i think that in Jan/Feb, Trump is going to fire at least one member of the NLRB, which will force SCOTUS to consider the constitutionality of the NLRB much sooner than it otherwise would. SCOTUS will likely find that the NLRA is invalid because under that law the NLRB's members and judges cannot be fired at will by the president, and thus Trump had the right to fire said NLRB member.

This will be an opportunity for the Republican-controlled Senate and House (?) to "fix" the NLRA by completely rewriting it and replacing it with something that looks almost nothing like the NLRA in place now. they'll even call it something like the "employee freedom act" or "employees making america great act" or some shit. this will ensure that prole working people think it's a good law. because as it says in the name, it gives them freedom. all they would have to do to fix the law is make NLRB members removable at will and maybe do away with the ALJs and just give charging parties a right to sue in court rather than the agency conducting trials. but they will completely gut the law and limit it specifically to situations concerning relations between an employer and a labor union.

this is all wrapped by 2026 and my career is done, so it's good i stayed in this shitty little house and saved (1) enough for my kids' college and (2) enough in retirement accounts that even if i stop saving now, i should have $10-12 million in 20 years.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630754&forum_id=2...id#48314387)

i truly don't care. over the last two years, my family has moved financially to a place where we are set. i can't afford to not work at all, but my wife makes 100k, and i am sure i could find some bullshit job making 100-150k. that is more than enough for us to cover expenses and then some. college is paid for and we have like $2.5m in retirement accounts so i don't HAVE to save more for retirement. i'm also good for the next two years at my firm because my numbers were really good this year - so i'll have two years making at least $500k per before it all goes to shit.

maybe i'll just do sales?

i'm exaggerating a bit bc it's not like unions will disappear when the law gets rewritten, but it will likely be hobbled and might not be as enjoyable. i hate doing the EEOC shit bc you just write position statements then a shitlawyer gets a "right to sue" letter. after discovery you write a nuisance check. the NLRB prosecutes its own cases so those hearings usually go forward - not as expensive. not sure i want to deal with being an insurance shitlawyer.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630754&forum_id=2...id#48314431)

Or a corporate attorney, the only way to make law palatable. I’m not at all specialized.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630754&forum_id=2...id#48314476)

Plenty of litigators end up in house generalists too.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630754&forum_id=2...id#48314490)

this is easily fixed by congress, but i think that instead of narrowly rewriting the law they'll overhaul the fuck out of it, to basically eliminate protection for PCA unrelated to union activity.

congress has tons of air cover to do this because the NLRB swung so hard to the left under Biden. the agency really lost its way and may have killed itself. i think even prole laypeople at this point are aware of all that loony bullshit the NLRB has done.

i'm about 40% certain this all happens. i am not sure that trump will force the issue by firing a Board member, but i think he very well might. it depends on how much of a priority labor is for him.

abruzzo is definitely gone on day one. the best case scenario for people like me is that she gets fired and he just does the normal move of stacking a R majority on the NLRB and the courts uphold the NLRA, but i don't think that is all that likely.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630754&forum_id=2...id#48314452)

Then you'd have many states steps in and create their own labor-mgmt relations scheme. You think CA/NY and every other dem controlled state wouldn't set up a recognition process for unions in the absence of a federal preemption? Even states where Trump won would do this - too much BIG LABOR money in politics for this not to happen.

Yeah, Wyoming and Florida won't, but under your scenario there's no way a new federal law would "outlaw" union representation

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630754&forum_id=2...id#48314470)

given SCOTUS's recent decisions signaling that it's time to dismantle the admin state, i think it's very likely that they affirm the 5th cir.

trump firing an NLRB member brings this to the fore immediately rather than in a couple years. we will see what he does.

states might rush to pass their own labor laws, but i have every confidence that congress would act immediately to replace the NLRA. the thing is they won't just fix the unconstitutional removal restrictions, i feel they'll overhaul the substance of the law. whether this happens i think depends on whether the Rs win the house.

i do not think that a federal law banning unions will be passed, not sure how you arrived at that based on what i said. in the last 20 years, the NLRA has been found to prohibit:

1. disciplining employees for screaming FUCK YOU at their manager

2. presenting nonsupervisory employees with a severance agreement that prohibits the employee from denigrating the employer/requiring the employee to keep the agreement confidential.

3. offering a noncompete to a nonsupervisory employee (the NLRB hasn't passed on this, but a judge found that way in June)

4. having handbook provisions that tell employees that they have to treat coworkers with respect, can't walk off the job in the middle of a shift, and all kinds of other wacky bullshit.

the vast majority of cases before the NLRB now deal with nonunion employers, with no union organizing in sight. i think if the NLRA gets overhauled, it is going to be VERY narrowly drafted to protect employees' rights to unionize/not unionize (most or all other "protected concerted activity" will be outside the scope of the law), and govern management-union relations. this was the aim of the law when it was passed, but over time as unions declined the NLRB found ways to make itself relevant.

i also expect that the law will enshrine the right of employees to vote on unionization. the NLRB has chipped away at that big time.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630754&forum_id=2...id#48314947)

1) agree that SCOTUS could find NLRB (or at least aspects of NLRA) unconstitutional. Admin state is fucked and that's a good thing. ULPs going to court and not ALJs would be awesome. RD decision making re election issues going to federal district court (instead of being basically unreviewable until you test cert...after a bad outcome) would also be incredible. I could see things like that happening.

2) if the NLRA is totally struck down, which is a possibility although not likely imo, then I see it as far more likely for the nut job states to fill the void than I do that Congress can get a new labor act through. And unless they do in order to preempt (ie "make illegal") the crazy state laws that will come, then it could actually get worse on east and west coasts, and maybe portions of the upper Midwest.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630754&forum_id=2...id#48315124)

Also most white collar work is pretty shitty irl and should have the same protections.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630754&forum_id=2...id#48314475)

it seems the GOP may not even have won the furking house once CA's results are finished

goodluck trumpkins

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630754&forum_id=2...id#48314484)

but there is a 75% chance imo that SCOTUS is going to find the NLRA/NLRB to be unconstitutional. i am hoping for a moderate rewriting of it for purely selfish reasons.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630754&forum_id=2...id#48314493)

that said, the NLRB went completely out of control under Biden and brought us to this. Elon would not have bothered to argue that the NLRB was unconstitutional if the agency didn't go after him for including a broad nondisparagement clause in an employee severance agreement.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630754&forum_id=2...id#48314500)

The constitutionality of the law is headed to scotus bc there are cases pending in multiple circuits and I’m certain the 5th will find the nlra to be invalid.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630754&forum_id=2...id#48315451)