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Imagine if the death rate was like 10 or 20 percent. Ppl would be freaking out
| motley native | 02/28/20 |
| Cobalt Fantasy-prone Legal Warrant | 02/28/20 |
| Naked cruise ship | 02/28/20 |
| abusive idiot | 02/28/20 |
| diverse lodge regret | 02/28/20 |
| Racy Magical Cuckoldry | 02/28/20 |
| diverse lodge regret | 02/28/20 |
| Very tactful death wish | 02/28/20 |
| diverse lodge regret | 02/28/20 |
| Very tactful death wish | 02/28/20 |
| diverse lodge regret | 02/28/20 |
| poppy sweet tailpipe | 02/28/20 |
| diverse lodge regret | 02/28/20 |
| abusive idiot | 02/28/20 |
| nyuug | 01/06/25 |
| nyuug | 01/06/25 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: February 28th, 2020 12:56 AM Author: motley native (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4455532&forum_id=2#39665642) |
Date: February 28th, 2020 1:07 AM Author: Cobalt Fantasy-prone Legal Warrant Someday a real rain will come and wash all this scum off the streets. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4455532&forum_id=2#39665667) |
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Date: February 28th, 2020 1:24 AM Author: Naked cruise ship (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4455532&forum_id=2#39665713) |
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Date: February 28th, 2020 10:55 AM Author: abusive idiot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4455532&forum_id=2#39667033) |
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Date: February 28th, 2020 1:23 AM Author: diverse lodge regret Two sides of this coin: If you're trying to maximize kill you have to think in terms of both ease of spread (r0) and fatality rate--both axes. Pathogens tend to trade off on ease of spread vs. fatality rate, maximizing the one or the other but not both. E.g., SARS/MERS both have high fatality rates, in the range of what you're describing in fact, but they're much harder to transmit and therefore they have limited spreads. Ebola is an extreme example of this with a very high fatality rate, so much so that it becomes almost self-extinguishing if you're able to implement and enforce basic sanitation protocols. Measles is a good example in the other direction--very easily and widely spread, but not much of a fatality rate. Smallpox, by contrast, is a rare example of something that is both relatively deadly and relatively communicable, which is one of the reasons it's been so feared throughout human history and was the focus of so much effort to achieve a cure / widespread inoculation. This is all a roundabout way of saying that if you and I are going to design something tonight in this lab, we're going to need to think beyond the single axis of fatality; we have to "think bigger." I'll continue our discussion in my next poast thank you. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4455532&forum_id=2#39665712) |
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Date: February 28th, 2020 1:28 AM Author: Racy Magical Cuckoldry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4455532&forum_id=2#39665722) |
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Date: February 28th, 2020 1:29 AM Author: diverse lodge regret That said, fatality rates can be an insidious thing, hard for an average civilian to gauge their effect until the bodies start piling up, particularly when some virus is unleashed in a sufficiently large population. "Oh it's 1%" doesn't sound bad until you realize that that's an order of magnitude worse than a bad flu year and implies millions of deaths. The working fatality rate out of China is 2.5%, although that's going to get refined and made more granular in the coming weeks as the virus spreads. Assume this spreads to 50% of the U.S. population within 12 months at a 2% fatality rate--lower to reflect better standards of care. That's 3 million dead in the U.S.--Chicago wiped off the map. Go with 75% and 2.5%, right in line with Chinese estimates. That's 6 million dead--adios LA and Phoenix. Ratchet it up to 80% and 3% fatality rate, perhaps reflecting Chinese suppression of actual fatality data. That's 8 million dead--goodbye to the population of New York. These aren't predictions of its actual spread but rather intended to demonstrate the severe impact that even "very low" fatality rates can have. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4455532&forum_id=2#39665725) |
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Date: February 28th, 2020 1:40 AM Author: Very tactful death wish Yeah but if the vast majority of the dead are boomers and other old people who don’t work anymore and strangle youngs with their healthcare and entitlement consumption how is this a bad thing? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4455532&forum_id=2#39665740) |
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Date: February 28th, 2020 1:50 AM Author: diverse lodge regret vgood ? pussy stick tp. I'd say that, even if your goal is to remove all boomers and old people from the earth--be careful with that mentality, you'll grow old one day and then you'll have to defend yourself from some ravenous technohorde of enraged 23-year-olds named Aiden and Jayden, unless you're altruistic and shoot yourself in a field of poppies when you turn 70-- it's still going to be a tough pill to swallow because having virulent death occur at the scale of "x million per year" in a country is going to have knock-on effects across the economy and population base; it has an effect beyond simply killing off a segment of people. People become afraid to congregate; you are burying family members or at least attending funerals of friends' family members who have died; access to credit diminishes; supply chains are disrupted; people are less likely to have children; risk-off mentalities prevail, less businesses started, reduced volume of goods moved; markets crash. It's sloppy; lots of collateral damage. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4455532&forum_id=2#39665749) |
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Date: February 28th, 2020 2:01 AM Author: Very tactful death wish EDIT: okay you have a good point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4455532&forum_id=2#39665763) |
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Date: February 28th, 2020 10:54 AM Author: diverse lodge regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4455532&forum_id=2#39667025) |
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Date: February 28th, 2020 10:58 AM Author: poppy sweet tailpipe They've gotten it broken down by age, and the extent to which it skews older is wild. It's something like 0.2% in the 20-29 age bracket, and it climbs to ~15% in 70+. The confound is that it broke out in China, where basically everyone is immune compromised from living in shit air for decades, and it's probably cumulative when it comes to a respiratory illness like this one. We should pay much closer attention to what happens in Italy to get a granular sense of who is dying and whom we should expect to die in the US. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4455532&forum_id=2#39667044) |
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Date: February 28th, 2020 10:59 AM Author: diverse lodge regret (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4455532&forum_id=2#39667050) |
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Date: February 28th, 2020 10:56 AM Author: abusive idiot Simulators are getting max exposure then cranking up the mutations to up the death rate
Same way you win on the Plague app |
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Date: January 6th, 2025 8:52 PM Author: nyuug (Gangnam WGWAG Playboy) ASIAN MALES FUCKED
http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=4448051&mc=124&forum_id=2 |
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Date: January 6th, 2025 9:46 PM Author: nyuug (Gangnam WGWAG Playboy) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=4455532&forum_id=2#48525799) |