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Selzer "reviewing the data" after missing Iowa by 16 points
| teabaggervance | 11/06/24 |
| cowstack | 11/06/24 |
| ...,,..;...,,..,..,...,,,;.., | 11/06/24 |
| :;:;;;:;:;;;:;:;:;:; | 11/06/24 |
| UN peacekeeper | 11/06/24 |
| richard clock | 11/06/24 |
| Donald MASE Trump | 11/06/24 |
| ceci n'est pas un avocat | 11/06/24 |
| Charles Tyrwhitt Dad | 11/06/24 |
| richard clock | 11/06/24 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: November 6th, 2024 10:16 AM Author: teabaggervance "Tonight, I’m of course thinking about how we got where we are," Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducts the Iowa Poll, said in a statement.
"The poll findings we produced for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom did not match what the Iowa electorate ultimately decided in the voting booth today. I’ll be reviewing data from multiple sources with hopes of learning why that happened. And, I welcome what that process might teach me."
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/05/pollster-j-ann-selzer-to-review-data-after-iowa-poll-misses-trump-win/76085598007/ |
Date: November 6th, 2024 10:18 AM Author: cowstack "Please support my research by sending donations to: Port Authority Bus Terminal, New York NY, Attn: Ann" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628261&forum_id=2:#48298664) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 10:19 AM Author: ...,,..;...,,..,..,...,,,;.., (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628261&forum_id=2:#48298679) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 10:20 AM Author: :;:;;;:;:;;;:;:;:;:; Lmao (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628261&forum_id=2:#48298688) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 10:21 AM Author: UN peacekeeper (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628261&forum_id=2:#48298696) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 10:25 AM Author: richard clock (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628261&forum_id=2:#48298728) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 10:25 AM Author: Donald MASE Trump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628261&forum_id=2:#48298731) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 10:25 AM Author: ceci n'est pas un avocat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628261&forum_id=2:#48298734) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 10:22 AM Author: Charles Tyrwhitt Dad I'm giving her a break. She correctly called Iowa for Trump in 2016 and 2020 and in 2020 she correctly called the 8-9% margin of victory for Trump when all other polls showed a neck to neck race. She wasn't coming into this season with a history of anti-Trump polling.
Her model genuinely failed her this time. And in a staggering way given that Trump expanded his margin of victory in Iowa from 2020. It's probably a combination of the MOE tilting to one extreme end and a growing deliberate refusal by GOP-leaning voters to respond to polls.
Her mistake was not to immediately say there's something wrong with the model's outcome this time. Iowa got redder in 2022 from 2020 and that alone should have told her the model was off. Any state that went redder from 2020 to 2022 was not going to suddenly revert course and vote for Harris. |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 10:27 AM Author: richard clock I think this is right. Low propensity voters showed up in droves and they voted for Trump. Her methodology doesn't pick them up because she assumes ambivalence leads to not voting, which is usually right. What she missed was how pissed off people who normally tune out politics are about prices and woke bs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5628261&forum_id=2:#48298745) |