The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 12/10/15 |
| boyish hideous orchestra pit mediation | 12/12/15 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 01/02/17 |
| Carmine center dopamine | 01/06/16 |
| Wine pontificating hospital idea he suggested | 01/06/16 |
| Wine pontificating hospital idea he suggested | 06/05/16 |
| vermilion fragrant double fault nursing home | 03/26/16 |
| Learning Disabled Ladyboy School | 01/02/17 |
| Vigorous Deer Antler Business Firm | 10/25/18 |
| Flirting shimmering senate death wish | 12/10/15 |
| thriller piazza sneaky criminal | 12/10/15 |
| seedy pink public bath | 12/10/15 |
| walnut indian lodge | 12/10/15 |
| flatulent saffron whorehouse codepig | 12/15/15 |
| contagious immigrant | 12/10/15 |
| Ungodly shrine internal respiration | 12/10/15 |
| Bespoke disgusting water buffalo antidepressant drug | 12/10/15 |
| Rambunctious Swashbuckling Trailer Park | 12/11/15 |
| electric clown market | 12/12/15 |
| Racy Hilarious Idiot | 12/16/15 |
| carnelian concupiscible field cuck | 01/04/16 |
| Mustard provocative boltzmann | 11/09/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 12/11/15 |
| Vengeful goyim | 12/11/15 |
| Slap-happy headpube stead | 12/11/15 |
| Rambunctious Swashbuckling Trailer Park | 12/11/15 |
| Soul-stirring dysfunction wagecucks | 12/12/15 |
| Cyan Zippy Tank Turdskin | 01/25/16 |
| Trip flickering chapel national security agency | 11/10/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 12/12/15 |
| Henna bat-shit-crazy theater stage roast beef | 12/12/15 |
| tan harsh cruise ship | 12/12/15 |
| Hyperventilating wrinkle | 12/12/15 |
| infuriating spectacular legal warrant | 12/15/15 |
| 180 native indirect expression | 12/21/15 |
| Motley giraffe | 12/12/15 |
| disturbing mind-boggling international law enforcement agency | 12/12/15 |
| curious chad step-uncle's house | 12/12/15 |
| vibrant faggot firefighter boiling water | 12/12/15 |
| Adulterous associate | 12/12/15 |
| aphrodisiac nubile roommate | 12/12/15 |
| Ungodly shrine internal respiration | 12/15/15 |
| Ungodly shrine internal respiration | 12/16/15 |
| rebellious razzle-dazzle space | 12/15/15 |
| jade frisky hall | 12/15/15 |
| Misanthropic mood genital piercing | 12/15/15 |
| buck-toothed passionate set | 12/15/15 |
| Coiffed mad cow disease | 12/15/15 |
| diverse meetinghouse | 12/15/15 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 12/15/15 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 12/15/15 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 12/15/15 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 12/15/15 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 12/15/15 |
| dashing casino keepsake machete | 01/05/16 |
| Cyan Zippy Tank Turdskin | 01/25/16 |
| Ebony outnumbered base | 12/17/16 |
| titillating affirmative action | 05/18/16 |
| Talented useless stage | 08/12/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 11/09/16 |
| razzle kink-friendly dilemma digit ratio | 11/09/16 |
| Brass marvelous university | 11/09/16 |
| glittery jet-lagged menage | 10/22/20 |
| Charismatic State | 12/15/15 |
| big fishy volcanic crater | 12/16/15 |
| Ivory effete cuckoldry | 12/16/15 |
| buff awkward house ape | 12/16/15 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 12/16/15 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 12/17/15 |
| Beady-eyed lay | 12/18/15 |
| Carmine center dopamine | 01/06/16 |
| Comical puce dingle berry gaping | 12/18/15 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 12/21/15 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 12/21/15 |
| 180 native indirect expression | 12/21/15 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 12/30/15 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 12/30/15 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 01/04/16 |
| carnelian concupiscible field cuck | 01/04/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 01/05/16 |
| Cyan Zippy Tank Turdskin | 01/25/16 |
| Beady-eyed lay | 01/05/16 |
| Bearded Cuckold Skinny Woman | 01/05/16 |
| Chest-beating Startling Garrison Famous Landscape Painting | 01/05/16 |
| tantric histrionic french chef degenerate | 01/05/16 |
| Cracking old irish cottage crackhouse | 01/05/16 |
| tantric histrionic french chef degenerate | 01/05/16 |
| Carmine center dopamine | 01/06/16 |
| tantric histrionic french chef degenerate | 01/06/16 |
| Cracking old irish cottage crackhouse | 01/05/16 |
| Talented useless stage | 01/06/16 |
| 180 native indirect expression | 01/07/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 01/08/16 |
| nudist doctorate | 01/08/16 |
| 180 native indirect expression | 01/08/16 |
| Beady-eyed lay | 01/09/16 |
| 180 native indirect expression | 01/10/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 01/18/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 01/19/16 |
| Beady-eyed lay | 01/21/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 01/25/16 |
| supple mewling forum community account | 01/25/16 |
| Cyan Zippy Tank Turdskin | 01/25/16 |
| supple mewling forum community account | 02/09/16 |
| nudist doctorate | 09/06/16 |
| Carmine center dopamine | 11/05/18 |
| Beta hunting ground | 01/29/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 02/01/16 |
| self-centered stirring site depressive | 02/01/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 02/01/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 02/07/16 |
| Bearded Cuckold Skinny Woman | 02/09/16 |
| coral ratface | 02/09/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 02/20/16 |
| Galvanic Locale | 02/20/16 |
| titillating affirmative action | 02/24/16 |
| honey-headed costumed foreskin | 02/24/16 |
| Exhilarant sadistic library blood rage | 02/27/16 |
| rebellious razzle-dazzle space | 03/09/16 |
| red stimulating home regret | 03/15/16 |
| seedy pink public bath | 03/15/16 |
| jade frisky hall | 03/16/16 |
| Opaque wild shitlib box office | 02/24/16 |
| Multi-colored church | 02/24/16 |
| jade frisky hall | 07/21/16 |
| Offensive Gaming Laptop | 02/24/16 |
| seedy pink public bath | 02/27/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 03/02/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 03/04/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 03/09/16 |
| Bearded Cuckold Skinny Woman | 03/09/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 03/15/16 |
| titillating affirmative action | 03/15/16 |
| aromatic lodge | 03/15/16 |
| Exciting Dragon Sweet Tailpipe | 03/15/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 03/16/16 |
| Ungodly shrine internal respiration | 03/16/16 |
| razzle kink-friendly dilemma digit ratio | 03/23/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 03/23/16 |
| curious chad step-uncle's house | 03/26/16 |
| Amber Cerebral Potus | 03/26/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 03/26/16 |
| dashing casino keepsake machete | 03/28/16 |
| razzle kink-friendly dilemma digit ratio | 03/28/16 |
| thriller piazza sneaky criminal | 03/28/16 |
| Talented useless stage | 08/12/16 |
| Carmine center dopamine | 11/05/18 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 03/28/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 03/29/16 |
| Up-to-no-good Son Of Senegal Address | 03/29/16 |
| Up-to-no-good Son Of Senegal Address | 03/29/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 03/29/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 03/29/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 04/01/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 04/04/16 |
| Up-to-no-good Son Of Senegal Address | 04/15/16 |
| hairraiser sickened den | 04/15/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 04/19/16 |
| appetizing quadroon | 04/20/16 |
| irradiated rehab brethren | 04/20/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 04/24/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 04/25/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 04/26/16 |
| Wonderful Bossy Institution Fat Ankles | 04/26/16 |
| Aquamarine Alcoholic Generalized Bond | 04/30/16 |
| Massive theater becky | 05/01/16 |
| Massive theater becky | 11/07/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 05/02/16 |
| razzle kink-friendly dilemma digit ratio | 05/02/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 05/03/16 |
| lilac yarmulke | 05/03/16 |
| Slippery plaza really tough guy | 05/03/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 05/04/16 |
| nudist doctorate | 05/04/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 05/05/16 |
| vibrant faggot firefighter boiling water | 05/05/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 05/05/16 |
| Multi-colored church | 05/05/16 |
| Henna bat-shit-crazy theater stage roast beef | 05/18/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 05/18/16 |
| titillating affirmative action | 05/18/16 |
| Henna bat-shit-crazy theater stage roast beef | 05/18/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 05/29/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 06/20/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 06/29/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 07/14/16 |
| pale violent abode mental disorder | 07/15/16 |
| Talented useless stage | 07/15/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 07/17/16 |
| nudist doctorate | 07/17/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 07/21/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 07/22/16 |
| Anal coffee pot | 07/22/16 |
| overrated area background story | 07/23/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 07/24/16 |
| arousing cerise legend office | 07/25/16 |
| Up-to-no-good Son Of Senegal Address | 07/25/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 07/27/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 08/05/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 08/09/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 08/12/16 |
| nudist doctorate | 08/12/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 08/12/16 |
| Lascivious Gunner | 08/12/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 08/30/16 |
| nudist doctorate | 08/30/16 |
| nudist doctorate | 09/06/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 09/13/16 |
| Up-to-no-good Son Of Senegal Address | 09/14/16 |
| Motley giraffe | 09/14/16 |
| excitant soggy puppy | 09/15/16 |
| Sick laughsome property | 09/15/16 |
| Wine pontificating hospital idea he suggested | 09/15/16 |
| Pearly low-t theatre | 09/15/16 |
| orange school cafeteria | 09/15/16 |
| Geriatric lavender kitchen partner | 09/19/16 |
| Geriatric lavender kitchen partner | 09/19/16 |
| nudist doctorate | 09/27/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 09/24/16 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 09/27/16 |
| nudist doctorate | 09/27/16 |
| Ungodly shrine internal respiration | 09/27/16 |
| heady cordovan hell ceo | 10/08/16 |
| Insecure stage | 07/29/24 |
| Up-to-no-good Son Of Senegal Address | 09/28/16 |
| Motley giraffe | 09/28/16 |
| nudist doctorate | 09/28/16 |
| irradiated rehab brethren | 09/28/16 |
| hairraiser sickened den | 09/28/16 |
| Odious Messiness Station | 10/08/16 |
| nudist doctorate | 10/09/16 |
| Vivacious transparent incel | 10/09/16 |
| nudist doctorate | 10/09/16 |
| Sable goal in life scourge upon the earth | 10/09/16 |
| Up-to-no-good Son Of Senegal Address | 10/10/16 |
| arousing cerise legend office | 10/30/16 |
| Talented useless stage | 11/01/16 |
| Pearly low-t theatre | 11/01/16 |
| Abusive spot voyeur | 11/02/16 |
| buck-toothed passionate set | 11/02/16 |
| Up-to-no-good Son Of Senegal Address | 11/07/16 |
| cream aggressive telephone | 11/08/16 |
| Up-to-no-good Son Of Senegal Address | 11/08/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 11/08/16 |
| Up-to-no-good Son Of Senegal Address | 11/08/16 |
| Razzmatazz Corner Personal Credit Line | 11/08/16 |
| Indigo jewess | 11/08/16 |
| self-centered stirring site depressive | 11/08/16 |
| Geriatric lavender kitchen partner | 11/08/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 11/08/16 |
| drab yapping weed whacker locus | 11/09/16 |
| excitant soggy puppy | 11/09/16 |
| adventurous stag film liquid oxygen | 11/09/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 11/09/16 |
| Pearly low-t theatre | 11/09/16 |
| drab yapping weed whacker locus | 11/09/16 |
| arousing cerise legend office | 11/09/16 |
| vibrant faggot firefighter boiling water | 11/09/16 |
| range | 12/03/16 |
| Trip flickering chapel national security agency | 12/07/16 |
| Ebony outnumbered base | 12/17/16 |
| chartreuse point persian | 10/11/24 |
| Newt | 11/09/16 |
| Peach Tanning Salon Round Eye | 11/09/16 |
| high-end ticket booth | 11/09/16 |
| metal pit | 11/09/16 |
| range | 11/09/16 |
| Talented useless stage | 11/09/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 11/09/16 |
| Henna bat-shit-crazy theater stage roast beef | 11/09/16 |
| nudist doctorate | 11/09/16 |
| orchid hominid | 11/09/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 11/09/16 |
| translucent dog poop sanctuary | 11/09/16 |
| corn cake trust fund | 11/09/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 11/09/16 |
| walnut indian lodge | 11/09/16 |
| Comical puce dingle berry gaping | 11/10/16 |
| supple mewling forum community account | 11/10/16 |
| Wine pontificating hospital idea he suggested | 11/10/16 |
| mint multi-billionaire | 11/10/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 11/10/16 |
| Up-to-no-good Son Of Senegal Address | 11/10/16 |
| Galvanic Locale | 11/10/16 |
| Geriatric lavender kitchen partner | 11/14/16 |
| flesh brunch | 11/14/16 |
| Domesticated balding temple | 12/04/16 |
| Ebony outnumbered base | 12/17/16 |
| chartreuse point persian | 10/11/24 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 11/25/16 |
| apoplectic jet heaven party of the first part | 12/03/16 |
| Sable goal in life scourge upon the earth | 12/04/16 |
| Yellow kitty cat | 12/07/16 |
| Wine pontificating hospital idea he suggested | 12/07/16 |
| apoplectic jet heaven party of the first part | 12/07/16 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 01/02/17 |
| hyperactive church building pocket flask | 01/02/17 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 01/02/17 |
| hyperactive church building pocket flask | 01/02/17 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 03/03/20 |
| Wine pontificating hospital idea he suggested | 01/02/17 |
| razzle kink-friendly dilemma digit ratio | 01/16/17 |
| hyperactive church building pocket flask | 01/20/17 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 01/20/17 |
| hyperactive church building pocket flask | 01/23/17 |
| Odious Messiness Station | 01/23/17 |
| hyperactive church building pocket flask | 01/23/17 |
| White milk | 01/23/17 |
| Odious Messiness Station | 01/23/17 |
| hyperactive church building pocket flask | 01/23/17 |
| hyperactive church building pocket flask | 01/25/17 |
| hyperactive church building pocket flask | 01/26/17 |
| hyperactive church building pocket flask | 02/06/17 |
| hyperactive church building pocket flask | 02/13/17 |
| hyperactive church building pocket flask | 02/27/17 |
| hyperactive church building pocket flask | 05/03/17 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 05/03/17 |
| hyperactive church building pocket flask | 09/21/17 |
| seedy pink public bath | 01/23/17 |
| Pearly low-t theatre | 02/27/17 |
| Carmine center dopamine | 03/22/17 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 04/17/17 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 05/08/17 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 06/20/17 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 08/10/17 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 10/15/17 |
| razzle kink-friendly dilemma digit ratio | 10/15/17 |
| Swollen bawdyhouse | 10/15/17 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 11/06/17 |
| underhanded stock car pisswyrm | 11/06/17 |
| crusty halford gas station | 11/08/17 |
| spruce boistinker location | 11/08/17 |
| abnormal karate | 11/13/17 |
| razzle kink-friendly dilemma digit ratio | 12/18/17 |
| nudist doctorate | 12/18/17 |
| razzle kink-friendly dilemma digit ratio | 12/18/17 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 01/30/18 |
| Wine pontificating hospital idea he suggested | 06/01/18 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 07/18/18 |
| razzle kink-friendly dilemma digit ratio | 07/19/18 |
| orange school cafeteria | 09/20/18 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 09/25/18 |
| thriller piazza sneaky criminal | 10/06/18 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 10/06/18 |
| Wine pontificating hospital idea he suggested | 10/25/18 |
| Sick laughsome property | 10/25/18 |
| Cyan Zippy Tank Turdskin | 11/05/18 |
| Wine pontificating hospital idea he suggested | 11/05/18 |
| Carmine center dopamine | 11/05/18 |
| Wine pontificating hospital idea he suggested | 11/05/18 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 01/08/19 |
| scarlet electric furnace filthpig | 02/23/19 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 03/13/19 |
| Cyan Zippy Tank Turdskin | 06/24/19 |
| Gold national factory reset button | 06/24/19 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 11/18/19 |
| Pearly low-t theatre | 02/12/20 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 02/12/20 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 03/24/20 |
| embarrassed to the bone place of business parlour | 03/24/20 |
| pale violent abode mental disorder | 04/04/20 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 04/26/20 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 05/13/20 |
| pale violent abode mental disorder | 06/05/20 |
| magenta therapy | 06/05/20 |
| pale violent abode mental disorder | 09/09/20 |
| Pearly low-t theatre | 09/09/20 |
| Flirting shimmering senate death wish | 09/09/20 |
| onyx fanboi toilet seat | 09/12/20 |
| mentally impaired maniacal principal's office alpha | 09/24/20 |
| Gold national factory reset button | 10/09/20 |
| razzle kink-friendly dilemma digit ratio | 10/10/20 |
| crimson cumskin | 10/22/20 |
| range | 10/22/20 |
| glittery jet-lagged menage | 10/22/20 |
| glittery jet-lagged menage | 10/22/20 |
| canary athletic conference police squad | 03/23/22 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 10/27/20 |
| Carmine center dopamine | 10/27/20 |
| Gold national factory reset button | 10/30/20 |
| razzle kink-friendly dilemma digit ratio | 11/03/20 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 03/22/22 |
| copper | 03/23/22 |
| sapphire nowag | 03/23/22 |
| pozpig | 03/23/22 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 07/25/22 |
| Flirting shimmering senate death wish | 07/25/22 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 10/23/22 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 11/16/22 |
| floppy parlor trump supporter | 04/25/23 |
| Henna bat-shit-crazy theater stage roast beef | 04/25/23 |
| mentally impaired maniacal principal's office alpha | 04/29/23 |
| Insecure stage | 05/28/23 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 02/22/24 |
| mentally impaired maniacal principal's office alpha | 02/23/24 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 05/23/24 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 08/26/24 |
| mentally impaired maniacal principal's office alpha | 09/13/24 |
| Flirting shimmering senate death wish | 09/13/24 |
| mentally impaired maniacal principal's office alpha | 10/18/24 |
| chartreuse point persian | 10/11/24 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 11/06/24 |
| vibrant faggot firefighter boiling water | 03/04/25 |
| vibrant faggot firefighter boiling water | 03/04/25 |
| orange school cafeteria | 03/04/25 |
| chartreuse point persian | 03/04/25 |
| grizzly indecent | 03/04/25 |
| rough-skinned | 03/05/25 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 03/07/25 |
| Confused citrine crotch | 03/07/25 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 03/08/25 |
| mildly autistic pervert | 03/08/25 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 03/08/25 |
| seedy pink public bath | 02/18/26 |
| Bateful hateful resort | 05/15/26 |
| judgmental friendly grandma hairy legs | 05/17/26 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan" December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?" December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem" January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most" January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One" January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem" February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory" February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire" February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why." February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?" February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow" February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination" February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma" February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast" March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever" March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump" April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party" April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?" May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade" May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like" June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention" July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan" August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting" August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story" September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton" September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise" October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority" November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won" November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: boyish hideous orchestra pit mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29364653) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32284620) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM Author: Carmine center dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29532817) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM Author: Wine pontificating hospital idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29532846) |
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Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM Author: Wine pontificating hospital idea he suggested another bump (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30631018) |
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Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM Author: vermilion fragrant double fault nursing home 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30144195) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM Author: Learning Disabled Ladyboy School (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32284612) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM Author: Vigorous Deer Antler Business Firm "October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#37090197) |
Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM Author: Flirting shimmering senate death wish (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29351706) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM Author: thriller piazza sneaky criminal 1800000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29351728) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: seedy pink public bath 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29351742) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM Author: walnut indian lodge Fantastic work ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29351744) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM Author: flatulent saffron whorehouse codepig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29384172) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM Author: contagious immigrant FUCK | THIS | KIKE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29351749) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM Author: Ungodly shrine internal respiration Poasting in a historic thread. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29351753) |
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Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: Bespoke disgusting water buffalo antidepressant drug Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM Author: Rambunctious Swashbuckling Trailer Park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29359932) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM Author: electric clown market Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29364985) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: Racy Hilarious Idiot Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29392387) |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM Author: carnelian concupiscible field cuck Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.
Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Mustard provocative boltzmann (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31854764) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29359811) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM Author: Vengeful goyim (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29359818) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM Author: Slap-happy headpube stead 180 million (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29359849) |
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Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM Author: Rambunctious Swashbuckling Trailer Park November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29359926) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Soul-stirring dysfunction wagecucks (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29364617) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM Author: Cyan Zippy Tank Turdskin Don't edit loser (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29677834) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM Author: Trip flickering chapel national security agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31866880) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29364607) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM Author: Henna bat-shit-crazy theater stage roast beef (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29364621) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: tan harsh cruise ship lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29364630) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM Author: Hyperventilating wrinkle March 9
THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN
March 10
THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN
March 11
THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP
March 12
THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE
March 13
THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS
March 14
THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON
March 18
BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL
He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers
March 19
BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS
March 20
NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS
March 21
THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU
March 22
HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM Author: infuriating spectacular legal warrant (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29384155) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM Author: 180 native indirect expression 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29429271) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM Author: Motley giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29364847) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM Author: disturbing mind-boggling international law enforcement agency lol, 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29364873) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: curious chad step-uncle's house (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29364887) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM Author: vibrant faggot firefighter boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29364890) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM Author: Adulterous associate Well done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29364896) |
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Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM Author: aphrodisiac nubile roommate Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29364933) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM Author: Ungodly shrine internal respiration OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29383835) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM Author: Ungodly shrine internal respiration And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw." |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM Author: rebellious razzle-dazzle space 190 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29383898) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM Author: jade frisky hall fuck u for making me laugh (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29383961) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM Author: Misanthropic mood genital piercing I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29384107) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM Author: buck-toothed passionate set 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29384183) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM Author: Coiffed mad cow disease February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."
February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"
180 |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM Author: diverse meetinghouse You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29384207) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10% http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/ |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29384231) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29384237) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29384254) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29384262) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: dashing casino keepsake machete (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29525662) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM Author: Cyan Zippy Tank Turdskin Can't wait to bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29677869) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Ebony outnumbered base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32165246) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM Author: titillating affirmative action (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30504262) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM Author: Talented useless stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31172544) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31846270) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: razzle kink-friendly dilemma digit ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31846325) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM Author: Brass marvelous university Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/ |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: glittery jet-lagged menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#41167037) |
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Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM Author: Charismatic State This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29384232) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM Author: big fishy volcanic crater 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29392396) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM Author: Ivory effete cuckoldry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29392414) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM Author: buff awkward house ape Incredible (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29392427) |
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Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/ |
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Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM Author: Bateful hateful resort Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/ |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM Author: Beady-eyed lay (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29411300) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Carmine center dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29532836) |
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Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM Author: Comical puce dingle berry gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29411342) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort "Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/ |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM Author: 180 native indirect expression 1 fuckin' 80 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29429241) |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort "micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/ |
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Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.
But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/ |
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Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM Author: carnelian concupiscible field cuck flawless OP. uninflated 180. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29519032) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter ty for all the updates itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29525598) |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM Author: Cyan Zippy Tank Turdskin Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29677890) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM Author: Beady-eyed lay From Silver's Twitter:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him. |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM Author: Bearded Cuckold Skinny Woman 1800000000000 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29531444) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: Chest-beating Startling Garrison Famous Landscape Painting (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29531475) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM Author: tantric histrionic french chef degenerate An historic poast (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29531481) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM Author: Cracking old irish cottage crackhouse 180 trillion (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29531500) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM Author: tantric histrionic french chef degenerate I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys
http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6 |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM Author: Carmine center dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29532843) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM Author: tantric histrionic french chef degenerate Bump to make sure my friends saw this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29535993) |
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Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM Author: Cracking old irish cottage crackhouse No bias there right? What a shitbird. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29531557) |
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Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM Author: Talented useless stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29532829) |
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Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM Author: 180 native indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29546163) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort “HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.
Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.
These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM Author: nudist doctorate 180 if not copy paste (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29551314) |
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Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM Author: 180 native indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29554010) |
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Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM Author: Beady-eyed lay http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29559692) |
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Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM Author: 180 native indirect expression (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29566112) |
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Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM Author: Bateful hateful resort http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29622950) |
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Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/ |
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Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM Author: Beady-eyed lay looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:
His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there. There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states. Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1 But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.
I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.
But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:
The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated. Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better. Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president. An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.) You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.
Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?
I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.
Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.
Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.
But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:
Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand. Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race. If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire. Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3 So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.
These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.
Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him. |
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Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#29677719) |
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Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM Author: Bateful hateful resort It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/ |
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Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM Author: Bateful hateful resort "What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like" "Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort "Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM Author: Up-to-no-good Son Of Senegal Address lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30160689) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM Author: Up-to-no-good Son Of Senegal Address "One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/ |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30161654) |
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Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30163086) |
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Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30183235) |
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Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort "Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/ |
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM Author: Up-to-no-good Son Of Senegal Address interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:
http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686
Articles by Karl Rove
Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.
Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.
The Not-Trump GOP Rises April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.
The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.
An Ugly General Election Takes Shape March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.
Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.
Don’t Coddle Donald Trump March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.
A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.
How Trump Can Raise His Game March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.
A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.
The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.
He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.
A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.
Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’
The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.
There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate. James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’
Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.
There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims
GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.
The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.
How Trump Blew an Easy Win February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.
He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.
Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.
The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?
Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.
Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.
The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.
At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.
My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.
Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.
Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.
Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.
He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.
The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.
A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.
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Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM Author: hairraiser sickened den (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30279158) |
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Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30307876) |
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Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM Author: appetizing quadroon (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30310760) |
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Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30346848) |
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Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30353572) |
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Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM Author: Massive theater becky Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines JUN 16, 2015
Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart
JUL 16, 2015
Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously
JUL 29, 2015
Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates
AUG 7, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News
AUG 7, 2015
Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.
AUG 11, 2015
Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination
AUG 14, 2015
Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record
AUG 31, 2015
A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump
SEP 2, 2015
Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’
SEP 8, 2015
If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too
SEP 17, 2015
We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate
SEP 24, 2015
Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?
OCT 20, 2015
Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible
OCT 26, 2015
Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?
NOV 4, 2015
The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump
NOV 23, 2015
Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls
DEC 1, 2015
The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate
DEC 2, 2015
Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!
DEC 4, 2015
Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention
DEC 15, 2015
Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?
DEC 17, 2015
Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing
JAN 18, 2016
Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters
JAN 19, 2016
Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz
JAN 19, 2016
Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0
JAN 21, 2016
One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump
JAN 26, 2016
Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?
JAN 27, 2016
Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate
JAN 31, 2016
Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep
FEB 2, 2016
Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan
FEB 3, 2016
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
FEB 4, 2016
Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild
FEB 5, 2016
Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google
FEB 9, 2016
Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire
FEB 10, 2016
John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump
FEB 17, 2016
Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?
FEB 18, 2016
The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump
FEB 21, 2016
Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War
FEB 22, 2016
Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith
FEB 23, 2016
Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout
FEB 24, 2016
Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz
FEB 24, 2016
Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump
FEB 26, 2016
Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump
MAR 1, 2016
Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump
MAR 2, 2016
Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?
MAR 2, 2016
Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination
MAR 3, 2016
Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices
MAR 4, 2016
Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination
MAR 7, 2016
Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules
MAR 7, 2016
Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump
MAR 8, 2016
Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?
MAR 10, 2016
Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump
MAR 11, 2016
Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable
MAR 15, 2016
Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late
MAR 16, 2016
It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates
MAR 16, 2016
Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates
MAR 21, 2016
Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?
MAR 22, 2016
The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates
MAR 23, 2016
Why Donald Trump?
MAR 23, 2016
How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump
MAR 25, 2016
Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November
MAR 25, 2016
What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like
MAR 29, 2016
Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan
MAR 29, 2016
One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women
MAR 30, 2016
How Trump Hacked The Media
MAR 31, 2016
Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump
APR 1, 2016
It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention
APR 5, 2016
The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump
APR 7, 2016
Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote
APR 8, 2016
Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling
APR 11, 2016
Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era
APR 11, 2016
Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado
APR 11, 2016
Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?
APR 14, 2016
Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him
APR 18, 2016
New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates
APR 23, 2016
Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working
APR 25, 2016
Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast
APR 25, 2016
Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?
APR 27, 2016
It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose* |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM Author: Massive theater becky (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31825048) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30392947) |
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Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM Author: razzle kink-friendly dilemma digit ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30393360) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/ |
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Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM Author: lilac yarmulke holy shit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30398720) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30405223) |
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Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM Author: nudist doctorate 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30405346) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM Author: Bateful hateful resort Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760 |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM Author: vibrant faggot firefighter boiling water Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30412976) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30412844) |
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Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM Author: Multi-colored church Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30412994) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: Henna bat-shit-crazy theater stage roast beef This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30504267) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30504223) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM Author: titillating affirmative action In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30504268) |
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Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM Author: Henna bat-shit-crazy theater stage roast beef cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30504274) |
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Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30583536) |
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Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30746085) |
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Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.
FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office. “Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”
Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.
Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.
“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”
“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.
Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.
“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931 |
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Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM Author: Bateful hateful resort http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30924907) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM Author: pale violent abode mental disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30933127) |
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Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM Author: Talented useless stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30933205) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30956384) |
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Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM Author: nudist doctorate 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30956397) |
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Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM Author: Bateful hateful resort http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30987656) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30999290) |
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Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM Author: Anal coffee pot (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#30999301) |
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Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM Author: overrated area background story Wow jesua (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31006876) |
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Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31020363) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM Author: arousing cerise legend office Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31022942) |
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Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM Author: Up-to-no-good Son Of Senegal Address amazing how accurate this is (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31023351) |
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Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter Wish I could profit off this gift. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31043518) |
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Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31113817) |
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Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/ Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states. |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984" NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like" "That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/ |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM Author: nudist doctorate holy shit did u edit (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31172565) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31172569) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Lascivious Gunner LOL if true. I believe you, bro. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31172627) |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why." NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240 |
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Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM Author: nudist doctorate 180 i want 2 believe |
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Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM Author: nudist doctorate lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31345879) |
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Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/ |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM Author: Up-to-no-good Son Of Senegal Address ho lee fuk this is getting good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31404088) |
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Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM Author: Motley giraffe Wow. Nailed July, August and early September (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31404101) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: excitant soggy puppy September 15, 2016
"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"
RUH ROH LIBS |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM Author: Sick laughsome property September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"
Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:
Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless
http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/ |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM Author: Wine pontificating hospital idea he suggested god this is good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31413930) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM Author: Pearly low-t theatre XO never not on point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31413938) |
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Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM Author: orange school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31413954) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM Author: Geriatric lavender kitchen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31443744) |
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Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM Author: Geriatric lavender kitchen partner The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31443779) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: nudist doctorate let's not cross the swords (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31503555) |
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Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31482152) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM Author: Bateful hateful resort http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31503552) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: nudist doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31503554) |
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Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM Author: Ungodly shrine internal respiration This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31503556) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM Author: heady cordovan hell ceo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31592208) |
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Date: July 29th, 2024 7:46 PM Author: Insecure stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#47906632) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM Author: Up-to-no-good Son Of Senegal Address http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/
vs
September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom" |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM Author: Motley giraffe (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31511665) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM Author: nudist doctorate 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31511673) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM Author: irradiated rehab brethren This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31512070) |
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Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM Author: hairraiser sickened den (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31513385) |
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Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM Author: Odious Messiness Station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31592192) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: nudist doctorate hey, this weekend wasnt in the script (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31594952) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM Author: Vivacious transparent incel Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31594953) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: nudist doctorate doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31594954) |
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Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM Author: Sable goal in life scourge upon the earth half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31594956) |
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Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM Author: Up-to-no-good Son Of Senegal Address nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:
It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.
These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/
meanwhile:
Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate
As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/
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Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM Author: arousing cerise legend office close enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31763265) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM Author: Talented useless stage Almost there (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31772625) |
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Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM Author: Pearly low-t theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31777531) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM Author: Abusive spot voyeur (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31782180) |
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Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM Author: buck-toothed passionate set (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31786832) |
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Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM Author: Up-to-no-good Son Of Senegal Address prob the last time we can bump this (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31825019) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: cream aggressive telephone You say that but..... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31833310) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM Author: Up-to-no-good Son Of Senegal Address true, the shitlibs can bump all they like (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31833315) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter ty for your sympathy bump. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31839758) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM Author: Up-to-no-good Son Of Senegal Address ho lee fuk (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31844114) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM Author: Razzmatazz Corner Personal Credit Line (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31842891) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM Author: Indigo jewess Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump
LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM Author: self-centered stirring site depressive (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31843660) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM Author: Geriatric lavender kitchen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31844292) |
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Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31844674) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM Author: drab yapping weed whacker locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31846281) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM Author: excitant soggy puppy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31846326) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM Author: adventurous stag film liquid oxygen (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31846448) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31848552) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM Author: Pearly low-t theatre GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31848608) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM Author: drab yapping weed whacker locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31848693) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM Author: arousing cerise legend office it really deserves national attention (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31848755) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM Author: vibrant faggot firefighter boiling water (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31848775) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM Author: range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32044462) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Trip flickering chapel national security agency (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32076291) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Ebony outnumbered base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32165256) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: chartreuse point persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#48187313) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM Author: Newt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31848725) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM Author: Peach Tanning Salon Round Eye Historic. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31849301) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM Author: high-end ticket booth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31849447) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM Author: metal pit 180
The anti-Rudolph. |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM Author: range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31851790) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM Author: Talented useless stage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31852918) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31854576) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM Author: Henna bat-shit-crazy theater stage roast beef this cannot be bumped enough. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31854584) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM Author: nudist doctorate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31855383) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM Author: orchid hominid (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31855482) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31863076) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: translucent dog poop sanctuary (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31863082) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM Author: corn cake trust fund (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31863093) |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame." http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/ |
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Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM Author: walnut indian lodge you're fucking nostradamus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31863503) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM Author: Comical puce dingle berry gaping (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31866924) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM Author: supple mewling forum community account Here we go... (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31868448) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM Author: Wine pontificating hospital idea he suggested bumped (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31866864) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM Author: mint multi-billionaire (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31867005) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months" http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM Author: Up-to-no-good Son Of Senegal Address ROFL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31868235) |
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Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM Author: Galvanic Locale (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31868543) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM Author: Geriatric lavender kitchen partner (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31907692) |
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Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM Author: flesh brunch They're all heads attached to the same (((monster))) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31907697) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM Author: Domesticated balding temple Extraordinary prescience itt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32055646) |
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Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM Author: Ebony outnumbered base (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32165261) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:48 PM Author: chartreuse point persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#48187317) |
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Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#31989410) |
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Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM Author: apoplectic jet heaven party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32044435) |
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Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM Author: Sable goal in life scourge upon the earth GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32055631) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM Author: Yellow kitty cat https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32076268) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM Author: Wine pontificating hospital idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32076292) |
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Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM Author: apoplectic jet heaven party of the first part (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32076345) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32284600) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM Author: hyperactive church building pocket flask October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think" http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/
OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM
Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32284631) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: hyperactive church building pocket flask ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump
also a classic |
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Date: March 3rd, 2020 9:23 AM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#39686962) |
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Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM Author: Wine pontificating hospital idea he suggested truly magnificent (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32284649) |
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Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM Author: razzle kink-friendly dilemma digit ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32389095) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM Author: hyperactive church building pocket flask https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32412323) |
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Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32416346) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM Author: hyperactive church building pocket flask http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/ http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/ |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: Odious Messiness Station TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32441222) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM Author: hyperactive church building pocket flask It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32441238) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM Author: White milk I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).
What are those assholes at Princeton up to? |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM Author: Odious Messiness Station it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping
it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)
it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM Author: hyperactive church building pocket flask The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32441319) |
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Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM Author: hyperactive church building pocket flask https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32458110) |
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Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM Author: hyperactive church building pocket flask https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32466804) |
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Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM Author: hyperactive church building pocket flask https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32560776) |
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Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM Author: hyperactive church building pocket flask https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32612572) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM Author: hyperactive church building pocket flask https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32714310) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM Author: hyperactive church building pocket flask https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#33221553) |
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Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#33222883) |
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Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM Author: hyperactive church building pocket flask https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#34257967) |
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Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM Author: seedy pink public bath this seriously needs mainstream coverage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32441221) |
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Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM Author: Pearly low-t theatre One of the greatest things made on this great bort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32714399) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM Author: Carmine center dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#32891711) |
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Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#33097887) |
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Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#33256991) |
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Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#33605191) |
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Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/ |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#34449074) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM Author: razzle kink-friendly dilemma digit ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#34449102) |
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Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM Author: Swollen bawdyhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#34449138) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#34615930) |
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Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM Author: underhanded stock car pisswyrm credit where it's massively due (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#34615959) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM Author: crusty halford gas station (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#34636123) |
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Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM Author: spruce boistinker location (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#34636459) |
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Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM Author: abnormal karate (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#34673088) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM Author: razzle kink-friendly dilemma digit ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#34948560) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM Author: nudist doctorate Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#34948572) |
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Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM Author: razzle kink-friendly dilemma digit ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#34950581) |
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Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#35278621) |
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Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM Author: Wine pontificating hospital idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#36168381) |
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Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM Author: Bateful hateful resort https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#36451135) |
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Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM Author: razzle kink-friendly dilemma digit ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#36458802) |
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Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM Author: orange school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#36847087) |
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Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/ SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" " |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM Author: thriller piazza sneaky criminal It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#36973680) |
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Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter lol 180 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#36973690) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM Author: Wine pontificating hospital idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#37090167) |
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Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM Author: Sick laughsome property Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#37090191) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM Author: Cyan Zippy Tank Turdskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#37161974) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM Author: Wine pontificating hospital idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#37161955) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM Author: Carmine center dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#37162045) |
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Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM Author: Wine pontificating hospital idea he suggested (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#37167335) |
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Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#37553376) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM Author: scarlet electric furnace filthpig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#37833345) |
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Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170 Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls." https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726
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Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM Author: Cyan Zippy Tank Turdskin There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#38431500) |
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Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM Author: Gold national factory reset button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#38431431) |
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Date: November 18th, 2019 3:05 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#39135638) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 12:14 PM Author: Pearly low-t theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#39583415) |
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Date: February 12th, 2020 1:03 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#39583624) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:12 AM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#39849854) |
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Date: March 24th, 2020 10:16 AM Author: embarrassed to the bone place of business parlour (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#39849877) |
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Date: April 4th, 2020 12:07 PM Author: pale violent abode mental disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#39938878) |
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Date: April 26th, 2020 4:40 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#40097972) |
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Date: May 13th, 2020 6:37 AM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/two-special-elections-on-tuesday-could-hint-at-another-blue-wave-in-2020/amp/ In case you don't get the joke, the Republican in Wisconsin won by 14, & the Republican in California is up 10 with most ballots in for a seat Dems have held since 1998. |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 2:05 PM Author: pale violent abode mental disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#40354730) |
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Date: June 5th, 2020 3:46 PM Author: magenta therapy (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#40355911) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:46 PM Author: pale violent abode mental disorder (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#40896459) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:56 PM Author: Pearly low-t theatre (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#40896523) |
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Date: September 9th, 2020 11:57 PM Author: Flirting shimmering senate death wish Lmao never forget (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#40896526) |
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Date: September 12th, 2020 1:55 PM Author: onyx fanboi toilet seat (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#40908695) |
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Date: September 24th, 2020 9:25 AM Author: mentally impaired maniacal principal's office alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#40977795) |
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Date: October 9th, 2020 11:09 AM Author: Gold national factory reset button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#41079968) |
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Date: October 10th, 2020 9:10 PM Author: razzle kink-friendly dilemma digit ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#41088157) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:24 PM Author: crimson cumskin (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#41166967) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:27 PM Author: range (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#41166990) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:34 PM Author: glittery jet-lagged menage (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#41167039) |
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Date: October 22nd, 2020 7:37 PM Author: glittery jet-lagged menage https://imgur.com/a/mXMUHui (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#41167053) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:57 AM Author: canary athletic conference police squad (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#44203011) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 5:47 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#41200021) |
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Date: October 27th, 2020 11:29 PM Author: Carmine center dopamine (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#41202581) |
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Date: October 30th, 2020 2:57 PM Author: Gold national factory reset button (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#41222868) |
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Date: November 3rd, 2020 9:51 PM Author: razzle kink-friendly dilemma digit ratio (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#41261120) |
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Date: March 22nd, 2022 11:29 AM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#44196611) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:51 AM Author: copper (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#44202968) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:54 AM Author: sapphire nowag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#44202984) |
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Date: March 23rd, 2022 11:58 AM Author: pozpig 180 and prescient (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#44203017) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#44911871) |
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Date: July 25th, 2022 3:45 PM Author: Flirting shimmering senate death wish A classic (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#44911874) |
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Date: October 23rd, 2022 4:13 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#45378008) |
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Date: November 16th, 2022 6:19 AM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter Why DeSantis Is a Major Threat to Trump's Reelection
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-desantis-is-a-major-threat-to-trumps-reelection/ |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:31 PM Author: floppy parlor trump supporter https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1650899579234140168 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#46237455) |
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Date: April 25th, 2023 1:33 PM Author: Henna bat-shit-crazy theater stage roast beef why was disney employing this guy anyways (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#46237460) |
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Date: April 29th, 2023 7:52 PM Author: mentally impaired maniacal principal's office alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#46252623) |
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Date: May 28th, 2023 3:10 PM Author: Insecure stage FOCK!
This still hurts to read |
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Date: February 22nd, 2024 4:54 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#47428670) |
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Date: February 23rd, 2024 4:00 AM Author: mentally impaired maniacal principal's office alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#47430198) |
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Date: May 23rd, 2024 4:51 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/is-the-biden-campaign-running-on-false-hope As FiveThirtyEight makes clear in their piece, “While the polls in a few closely watched races—like Arizona’s governorship and Pennsylvania’s Senate seat—were biased toward Republicans, the polls overall still had a bit of a bias toward Democrats. That’s because generic-ballot polls, the most common type of poll last cycle, had a weighted-average bias of D+1.9, and polls of several less closely watched races, like the governorships in Ohio and Florida, also skewed toward Democrats.”
I’m ending the interview. I’m ending the interview because what you’re doing is ridiculous.
Wait, wait—why?
Because I have definitive proof that what you’re saying is not true. And I don’t care. I know what FiveThirtyEight wrote. I live this every day. And so, the point is what you’re saying is wrong. I am on record saying that what FiveThirtyEight has written is incorrect, and I’ve given you definitive proof otherwise. So if you want to keep coming back at this, do it. But this has become one of the most ridiculous interviews that I’ve ever done my entire professional career. |
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Date: August 26th, 2024 3:52 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#48010724) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:24 PM Author: mentally impaired maniacal principal's office alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#48087201) |
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Date: September 13th, 2024 11:32 PM Author: Flirting shimmering senate death wish One of the GOAT threads of all time (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#48087224) |
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Date: October 18th, 2024 1:46 PM Author: mentally impaired maniacal principal's office alpha (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#48211967) |
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Date: October 11th, 2024 12:45 PM Author: chartreuse point persian (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#48187302) |
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Date: November 6th, 2024 5:16 AM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#48296972) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:30 PM Author: vibrant faggot firefighter boiling water 538 is being shut down. This post is now complete. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#48715841) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:32 PM Author: vibrant faggot firefighter boiling water https://x.com/ericldaugh/status/1897135211810545835?s=46 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#48715847) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:33 PM Author: orange school cafeteria Lol actually his model was right at almost every turn
*facts cum* |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:37 PM Author: chartreuse point persian The post isn't fully complete until Nate Silver passes peacefully away from full blown AIDS (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#48715863) |
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Date: March 4th, 2025 11:41 PM Author: grizzly indecent He has to be sucking cock at the port authority for bus fare to complete the circle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#48715869) |
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Date: March 5th, 2025 8:13 AM Author: rough-skinned (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#48716330) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:34 AM Author: Bateful hateful resort (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#48724299) |
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Date: March 7th, 2025 11:36 AM Author: Confused citrine crotch 538 is now 404 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#48724306) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 5:10 AM Author: Bateful hateful resort "How Trump Killed 538" https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/03/07/fivethirtyeight-nate-silver-election-polls/ |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 7:12 AM Author: mildly autistic pervert Was just thinking about this poast the other day and how much went into maeking it. Truly a work of art. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#48727216) |
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Date: March 8th, 2025 12:42 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort Holy shit it's all gone, they beleted everything. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#48727802) |
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Date: February 18th, 2026 11:20 PM Author: seedy pink public bath (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2...id.#49679495) |
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Date: May 15th, 2026 12:08 PM Author: Bateful hateful resort ABC News has now taken all FiveThirtyEight articles completely offline. They now redirect to abcnews dot com/politics. A needless erasure of thousands of pages of knowledge. https://x.com/baseballot/status/2055309076209492208 |
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Date: May 17th, 2026 11:01 AM Author: judgmental friendly grandma hairy legs i sense that there is a bit of a movement to shame ABC into providing access again.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/16/business/media/fivethirtyeight-abc-removed.html |