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Harris expands lead in 2 new polls - link
Poast new message in this thread
Date: October 28th, 2024 3:20 PM Author: Olive deep gaming laptop son of senegal https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-expands-lead-two-polls-1975782?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1730122136 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619756&forum_id=2:#48250554) |
Date: October 28th, 2024 3:21 PM Author: Olive deep gaming laptop son of senegal These on top of the yougov poll showing her with a 4 point lead. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619756&forum_id=2:#48250555) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 3:24 PM Author: Rusted dead azn biden was +8.5 against trump nationally in 2020, and wound up skating by with +2 or less in key swing states.
this article cites polls putting kamala up +4, with polling average of +1.5 nationally.
given these two facts, do you think this article indicates that kamala is likely to win the 2024 election? |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 3:26 PM Author: Insane nighttime bbw giraffe trafalgar 2024: tie in WI, +3 PA, +2 MI, +2 GA trafalgar 2020: (Biden) +1, +2 PA, +2 MI, +5 GA
Plug in the trafalgar polling miss from 2020 and Harris wins the election. Trafalgar has virtually always overstated GOP support in races since they started polling in 2018. They had some hilarious whoppers in 2022 polling, including in the MI and PA races.
You're just guessing on what the polls show is a coin-flip race. |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 3:34 PM Author: Rusted dead azn https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/wisconsin/
trafalgar wisconsin: +2 biden, +1 biden, even in october polls
actual result: +.6. therefore, the trafalgar average in october actually favored biden.
but, sure, ignore these pesky outliers (i.e. the pollsters that most accurately predicted the results) and compare the polling average.
RCP average: +8 biden, result: +1 (rounded up!) biden.
but, sure, it's a coinflip! |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 3:39 PM Author: Insane nighttime bbw giraffe Very disingenuous of you. I used each of the final trafalgar polls. Harris wins if she loses WI but wins GA. So yes, if trafalgar performs as it did in 2020, Harris wins. I think it’s more likely that the big pollsters are better at capturing the trump vote than trafalgar suddenly becoming more left leaning. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619756&forum_id=2:#48250601) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 3:45 PM Author: Rusted dead azn you're being disingenuous or you do not understand statistics.
polling that it's *EVEN* and then the race being less than 1pt is accurate. unless you think that they are predicting a literal tie.
second, all polling is going to have outliers, even those conducted by the same organization using the same methodology. that's why it's best to consider multiple polls, even from the same organization. it's not disingenuous to do so, it's how it's supposed to be done.
but, even aside from that, they were insanely accurate. i can't believe you're pointing to them saying it's "even" as a bad poll with biden won by ~.6. that's safely within their first std. dev. of their margin of area. a result that would be very likely based on just that one poll.
but, good luck side-stepping the meat of my OP, re: this poast being about kamala's national polling and how that looks considering 2016 and 2020. it's not good, champ. |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 3:48 PM Author: diverse organic girlfriend (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619756&forum_id=2:#48250626) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 3:57 PM Author: Insane nighttime bbw giraffe the "meat" of your post is that we must add a bunch of points to trump's lead because of 2020 polling misses, which by the way weren't distributed evenly across the country. Suddenly the less than 1 pt of rcp separation becomes a huge trump lead. I'm just pointing out that there isn't a big gap anymore between the right-wing pollsters (trafalgar, inside advantage, rasmussen) who showed a different race in 2020 and the public polls that had relatively big leads for biden. If Trafalgar is as accurate as they were in 2020 you cannot seriously argue that Trump is anything more than 50-50 to a slight favorite right now. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619756&forum_id=2:#48250656) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 4:00 PM Author: diverse organic girlfriend "which by the way weren't distributed evenly across the country"
Given that this country decides elections by EC and not by popular vote, that is ok. It isn't uncommon that the winner of the popular vote doesn't win the election. |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 4:04 PM Author: Insane nighttime bbw giraffe RCP was spot on for PA but missed by lot in WI. Tiny miss in GA that overstated trump support. It's stupid to just add or adjust points because "I remember trump did so much better than the polls in 2020!". It's quite possible trump overperforms most of the averages again. But if he did, he'd be doing so despite right-leaning pollsters not showing any substantive gains for him. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619756&forum_id=2:#48250685) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 4:31 PM Author: Titillating Round Eye you pee sitting down and fart cum from your asshole when you aren't talking out of it (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619756&forum_id=2:#48250769) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 4:29 PM Author: Rusted dead azn even in trafalgar trump overperformed in just about every poll in 2020. they now have him by a +2-4 point favorite in every swing state aside from wisconsin, where he has a +.2 lead.
so, even if we account for their "right-wing" bias (which resulted in them predicting most accurately but still overestimating biden mostly), trump has a fairly comfortable lead in the swing states. |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 4:32 PM Author: dull pontificating legal warrant library it's weird that there was a whole election between 2020 and 2024 and you seem to just gloss over how poorly the R pollsters dropped the ball **in the most recent* datapoint.
I guess its easier to talk about 2020 because it reinforces your narrative that dems always underperform
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Date: October 28th, 2024 4:35 PM Author: Rusted dead azn no, it's because you're stupid and interpret "trump always overperforms" with "dems always underperform." because you're stupid.
no one says dems always underperform and that isn't borne out in the data. trump tends to overperform. there's a variety of theories on this, but i think it's pretty safe to say it's because libs made trump synonymous with hitler (literally!) and saying his name is like voldermort to you people. so people don't answer pollsters honestly.
hth. |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 4:37 PM Author: Buck-toothed red tanning salon To be fair,
If you actually think a "Wake Up Honey, A Bunch Of GOPe Nobodies Are On The Ballot!" (aka 2022) election is even remotely comparable to a "Wake Up Honey, Trump Is On The Ballot!" (aka 2020 and 2024) election in terms of gauging likely enthusiam + likely turnout + general interest in politith from normie voters on the right, you're literally so fucking goddamn stupid that it isn't even worth having a discussion with you to begin with, Ari.
Source: I fucking despise the GOPe almost as much as I hate the Democrats, and yet for all of his many flaws, I still love Trump. MANY such cases! |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 4:46 PM Author: Rusted dead azn every gf i've had since 2016 has said "please don't tell my friends" when i tell them i'm a trumpmo.
several bros have sworn me to very strict secrecy on mentioning to their WIVES they voted for trump.
kamala is literally, right now, making TRUMP = HITLER the #1 message of her campaign. and somehow libs are scratching their heads why trump's polling doesn't reflect the outcome. |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 5:26 PM Author: Buck-toothed red tanning salon To be fair,
"Shy Trumpmos" are, indeed, still a real thing in many parts of the country (sadly).
"Shy Kamalamamas"? LJL. Sure thing, champ. |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 5:31 PM Author: Rusted dead azn *guy trying to fuck some shitlib jewess answers the phone*
"oh, you're conducting a poll? well OF COURSE i'm voting for kamala. i'm not a NAZI! in fact, i think it was more like 7 million. anways, gotta go!" |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 3:49 PM Author: Titillating Round Eye you pee sitting down and fart cum from your asshole (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619756&forum_id=2:#48250627) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 3:27 PM Author: Olive deep gaming laptop son of senegal I think it's a lot better news for Kamala than if the polls were going in the opposite direction. I think Trump is more likely than not to win, but I seem to detect momentum in the air for Harris. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619756&forum_id=2:#48250565) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 3:28 PM Author: purple free-loading death wish doctorate Saw a newsweek headline claiming Nate Silver predicted a probable path to victory for Kamala. Turns out Silver had said something like, if she wins both of Pennsylvania and Georgia, she probably wins. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619756&forum_id=2:#48250566) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 4:32 PM Author: Excitant aqua principal's office Everyone on the losing end of these dumb polling debates will come back and own their mistakes after the election, right? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619756&forum_id=2:#48250776) |
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Date: October 28th, 2024 4:50 PM Author: anal jade school I just KNEW this would be a reverse PWN but decided to peek ITT anyway. Well-played double reverse my friend. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619756&forum_id=2:#48250831) |
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Date: November 7th, 2024 5:53 PM Author: Soren "Bob" Odenkierkegaard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5619756&forum_id=2:#48307193) |