In some areas of military strength, China has surpassed America

The modernisation of the PLA is proceeding at an extraordinary pace

Naval vessel Yantai docking at Yantai City, Shandong Province

Photograph: Xinhua/Eyevine

Nov 4th 2024

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WHOEVER SUCCEEDS Joe Biden in the White House on January 20th will receive the same simple message from all 18 of America’s intelligence agencies: Russia may be causing mayhem in Europe, but only China has the wherewithal to mount a global challenge. “Beijing is accelerating the development of key capabilities,” said the co-ordinating body for American spooks last year. Those capabilities, it added, are ones that China “believes the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) needs to confront the United States in a large-scale, sustained conflict”.

The PLA is still far from being ready for war with America. China’s official aim is to “modernise” its armed forces by 2035 and make them world-class by 2049. But the PLA has already undergone an extraordinary transformation, from a poorly trained and ill-equipped force two decades ago to a regional power today. The old image of China’s armed forces as focusing on quantity over quality is increasingly outdated. In recent years China has improved the effectiveness of its arms to such an extent that, in some areas, it has already matched or surpassed America.

Any analysis of China’s advantages has to begin with its navy—called the People’s Liberation Army Navy, or the PLAN. It is not just the world’s largest, but also has the newest vessels. Around 70% of Chinese warships were launched after 2010, compared with a quarter of America’s, according to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a think-tank in Washington. When it comes to design and material quality, Chinese ships are in many cases comparable to America’s, says the US Office of Naval Intelligence, “and China is quickly closing the gap in any areas of deficiency.”

Chart: The Economist

American warships tend to be larger and better armed, but China is catching up. One important measure of naval power is the number of vertical launch system (VLS) cells, which are in essence advanced missile launchers. In 2004 American ships, on average, had 222 VLS cells for each Chinese one, estimates CSIS. Last year that fell to around two to one. The ratio is expected to tip in the PLAN’s favour between 2026 and 2027 (see chart).

China is also doing innovative things. America has nothing like the hybrid propulsion systems in China’s Zhou-class submarines, says Tom Shugart, a retired American naval officer. He also points to a Chinese amphibious assault ship under construction, called the Type 076, which will be the world’s largest such vessel and the only one to boast a catapult to launch drones. Analysts see it as greatly improving the PLAN’s ability to extend its reach.

Up, up and ahead

China’s air force, called the PLAAF, is on a similar trajectory. Its most advanced warplanes are probably not as state-of-the-art or stealthy as America’s. But having once struggled to develop high-quality jet engines, China now produces ones that are near the calibre of those from NATO countries, argues Brendan Mulvaney of the China Aerospace Studies Institute, a US Air Force think-tank. It is also thought to churn out stealth fighters faster than America does. And the weapons carried by Chinese aircraft have improved dramatically. China is often ahead in areas where America has failed to invest, says John Culver, a former CIA analyst. He points to the range, speed, sensors and anti-jamming capabilities of Chinese air-to-air and anti-ship missiles.

The most striking progress by China has come in the area of hypersonic missiles, which fly and manoeuvre at more than five times the speed of sound. Such weapons have forced countries to rethink their defence systems. Earlier this year Jeffrey McCormick of America’s National Air and Space Intelligence Centre told Congress that China, thanks to big investments and extensive testing, had the world’s leading hypersonic arsenal. America is testing faster and more accurate missiles, says Mr Mulvaney. But China has already deployed multiple hypersonic-weapon systems.

With other arms that rely on newer technologies it is often difficult to judge who is ahead, not least because they are rarely tested in public. But the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, another think-tank, publishes an annual critical-technology tracker measuring high-impact research across countries. Its survey in 2024 found that China ranked top in six out of seven crucial defence-related areas: advanced aircraft engines, drones and collaborative robots, hypersonic detection and tracking, advanced robotics, autonomous systems and space-launch systems. America was ahead only in small satellites.

Such rankings are highly contested and probably fail to capture the secret research done on all sides. One area where America believes it has a lead is artificial intelligence. But American officials worry about who is applying it better. A memorandum from President Joe Biden, signed last month, instructs the Pentagon and American intelligence agencies to more quickly adopt and deploy AI. “We have to get this right, because there is probably no other technology that will be more critical to our national security in the years ahead,” said Jake Sullivan, America’s national security adviser, launching the memorandum.

China, of course, faces the same challenge of employing AI. It may find it even harder, given the Communist Party’s demand for tight ideological control of the armed forces and the PLA’s convoluted command structure. American curbs on high-tech exports to China and a dearth of technologically skilled recruits won’t make things any easier.

Combat effectiveness is not just the sum of individual weapons and technologies. The spectacular failure of Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was at odds with many Western assessments of Russian military prowess, which failed to account for intangible factors. China’s armed forces have their own problems, such as corruption, inadequate logistics and poor integration between the army, navy and air force. China also lacks combat experience, having not fought a war in decades. Simulations held by American officials over the past decade suggest a variety of outcomes remain plausible in any conflict with China.

But that is scant consolation for those watching the PLA’s progress over the past two decades. There are few peacetime precedents for the speed and scale of China’s military modernisation. It has made that journey while barely breaking a fiscal sweat, spending less than 2% of its GDP on the armed forces, compared with more than 3% in America. “We are in a race for military technological superiority with a capable pacing challenge,” argued Frank Kendall, the secretary of the US Air Force, in April. “Our cushion is gone. We are out of time.” ■

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