Date: March 7th, 2014 11:24 AM Author: razzmatazz lettuce
Boomers are looking at the longest retirement period of any generation ever, some 20-30 years on average. This means that stocks are actually an increasing and important part of their retirement strategy. 10 year t-notes won't get it done. So working boomers are currently on a massive equity buying binge. But once the youngest boomer finally hits 65, they will institute a perpetual selling of equities. Because they hold the majority of the wealth, they will drown out millennials attempting to buy in. The stock market will be flat until all their assets have been spent or converted to bonds.
This will suck ass and the day your parents die the Dow will be down, their last shares of GE sold to pay for the funeral. Buzzfeed's lead story will be that the Social Security Trust Fund is officially insolvent.
Date: March 7th, 2014 12:16 PM Author: hairraiser arrogant abode
there will be ways to make money even if there is a protracted bear market, but I agree with you that it is a considerable risk. So is a multi year real estate bear market as boomers get older.
Date: October 16th, 2014 11:34 AM Author: Adventurous Duck-like Casino Keepsake Machete
I thought a bunch of retirement community corps filed bk after the last bubble burst. They're leveraged to the hilt so if there's another dip you could take a serious bath.
Date: March 11th, 2014 3:01 PM Author: Frozen Snowy Water Buffalo State
licensing requirements for senior housing have become pretty stringent. I would have thought buying a 4 bedroom house and instead of renting it to 4 college students for $1000 each, you rent it to 8 old people for $2000 each and have a mexican around to mind them at $9 per hour, would be a good idea. But there are significant barriers to entry.
Date: March 7th, 2014 12:27 PM Author: Hairless Spruce Quadroon
it's between index funds or residential real estate investing for me. index funds are weighted 25% international, 75% domestic, and 80% equity, 20% bonds.
Date: March 7th, 2014 12:32 PM Author: razzmatazz lettuce
I moved some more funds into international. I basically just try to keep a balanced portfolio but will put extra into underperforming classes of assets. In my lay investing strategy, anything with five year returns/losses of 25 percent is signaling sell/buy.
Date: March 7th, 2014 12:22 PM Author: mauve persian university
Yesterday at my gym I overheard 3 disgusting shitboomers talk about y heir recent trip to Aspen. Guys were probably 60-65, and looked likerich douchebags. One guy is like "Hey Bob, any hanky panky going on in those hot tubs after skiing?"
Another shitboomers was like "not in my cabin, but I hear Bill's cabin was rocking."
Then one of the boomers was left and one of his friends said "Be well Jim. Remember, lots of sex and alcohol!"
They were having this conversation loudly in front of several familes witg children. Do these fucks have zero shame?
Date: March 7th, 2014 12:26 PM Author: grizzly excitant den volcanic crater
Zero shame. In one of my cases, a shitboomer trashtalked like this about using and abusing girls my age. I obtained a judgment against him and then convinced my client to attach to the fucker's Lexus in front of his kid's school.
Date: March 18th, 2014 12:24 PM Author: Self-centered bespoke station roast beef
lol. and what happens when this boomer selling causes F500 P/E ratios to fall from their historical average of 15 to like 4? Mass corporate acquisitions ?
Date: March 18th, 2014 4:22 PM Author: Self-centered bespoke station roast beef
makes no sense.
the share price of a stock is function of its future earnings. historically that ratio has been 15 (i.e., market is will to pay 15x a company's expected annual income stream) if OP thinks boomers leaving the equity markets will have a significant effect on share price irrespective of a company's financial performance, then at some point P/E ratios are going to plummet, in which case companies could be bought for ridiculously cheap. At some point something has to give. imagine being able to pay $1B to acquire a company that will earn $250M/year.
Date: March 18th, 2014 12:30 PM Author: Elite arousing halford
Those holding most of the market's publicly traded shares are not retirees who need to cash out their portfolios to fund their retirements. Those who need to cash out are but a tiny blip on the radar screen. The bigger problem is whether the American consumer machine will continue to grow once debt-laden low-income millenials become the primary consumers.
Date: June 20th, 2015 8:29 AM Author: Elite arousing halford
True, but boomers should also be in the ground. Their extended lifespan and larger share of income relative to olds of prior generations has kept consumer spending healthy.
Date: March 18th, 2014 1:41 PM Author: Self-centered bespoke station roast beef
so they will pull all of their equity out of the market, convert it to cash, then spend it as consumers, thus driving up corporate revenues and profits? And you think the result of this is that equity prices will go DOWN?
Date: March 18th, 2014 3:51 PM Author: Fuchsia genital piercing
interesting. it seems to me that maybe increased consumption and lower aggregate investment would in fact drive up interest rates, so not sure how it would shake out.
Date: March 18th, 2014 4:18 PM Author: Self-centered bespoke station roast beef
you're still talking about a huge influx of consumer spending into the market. i mean they aren't going to liquidate all of their assets, convert it to cash then burn the cash to keep warm. the only reason to liquidate it is to spend it. if they were just being risk adverse they would just convert to T-bills or something
Date: February 9th, 2015 12:02 AM Author: shimmering charismatic mood
protracted bear market is extremely unlikely.
stocks are valued in order to make money that justifies the risks
therefore, if the market overall is seen as likely shitty for a long time, what is more likely to happen is that it takes a hard hit over a short period of time in order to reset.
a slow descent over a long period of time would take some uber skills by the fed and a hell of a lot of luck.
I know japan had a flat market for a long time, but that's not a bear market
Date: June 16th, 2015 2:20 PM Author: razzmatazz lettuce
Withdrawals from 401(k) plans are now exceeding new contributions as baby boomers age, a shift that could have profound implications for the U.S. retirement industry.
Investors pulled a net $11.4 billion from tax-deferred savings plans in 2013, according to an analysis of government data provided to The Wall Street Journal by BrightScope Inc., ending decades of expansion. Complete industry information for 2014 isn’t yet available.
The movement out of 401(k)s is expected to accelerate in the coming decade as more baby boomers retire, squeezing large money-management firms that rely on fees charged to employers and investors as a chief profit engine, some analysts said.
Asset managers hope they can replace the outflows with a new surge from millennials or other products, such as individual retirement accounts. One industry data provider said most funds leaving 401(k)-style plans are migrating to IRAs.
It is “an inflection point” for the U.S. retirement industry, said J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. analyst Ken Worthington in a research note in April.
Large money managers will be forced to cut fees, offer different products or consolidate operations, Mr. Worthington added in an interview. “It changes the dynamic of the business itself.”
Tax-deferred 401(k) retirement accounts came into wide use in the 1980s as big companies embraced them as a replacement for costly pension funds. Baby boomers were the first generation to rely heavily on the savings plans and helped create a multitrillion-dollar industry that supported hundreds of investment firms and financial planners.
Assets held by 401(k) plans ballooned to $4.6 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2014, up 171% from $1.7 trillion in 2000, according to the Investment Company Institute, a trade organization for mutual funds.
Now the 401(k) generation is ready to take its money out as the number of Americans reaching retirement age this year is expected to hit 3.5 million, up from 2.7 million in 2010, according to J.P. Morgan Chase and Census Bureau data.
One investor preparing to begin his exit is Dave Bernard, 56 years old, who retired three years ago as a consultant to startups in Cupertino, Calif. He and his wife, an office manager, both have a sizable amount invested in their 401(k)s, but in the coming months, when his wife retires, Mr. Bernard will start pulling money out of his plan for living expenses.
He expects to make withdrawals for about 10 years until he can access the full amount of Social Security benefits.
“We’re going to end up using a good portion of our 401(k) to subsidize us,” Mr. Bernard says.
The biggest 401(k) operators in the U.S. noticed the shift first since they generally serve older workers, according to BrightScope. In the past four years, investors pulled a net $12.8 billion from the top 25 plans by assets, according to BrightScope.
Estimates vary on how long the 401(k) net outflows will last and how severe they will become. Financial-services research firm Cerulli Associates projects outflows will persist at least until 2019 when investors will pull an estimated $51.6 billion, according to a December report. J.P. Morgan predicted in its April note the trend will last through 2030, with outflows peaking at $40 billion in 2019.
That money could stay with the retirement industry if baby boomers move 401(k) funds to IRAs. Contributions into IRAs are expected to reach $546 billion by 2019, up from $205 billion in 2003, according to Cerulli.
Some money managers are banking on another demographic group to reverse this shift: millennials. But they acknowledge that will require some convincing.
“Millennials haven’t moved into a higher savings rate yet,” said Douglas Fisher, Fidelity Investment’s head of policy development on workplace retirement. Fidelity is one of the largest providers of 401(k)s, managing accounts for 13 million people across 20,000 companies.
“We need to start getting them to the right level,” he said.
But even if millennials boost their savings, it will take some time for asset managers to see the benefits, said Mr. Worthington of J.P. Morgan.
“Redemptions in the industry are actually going to get worse for the next four to five years,” he said.
Scott David, the head of U.S. investment services for fund firm T. Rowe Price Group Inc., says the key to offsetting outflows from retirement plans is to move older workers into different products at the firm. T. Rowe also is among the largest 401(k) providers.
“Their distribution from a 401(k) plan just means they’re entering a different part of their life,” he says. “They still have investment needs, but their investment needs will change a bit.”
Some money-management firms are expected to lower fees in an attempt to keep market share.
Vanguard Group and Fidelity recently made moves to cut fees in retirement products, and 401(k) participants invested in stock mutual funds paid an average expense ratio of 0.58% in 2013 as compared with 0.63% a year earlier, according to the Investment Company Institute and Lipper Analytics, a mutual-fund research firm. Other fee rates in mutual funds also dropped that year.
One investor who is ready to pull money even though she doesn’t need it is Denise Dobkowski Hammond, 68, who retired about seven ago from her post as treasurer of West Bloomfield, Mich. Ms. Hammond says she saved as much as she could her entire life, putting the maximum amount into her retirement accounts and paying off her house.
Ms. Hammond said she doesn’t need her savings to live on, but a federal law requires her to start withdrawing money from her 401(k) at age 70½.
“I’ll pull out the minimum unless the kids need something,” she said.
Date: January 20th, 2016 2:29 PM Author: Self-centered bespoke station roast beef
at best, this principle alone could only have a short term effect on share prices. a mass exodus would drive prices down in the short term as a glut of sellers compete for buyers, but at the end of the day a company's share price is still a function of its earnings. a typical s&p company that trades at 15x earnings isnt going to suddenly start trading at 5x earnings long term, or all companies would be paying out 20% dividends. avg daily volume may decline permanently due to fewer boomers participating in the market, but PE ratios wont decline much on a long term basis. also, the boomers who are liquidating their investments will turn around and spend that $, thus driving up corporate profits.
Date: June 29th, 2017 8:18 AM Author: razzle-dazzle ruby location circlehead
wouldn't a 20 yr bear market be great for most of us in our 20s and 30s? We'd be able to invest in retirement cheaply during that time, and then the market will go up before we retire.
boomers are like that parasite that lives inside bugs, sucking away until finally shit breaks and u see a 20 inch wet worm scurvying away from a dry empty husk.
Things aren’t as bad as this thread makes them seem. The reality is that babyboomers are idiots, and their prime earning years were the period where the top 1% got insanely wealthy while the bottom half lived paycheck to paycheck. This means that over half of them have *zero retirement savings* and only a quarter of them have an actual pension. Another quarter of them plan to work until 70, so the effects of this sell off will be blunted by their generation’s religious devotion to income inequality. The superrich boomers will sell off, but on a much longer timeline and with a significant portion maintained as an estate/bequest. The bottom half of boomers will have to survive off of social security and the second quartile won’t fully leave the work force until after 2025 and they will be mostly dead by 2035.
The bottom half of Gen X has saved nothing and will have to take on more risk to build up any kind of retirement savings by their 60s. Probably 50+% of Gen X will work until they are 70.