https://x.com/ripplebrain/status/2028306378494722479

I'm going to spell out what I believe actually happened here, ignoring the bit about conjuring infinity PAC-3s out of nowhere:

• The Israelis and the Zionist blackmail victim contingent in the USG (Graham, et al.) exerted pressure on Trump by setting a date for attacking Iran with or without US support, and by other means

• Portions of the Pentagon and US intelligence apparatus delivered sober assessments about the futility of killing Khamenei, the precarious position of the US forces in the region, and low munitions stockpiles

• These assessments were largely ignored and the personnel who presented them sidelined in favor of wildly optimistic Israeli assessments

• Meanwhile, Kushner and Witkoff did their jobs as Israeli agents and misrepresented the Iranian position to Trump, portraying them as intransigent

This is why the admin expected a four-day war, and why they started putting out feelers to the Iranians as soon as the shock of things going sideways on day one wore off.

The Israeli goal is for this to escalate as much as possible as quickly as possible in the hopes of an extreme overreaction by the Trump admin. They want to use the US military as a tool for their own objectives before American power wanes to the point it can no longer effectively turn Iran into another Syria. They're hoping Trump's aversion to losing and bad optics will force him into a fait accompli where he commits ever increasing assets to this conflict.

If the US suffers major casualties, all the better, it will just lock us in further unless Trump has the wherewithal to abort the entire thing and suffer the political consequences.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5840220&forum_id=2...id#49707190)

That is why, tactically (and even in mid-term forecasting).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5840220&forum_id=2...id#49707192)

this guy's reasoned-out explanation seems a lot more plausible

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5840220&forum_id=2...id#49707217)

https://www.timesofisrael.com/complete-gamechanger-iran-close-to-buying-supersonic-anti%e2%80%91ship-missiles-from-china/

hth

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5840220&forum_id=2...id#49707221)

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/iran-nears-deal-buy-supersonic-anti-ship-missiles-china-2026-02-24/

"The deal for the Chinese‑made CM‑302 missiles is near completion..."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5840220&forum_id=2...id#49707231)

The potential sale would underscore deepening military ties between China and Iran at a moment of heightened regional tension, complicating US efforts to contain Iran’s missile program and curb its nuclear activities. It would also signal China’s growing willingness to assert itself in a region long dominated by US military might.

China, Iran and Russia hold annual joint naval exercises, and last year the US Treasury Department sanctioned several Chinese entities for supplying chemical precursors to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for use in its ballistic missile program. China rejected those allegations, saying it was unaware of the cases cited in the sanctions and that it strictly enforces export controls on dual-use products.

While hosting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian for a military parade in Beijing in September, Chinese President Xi Jinping told the Iranian leader that “China supports Iran in safeguarding sovereignty, territorial integrity and national dignity.”

China joined Russia and Iran in a joint letter on October 18 to say they believed the decision to reimpose sanctions was flawed.

“Iran has become a battlefield between the US” on one side and Russia and China on the other, said one of the officials who was briefed by Iran’s government on the missile negotiations.

The deal comes as the US assembles an armada within striking distance of Iran, including the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group. The USS Gerald R. Ford and its escorts are also heading to the region. The two ships together can carry more than 5,000 personnel and 150 aircraft.

“China does not want to see a pro-Western regime in Iran,” said Citrinowicz, the Israeli specialist on Iran. “That would be a threat to their interests. They are hoping that this regime will stay.”

Trump said on February 19 he was giving Iran 10 days to reach an agreement over its nuclear program or face military action. The US is preparing for the possibility of sustained, weeks-long operations against Iran if Trump orders an attack, Reuters reported on February 13.

Depleted arsenal

The CM-302 purchase would be a significant improvement in an Iranian arsenal depleted by last year’s war, said Pieter Wezeman, a senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

China’s state-owned China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) markets the CM-302 as the world’s best anti-ship missile, capable of sinking an aircraft carrier or destroyer. The weapons system can be mounted on ships, aircraft or mobile ground vehicles. It can also take out targets on land.

CASIC did not respond to a request for comment.

Iran is also in discussions to acquire Chinese surface‑to‑air missile systems, so-called MANPADS, anti‑ballistic weapons, and anti-satellite weapons, the six people said.

China was a major arms supplier to Iran in the 1980s, but large‑scale weapons transfers dwindled by the late 1990s under international pressure. In recent years, US officials have accused Chinese companies of providing missile-related materials to Iran but have not publicly accused it of supplying complete missile systems.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5840220&forum_id=2...id#49707227)