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Nate Silver: It's Trump's election to lose, basically all fundamentals favor him
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Date: September 13th, 2024 12:49 PM Author: insecure mediation https://www.natesilver.net/p/this-was-trumps-election-to-lose
Tldr when it's a slow news cycle for Kamala and people aren't hyper obsessing about politicths Trump wins by default. Cacklin' Kam only wins when there's a media frenzy about her and somehow her fans are really focused and engaged. |
Date: September 13th, 2024 12:54 PM Author: carmine offensive lettuce windowlicker Libs? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5594172&forum_id=2#48084808) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 12:54 PM Author: exciting abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5594172&forum_id=2#48084811) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 12:58 PM Author: lilac resort striped hyena To be fair,
"There’s a certain type of Democrat — often, the same type who insists that Harris should be winning by 20 points — who frequently complains that the economy is completely amazing and Biden-Harris should be getting more credit for it. But that’s just bullshit. Economic indicators are mixed."
Obeezy-free thread IMO |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 1:03 PM Author: insecure mediation He also goes on to say that while the stock market is way up, people have less disposable income than 4 years ago, on top of 20% inflation. Then he says he understands why economic populism is in the air.
So you mean to tell me that millions of Americans actually aren't better off than they were four years ago, and don't want to throw in with a candidate who has taken more money from Silicon Valley in history, and has promised a bunch of SV Jews that she's going to fire Lina Kahn, drop all the antitrust lawsuits, and let tech companies expand into disparate markets he certainly destroying small businesses and crushing the little guy?
But Trump is "crazy" because of Jan 6. So I guess we can't have that! |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 1:00 PM Author: medicated azn Sounds like he's still in a good position to win despite people saying the sky is falling. So how does he finish it? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5594172&forum_id=2#48084824) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 1:01 PM Author: exciting abode With lots of complaining about fraud in the states he loses (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5594172&forum_id=2#48084829) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 1:52 PM Author: insecure mediation You seem nervous bud (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5594172&forum_id=2#48085066) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 3:07 PM Author: insecure mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5594172&forum_id=2#48085399) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 3:08 PM Author: thriller native Twist: the media will ensure that from late October until the election there is a constant media frenzy about her and somehow her fans are really focused and engaged. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5594172&forum_id=2#48085403) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 3:09 PM Author: Ungodly Halford Roast Beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5594172&forum_id=2#48085410) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 3:11 PM Author: medicated azn That could backfire (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5594172&forum_id=2#48085415) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 3:30 PM Author: insecure mediation So this worked for about 3 weeks after the drama of Biden dropping out, there was a lot of pent up passion from shitlibs who hadn't felt like they had any hope of Biden re-election, and the media frenzy. This lasted all the way throuh the convention, then tapered off substantially.
Everyone I know who was shouting about the Coconut Pill from the mountain top, and we all remember Meaty Penis going insane for weeks 24 hours a day on XO about Kamala winning. And then poof, gone. I haven't heard about her once. The debate was a big ol' nothingburger no one cares about. Dems were mocking Trump that the assassination attempt disappeared from the news cycle fast, but now guess what, so has the Coconut Pill, and "Coach" Tim Walz.
The truth is the American people broadly do not care about this election and low turnout is expected. People in the middle - however many that is - whether it's 1%, 5%, 10% of swing state voters - people in the middle don't think EITHER candidate really speaks for them. A lot of normies still don't like Trump, but they think Biden-Harris is a sham, too.
Now I don't have a crystal ball here but I do think the idea that "Trump is up by a field goal" right now, and he may "win by default" seems accurate. I cannot predict the next 7 weeks. Kamala could retake the lead, Trump could bury her, maybe it gets tighter and it's a 50/50 tossup. I don't know. But I do think "Trump is winning" is fair to say for today. |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 3:53 PM Author: light market stock car (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5594172&forum_id=2#48085548) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:40 PM Author: insecure mediation I analyzed every swing state and did not see a single instance of ballot fraud and in fact if anything Trump lost because of suburban white people. How can you say there was fraud when Trump's numbers went up in virtually every major metro coast to coast. Like even Los Angeles and San Francisco he outdid his 2016 numbers. Anyway.
I agree there are lots of unknown factors. If the numbers on blacks are true and they actually like Trump now could be a blowout. |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 4:07 PM Author: Mauve site there are dozens of threads per day about what a "disaster" the debate was (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5594172&forum_id=2#48085613) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:34 PM Author: insecure mediation And no one ever bumps them just libs talking to themselves (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5594172&forum_id=2#48087231) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 3:16 PM Author: Mauve site skimmed this and it's kind of all over the place what exactly does he want him to do he called for unity right after being shot (which a lot of posters said was a mistake) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 3:19 PM Author: Poppy step-uncle's house i dont think his models factor in outright fraud (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5594172&forum_id=2#48085444) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:45 PM Author: pearl underhanded travel guidebook filthpig who is the fuck is this guy and why do you guys keep quoting this twitter kike (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5594172&forum_id=2#48087251) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:49 PM Author: Rose field indirect expression LOL this is his way of backtracking his awful predictions this cycle. he knew the polling was bad for Trump but had MUH FEELZ and thought he was smarter than the polls or that they'd move in the direction of MUH FEELZ. now that it has become clear they aren't going to, his figuring out ways to cleverly abort his shitty predictions. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5594172&forum_id=2#48087260) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:53 PM Author: Rose field indirect expression HUGE MISTAKES SO FAR:
1. JD Vance...
LMAO |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:53 PM Author: insecure mediation Yeah this is retarded conjecture (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5594172&forum_id=2#48087269) |