It seems that deflation in one asset class (even if a niche, speculative one like crypto) can affect investor sentiment negatively and engender a crash in other assets, too. There's an argument to be made (even if I don't necessarily agree) that the Dow could be the next victim. Investors will wake up from their euphoric market stupor.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862517&forum_id=2#35174842)

I think it is reasonable to expect a coastal recession due to the tax bill and a few other factors.

My biggest fear is that the people shoving their money into the same 5~10 FANG/Tech stocks PLUS the fund managers putting all their inflows into the same stocks will cause a big issue.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862517&forum_id=2#35174884)

The question is merely whether this will serve as a catalyst for the next downturn.

I was gonna draw a parallel with the CDS market in 2008, but CDS was firmly entrenched in the real economy. Still, part of the analogy holds - at least the part affecting investor sentiment. Everybody knows we're in a market bubble, and we just need a good excuse to sell.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862517&forum_id=2#35174945)

I read this yesterday and chuckled at first, but on closer inspection, realized the underlying analysis wasn't actually bad. He's probably in the ballpark regarding the chain of events that will lead to the next downturn and its very approximate timing:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4118869-stock-market-will-peak-may-10-2019-4-00-p-m-est

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862517&forum_id=2#35175027)

So you're not even committing to this position. But even if you did, then of course you can just wait until the next market crash (there always is one) and say you "called" it because the crypto crash was a prelude. Predictions like this aren't predictions. To be a meaningful prediction, it has to be objectively right or wrong based on objective criteria. "The DOW will be below 25,000 by market close on February 5 or sooner" is a prediction." Stating a vague argument that you don't necessarily agree with is not a prediction.

Or, if it is: Is this stock market crash a prelude to an increase in the price of oil? It could be. I don't necessarily agree, but please bump this when the price of oil inevitably increases and I'll be just as right as you are. TYIA.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3862517&forum_id=2#35331723)