~1.2–1.3 billion barrels in storage → imports dramatically reduced → inventories being drawn by roughly 0.5–0.8 million b/d → refinery activity beginning to recover → pressure building eventually to increase imports.

That last transition could matter a lot for world oil prices. China spent 2025 buying cheap crude and effectively built itself a gigantic shock absorber. It has been using that buffer through 2026 rather than competing aggressively for scarce barrels. If inventories fall far enough that Beijing decides to rebuild them while Middle Eastern supply remains constrained, China's return as a 10–12+ million-b/d buyer could materially tighten the global market.

Embargo stays until China blows through their stockpile from 2025. It's nice they were able to float the US while we did war.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5908540&forum_id=2#50165378)

are they more into benign stability than we give them credit for that they aren't entering the market right before the midterms?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5908540&forum_id=2#50165403)

Trump explicitly asked them not to just last week. They arnt stabilizing the world market because they love stability, and it isn't destabilizing it merely because doing so could hurt Washington. It's conserving its own and refusing to buy expensive replacement barrels until it has to. Also driving up prices would be an extremely expensive way to hurt the US and one that would actually transfer cash to American companies.

The Davidson Window, or aim to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, is all but gone. I thought that was a huge reason for the war in Iran and the timing of Venezuela and Nigerian hits. I think I was wrong pegging it to one specific goal. Watch that podcast i put up today. China has a lot of problems. The US is pumping them up as some invincible juggernaut and I think that's bullshit to sell ships etc.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-sees-chinese-invasion-taiwan-unlikely-next-year-despite-2027-timeline-sources-2026-10-01/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5908540&forum_id=2#50165449)

https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/2105716760536347099

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5908540&forum_id=2#50165418)