and yes, the geometric brownian motion model for stock prices is so successful because that's exactly what the underlying stock price process is, random noise.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5699508&forum_id=2#48780392)

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1d ago

To add something different to what others have said, 'beating the market' is actually not that difficult. I'm a researcher in a related field, and it only took a few months of my free time to find actionable and statistically significant 'non-randomness' and develop a half dozen 'strategies' from it. I suspect that if you're motivated and capable enough, you will be able to do the same. However, beating the market to a degree that it would actually make a substantial difference in your day-to-day life is a hell of a lot more difficult. I've found that, given my risk tolerance and other personal choices means that even if I continue to 'beat the market' returns by an order-of-magnitude, it will still be a decade or more before it would have any impact on my life. Your calculus may be different.

One other thing to add is that finding market inefficiencies is the easy part. It can't be emphasized enough that understanding the market from a technical/fundamental perspective is much much more important. You'll need to spend much more time on this aspect when you're starting. Just search the sub for recommendations and you will find plenty.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5699508&forum_id=2#48780445)