The most prestigious law school admissions discussion board in the world.
|
 |
 
|
Lichtman on CNN refusing to deny that his interpretation of the keys was wrong
Poast new message in this thread
Date: November 9th, 2024 1:01 PM Author: michael doodikoff https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDMF90S7HwU
dude just doesn't get it. |
Date: November 9th, 2024 1:03 PM Author: .,.,...,..,.,.,:,,:,.,.,:::,....,:,..,:.:.,:.::, The other day he said his model didn’t fail, the electorate failed his model. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48315265) |
 |
Date: November 9th, 2024 1:09 PM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, and Ann Selzer said her Iowa polling *caused* the votes to fall Trump's way. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48315287) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 3:53 PM Author: .,.,...,..,.,.,:,,:,.,.,:::,....,:,..,:.:.,:.::, LJL (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48315794) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 1:09 PM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, why does he say the model "failed"? why doesn't he claim that his model is spectacularly good over the decades but no model is perfect?
btw, i think the guy is bullshit. |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 1:16 PM Author: michael doodikoff as posters here and nate silver have pointed out, if you analyze each of the 13 keys correctly, it would have held Trump winning. HIs TDS got in the way, said shit like Kamala had more Charisma than Trump, no scandals in office, etc (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48315301) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 1:19 PM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, intereting, thanks.
every lawyer knows that no list of 13 general factors can be applied with the mathematical precision Lichtman claims for his model. |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 1:20 PM Author: Hysterical bitchmade deepstate faggot Tcr
The more factors in a test, the more wiggle room for biased interpretation |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 1:25 PM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, cr. Lichtman's model is a Breyer-balancing-test gone mad.
for example, how do you weigh the factors? just add them up and 7>6? what if 3 of the seven were close calls and all 6 were clearcut? would it still simply be 7>6?
it's bullshit. but if he'd just back off a bit and say that it's a very useful model for getting a rough feel for things, he'd be right. |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 4:04 PM Author: todd bonzalez all cr. but there’s also nothing that interesting about a system that says “if the economy is bad and there’s international discord and the opponent is really likable then those are generally negative signs for the incumbent.” (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48315836) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 1:20 PM Author: lsd Lol this guy said Kamala was charismatic and Trump isn’t?
This guy is obviously a partisan hack trying to larp as objective above it all “numbers guy” |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 1:26 PM Author: michael doodikoff he said that Trump wasn't the most charismatic person ever I guess? Don't really understand this key, Kamala had negative charisma so that should have been a consideration
. The Keys Prediction
Amidst this turmoil, the Keys remained constant, accounting for the late change in the Democratic ticket. Early in 2024, the incumbent Democrats had definitively lost two keys. They forfeited Mandate Key 1 because of U.S. House losses in 2022 and Incumbent Charisma Key 12. Biden’s withdrawal and the nomination of a younger candidate (age 59 at the time rather than 81) brought fresh enthusiasm to the Democratic campaign. Still, Harris had failed in her bid for the Democrat’s 2020 presidential nomination, was largely invisible as a vice president, and has only recently become the 2024 nominee. Thus, she fails to secure Key 12.
Trump’s legal troubles did not impact this tally of two negative keys. As in 2016, he did not meet the criteria for turning Challenger Charisma Key 13 against the incumbent party. Biden’s withdrawal cost his party Incumbency Key 3. However, by uniting Democrats around Vice President Harris’s candidacy, he avoided the loss of Contest Key 2, leaving Democrats with a three-key rather than a four-key deficit. In addition, the Democrats lost Foreign/Military Failure Key 10 because of the Middle East humanitarian catastrophe with no good end in sight. The final tally is that the Democrats lost four and secured nine keys. The model would predict the defeat of Harris’s incumbent Democrats only if they held seven or fewer keys, that is, a six-key or larger deficit. With the Democrats holding a two-key cushion, the Keys model predicts Harris will become America’s first woman president and its first president of mixed African and Asian descent.
The following nine keys line up in favor of the incumbent Democrats.
Contest Key 2: The Democrats have united in near unanimity behind Harris.
Third-Party Key 4: In recognition of his fading support, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspended his campaign. His endorsement of Donald Trump does not impact this key.
Short-Term Economy Key 5: It is too late for a recession to take hold of the economy before the election. The National Bureau of Economic Research, which provides the most reliable assessment of recessions, typically takes a few months to establish that the economy has fallen into a recession .
Long-Term Economy Key 6: Real per-capita growth during the Biden term far exceeds the average of the previous two presidential terms.
Policy Change Key 7: Biden has fundamentally changed the policies of the Trump administration in areas such as the environment and climate change, infrastructure, immigration, taxes, and women’s and civil rights.
Social Unrest Key 8: Despite sporadic demonstrations, social unrest has not risen to the level needed to forfeit this key: massive, unresolved unrest that threatens the stability of society as in the 1960s and early 1970s.
Scandal Key 9: Republicans in Congress have tried and failed to pin a scandal on President Biden. His son Hunter’s crimes do not count as scandal, which to do so must implicate the president himself and generate bipartisan recognition of wrongdoing.
Foreign/Military Success Key 11: President Biden and Biden alone forged the coalition of the West that kept Putin from conquering Ukraine and then undermining America’s national security by threatening its NATO allies. Biden’s initiatives will go down in history as an extraordinary presidential achievement.
Challenger Charisma Key 13: As explained, Trump does not fit the criteria of a once-in-a-generation, broadly appealing, transformational candidate like Franklin D. Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan.
However, even if subsequent developments in Ukraine most improbably flipped both the Foreign/Military keys against the White House party, the deficit would be five keys, one short of the six negative keys needed to predict the incumbent party’s defeat. Thus, despite polls showing an uncertain election, the Keys’ prediction of Harris’s victory would not change. |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 1:26 PM Author: michael doodikoff Critics frequently challenge Charisma/National Hero Keys 12 and 13 for their allegedly subjective application. However, as defined within the system, a candidate must have provided critical leadership in war to be considered a national hero, as exemplified by Ulysses S. Grant and Dwight D. Eisenhower. Candidates like George McGovern or John McCain, who performed heroically in war but played no leadership role, do not qualify. Similarly, a candidate only earns either charisma key by qualifying as a once-in-a-generation, across-the-board appealing candidate. Only a select few leaders have met these criteria. Among presidents since 1900, those tabbed as meeting the requirements of the charisma indicator include Theodore Roosevelt, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Dwight D. Eisenhower, John F. Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, and Barack Obama—all of whom won election to a second term, except for Kennedy, who died in office. In contrast, five of nine presidents since 1900 who lost Charisma Key 12 failed to win a second term: William Howard Taft, Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter, George H. W. Bush, and Donald Trump.
Despite much criticism of how I turned this key, Donald Trump does not qualify as a broadly inspirational candidate. Although a practiced showman, Trump appeals only to a narrow base. His presidential approval rating in the Gallup Poll averaged 41%, putting him at the bottom of all past presidents . In two elections, Trump lost the people’s vote by an average of 3% and a combined 10 million votes . According to 538’s polling average for mid-October 2024, only 43% of Americans had a favorable opinion of Trump after his nearly a decade as a candidate and president . |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 1:18 PM Author: borders (retired) Why doesn’t this guy take a break jfc (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48315307) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 1:19 PM Author: Hysterical bitchmade deepstate faggot Cant stop wont stop (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48315311) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 1:30 PM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, so i just spent more time looking at this clown than i should have.
he treats his "keys" like golfers treat holes in match play, right? you won it or i won it. there's no ties. there's not "both sides have some of this key" or "each side is weak on this key." and each key, no matter how close the call, gets the exact same weighting. keys that swing strongly to one side or the other get the same weighting as keys that are close calls.
it's like match play in golf for 13 holes. reach "1 up" and you are the winner!
it's so fucking absurd to pretend that it's an objective process. |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 1:37 PM Author: michael doodikoff its "objective" to the extent that he says it is, for each key. lmao (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48315369) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 1:40 PM Author: borders (retired) Political science writ large is retarded and should be banned. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48315382) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 3:56 PM Author: gibberish (?) It's close to an oxymoron (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48315806) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 1:43 PM Author: cowstack TITCR-- the more I learned about this guy and his vaunted "method" the more I'm astonished that someone this retarded was universally regarded as a "NOSTRADAMUS" of politics (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48315394) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 4:08 PM Author: todd bonzalez he’s gone 1/3 in close contests. he’s literally worse than a coin flip. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48315849) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 1:42 PM Author: Metal Up Your Ass what's your fascination with this guy? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48315390) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 1:45 PM Author: Mig OH MY KEYS! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48315400) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 1:49 PM Author: Ass Sunstein You can't predict shit, YOU ARE SHIT! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48315421) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 2:06 PM Author: BLACKED itt - retards who think they can turn the keys better than the master (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48315470) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 2:14 PM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNnIbFFzpD8 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48315486) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 2:24 PM Author: brentrambo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48315518) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 4:06 PM Author: todd bonzalez well…yeah. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48315839) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 4:08 PM Author: the place where there is no darkness I cannot go back!
I'll handle them.
Handle us? You'll handle us? You know, your predecessors had a lot more respect.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXGE0vuuaDo |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 4:09 PM Author: Candy Ride He is still the Lord of the Keys. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48315855) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 4:13 PM Author: "'''''"'""'''"'"' He knows he can squeeze out a little more grift if he just hangs tight. Same with most pollsters (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48315866) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 4:21 PM Author: ,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.../.,, Everything else except prediction markets should jump off a cliff and commit harikari on the way down
If this idiots keys are worth a damn, he'd monetize that edge in betting marketa instead of telling me for free |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 4:38 PM Author: michael doodikoff He wrote books about the keys. Probably worth a lot of $$$ from libs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48315943) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 10:53 PM Author: stolen pallor The way in which he gets incredibly defensive (even before this election, when he fought against people telling him his keys weren't perfect), is hilarious. You can tell hes way too invested in his "model" to ever acknowledge its limitations. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48317323) |
|
Date: November 9th, 2024 11:31 PM Author: michael doodikoff The funniest part is his absolute refusal to acknowledge that his interpretation might have been off this time around. I saw so many interviews with him prior to the election where he would literally scream at interviewers who questioned him on his interpretation of some things, then the election happens and he is wrong. Who does he blame? The electorate for being irrational and misinformed. The keys are supposed to predict the electorate so this is puzzling to blame them (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630930&forum_id=2Reputation#48317482) |