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AI progress has plateaued at GPT-4 level
| cock of michael obama | 11/14/24 |
| Mig | 11/14/24 |
| .,.,,.,..,,..,..,..,....,,...,. | 11/14/24 |
| but at what cost | 11/14/24 |
| cowstack | 11/14/24 |
| Mig | 11/14/24 |
| .,.,,.,..,,..,..,..,....,,...,. | 11/14/24 |
| cowstack | 11/14/24 |
| So we looked at the data | 11/14/24 |
| magadood | 11/14/24 |
| magadood | 11/14/24 |
| As far as they will go but even farther | 11/14/24 |
| alpha dood | 11/14/24 |
Poast new message in this thread
Date: November 14th, 2024 11:10 AM Author: cock of michael obama https://www.theintrinsicperspective.com/p/ai-progress-has-plateaued-at-gpt (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5634079&forum_id=2Reputation#48336411) |
Date: November 14th, 2024 11:11 AM Author: Mig Good this shit is too good (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5634079&forum_id=2Reputation#48336414) |
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Date: November 14th, 2024 11:12 AM Author: .,.,,.,..,,..,..,..,....,,...,. I hoap so but for how long? There's trillion$ invested in AI destroying humanity (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5634079&forum_id=2Reputation#48336420) |
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Date: November 14th, 2024 11:15 AM Author: but at what cost No it hasn't. It just went deep black like quantum computing because it's too dangerous for normies to possess (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5634079&forum_id=2Reputation#48336429) |
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Date: November 14th, 2024 11:15 AM Author: cowstack (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5634079&forum_id=2Reputation#48336432) |
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Date: November 14th, 2024 11:25 AM Author: Mig (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5634079&forum_id=2Reputation#48336475) |
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Date: November 14th, 2024 11:33 AM Author: .,.,,.,..,,..,..,..,....,,...,. tcr (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5634079&forum_id=2Reputation#48336521) |
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Date: November 14th, 2024 11:16 AM Author: cowstack Does the author not realize that GPT is a tiny subset of "AI"? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5634079&forum_id=2Reputation#48336435) |
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Date: November 14th, 2024 11:16 AM Author: So we looked at the data This is talking about pre-training. There are a ton of things that can be done post training, they are not even close to exhausting possibilities in the current paradigm. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5634079&forum_id=2Reputation#48336436) |
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Date: November 14th, 2024 11:33 AM Author: magadood Scaffolding is promising, but o1 wasn’t a universal improvement in model capabilities. Language abilities are essentially the same. I wouldn’t bet on it as a solution.
There are a few possibilities : transformers are inherently limited (lack of recurrency is an obvious problem), standard back propagation is insufficient or the pre training objective is not ideal. All of them are reasonable. They could replace all of these hand coded components with learnable/evolvable functions, so I wouldn’t bet on AI progress stalling. |
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Date: November 14th, 2024 11:21 AM Author: magadood this has appeared likely for a while since all the models have been clustering around GPT-4 level. I highly doubt synthetic data is the solution. They are trying to feed the data hunger of transformers by generating more of it. They should be trying to deal with the poor generalization properties of transformers directly, which is why they need so much data in the first place. Using RL to generate token chains is a very expensive way to go and only seems to improve some abilities. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5634079&forum_id=2Reputation#48336461) |
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Date: November 14th, 2024 11:23 AM Author: As far as they will go but even farther (🧐) Altman and people within OpenAI (even those who left recently) have been fighting this narrative hard, although of course we have no fucking idea whether they're just blowing hot air or not
What does seem clear though is there is a ton more work to get to ASI, which will be the true turning point when the world may descend into total chaos communism. Turns out it's pretty hard to turn LLMs into meaningful independent acting agents, scaling doesn't magically create superhuman intelligence like all the hockey sticks predicted (shocker) |
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Date: November 14th, 2024 1:21 PM Author: alpha dood Scaling likely does but they aren’t scaling the right thing. The idea that searching over Turing machines (using a simplicity bias) on enormous quantities of data produces increasingly general intelligence is likely. even if you buy into system 2/system 1 model of cognition, it’s kind of fanciful to imagine that a search process using a million GPUs can’t find a Turing machine that implements slow reasoning. Maybe not this year, maybe not next year, but I don’t see how it could be 20 years away (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5634079&forum_id=2Reputation#48337224) |