Date: October 24th, 2024 12:47 PM
Author: butt cheeks (🍑 Pronouns: Ausländer/Raus döp dödö döp)
skipping past the regressions, his conclusions are:
Quick hits from the data:
FL Dems lost 1.15M registrations - bigger than Trump's original win margin (371K) by 3x
Even smallest D loss (NV -55K) bigger than Biden's margin there (33.6K).
Independent pools are massive: NC 2.77M, FL 3.58M vs much smaller margins.
With even independents splits, these registration changes flip every 2020 Biden state in the table. Dems need big independent advantages just to get back to competitive.
Scenarios:
Only NV could flip D with strong independent performance
FL likely out of reach (Trump +1.35M with even split)
PA flips hard - Biden +81K becomes Trump +233K before independents
AZ/NC margins could swing wildly based on independent preferences
Sidenote, given the million person change in registration in Florida, I think Nate might be out 100k if that other guy took him up on the bet.
Mom pick me up, I'm scared.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5617340&forum_id=2#48235091)