Author: queensbridge benzo

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5618544&forum_id=2#48243084)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5618544&forum_id=2...id.#48243108)

Polymarket was more accurate than polling last election

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5618544&forum_id=2...id.#48243147)

CR, honestly this election is 100% over from a mathematical perspective at this point. There's simply no way, mathematically speaking, for Trump to win at this point. It's kind of a waste of time and money to even hold the rest of the election IMO, we should probably all just admit that Kamala has already won and call it off at this point.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5618544&forum_id=2...id.#48243466)

So Dems are now saying well we're winning independents and election day advantage for Trump will be down because all the same people voted early? And this is to explain why no one is voting early for Harris?

How do we know her early vote total is down?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5618544&forum_id=2...id.#48243160)

PA: In 2020, Dems had a 1.1M advantage in early voter returns. They are only at 370K as of today, unlikely to hit 500K before election day.

NC: Absolute early voter advantage for Repubs, ahead of 2020.

AZ: Absolute early voter advantage for Repubs, ahead of 2020.

The other swing states are a bit of a black box, but rural turnout is generally very high, suggesting Trump's base is excited to turn out for him. Mixed results from urban areas suggest lower enthusiasm from Harris' base.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5618544&forum_id=2...id.#48243189)

This idea about banking voters, ok so they're Trump voters who may or may not have actually made it to the polls on ED? It's just more accountability or something?

And then who are Trump ED voters? Seems like everyone got the message to go vote early. Who is waiting around for November 5th? I know the campaign is saying they're reaching out to stragglers. Is this real?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5618544&forum_id=2...id.#48243240)

as for early vote, you'd always rather bank the vote. say it rains on election day, or there's some event that makes getting to the polls difficult, turnout may be lower. relying on getting people to the polls on one day is always more sketchy.

i think the campaign is pushing EV this year, whereas in 2020 they were openly hostile to it. there's still a lot of gop voters who just prefer to vote on election day. i'm waiting for election day myself. but there is certainly some degree of cannibilization.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5618544&forum_id=2...id.#48243260)

They're hanging their hats on the fact that Trumpkins are now early voters (thus cannibalizing their election day returns), AND, ALSO, Democrat voters have abandoned early voting (meaning that they will have better historical election day returns than they have had in recent memory).

Suffice to say, the political science is settled on both of these indisputable facts, and you're a copium-huffing retarded Trumpkin if you say otherwise.

Source: Crackpipe/"I Made It Up" (he claimed, without evidence).

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5618544&forum_id=2...id.#48243468)

That the most hackish partisans on both sides invariably think the early voting numbers are great for them tells you all you need to know about the utility of looking at early voting numbers.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5618544&forum_id=2...id.#48243177)

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?calc_type=voteShare&count_prefix=current_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=WI&view_type=state&vote_mode=1

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?calc_type=voteShare&count_prefix=current_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&state=MI&view_type=state&vote_mode=1

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5618544&forum_id=2...id.#48243183)

In every single swing state, Trump has pulled to within shooting distance or surpassed Kamala. The trend has been toward Trump, incontrovertibly.

We at this point really only have mail-in ballots requested, vote by mail returns, and polls to go by. Analysis of the former two has been almost entirely wishcasting on both sides. Probably the best you can do without larding up your analysis with largely or totally unsupported conclusions is vaguely ostend toward "where were we in the last cycle with this voting modality at this time" and just do arithmetic. There, things are looking good for Trump: generally, he has more than before. A theory of the data that somehow explains that away or actually concludes the inverse is literally paid-for advertising. At the same time, a theory that says that this surely guarantees a victory for Trump are also suspect: 2024 is different from 2022 and 2020. Republican attitudes have changed. Everything has changed, actually.

Comparing likely importantly different voter behavior to the, like, two germane data points (2020 and 2022)--arguably neither of which is actually relevant--is really likely to mislead everyone. Everyone with a stake in the election should be feeling, at this point, nothing other than vibes as it relates to early voter analysis.

As it relates to polls: at least we are doing more frequent sampling here, and polling methodology is not extremely different election-to-election (as voter behavior that models try to approximate is). Generally, polls undersample Republican voters of every propensity, and those not doing so are generally scrubbed out of models or written off as partisan poll-packing days before the election. "Kooky" groups like Rasmussen and Trafalgar, granted, are paid partisans. But even Nate Silver admits their average "miss" were among the smallest of the last two cycles. Generally, polls systematically overcount D and undercount R. That should worry the Ds.

Having said that, it seems as though pollsters are trimming back the monster misses from 2016. The most accurate pollster of the past two cycles has Trump leading in the general, almost beyond the MoE. That's wild. Big if true. But it also has very close battleground state results.

You're nuts if you don't think this is an extremely tight race. I personally think Trump sweeps the battlegrounds (maybe he loses MI), but I'm basing that on the only evidence that anyone actually has right now: gut and vibes.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5618544&forum_id=2...id.#48243548)