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Alan Lichtenstein: MY MODEL DID NOT FAIL
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Date: November 8th, 2024 11:05 PM Author: .,.,...,..,.,.,:,,:,.,.,:::,....,:,..,:.:.,:.::, Instead, it was the electorate that failed my model.
https://www.youtube.com/live/WuOkzSI9ySo?si=rdbNfif9Vn_RnbNL |
Date: November 9th, 2024 12:12 AM Author: michael doodikoff That guy is such a fag geez dude (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630637&forum_id=2Reputation#48313797) |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 12:22 AM Author: research boner --the fucking electorate is weak? YOU'RE WEAK (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630637&forum_id=2Reputation#48313826) |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 12:29 AM Author: Zionists for Karlstack If he'd actually applied them correctly they predict a Trump win
6 or more false --> incumbent loss
1 Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. False
2 No primary contest There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Counting this as true because there was never any real primary
3 Incumbent seeking re-election The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. False
4 No third party There is no significant third party or independent campaign. I'll count this as true given RFK dropped out
5 Strong short-term economy The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Let's say this was technically true
6 Strong long-term economy Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. Too lazy to look up so let's say true for sake of argument
7 Major policy change The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. Let's say this is true
8 No social unrest There is no sustained social unrest during the term. I think this is false given consistent crime problems
9 No scandal The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. False, Biden's dementia
10 No foreign or military failure The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. False, see Afghanistan withdrawal and Ukraine
11 Major foreign or military success The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. False
12 Charismatic incumbent The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. I'd say it's false, Kamala isn't charismatic
13 Uncharismatic challenger The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. False, Trump has insane charisma
So I'm counting 8 false, which should predict a clear Trump win |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 11:02 AM Author: michael doodikoff agreed to all except #7 - what major policies did Biden/Harris enact? Am I forgetting something? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630637&forum_id=2Reputation#48314881) |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 11:07 AM Author: cowstack Cr. It's insane how even the "smart" libs completely lack self awareness and cognitive dissonance (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630637&forum_id=2Reputation#48314898) |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 11:12 AM Author: teabaggervance He tries to argue that Trump does not win the charisma key because "he does not appeal to a broad section of the electorate" which is hilarious.
He also claims Dems get the major foreign or military success key but I have never heard him explain what specific success they had
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Date: November 9th, 2024 11:23 AM Author: .....,,,,,...,,,,,..,.,,,,,.,,. Lichtman said true on 9, 11 and 13: https://hdsr.mitpress.mit.edu/pub/kcnosyqm/release/1
Apparently a coup on the sitting president because he is literally senile is not a “scandal.” Also he has a huge blindspot wrt Trump’s appeal.
Also the economy keys seem kind of lacking and don’t really capture anything about inflation. This was the #1 issue for many people based on exit polls |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 12:30 AM Author: gedood persoon Could I be out of touch? No, it's the voters who are wrong (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630637&forum_id=2Reputation#48313845) |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 11:03 AM Author: michael doodikoff I saw a video where he literally blamed the voters for his "keys" not working. blamed the electorate for not being "pragmatic and rational" as part of why his keys didn't work.
also xenophobia |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 11:04 AM Author: "'"'"'"''' What a fag (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630637&forum_id=2Reputation#48314890) |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 11:13 AM Author: Senator Lindsey Graham This is good news for cons. The dems seem to just want to denigrate voters, call them irrational and stupid, etc. good luck winning in 2028. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630637&forum_id=2Reputation#48314914) |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 11:37 AM Author: Senator Lindsey Graham listening to this. he also suggests that there was election fraud, LOL. he's careful to say "I am NOT endorsing this, I am NOT, okay let's just be clear" but follows that with "something very strange happened, i'm just going to say that, and others who understand this better than i do and have explained how it wouldn't be that hard for trump or the russians to steal the election"
this guy might actually be done here now. he should have just said "yikes, i fucked that one up" and gone away but he's arguing jewishly in this video about how he is right, his model is right, people are just stupid or trump cheated, etc. and he's made very clear that he is biased in favor of Dems (not sure if that was known before). not sure how this guy is taken seriously going forward. |
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Date: November 9th, 2024 1:49 PM Author: .....,,,,,...,,,,,..,.,,,,,.,,. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5630637&forum_id=2Reputation#48315420) |