Polls this tight imply mongol style devastation

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5626089&forum_id=2...id.#48288590)

1) trump was leading in jan 2020 but sharply declined during covid

2) biden came off as sharp and likable among voters, kamala doesn't

3) the current administration, which kamala is second in command of, is viewed negatively

all of three of these are objectively true and reflected in the polls. trump loss by ~2pts or less in several swing states that, if he would have won, he would have won the election.

so, for a person to believe kamala will win, they have to believe that these three factors are not enough to swing a few states 2pts. states which voted djt in 2016.

the only reason to think this is that people are buy the kamala messaging that trump is hitler or that his NY felonies made him unelectable. it's hard for me to envision someone who thought trump was ok in 2016 but doesn't think so today. i was a lincoln club vance fag in 2016 and there are many like me. i don't think a single person that was a trumpmo in 2016 but has since become convinced trump isn't fit for POTUS.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5626089&forum_id=2...id.#48288662)

2. Dobbs

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5626089&forum_id=2...id.#48288673)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president/trumpbidenfavorability.html

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/kamala-harris

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump

rc fail? the issue isn't whether harris is more likable than trump, it's the gap between kamala versus biden to trump.

heading into 2020 biden was viewed slightly favorable/even whereas trump had about -10 into disfavorable. about -10 to -15 gap between them. right now trump has a -7 spread and kamala has about a -3.

the gap between the trump and the dem candidate in favorability is 3x higher in 2020 than it is now.

2) fair point there.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5626089&forum_id=2...id.#48288754)

Trump and Vance know enough to skate around it, saying "I personally believe x, but I respect the other view", etc.

But its a real fucking problem and the only electoral silver lining to a Harris win would be Dems codifying Roe and owning that forever. Just return to GOP fundraising off a zealous but tiny group of pro-lifers, but never delivering on anything.

Its a terrible, convoluted, poisonous issue and the GOP needs to drop it asap

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5626089&forum_id=2...id.#48288766)

we wouldn't unring the bell if we could. and we can't anyway. how could we "drop it?" gop tries to stay away from it as much as possible except for a handful of "national abortion ban" radicals. trump/vance have to own dobbs and they answer they question the best they can when presented.

dems are the ones needling the gop about it, because they know it resonates with female voters. but what can the gop do about that? all you can do is explain why you think roe was a bad decision, that states controlling abortion =/= banning abortion, and committing not to introduce any federal law prohibiting abortion. beyond that, dobbs is what we wanted, we got it, and yeah, we have to live with the consequences.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5626089&forum_id=2...id.#48288840)