Redditors think the S&P500 provides a Guaranteed 8% Return
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Poast new message in this thread
Date: September 19th, 2024 10:31 PM Author: Karlstack (Retired)
It’s unthinkable to them that it could just go flat like Japan, China, Europe, Middle East, South America stonks. It provides a guaranteed return except in the event of a collapse in which case, “you’ll have bigger problems than your stock portfolio.”
They aren’t “pretty sure” or “mostly sure.” It’s a bona fide Certainty.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111499) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:28 AM
Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,.;,.,.,:;,,....,:,..,:.;.,:.::,.
and they've styled on fags like you predicting a flatlining for the past 20 years.
I'm 35 and just hit $3M net worth on a relatively modest salary by trusting the S&P500. You? LJL
This was actually the single most valuable thing I learned from my financial economics class or any class in college outside the math and stats departments.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111958) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 12:59 PM
Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,.;,.,.,:;,,....,:,..,:.;.,:.::,.
No inheritance
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116950) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:34 PM
Author: .,.,..,,.,.,.,.,.,..,.,.,.,.. ( )
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48113263) |
Date: September 19th, 2024 10:49 PM
Author: ;;;..........;.;.;.;.;.;.;.,,;.;.,,,;.;.
in the event of a collapse in which case, “you’ll have bigger problems than your stock portfolio.
This part is true. What else are you going to do with your money besides buy into the Jewish money letters casino? Once you have a House and Guns and Ammo, what else is going to help you when permanent ITE comes?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111608) |
Date: September 19th, 2024 11:13 PM
Author: ........,,,,,,......,.,.,.,,,,,,,,,,
Every important and influential person in the US owns a shit ton of stock.
If you're going to invest in anything, why not invest in the single thing that the US Political system is designed to protect?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111707) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 12:15 AM
Author: .,..,.,,.,.,..,.,.,.,..,..,..,.,..,,.,.,.,.
Both
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48115848) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 12:16 AM
Author: .,..,.,,.,.,..,.,.,.,..,..,..,.,..,,.,.,.,.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48115849) |
Date: September 19th, 2024 11:37 PM
Author: .,.,..,,.,.,.,.,.,..,.,.,.,.. ( )
No, they're expecting an 8% average. That you don't understand the difference between expected and guaranteed value explains a lot about your life.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111774) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:29 AM
Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,.;,.,.,:;,,....,:,..,:.;.,:.::,.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111963) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 8:11 AM Author: giga weed (🧐)
(OP says one thing)
"No, redditors are definitely not thinking that, they're smarter than that."
Yeah man, or maybe cowshit is right that people legitimately believe there is less a chance of number going down than nuclear war?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116336) |
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Date: September 19th, 2024 11:58 PM Author: theranchman
lol nice word salad disco.
"eat up that dividend return" - the word "that" in this sentence reference "tax advantages" in the prior. two wholly distinct concepts
and your threatening conclusion is that they do not perform as advertised. to whom is this the relevant question rather than "would that money, tax adjusted, outperform if put in the SPX or the plan"
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111888) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 9:17 AM Author: ,..,,,,,,....,,,...,
It is very on brand for you to be in a terrible fee-laden 401k that probably involves kickbacks between employer and advisor. Normal 401k now have Vanguard funds with like 0.1% admin fees on top.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112637) |
Date: September 20th, 2024 12:25 AM
Author: ..,.,,,...,..,,.,...,.,,.,..
The amount of uncertainty in capital market assumptions is insane. Even over a 30 year time horizon you can get absolutely fucked:
https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/vemo-return-forecasts.html
Imagine getting the 5th percentile US equity returns of 3.1% CAGR for 30 years.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111950) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 12:28 AM
Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,.;,.,.,:;,,....,:,..,:.;.,:.::,.
3.1% returns! Oh the humanity!!!!
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48111960) |
Date: September 20th, 2024 3:34 AM
Author: .....,,,,,...,,,,,..,.,,,,,.,,.
First, that’s the expected average over a long period of time (i.e. we could be down 20% in one year and up 30% one year but it evens out over the long term out to 8% gain)
And it’s not just Reddit. The financial planning and wealth management industries take this as an absolute and undeniable truth. Probably because most people realistically can’t retire unless it’s true.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112239) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 5:34 PM Author: subcontinental computer genius
S&P500 had puny and at times negative inflation adjusted returns for decades after the late 1960s.
November 1968 to November 1988: inflation adjusted price return, -1.38%. Inflation adjusted total return (w dividend reinvestment), 2.73%.
November 1968 to September 1985: inflation adjusted price return, -3.27%. Inflation adjusted total return, 0.9%
worst case-November 1968 to July 1982: inflation adjusted price return, -6.89%. Inflation adjusted total return, -2.94%.
all percentage returns annualized
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114371)
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Date: September 20th, 2024 6:31 PM Author: ,..,,,,,,....,,,...,
Wow that must have been a disaster for anyone who only bought at the top and only sold at the bottom. How did starting to earn and invest in this period play out for boomers? Are they all broke now?
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114513) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 12:05 AM Author: subcontinental computer genius
Stocks have had negative returns during periods of yield curve steepening since the 60s.
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bull-steepening-is-bearish-for-stocks-part-two/
I don't see how price earning multiples can inflate beyond their current levels. Unless there is significant earnings growth, which is unlikely in an economic slowdown, stock prices ought to drop in the medium term. It's reason to keep some powder dry in mmfs that can b deployed when stocks fall from nosebleed levels.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48115820) |
Date: September 20th, 2024 8:34 AM Author: ,..,,,,,,....,,,...,
You’re right that redditors are dumb and have no understanding of volatility or the drivers of long-term stock returns. But even the markets you cite as flat are up over the last 5/10 years. Not up as much as the US but far better than negative real rate safe assets. Avoiding stocks in your long-term investments so you can feel superior to people who lost $$$ in various bubbles is even dumber than being a redditor and guarantees that you remain poor.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112540) |
Date: September 20th, 2024 8:52 AM Author: jewish pussy is a blessing
thread backfired, IMO.
Discuss
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112569) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 11:03 AM
Author: .,.,..,,.,.,.,.,.,..,.,.,.,.. ( )
But then how would I pay hookers
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48112912) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 5:34 PM Author: ,..,,,,,,....,,,...,
If there were no money hookers would be even more willing to work for food and drugs. The challenge would be getting enough food and drugs, especially for those of us in the class that would be sacrificed to make a skull pyramid in the post-capitalist world.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114372) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:44 PM
Author: .,.,..,,.,.,.,.,.,..,.,.,.,.. ( )
It seems like we should keep money so we can pay hookers, so far that's worked pretty well for me
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114730) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 7:19 PM
Author: .,.,..,,.,.,.,.,.,..,.,.,.,.. ( )
I'm of the opinion you should just index the whole planet. The US is about 60% of the global market cap, so 60%ish of your portfolio should be the US, which you can do with a domestic whole market fund. The rest of the world is about 40% which you can mirror pretty closely with VEU or similar. I have no idea if the US will continue to overperform global stocks, but that's why we're indexing it. Keep enough cash on hand to ride out crashes and you're fine.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114654) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:23 PM Author: Roger Peckerhead
i disagree with this. if you do that, then for the time being 40% of your money is underperforming. and then if eventually foreign stocks start outperforming, from that point forward 60% of your money will be underperforming.
i have everything in US based equities.
it's risky, but i think a fairly safe bet that the US will continue to outperform. i guess if US stocks start shitting the bed for a few years, you take a hit and maybe reevaluate.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114893) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:24 PM
Author: .,.,..,,.,.,.,.,.,..,.,.,.,.. ( )
The whole point of indexing is that you know for sure you're doing something suboptimal because you don't know what the optimal thing is-- nobody does until after the fact. I'm okay with my the growth of my stock portfolio mirroring the growth of the whole planet, which is pretty close to what a global index does. US stocks might overperform, international stocks might overperform, either way I should be fine unless it's literal World War 3 in which case no investment will halp.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48114901) |
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Date: September 20th, 2024 8:48 PM
Author: .,.,..,,.,.,.,.,.,..,.,.,.,.. ( )
But that's no different than saying "Apple has done really well for the past 20 years, I'll just invest in apple."
Yeah, the S&P absolutely beat the shit out of international stocks for the past 50 years, but that's already baked into the price of domestic and foreign stocks. I'll just buy everything because I have no idea if that's what it'll do for the next 40 or so years that are of interest to me (after that I'll be DET and stop caring)
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48115047) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 8:58 AM Author: Roger Peckerhead
i guess the point, you dumb poor faggot, is that i'm guessing the above may outperform the S&P over the next 20 years or so. maybe it won't, who knows. my plan has a vanguard S&P index fund (slightly higher expense ratio than VOO) and the vanguard small cap, mid cap, international indexes as well. btw, didn't you snipe at me a few weeks ago for having any money in "mutual funds lmao gen x, why don't you put your money in ETFs boomer", and now this retarded shit from you. you are a mentally ill faggot who is just contrary to be contrary and you're probably bitter because you're legitimately lower middle class.
and with respect to the investment split i chose, it's stupid that i did that because you really cannot glean anything at all from the prior performance of an investment vehicle, so you should probably just invest in rocks or bonds. odd that you just shoot holes in other people's investments without offering any useful insight yourself.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116379) |
Date: September 21st, 2024 12:12 AM Author: subcontinental computer genius
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/how-long-can-stocks-underperform/
While the U.S. has never experienced a 20-year period of negative real returns, it has gotten close a few times. From February 1966 through December 1982, U.S. stocks lost 0.16% on an annualized basis, when including dividends and adjusting for inflation. That’s a 16-year period of negative real returns. Additionally, from September 1929 through December 1944, U.S. stocks experienced a 15-year period of negative real returns. This coincided with the beginning of the Great Depression through WWII.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48115840) |
Date: September 21st, 2024 8:48 AM
Author: ,..,,......,....,,,,..,.,...
if this is CR then I could FIRE right now in sha Allah
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116370) |
Date: September 21st, 2024 10:02 AM Author: OldHLSDude
If you had bought the S&P at the end of 1968 it would have taken you nearly 15 years to break even. That's the environment I graduated college and LS into. The 70s were lost years for stocks. Inflation, high interest rates, high unemployment, stagflation, oil embargo, Vietnam war, etc. Bad government policy compounded everything. Wage and price controls started under Nixon then Carter kept it up. It's how Reagan got a landslide in 1980 and again in 84. The misery index (unemployment plus inflation) peaked in July 1980 at 22. FYI, son's grade school teacher in DC told the class in 1984 that if Reagan won it meant the "end of democracy in America." Sound familiar?
The economic improvement under Reagan was pronounced. The Fed enacted sharp rate increases which tamed inflation but produced a recession, then the Reagan tax cuts revitalized things at the cost of what now looks like a modest rise in deficit.
I have seen enough ups and downs that I keep 5-7 years' expenses in insured deposits or short term Fed securities. Probably unnecessarily conservative but it makes me feel better.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116485) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 10:16 AM
Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,.;,.,.,:;,,....,:,..,:.;.,:.::,.
If you had just but everything into stocks since 1968 you would be 3-5x richer today
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116527) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 10:31 AM Author: Karlstack (Retired)
I just posted upthread, I accept that it’s risky, that’s why there’s a risk premium.
Redditors and xo posters think of risk as making a guaranteed High Return. Then they point to a chart of the last 40 years. I want to see their Chart of the Future.
I am diversified in Treasury Bonds, crypto, stonks. I made some lucky af trades and put it in Treasury Bonds bc I don’t want to Lose ill gotten gains. Per exeunt’s wisdom, any money I put in stonk I expect to lose half potentially. Crypto I expect to lose it all. A Gen Xer should probably just pay off his student loans before he worries about investing.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116564) |
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Date: September 21st, 2024 12:00 PM
Author: .,..,..,..,.,.,:,.:,...,:.:,,.;.;,.,.:....:..,.::,
so again, basically you would've maybe broken even if your situation happened to match a particular cherry-picked 1-in-1,000 scenario. great, sounds worth being 3-4x poorer
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5598286&forum_id=2#48116786) |
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