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Should i hold ~10% bonds in my long term portfolio? or fuck bonds
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Date: April 19th, 2018 11:49 AM Author: twinkling plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874169) |
Date: April 19th, 2018 11:51 AM Author: Gay Base Prole Obvious answer is depends on your goals / situation
10% sounds like some BB rated junk. I’d probably just do equities instead for dat upside. |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: flatulent crotch garrison JFC, you only live once. Reach for the stars, man. Bonds, lmao (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874196) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 3:11 PM Author: Fragrant site elastic band (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35875875) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 8:44 PM Author: very tactful vibrant quadroon school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35877691) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 11:58 AM Author: Clear cerebral university filthpig I know plenty of serious-minded investors in their 20s, 30s, 40s who remain all equity (with subclass diversification) on a rocket-fuel theory of just trying to juice returns and endorsing the view that equity is always going to outperform bonds as long as you have a significantly long time horizon. But there is an argument from modern portfolio theory that having a small component of your portfolio invested in bonds will increase your long-run risk adjusted return (and potentially your long-run absolute return) as long as you engage in routine (at least annual and ideally quarterly) portfolio rebalancing. The argument in favor can get technical but the gist of it is that having a bond component shelters you during periods of market downturns and then enables you to rebalance into equities with depressed prices / or conversely exit equities that are overheated. Some of this argument turns on access to leverage but there's a case for it even if you're just doing straight buying and selling. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874227) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:00 PM Author: transparent pisswyrm business firm Cr. Plus if you have access to the TSP the g fund is money (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874242) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:01 PM Author: twinkling plaza i was waiting for this to turn into a sci fi epic, but yeah ive generally done 10% in bonds based on similar advice i got when i started putting money into the market (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874250) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 3:25 PM Author: Alcoholic coldplay fan kitchen i'll call bullshit for a more important reason the one year out of ten where you 'win' because you only had 90% of your holdings get slammed by a downturn does not result in enough of a psychological boost to make up for the other 9 years where you weren't maximizing your gains. i'll call bullshit for a less supportable reason, too. i don't believe the premise is true in most situations, but that's just a hunch |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 3:56 PM Author: Chestnut slap-happy parlour travel guidebook Psychological boost? Fuck are you talking about? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876125) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 4:03 PM Author: Alcoholic coldplay fan kitchen you don't think there is a psychological component to investing? you're incredibly naïve if you argue otherwise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876167) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 4:37 PM Author: White histrionic tattoo bawdyhouse im here for the risk adjusted returns. i get my feel goods elsewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876373) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 6:05 PM Author: Alcoholic coldplay fan kitchen then have the branch op cite his work i can tell you a few reasons why it is bullshit just looking at his explanation, but since you're such a cold hearted pragmatist investor, i'm sure you already see them |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:37 PM Author: twinkling plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874506) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:38 PM Author: Mildly autistic pearly windowlicker public bath I do 10% bonds 90% stocks. Come at me, bros. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874515) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:47 PM Author: Dashing crystalline degenerate set That’s what I do. I also place retarded bets in the distressed high yield space . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874575) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:43 PM Author: Dashing crystalline degenerate set You should have your age in bonds, i.e., 35 percent treasuries and 65 percent large cap blue chips, if you are 35 years old. I’m time traveling from 1985, btw. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874550) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:45 PM Author: twinkling plaza (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874565) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:46 PM Author: Gay Base Prole so 30 year olds should have 30% in fixed income? despite ~35 more years of increasing pay ahead of them? regardless of 401k contributions? this can’t be right for someone with a reasonable risk tolerance (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874566) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:48 PM Author: Dashing crystalline degenerate set Did you miss the part where I am a time traveller? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874579) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:48 PM Author: Gay Base Prole lmao yes. i read the first sentence and became unhinged (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874584) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:48 PM Author: Clear cerebral university filthpig im 30 and there's no way id put 30% in fixed income I just got a second mortgage on our house I didn't tell my wife but it's going to pay off so it doesn't matter and anyway I am INVESTING on heavy margin in options im doing the "random walk" approach which is u just randomly pick a bunch of different options and the theory is that it just pays off because ull have some winners and some losers but the winners will be bigger than the losers (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874586) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:51 PM Author: Dashing crystalline degenerate set 180. Gonna do this tonight. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874609) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:55 PM Author: Clear cerebral university filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874644) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:57 PM Author: Bateful indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874657) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 3:10 PM Author: Talking senate Your post up top is super cr. But here...buying options on margin? Brother i hope it works out for you, but this sounds like a terrible idea. “Random walk” refers to equities not options on equities (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35875862) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 3:43 PM Author: Clear cerebral university filthpig i just dont see the big risk; there is going to be some winners and some losers but they say a monkey throwing darts can beat the average mutual fund so i should be able to pick things at random and win; its not just on margin its this thing they call "EXTREME MARGIN" that they're offering through this italian platform that one of the people in my office hooked me up with--im a secretary in biglaw--so you can borrow up to 90% of the value so ive been able to buy a ton of options (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876075) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 3:49 PM Author: Dashing crystalline degenerate set Brother, you may be autistic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876102) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:52 PM Author: Rusted wonderful corn cake just as likely your pay will fall off a cliff and youll be unemployable than youll have increasing pay for 35 years (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874623) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 12:56 PM Author: Dashing crystalline degenerate set Fortuitous cliff (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35874648) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 3:57 PM Author: jade wagecucks partner Yes but purchase actual bonds. Not a bond fund etf whose value jumps up and down. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876132) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 5:07 PM Author: Razzle insecure useless brakes Extreme TCR (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876566) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 5:11 PM Author: Gay Base Prole Wait what? The value and price of a bond absolutely changes even if you hold them directly.
This is like the most nonsensical shit I’ve ever heard. |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 6:07 PM Author: Flushed indirect expression weed whacker (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876960) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 5:16 PM Author: twinkling plaza explain (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876662) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 5:22 PM Author: Gay Base Prole Here’s what I think he means (but i hope not for his sake):
ETFs are based on the prices of the underlying bonds so the etf price will fluctuate if say interest rates go up or the issuers have a higher chance of insolvency (causing the underlying bond prices to drop)
But if you just hold the bonds you’ll still get the same nominal interest and principal payment regardless of what happens to the bond price. So he’s ignoring the impact of higher interest rates on the NPV of the coupon/principal payments or any changes to the chance the issuer goes bankrupt and you end up with much less than you expect
If you said this in an undergrad finance class I honestly think the professor might beat you to death on the spot |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 5:17 PM Author: Bat-shit-crazy Aqua Step-uncle's House explain, shitlib (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35876665) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 8:08 PM Author: Blue Comical Area I’m at about 5% bonds, half US and half international. I’m also about 40% in investment real estate though (in equity terms;150% with leverage) and I think that’s the more significant hedge/diversification. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35877498) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 8:14 PM Author: galvanic casino I’m 100% equities but I have my son’s UTMA in some high yield corporate junk bond index fund since I’m just trying to maximize yield. I see no reason to be in bonds if you have no plans to pull any money out. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35877535) |
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Date: April 19th, 2018 8:42 PM Author: very tactful vibrant quadroon school cafeteria bonds are ok if you regularly need access to cash for a small business and just need a place to store money
they also might be useful for stabilizing a margin account if you're writing a ton of puts on SP500 minis or some other more exotic strategy
but otherwise, i wouldn't use them if you're young and/or have other bond-like instruments |
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Date: April 20th, 2018 10:37 AM Author: twinkling plaza Sounds like consensus is no (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3953799&forum_id=2#35880986) |