Trump reaches new high in 538 odds
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Date: September 17th, 2024 3:39 PM Author: MASE
RCP 2016 Average: +3.2 Clinton
Final 2016 Result: +2.1 Clinton (LOSS)
RCP 2020 Average: +7.2 Biden
Final 2020 Result: +4.5 Biden (WIN)
RCP 2024 Average: +2.0 Harris
Final 2024 Result: ???
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100148) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 4:03 PM Author: MASE
That's actually the only reasonable thesis I've heard from Dems on this.
2 counters however.
1. A small error towards Dems would still not necessarily be enough to get them the Electoral College. Especially if Harris is really at 2.0 nationally.
2. Trump elections are different than non-Trump elections. Sauceless senate candidates are not comparable.
Oh also - pollers are still making the same mistakes they made in 2016 and 2020 by polling unrealistic demographic makeups like D+3 electorates. Uh oh!
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100265) |
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Date: September 17th, 2024 4:14 PM Author: Trump: Aborted in the first term
I struggle with the term "expected."
That amount is right at the line where random shit decides it. Weather patterns and such.
40K difference in three states in 2020; 80K difference 2016. Who fucking knows? Either way you way too cocksure about the whole thing.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100300) |
Date: September 17th, 2024 5:49 PM
Author: .,.,.;.,..,..,.,:.,:,..,..,::,..,:,.,.:,..:.,:.:,
Funny how after all the shit do has given Nate Silver he's the only one who's got this one right
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5596534&forum_id=2#48100637) |
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