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odds Republicans lose the house in November?
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Date: March 15th, 2018 2:34 AM Author: soul-stirring trust fund kitty cat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2...id#35609325) |
Date: March 15th, 2018 2:36 AM Author: startling lilac background story 65.27% (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2...id#35609330) |
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Date: March 15th, 2018 2:36 AM Author: vigorous house 80% (and I'm a conservative)
just hoping we hold senate |
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Date: March 15th, 2018 2:37 AM Author: startling lilac background story def not losing the senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2...id#35609335) |
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Date: March 15th, 2018 2:48 AM Author: Sticky giraffe That's what people said in 2006 too and all the same seats are up this year and the blue wave momentum feels even bigger this year than it was then. For example Alabama going blue even with a shitty GOP candidate was unthinkable in 2006. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2...id#35609368) |
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Date: March 15th, 2018 2:49 AM Author: startling lilac background story Roy Moore wasn't just "shitty". He was an alleged child rapist. A lot of republicans didn't even show up to vote. Doesn't really seem like a representative example. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2...id#35609373) |
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Date: March 15th, 2018 2:56 AM Author: vigorous house Plus there just aren't many Senate seats Dems can win. Texas? Cruz's opponent is anti-gun? Tennessee? Unless Blackburn molested a 14 year old boy, she's fine. they have Arizona and Nevada, they need both plus not losing any others. Possible yes, but not likely. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2...id#35609412) |
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Date: March 15th, 2018 2:54 AM Author: Magenta Hell Pistol how many seats were they defending in 2006 though? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2...id#35609400) |
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Date: March 15th, 2018 2:56 AM Author: cracking sapphire ticket booth If McCain retires early due to health concerns (not that I'm wishing that upon him, he's one of the few honorable politicians left) then Democrats could win 2 seats in Arizona and 1 in Nevada this cycle.
In wave years, all the close races tend to go for one party or the other. They're just need to hold onto the vast majority of their vulnerable seats. There is a viable path, though very narrow.
I think it's more likely that they net 50-60 house seats but the senate is a draw simply because they are defending so many. |
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Date: March 15th, 2018 2:57 AM Author: vigorous house Trump isn't THAT unpopular in Nevada, that's not a lock for the Dems. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2...id#35609415) |
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Date: March 15th, 2018 2:58 AM Author: cracking sapphire ticket booth I didn't say it's a lock. But Heller is definitely the underdog, particularly because Dems recruited a good candidate. I'd be surprised if he survived. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2...id#35609424) |
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Date: March 15th, 2018 3:09 AM Author: vigorous house are you more confident in Nevada than Arizona? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2...id#35609462) |
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Date: March 15th, 2018 3:13 AM Author: cracking sapphire ticket booth of course. Nevada is a state that is slightly left of center while Arizona is a state that is slightly right of center.
both states are inelastic, meaning it is all about who turns out, very few swing voters. democrats are fired up to turn out. this makes Nevada more favorable to democrats than Arizona because they are a greater share of the electorate.
I think Democrats will win both states though. |
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Date: March 15th, 2018 3:04 AM Author: Self-centered lay gunner "he's one of the few honorable politicians left"
lol, however the fuck did you develop THAT impression? from his insane neocon warmongering? from his womanly bitchiness and fits of pique toward trump? from his role in the keating 5 scandal? |
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Date: March 15th, 2018 3:05 AM Author: cerebral chestnut hissy fit church ur insane if u think Trump and his national security people aren't hawks/neocons. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2...id#35609448) |
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Date: March 15th, 2018 2:38 AM Author: Sticky giraffe https://www.predictit.org/Market/2704/Which-party-will-control-the-House-after-2018-midterms (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2...id#35609338) |
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Date: March 15th, 2018 2:58 AM Author: cracking sapphire ticket booth LJL at the comments on that site. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2...id#35609419) |
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Date: March 15th, 2018 3:01 AM Author: 180 crystalline jew Near certainty Republicans lose the house.
Democrats will net half the seats they need out of California (huge anti-Trump backlash) and Pennsylvania (gerrymandered districts thrown out) alone.
That leaves them needing only 12 more seats. They could win those simply in districts Hillary won last time (i.e., UMC suburban swing districts). |
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Date: March 15th, 2018 3:11 AM Author: vigorous house this sounds about right. at this point I'm assuming they lose the house, I'm hoping it's not by THAT much, and that they keep the senate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2...id#35609465) |
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Date: March 15th, 2018 3:16 AM Author: cracking sapphire ticket booth that's probably what ends up happening.
But I don't think Democrats will just barely take back the house. They're going to win 30 seats minimum, but probably more.
Saccone's failure to win an ultra-republican district after Trump and family made numerous campaign visits in the last couple of weeks shows how weak the Republican brand is right now. The immediate consequences = more Republican retirements. Further eroding their chances. |
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Date: March 15th, 2018 3:20 AM Author: vigorous house what we're learning is that Trump won many of these areas because Hillary was just that much worse. but when local Dems nominate a candidate to fit the district, anything can happen. My hope is that many of the R's that lose are of the moderate variety.
PA-18 wasn't really ultra-Republican. it has a Democratic registration advantage, but is an area where the national Democratic party gets no traction. |
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Date: March 7th, 2019 11:19 PM Author: soul-stirring trust fund kitty cat Trump DID drain the swamp (of Republican house members). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2...id#37896078) |
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Date: March 7th, 2019 11:19 PM Author: clear out-of-control indian lodge 45% Dems lose House (for Nov. 2020) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2...id#37896082) |
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Date: November 6th, 2025 9:46 PM Author: nyuug (Gangnam WGWAG Playboy) tired of winning, actually (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2...id#49408928) |
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Date: November 9th, 2025 7:40 PM Author: nyuug (Gangnam WGWAG Playboy) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3919182&forum_id=2...id#49415104) |