i would bet a huge percentage of roth contributions are made by people who exceed the traditional ira income cap, in which case the “alternative” to (a) tax revenue now with deferred cap gains tax is (b) tax revenue now with no deferral.

“Thus, the Roth is a great way to make whatever tax cut/new program that politicians want to fund seem less expensive than it actually is.”

i don’t even understand what this means.

“The minute they try to tax Roth withdrawals, the gig is up, and they will never be able to use that scam again.”

roths came about in 1997, which means that people have been contributing to them for their entire working careers are still in their 40s at the oldest. in any case, when the withdrawals really start happening in 20 or so years, a reversal of tax policy would, according to your suppositions, mean “revenue now” instead of revenue later.

“Even if President AOC did try it, she would almost certainly get slapped by SCOTUS, which is almost certain to have a conservative majority for the rest of our lifetimes.”

xo is increasingly old and scotus justices are increasingly young, but the median ages have not yet inflected. good luck with that plan.

“So I think the Roth tax advantages are pretty damn safe.”

okay!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5708852&forum_id=2...id.#48836308)

As for SCOTUS, which justices will be retirement age in the next 25 years? Basically just Thomas and Alito. Probably Roberts as well, but even that's not a given. There is basically zero chance that Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, or Barrett retires by the time any poasters start cashing out their Roth accounts. To get a shitlib majority, all three would have to retire under a Democratic POTUS and a Democratic Senate. And given the overwhelming advantage that the Republicans have in the Senate right now, that is extremely unlikely. These is a slim chance of a liberal SCOTUS when poasters are nursing home age, but not when we retire.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5708852&forum_id=2...id.#48838090)

the average age of the five (reasonably) reliable conservative justices is 64. since you’re such a mathematician i’ll let you figure out the rest from there.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5708852&forum_id=2...id.#48839293)

More broadly, nobody is even talking about taxing Roth accounts. There is at least some discussion about a wealth tax on the taxable assets of the ultra-wealthy, but even that went absolutely nowhere when the Democrats had complete control of Washington under Biden. The idea that the Democrats would go after the tax-free assets of the middle class rather than the taxable assets of the ultra-wealthy seems absurd.

As for the average age of SCOTUS justices, the average human has one ovary and one testicle. You missed my point entirely, which was that there is zero chance that three of the conservative SCOTUS justices retire in the next 20-30 years barring serious illness. The only way you get a liberal SCOTUS is all three of the age 70+ conservatives retire under a Democratic president with a Democratic Congress. The chances of that happening are almost nil.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5708852&forum_id=2...id.#48839310)

the scotus thing is irrelevant, although you are being obtuse about it. it doesn’t have to be a direct tax on income.

i sincerely wish i had your optimism, but you are setting yourself up for a disappointing next few decades.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5708852&forum_id=2...id.#48839321)

Washington, D.C. – Today, President Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez signed the Reinvestment and Repair for Equity Act of 2040, landmark legislation that enacts a nationwide racial reparations program funded through modest taxes on Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) and Roth Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs).

Flanked by Vice President Maxwell Frost and Treasury Secretary Ilhan Omar, President Ocasio-Cortez declared, “Today we take a meaningful step toward repairing the generational damage caused by centuries of systemic injustice. True justice means more than apologies—it means investment.”

The new law implements a progressive surtax on annual contributions to HSAs and Roth IRAs for individuals in the top 30% income bracket. Additionally, dormant accounts with over $250,000 in untapped assets will incur a 2.5% annual “equity reinvestment fee,” redirected to fund the Reparations Trust.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5708852&forum_id=2...id.#48838118)