Let’s start with the reality of Tesla.

In 2024, Tesla’s annual net income was only $12.6 billion (though some sources put it as low as $7 billion). The vast majority of this was from their car sales. However, as of the time of writing, Tesla is valued at $852.43 billion! That means its P/E ratio (a ratio of company value to its net income, used to determine if the company is over or undervalued) is a staggering 67.65!

Let’s compare that to Toyota. They are far larger than Tesla and have far more impactful upcoming EV and self-driving technology than Tesla. Last financial year, their net income was a massive $29 billion! However, they have a much more realistic value of $243.56 billion, giving them a P/E ratio of 8.40, which is close to the average for the automotive world.

By comparison, Tesla’s value makes no sense. It offers nothing that Toyota doesn’t also offer. The only reason Tesla is so stupidly valuable is because it is treated as a speculative meme stock.

But, as we have seen in recent weeks, the reality of Tesla’s sales slipping cuts through this speculation and causes mass stock sell-offs. This, in turn, diminishes its ability to be seen as a speculative stock and forces many investors to reevaluate their position based on reality.

So, how much would Tesla be worth if it was valued realistically by the end of 2025?

Currently, its sales are down 45% in the EU and 49% in China, and these numbers are predicted to fall even further. So, let’s be generous and say that over the course of this year, Tesla’s sales and net income will fall by 45%. Let’s also be generous and say that it is valued at the same P/E ratio as Toyota, even though Toyota is larger, has a bigger cash surplus, better upcoming technology, a stronger market share, etc.

This would give Tesla a net income of $6.93 billion and a total valuation of $55.44 billion. That is just 6% of what Tesla is worth at the time of writing, and it has already lost over a third of its value over the past few months. This is not some hypothetical pessimistic projection; it is a realistic valuation based on optimistic numbers for Tesla.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5696378&forum_id=2#48760912)

Whoa. Fuck.

I mean, I really want to argue against this, but if

>>> "Will Lockett @planetearthandbeyond 'Planet Earth & Beyond' - A Climate & Politics Journalist who is pissed off that the world is burning, corrupt and broken, yet no one in power seems to care"

insists on his personal "substack" (4.5k followers) Elon Musk (220m followers, richest and most famous man on the planet) is a retard and Tesla is doomed to bankruptcy...

:( :( :(

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5696378&forum_id=2#48760961)

POSTSCRIPT: Even worse -- apparently he has also declared that Starlink is similarly doomed!

https://substack.com/home/post/p-159334803

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5696378&forum_id=2#48760965)