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Redditors think the S&P500 provides a Guaranteed 8% Return
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Date: September 19th, 2024 10:31 PM Author: Karlstack (Retired) It’s unthinkable to them that it could just go flat like Japan, China, Europe, Middle East, South America stonks. It provides a guaranteed return except in the event of a collapse in which case, “you’ll have bigger problems than your stock portfolio.” They aren’t “pretty sure” or “mostly sure.” It’s a bona fide Certainty. |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:28 AM Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,.;,.,.,:;,,....,:,..,:.;.,:.::,. and they've styled on fags like you predicting a flatlining for the past 20 years.
I'm 35 and just hit $3M net worth on a relatively modest salary by trusting the S&P500. You? LJL
This was actually the single most valuable thing I learned from my financial economics class or any class in college outside the math and stats departments. |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:31 AM Author: giga weed (🧐) Tho modetht! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112429) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 9:20 AM Author: Wang Hernandez Show your math on this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112648) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 4:17 PM Author: sealclubber modeth thalary pwuth $2.5m inheritance pwuth a couple of good yearth in the market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114041) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 2:00 PM Author: When I grow up I want to be a pumo Cr. Learning the efficient markets hypothesis alone generates a positive return on four years of college tuition. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48113594) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:24 PM Author: coyote ugly tp (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114900) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 10:25 AM Author: Karlstack (Retired) Tbh I do have $$$ in it, I just expect to get rugpulled at some point and for people like you to be like “well yeah, set stop losses and diversify, idiot.” (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116545) |
Date: September 19th, 2024 10:36 PM Author: .......,,,,,,,....... That’s the Boglehead philosophy as well (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111521) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 10:46 PM Author: .......,,,,,,,....... https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/s/J8sa1IGBHo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111587) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:01 PM Author: baked sink burger These low risk Melvin analytical geniuses get tons of pussy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111665) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:42 AM Author: winrar (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112441) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:33 PM Author: ceci n'est pas un avocat low risk analytical pussy is the best pussy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48113261) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:34 PM (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48113263) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 10:49 PM Author: ;;;..........;.;.;.;.;.;.;.,,;.;.,,,;.;. in the event of a collapse in which case, “you’ll have bigger problems than your stock portfolio.
This part is true. What else are you going to do with your money besides buy into the Jewish money letters casino? Once you have a House and Guns and Ammo, what else is going to help you when permanent ITE comes? |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 10:58 PM Author: Soren "Bob" Odenkierkegaard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111644) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:33 AM Author: giga weed (🧐) No ding-dong the point is it's perfectly possible for a market to go sideways for decades absent a collapse. It's not like there's a binary "number go up" or "total chaos communism". (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112431) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 10:02 AM Author: ;;;..........;.;.;.;.;.;.;.,,;.;.,,,;.;. I wouldn't call that a "collapse" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116486) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:07 PM Author: theranchman im starting to think theyre not wrong. all of our policies are inflationary. why exactly do you disagree, financial guru karlstack? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111684) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:07 PM Author: Florida Surgeon General Joseph A. Ladapo it's up 91% in the last 5 years, so if they think it's 8% a year they are indeed retarded (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111687) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:13 PM Author: ........,,,,,,......,.,.,.,,,,,,,,,, Every important and influential person in the US owns a shit ton of stock.
If you're going to invest in anything, why not invest in the single thing that the US Political system is designed to protect? |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:34 PM Author: I'm gay tp The line must go up (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111769) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 10:24 AM Author: ............,.,.,.,.......,,.,., (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112807) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 4:18 PM Author: sealclubber real estate? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114046) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 12:15 AM Author: .,..,.,,.,.,..,.,.,.,..,..,..,.,..,,.,.,.,. Both (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48115848) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:16 PM Author: Christopher's Disease Easy choice for you to make, given your complete lack of capital with which to stand behind it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111718) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:18 PM Author: Karlstack (Retard) as long as US allows immigration, the S&P will continue to go higher. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111726) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:20 PM Author: zurich is stained You can’t really call anything a certainty, but what are you ridiculing here? In all likelihood they’re right. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111737) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:23 PM Author: posting in histrionic thread I don't think you "get" economics (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111746) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 11:08 PM Author: dead link clicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48115632) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 12:16 AM Author: .,..,.,,.,.,..,.,.,.,..,..,..,.,..,,.,.,.,. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48115849) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:37 PM No, they're expecting an 8% average. That you don't understand the difference between expected and guaranteed value explains a lot about your life. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111774) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:29 AM Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,.;,.,.,:;,,....,:,..,:.;.,:.::,. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111963) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48113298) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 11:08 PM Author: dead link clicker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48115636) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 8:03 AM Author: Otto Skorzeny (FAGGOTCHIPPER / Hegemon) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116318) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 8:11 AM Author: giga weed (🧐) (OP says one thing)
"No, redditors are definitely not thinking that, they're smarter than that."
Yeah man, or maybe cowshit is right that people legitimately believe there is less a chance of number going down than nuclear war? |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:39 PM Author: \'\'\"\"\'\'\'\" if you put tail hedge on then you could probably do very well in case it pops. worst would be stagflation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111780) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:41 PM Author: disco fries (28.5 fortnights to Teewinot friends - 355lbs) A lot of these redditors are saving in their plans at work, which are great ways to take tax advantages, but those plans are predatory as fuck and administration fees eat up that dividend return, and with that drag, these employment plans are not going to perform as advertised. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111800) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:58 PM Author: theranchman lol nice word salad disco.
"eat up that dividend return" - the word "that" in this sentence reference "tax advantages" in the prior. two wholly distinct concepts
and your threatening conclusion is that they do not perform as advertised. to whom is this the relevant question rather than "would that money, tax adjusted, outperform if put in the SPX or the plan" |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:45 AM Author: zurich is stained do you have any evidence that administrative fees eat significantly into gains in 401k plans? i don't pay very close attention, but i think mine charges like $50 a quarter or some shit, same with my wife's. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112562) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 9:07 AM Author: disco fries (28.5 fortnights to Teewinot friends - 355lbs) My wife’s plans charge about 0.95% If the dividend yield is about 2%, almost half of that is going to admin charges of the plan itself. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112610) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 9:17 AM Author: ,..,,,,,,....,,,..., It is very on brand for you to be in a terrible fee-laden 401k that probably involves kickbacks between employer and advisor. Normal 401k now have Vanguard funds with like 0.1% admin fees on top. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112637) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 9:29 AM Author: disco fries (28.5 fortnights to Teewinot friends - 355lbs) Her plan has FXAIX, which is a great fund with a 0.015% fund expense ratio. The problem isn't her fund options, it's the plan itself. They are charging her $4,000 a year just to have an account open. |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:35 PM Author: ceci n'est pas un avocat If you are familiar with plans still charging predatory fees in 2024 give me a call because there are million$ to be made in erisa class actions (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48113264) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: disco fries (28.5 fortnights to Teewinot friends - 355lbs) I am aware of two plans that are charging in the neighborhood of 0.9-1.0 percent right off the top for nothing and both plans have thousands of participants. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48113300) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:42 PM Author: Christopher's Disease Administration fees with my plan are a flat $12 a year and ~0.015% expense ratio lol. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48113288) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:19 AM Author: Tim Daotua They’re right, it’s a chill 8% return right until it goes to zero. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111940) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:25 AM Author: ..,.,,,...,..,,.,...,.,,.,.. The amount of uncertainty in capital market assumptions is insane. Even over a 30 year time horizon you can get absolutely fucked:
https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-return-forecasts.html
Imagine getting the 5th percentile US equity returns of 3.1% CAGR for 30 years. |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:28 AM Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,.;,.,.,:;,,....,:,..,:.;.,:.::,. 3.1% returns! Oh the humanity!!!! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111960) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:46 AM Author: ChadGPT-5 "stocks only go up!" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112008) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:51 AM Author: AZNgirl dating Single A player instead of Ohtani The last thing the US has going for it is printing fraud Jew money which juices corporate profits and the stook market. Once stock gains are gone or even go to 1-2% annual for a ten year period then lol, its over (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112012) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 1:03 AM Author: theranchman you, like disco, are making absolutely no sense in your causality (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112037) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 11:11 PM Author: dead link clicker Your investment acumen is widely known, and lulzy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48115643) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:53 AM Author: https://imgur.com/a/IkQnGlr Only a Canadian would think this is insightful (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112016) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 3:34 AM Author: .....,,,,,...,,,,,..,.,,,,,.,,. First, that’s the expected average over a long period of time (i.e. we could be down 20% in one year and up 30% one year but it evens out over the long term out to 8% gain)
And it’s not just Reddit. The financial planning and wealth management industries take this as an absolute and undeniable truth. Probably because most people realistically can’t retire unless it’s true. |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 6:59 AM Author: Karlstack (Retired) If it were a total certainty, there’d be no equity risk premium. It would all be priced in. It would actually return less pre-tax than a 30y treasury. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112400) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 2:25 PM Author: theranchman karlstack took his intro to market theory class on youtube yesterday! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48113678) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 5:34 PM Author: subcontinental computer genius S&P500 had puny and at times negative inflation adjusted returns for decades after the late 1960s.
November 1968 to November 1988: inflation adjusted price return, -1.38%. Inflation adjusted total return (w dividend reinvestment), 2.73%.
November 1968 to September 1985: inflation adjusted price return, -3.27%. Inflation adjusted total return, 0.9%
worst case-November 1968 to July 1982: inflation adjusted price return, -6.89%. Inflation adjusted total return, -2.94%.
all percentage returns annualized
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Date: September 20th, 2024 6:31 PM Author: ,..,,,,,,....,,,..., Wow that must have been a disaster for anyone who only bought at the top and only sold at the bottom. How did starting to earn and invest in this period play out for boomers? Are they all broke now? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114513) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:28 PM Author: subcontinental computer genius You had to wait 16 years for the market to retain its 1966 peak.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/how-to-survive-the-worst-bear-market-of-all-time-120034754.html |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:47 PM Author: Karlstack (Retired) And the last time we had a yield curve de-inversion without a recession? Late 60s. None of them want to hear it |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 12:05 AM Author: subcontinental computer genius Stocks have had negative returns during periods of yield curve steepening since the 60s.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bull-steepening-is-bearish-for-stocks-part-two/
I don't see how price earning multiples can inflate beyond their current levels. Unless there is significant earnings growth, which is unlikely in an economic slowdown, stock prices ought to drop in the medium term. It's reason to keep some powder dry in mmfs that can b deployed when stocks fall from nosebleed levels. |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:28 AM Author: Alien vs Predator vs Brown vs Board of Education Excellent critique of Reddit from the most Reddity of posters. Edit: wtf that’s cowgod (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112426) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:34 AM Author: ,..,,,,,,....,,,..., You’re right that redditors are dumb and have no understanding of volatility or the drivers of long-term stock returns. But even the markets you cite as flat are up over the last 5/10 years. Not up as much as the US but far better than negative real rate safe assets. Avoiding stocks in your long-term investments so you can feel superior to people who lost $$$ in various bubbles is even dumber than being a redditor and guarantees that you remain poor. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112540) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:48 AM Author: zurich is stained i'm not even sure that's what cowgod is advocating. he's just ridiculing redditors for thinking that it's a sure thing that the s&p will average 8-10% per year. it's not sure in the sense that nothing is guaranteed, but there is a very long track record of US stocks increasing significantly over time. could that stop someday? sure. what is the point of saying that? this is like ridiculing a redditor for saying he's absolutely certain that an an engine won't fall off a plane and into his house. LOL that idiot doesn't know that that is a CERTAINTY! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112564) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 9:57 AM Author: Young and fresh Bboooooooooom (Fraud@fraud.com) Lol redditors can die and rot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116470) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:51 AM Author: So we looked at the data Hm what is different about the US vs all these other countries, why does the world keep buying US debt and equity, it's a mystery which cowgod will never unravel (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112568) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:52 AM Author: jewish pussy is a blessing thread backfired, IMO.
Discuss |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:58 AM Author: winrar Karlstack (Retired) is a Joke and Loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112578) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 9:05 AM Author: https://imgur.com/a/IkQnGlr Karlstack is dumber than every Indian. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112602) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 9:18 AM Author: zurich is stained op is cowgod, bro
he's been ridiculing me on the boart re my investment practices for the last month plus. meanwhile, i put my entire 401k balance into VOO, SCHD, SCHG, VGT, and SMH. in the last two weeks it's gone from like $690k to $790k. |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 1:42 PM Author: Karlstack (Retired) Why are you so poor? Aren’t you a Partner? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48113522) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 2:13 PM Author: giga weed (🧐) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48113655) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:44 PM Author: zurich is stained aren't you actually poor? my nw is around $2.8 mil rn. it will be about $15 million or more in 20 years. although maybe not because we have no idea what the future will bring. for instance, my 401k has gone from $700k to $788k in the last month alone, but it could go to zero any day now, we have no idea whatsoever. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48115012) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 11:13 PM Author: Karlstack (Retired) You sound soooo Gen X 😭 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48115650) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 11:05 AM Author: Karlstack (Retard) no, u (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112924) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 9:17 AM Author: brian lefevre if you just lit money on fire until there was no money anymore forever then humanity would be much better off and most useless people would just die (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112639) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 11:03 AM But then how would I pay hookers (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112912) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 5:34 PM Author: ,..,,,,,,....,,,..., If there were no money hookers would be even more willing to work for food and drugs. The challenge would be getting enough food and drugs, especially for those of us in the class that would be sacrificed to make a skull pyramid in the post-capitalist world. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114372) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:44 PM It seems like we should keep money so we can pay hookers, so far that's worked pretty well for me (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114730) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 11:05 AM Author: Oh, you travel? ( ) bought 50K worth of QQQ this morning and now I'm Losing wtf (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112929) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 2:23 PM Author: Gregor It does. And where else are they supposed to put their cash? Turo fleet rentals? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48113673) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 4:13 PM Author: Karlstack (Retired) I was really just looking for an “I am most likely right. You are most likely wrong. Since I am acting like I know everything here is some proof that I know something. Here are some reasons why I think the US is different from these other countries. Here is why I think the national debt situation won’t fuck us over. Here is why I think losing the petrodollar/reserve currency status doesn’t matter. Here is why I think our military that enforces petrodollars won’t just get all of its carriers sunk by coordinated drone attacks. Here is why I think SPY won’t crab for 23 years (inflation adjusted) like it did from 1969-1992….. champ.”
But all anyone can tell me is the Same Thing we’ve all heard before. I want to discover truth and reveal New Facts. Not backward looking data that says nothing but, “boomers became easily rich.” |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 4:32 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe You wrote the OP with a "lol at these reddit 'tards" tone that caused the backlash. Why is the S&P 500 index a good investment over the long-haul? 1) US reserve currency status, 2) a small chunk of the S&P is too big to fail (major financial corp and tech companies that the US and world economy depends on), 3) unlike your other examples, the companies in the index are very well-diversified mega-MNC's with revenue streams all around the world, 4) the most powerful people in the world a major stakeholders.
Altogether, well diversified indexing is as good as it gets. I think the sentiment that "if this thing generates shit returns over my 30+ years of working, then everything is fucked" is a pretty sound one. |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 5:09 PM Author: Karlstack (Retired) Aren’t you that guy who’s always wrong about everything (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114263) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:40 PM Author: https://imgur.com/a/IkQnGlr He's #2 after u (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114706) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:19 PM I'm of the opinion you should just index the whole planet. The US is about 60% of the global market cap, so 60%ish of your portfolio should be the US, which you can do with a domestic whole market fund. The rest of the world is about 40% which you can mirror pretty closely with VEU or similar. I have no idea if the US will continue to overperform global stocks, but that's why we're indexing it. Keep enough cash on hand to ride out crashes and you're fine. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114654) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:23 PM Author: zurich is stained i disagree with this. if you do that, then for the time being 40% of your money is underperforming. and then if eventually foreign stocks start outperforming, from that point forward 60% of your money will be underperforming.
i have everything in US based equities.
it's risky, but i think a fairly safe bet that the US will continue to outperform. i guess if US stocks start shitting the bed for a few years, you take a hit and maybe reevaluate. |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:24 PM The whole point of indexing is that you know for sure you're doing something suboptimal because you don't know what the optimal thing is-- nobody does until after the fact. I'm okay with my the growth of my stock portfolio mirroring the growth of the whole planet, which is pretty close to what a global index does. US stocks might overperform, international stocks might overperform, either way I should be fine unless it's literal World War 3 in which case no investment will halp. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114901) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:27 PM Author: zurich is stained right, but we know that if you put your money 100% in an S&P fund for the last 50 years, you'd have a shitload more money than if you'd had it in some kind of foreign index fund.
i index, but within the US only. foreign stocks have proven to be SPS. who knows when that will change. |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:29 PM Author: Karlstack (Retired) You’re saying the past can be used to guide us in the future? 🤔 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114923) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:39 PM Author: zurich is stained no; because past performance doesn't guarantee future results, you should completely disregard it and just do something else.
you are a fucking idiot. |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:40 PM Author: Karlstack (Retired) stfu cowshit. Just stfu. The real zurich doesn’t even know wtf he invests in and has everything in an annuity or something (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114974) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:46 PM Author: https://imgur.com/a/IkQnGlr A self-proclaimed STATISTICIAN who has never heard of Bayes' theorem. Who could have possibly guessed? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48115028) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:49 PM Author: Karlstack (Retired) Wow you really seem sure that you’re right. Are you willing to shotgun yourself in the balls if you’re wrong btw? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48115053) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:48 PM But that's no different than saying "Apple has done really well for the past 20 years, I'll just invest in apple."
Yeah, the S&P absolutely beat the shit out of international stocks for the past 50 years, but that's already baked into the price of domestic and foreign stocks. I'll just buy everything because I have no idea if that's what it'll do for the next 40 or so years that are of interest to me (after that I'll be DET and stop caring) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 10:19 PM Author: Karlstack (Retired) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48115420) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:38 PM Author: https://imgur.com/a/IkQnGlr You're attacking a straw man. You have no idea what real people actually think about this. It's hilarious how yuge your blind spot is. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114703) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:42 PM Author: Karlstack (Retired) yeah ok, champ. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114717) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 4:34 PM Author: ,.,,,. Imagine how much I'd have if I put all my $$ into tqqq Dec 2022. It was at 17. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114099) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 5:58 PM Author: ,,,,....,..,...,....,. Redditors are right ya dumb bish (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114441) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:41 PM Author: https://imgur.com/a/IkQnGlr Why don't people invest in Karlstack instead? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114710) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:43 PM Author: Karlstack (Retired) Many do. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114719) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:43 PM Author: giga weed (🧐) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114722) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:45 PM Author: zurich is stained i have enjoyed watching cowgod get repeatedly gaped itt. keep it up. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48115017) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:46 PM Author: Karlstack (Retired) (cowgod) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48115026) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:52 PM Author: zurich is stained what do you invest in btw? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48115059) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 10:19 PM Author: Karlstack (Retired) 401k annuity (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48115419) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 7:58 AM Author: zurich is stained that's terrible. i rolled my $700k over last month into a self-directed account and split it between VOO, SCHD, SCHG, VGT, and SMH. i'm up almost $100k in that time. that said, you can't really go by past performance so these are probably bad investments and i will lose it all soon. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116314) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 8:16 AM Author: Karlstack (Retired) What is the point of doing that, does your Firm’s plan suck? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116350) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 8:58 AM Author: zurich is stained i guess the point, you dumb poor faggot, is that i'm guessing the above may outperform the S&P over the next 20 years or so. maybe it won't, who knows. my plan has a vanguard S&P index fund (slightly higher expense ratio than VOO) and the vanguard small cap, mid cap, international indexes as well. btw, didn't you snipe at me a few weeks ago for having any money in "mutual funds lmao gen x, why don't you put your money in ETFs boomer", and now this retarded shit from you. you are a mentally ill faggot who is just contrary to be contrary and you're probably bitter because you're legitimately lower middle class.
and with respect to the investment split i chose, it's stupid that i did that because you really cannot glean anything at all from the prior performance of an investment vehicle, so you should probably just invest in rocks or bonds. odd that you just shoot holes in other people's investments without offering any useful insight yourself. |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 9:28 AM Author: Karlstack (Retired) lol 😂 you’re actually retarded imo. All I asked you, champ, was whether your firm’s investment options suck. A lot of the things you’re invested in sound like they’d be offered by a typical plan. It’s not like you used the funds to buy a rental property. Gen X really and truly is a joke and your net worth is appalling given your advanced age and Partnership. You’re probably a litigator and probably get paid less than random senior associates because Gen X incomes have been suppressed since time immemorial and always will be. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116430) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 9:47 AM Author: zurich is stained (guy who got prolapsed ITT)
yea you Owned Me afaik, i'm an Idiot imho |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 10:00 AM Author: Karlstack (Retired) Go get your fuckin shinebox, Gen Xer. I bet you’re voting Kamala btw. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116477) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 12:12 AM Author: subcontinental computer genius https://ofdollarsanddata.com/how-long-can-stocks-underperform/
While the U.S. has never experienced a 20-year period of negative real returns, it has gotten close a few times. From February 1966 through December 1982, U.S. stocks lost 0.16% on an annualized basis, when including dividends and adjusting for inflation. That’s a 16-year period of negative real returns. Additionally, from September 1929 through December 1944, U.S. stocks experienced a 15-year period of negative real returns. This coincided with the beginning of the Great Depression through WWII. |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 5:58 AM Author: Karlstack (Retired) That extends into 1992ish if you control for inflation (but probably would get a positive real return if only from dividends) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116194) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 7:31 AM Author: ceci n'est pas un avocat Then boomers arrived and touched off a 50 year bull market
Really makes u think 🤔 |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 8:17 AM Author: Karlstack (Retired) http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2512155&mc=172&forum_id=2 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116354) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 8:48 AM Author: ,..,,......,....,,,,..,.,... if this is CR then I could FIRE right now in sha Allah (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116370) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 8:51 AM Author: Karlstack (Retired) I think we all could (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116372) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 10:02 AM Author: OldHLSDude If you had bought the S&P at the end of 1968 it would have taken you nearly 15 years to break even. That's the environment I graduated college and LS into. The 70s were lost years for stocks. Inflation, high interest rates, high unemployment, stagflation, oil embargo, Vietnam war, etc. Bad government policy compounded everything. Wage and price controls started under Nixon then Carter kept it up. It's how Reagan got a landslide in 1980 and again in 84. The misery index (unemployment plus inflation) peaked in July 1980 at 22. FYI, son's grade school teacher in DC told the class in 1984 that if Reagan won it meant the "end of democracy in America." Sound familiar?
The economic improvement under Reagan was pronounced. The Fed enacted sharp rate increases which tamed inflation but produced a recession, then the Reagan tax cuts revitalized things at the cost of what now looks like a modest rise in deficit.
I have seen enough ups and downs that I keep 5-7 years' expenses in insured deposits or short term Fed securities. Probably unnecessarily conservative but it makes me feel better. |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 10:06 AM Author: Karlstack (Retired) With all due respect, there’s a Gen Xer with 5% your net worth up thread who *insists* that this never happened. Pretty sure he knows better than you do. Btw please become a paid subscriber to Karlstack and continue to pay post mortem if possible. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116504) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 10:15 AM Author: OldHLSDude I'll add it to my trust. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116526) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 10:16 AM Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,.;,.,.,:;,,....,:,..,:.;.,:.::,. If you had just but everything into stocks since 1968 you would be 3-5x richer today (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116527) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 10:19 AM Author: zurich is stained No, board poor cowgod thinks stocks are not cr. You shouldn’t put anything into stocks. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116530) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 10:23 AM Author: giga weed (🧐) Stop being retarded (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116538) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 10:21 AM Author: Karlstack (Retired) The math on this is slightly more complicated than you make it out to be. First of all. First of all his life savings was probably like $5k in 1969. We don’t know when he made his $$$ really. A 15% treasury bond from the early 80s would give stocks a run for their fucking money. And even before that in the 70s it would appear bonds beat stocks. |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 10:24 AM Author: zurich is stained Okay, so now can you tell us where you’d put your money if you had any? You’ve shown that throwing everything into the s&p is a stupid gen x move but what should we do? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116539) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 10:31 AM Author: Karlstack (Retired) I just posted upthread, I accept that it’s risky, that’s why there’s a risk premium. Redditors and xo posters think of risk as making a guaranteed High Return. Then they point to a chart of the last 40 years. I want to see their Chart of the Future.
I am diversified in Treasury Bonds, crypto, stonks. I made some lucky af trades and put it in Treasury Bonds bc I don’t want to Lose ill gotten gains. Per exeunt’s wisdom, any money I put in stonk I expect to lose half potentially. Crypto I expect to lose it all. A Gen Xer should probably just pay off his student loans before he worries about investing. |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 10:34 AM Author: zurich is stained What kind of retard under 70 puts money in treasuries? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116572) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 10:36 AM Author: Karlstack (Retired) I live on the Interest (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116577) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 11:02 AM Author: animeboi (.) oh wow man that sweet 4.5% (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116647) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 11:13 AM Author: zurich is stained I guess all that shit about him being a Curator of Film who is poor was flame because he’s got millions in treasuries alone, which is somehow a wise financial move (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116675) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 10:40 AM Author: Diane Rehm talking dirty (🦆) Sup (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116592) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 11:01 AM Author: Christopher's Disease I use it for planning (putting my entire income into retirement every month while putting six months of my living expenses into treasuries in advance). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116644) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 10:22 AM Author: Diane Rehm talking dirty (🦆) When people get greedy I get scared. —Sam Bankman-Fried |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 11:00 AM Author: ;;;..........;.;.;.;.;.;.;.,,;.;.,,,;.;. Is this actually DMtp? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116642) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 11:03 AM Author: Diane Rehm talking dirty (🦆) Some of us added the duck in solidarity and I never removed mine. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116648) |