5-10 years... "biglawyers" = lamplighters out of work
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Date: July 18th, 2025 6:33 AM Author: Thriller lay
What happens next though?
Clearly we still have lawyers and law firms, but perhaps the firm headcount drops to 10% the current headcount, and AI/software picks up the slack.
In that world, is the firm owned by just a handful of partners? Do law firms start to act like lean software companies? When does a U.S. firm IPO?
The counterpoint btw is that we just do a lot more work that was prohibitively expensive before. For example, I probably see 25+ cease and desist letters for every lawsuit, because letters cost $5-10k and lawsuits cost $100k to initiate and $5M+ to litigate through summary judgment. If cost of litigation drops [80%] people may file many more lawsuits. There could be an analogous dynamic on the corporate/business side.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5751717&forum_id=2Reputation#49111194) |
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Date: July 18th, 2025 10:33 AM Author: Salmon set dysfunction
It’s pretty crap right now and often in law there’s no objectively correct answer unlike coding or whatever. Here’s a better explanation why law is harder to master for AI than coding.
Coding is governed by strict syntax and deterministic rules. A given input in a programming language will always produce the same output if the code is correct.
• Legal analysis involves ambiguous language, conflicting authorities, policy tradeoffs, and context-sensitive reasoning—skills that require human judgment and real-world understanding.
AI has been trained on massive open-source code repositories like GitHub, with clear labels, documentation, and results. This data is abundant, consistent, and high-quality.
• Legal data is more fragmented:
• Case law is often behind paywalls.
• Court decisions may be long, inconsistent, or involve complex procedural postures.
• Outcomes are not always “correct” or universally agreed upon.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5751717&forum_id=2Reputation#49111495)
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Date: July 19th, 2025 2:45 PM Author: Salmon set dysfunction
Current reality supports the anti-AI argument. AI law products are pretty shit for any complex practice.
No doubt that people who rely on making money through teams of 20 paralegals filling out forms and doing rote tasks will change a lot but automating such repetitive thoughtless tasks is entirely different than writing a compelling brief based on nuanced and complex facts in an uncertain area of law.
It most likely will be similar to how word processing eliminated a lot of support positions.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5751717&forum_id=2Reputation#49114500) |
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