americans not to focus on them. Trump on Saturday reposted an article by the conservative activist Charlie Kirk, whose headline was “Shut Up About Egg Prices — Trump Is Saving Consumers Millions.”

Trump and his top aides have started to try to shift the discussion around inflation after hammering Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris about it for years. Trump and his team say their “America First” economic policies are focused more on building jobs and opportunities inside U.S. borders than prioritizing low prices for consumers.

“Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American Dream. The American Dream is rooted in the concept that any citizen can achieve prosperity, upward mobility and economic security,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the New York Economic Club on Thursday. “For too long, the designers of multilateral trade deals have lost sight of this. International economic relations that do not work for the American people must be reexamined.”

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Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday that there were no plans to change the steel and aluminum tariffs — and, unlike his boss, he dismissed concerns about a recession.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is now forecasting that U.S. economic output will decline 2.8 percent in the first quarter of 2025 after nearly three years of growth. Economists define a recession as two successive quarters of decline.

Economists repeatedly warned about a looming recession during Biden’s four years in office, but it never materialized.

Americans should “absolutely not” brace for a recession, Lutnick said on the program.

Trump is “going to win for the American people. That’s just the way it’s going to be. There’s going to be no recession in America,” he said. “What there’s going to be is global tariffs are going to come down because President Trump has said, ‘You want to charge us 100 percent? We’re going to charge you 100 percent.’”

Lutnick added: “I would never bet on recession. No chance.”

Trump and his advisers have argued that the end result of his policies will be that prices for U.S.-made goods are lower while foreign-made ones are higher, and that the health of the overall economy will be better once their policies are allowed time to take effect, with a lower deficit and lower interest rates. They point to decisions by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which announced plans for a $100 billion investment in Arizona, and similar announcements from other major companies as evidence that their efforts are already working.

Many economists disagree with their assessment, saying that tariffs will significantly increase prices, posing a challenge to efforts to lower interest rates. Rebuilding the U.S. manufacturing sector will be far more complex than reimposing trade barriers, some of them say, noting that U.S. manufacturing jobs have been declining for generations because of a complex cocktail of automation, trade policies, the rise of China and shifts in corporate behavior.

And Trump’s vow not to touch the politically popular programs that are the major elements of federal spending — Social Security and Medicare — will make cutting the deficit nearly impossible, economists say, especially as the president proposes new tax cuts.

“It’s important for people to realize we run $2 trillion deficits and Donald Trump is going to try to balance the budgets of the United States of America,” Lutnick said. “We’re going to bring manufacturing back, that’s where we’re going. … Will there be distortions? Of course. Foreign goods may get a little more expensive, but American goods are going to get cheaper.”

Alfaro and Torbati reported from Washington.

Michael Birnbaum is a White House correspondent for The Washington Post, covering the Trump presidency. He previously covered national security and diplomacy from Washington and served more than a decade in Europe as The Post’s bureau chief in Brussels, Moscow and Berlin. He joined The Post in 2008. Send him secure tips on Signal at @mbwp.01.

Mariana Alfaro is a reporter for The Washington Post's breaking political news team. The El Salvador native joined The Post in 2019. She can be reached via Signal at mariana_alfaro.10.

Yeganeh Torbati joined The Washington Post in 2020 as a reporter writing about the tax, budget, trade and regulatory decisions made by Washington’s power brokers.

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