PLA study suggests China’s Fire Dragon missiles could sink US warships

•A simulation indicates that the missiles, which have been exported to the UAE, could destroy Ticonderoga-class cruisers

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Stephen Chen

Stephen Chen

in Beijing

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Published: 6:00am, 20 Jun 2024

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A Chinese tactical ballistic missile known as the Fire Dragon 480 that has been exported to the Middle East would be capable of sinking a US cruiser patrolling the Red Sea, according to a computer simulation run by the People’s Liberation Army.

With close coordination of a swarm of drones and the adoption of new tactics, an average of six of these long-range guided rockets would be needed to destroy a large US warship, according to a peer-reviewed paper published in the academic journal Command Control & Simulation on May 15.

In Yemen, the Houthis have been targeting shipping in the Red Sea, actions the Iranian-backed group says are intended to stop supplies of weapons and other equipment to Israel following its assault on Gaza.

The group has struck a number of cargo ships, including a Chinese-owned tanker, and lately, their targets have broadened to include the US aircraft carrier strike group stationed in the region.

The Houthis have employed a diverse array of attack methods, including ballistic missiles, drones, and anti-ship cruise missiles.

These assaults have imposed considerable strain on US sailors, yet there is no evidence that it has caused any damage to the US Navy.

The Fire Dragon 480, a long-range rocket exclusively produced for export by Norinco Group, is widely recognised as a tactical ballistic missile due to its precision-guided sensors, enabling it to strike moving targets with high accuracy.

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“Its warhead surpasses the 400kg mark, significantly outweighing that of a conventional anti-ship missile. Moreover, its impact velocity exceeds 500 metres (1,640 feet) per second, ensuring that a 10,000-tonne cruiser would be destroyed upon being struck by just two of these missiles,” Li Jiangjiang, a scientist with the PLA’s 92228 unit, wrote in the paper.

So far the only publicly disclosed records of the weapon being exported is a US$245 million deal with the United Arab Emirates, which joined the Saudi-led coalition fighting against the Houthis in Yemen.

It is commonly believed that the Fire Dragon 480’s range may be restricted to 290km (180 miles), Li wrote in the paper that in practical applications, its attack range could exceed 500km.

The rocket can be launched from a high-speed mobile wheeled platform designed to withstand harsh environments, making them relatively straightforward and cost-effective weapons.

However, when pitted against US warships equipped with robust defence systems, it is generally assumed that such attacks would prove ineffective.

What is happening in the Red Sea?

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The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower carrier and its escort group are patrolling the Red Sea. The group includes the USS Philippine Sea, a Ticonderoga-class cruiser, the type used in the PLA simulation.

According to Li’s paper, it is armed with two Mk41 vertical launch systems, capable of firing more than 200 air defence missiles, including the Standard 6 and Sea Sparrow.

In the military war game simulation, 12 Fire Dragon 480 rockets were launched to attack two Ticonderoga-class cruisers.

Before the engagement, the operators of the rockets had access to low-precision satellite imagery, allowing them to make a rough estimation of the US warships’ positions. Upon reaching the target area, the rockets fired up their on board sensors to search for targets and fine-tune their trajectories accordingly.

In response, the Ticonderoga-class cruisers launched numerous air defence missiles and activated the Phalanx close-in weapon system.

Among these missiles, the Standard 6, with a range of 240km, achieved a 71 pert cent hit rate, while the shorter-range Sea Sparrow missile had a 44 per cent hit rate.

As the smoke cleared, one of the cruisers sank.

In an alternative scenario, scientists substituted the warheads of eight rockets with “swarm warheads”, each housing six drones.

As these modified rockets neared the US fleet, they slowed down and released their drone payloads. The objective of these drone swarms was to divert the cruisers’ air defence firepower and provide more precise target coordinates for a second wave of rocket attacks.

“Once the long-range rockets have completed their assaults, the swarm proceeds to launch a direct attack on any remaining enemy vessels,” Li said.

After numerous rounds of simulations, scientists estimated that the survival rate of the two Ticonderoga-class cruisers under this tactic was close to zero.

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According to Li, drones used for swarm attacks can be of the Switchblade 600 variety or similar models. With an operational radius of more than 40km, these drones are cost-effective and readily available on the international market.

These drones are vulnerable to near-defence systems such as the Phalanx. However, when integrated with long-range rockets, they pose a significant threat to warships, according to Li.

For the Fire Dragon 480 and its accompanying drone swarm tactics to reach their full potential, China’s long-range rocket launcher system needs to receive some technological upgrades and modifications, according to the study.

Anti-interference abilities and heterogeneous data links between the rockets and drones must also be strengthened to meet the demands of actual combat.

Meanwhile the US is gradually decommissioning its Ticonderoga-class cruisers in favour of more modern ships, with the last one due to be retired in 2027.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5544372&forum_id=2...id#47771444)