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Guy who predicted Kamala's polling lead here; shes fuct
Poast new message in this thread
Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:13 PM Author: https://imgur.com/a/IkQnGlr She had tremendous natural advantages I didn't expect her to squander so epically. The Oprah interview was when I knew for sure she was dun. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2...id#48123132) |
Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:14 PM Author: ADVANCED darkness (🍑 Pronouns: Ausländer/Raus döp dödö döp) her IQ or her sobriety were never natural advantages (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2...id#48123136) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:19 PM Author: https://imgur.com/a/IkQnGlr You didn't predict shit faggot. I did. That's a fact (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2...id#48123152) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:21 PM Author: ADVANCED darkness (🍑 Pronouns: Ausländer/Raus döp dödö döp) jeez man I was just observing on what natural DISadvantages (her low IQ and her drunkenness) have come out recently including in the Oprah interview (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2...id#48123161) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:23 PM Author: https://imgur.com/a/IkQnGlr I know. You have encyclopedic knowledge of the disadvantages. Just like everyone else. Congrats.
You have no idea what advantages she had though. That's why you never predicted her polling surge. You still don't know why that happened. That's why you're weak. That's why you're easy to defeat by anyone who's not as retarded as Kamala. |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:20 PM Author: MASE There were two spikes in polling for her. One when she entered the race, leading to a massive burst in response bias as Super Democrats who finally had hope for the first time in this election cycle flooded the polls. She was polling around 99/1 with Democrats during this time and the best she could pull together with D+3-D+7 samples was a +3% on average. Second spike happened after the debate, but that one deflated much more quickly.
Could she win? Maybe. It would require levels of Democratic turnout not seen since Obama. I have seen zero metrics to suggest that.
The real truth is that the election has probably been decided since January (or June). Political Science Academics Predicted the 2016 election result to within 0.1% up to Five months prior to the election, and polling aggregations 11 months before the 2020 election. From their study:
“It seems that the leads of Biden and Clinton on Jan 31st were highly predictive for the (popular vote) final result in November. Biden won by 4.5 and Clinton won by 2.1.”
On January 1st 2024 the Real Clear Politics Aggregate stood at Trump 46.6% Biden 44.3%. This was of course long before the campaigns commenced, and the economy would have been the driving factor behind Trump’s lead at that point.
If the 2016 analysis which showed June was the deciding month the final June aggregate was Trump 46.8 Biden 44.9% |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:25 PM Author: https://imgur.com/a/IkQnGlr You didn't predict anything. You're weak. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2...id#48123178) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:26 PM Author: MASE It was a blue mirage. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2...id#48123182) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:39 PM Author: https://imgur.com/a/IkQnGlr How come I predicted it but you failed? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2...id#48123252) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:31 PM Author: LathamTouchedMe "On January 1st 2024 the Real Clear Politics Aggregate stood at Trump 46.6% Biden 44.3%. This was of course long before the campaigns commenced, and the economy would have been the driving factor behind Trump’s lead at that point."
You're predicting a popular vote win for trump? |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:33 PM Author: MASE We'll see. Definitely possible. I will predict that if he loses it, it will be by an even smaller margin than the 3 million vote gap between him and Hillary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2...id#48123218) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:40 PM Author: https://imgur.com/a/IkQnGlr He's terrified to predict anything. No self confidence. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2...id#48123258) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:41 PM Author: MASE Fuck it. I'll put myself on the line. I predict he'll win the popular vote. Happy? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2...id#48123266) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:48 PM Author: a certain dog being eaten by feral haitian (gunneratttt) you make a bunch of conflicting and vague predictions constantly and then declare you were "right" when a few of them turn out to be somewhat true, ignoring all the ones that didn't. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2...id#48123279) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:49 PM Author: MASE But don't we all? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2...id#48123285) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:50 PM Author: https://imgur.com/a/IkQnGlr Go suck Bibi's cock with MASE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2...id#48123289) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:53 PM Author: .;:..;:.;.:.;.,,,..,.:,.;....;,;;;..;,..,,.,,...., "would require levels of Democratic turnout not seen since Obama" You mean BIDEN. He got 81 million votes and is the most popular POTUS of all time |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:24 PM Author: cool cope browncel no actual humans are voting for this person
it's all flame |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:25 PM Author: animeboi (.) . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2...id#48123177) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:41 PM Author: https://imgur.com/a/IkQnGlr It's political science. That's why I was able to make accurate predictions. Sorry about your low iq (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2...id#48123267) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:49 PM Author: Soren "Bob" Odenkierkegaard (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2...id#48123288) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:54 PM Author: cock of michael obama (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2...id#48123311) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:55 PM Author: MASE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2...id#48123317) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:56 PM Author: Trump is the Lib Killer (TDNW) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2...id#48123323) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:51 PM Author: Screens of Screencraft actually i predicted it before you, sorry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2...id#48123295) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:55 PM Author: https://imgur.com/a/IkQnGlr Shitcons were so dumbfounded when Kamala's numbers popped overnight and stayed persistently high for six weeks. Now they're trying to deny it ever happened. Shitcons are easy to manipulate and control, like dogs. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2...id#48123312) |