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Guy who predicted Kamala's polling lead here; shes fuct
Poast new message in this thread
Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:13 PM Author: topaz crotch She had tremendous natural advantages I didn't expect her to squander so epically. The Oprah interview was when I knew for sure she was dun. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48123132) |
Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:14 PM Author: Magenta appetizing regret her IQ or her sobriety were never natural advantages (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48123136) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:19 PM Author: topaz crotch You didn't predict shit faggot. I did. That's a fact (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48123152) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:21 PM Author: Magenta appetizing regret jeez man I was just observing on what natural DISadvantages (her low IQ and her drunkenness) have come out recently including in the Oprah interview (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48123161) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:23 PM Author: topaz crotch I know. You have encyclopedic knowledge of the disadvantages. Just like everyone else. Congrats.
You have no idea what advantages she had though. That's why you never predicted her polling surge. You still don't know why that happened. That's why you're weak. That's why you're easy to defeat by anyone who's not as retarded as Kamala. |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:20 PM Author: Translucent wild tattoo feces There were two spikes in polling for her. One when she entered the race, leading to a massive burst in response bias as Super Democrats who finally had hope for the first time in this election cycle flooded the polls. She was polling around 99/1 with Democrats during this time and the best she could pull together with D+3-D+7 samples was a +3% on average. Second spike happened after the debate, but that one deflated much more quickly.
Could she win? Maybe. It would require levels of Democratic turnout not seen since Obama. I have seen zero metrics to suggest that.
The real truth is that the election has probably been decided since January (or June). Political Science Academics Predicted the 2016 election result to within 0.1% up to Five months prior to the election, and polling aggregations 11 months before the 2020 election. From their study:
“It seems that the leads of Biden and Clinton on Jan 31st were highly predictive for the (popular vote) final result in November. Biden won by 4.5 and Clinton won by 2.1.”
On January 1st 2024 the Real Clear Politics Aggregate stood at Trump 46.6% Biden 44.3%. This was of course long before the campaigns commenced, and the economy would have been the driving factor behind Trump’s lead at that point.
If the 2016 analysis which showed June was the deciding month the final June aggregate was Trump 46.8 Biden 44.9% |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:25 PM Author: topaz crotch You didn't predict anything. You're weak. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48123178) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:26 PM Author: Translucent wild tattoo feces It was a blue mirage. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48123182) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:39 PM Author: topaz crotch How come I predicted it but you failed? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48123252) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:50 PM Author: twinkling location foreskin You haven't predicted anything you retarded schizo (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124489) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:54 PM Author: topaz crotch http://xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=1980647&forum_id=2#20968962 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124499) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 8:00 PM Author: Buff Vibrant Den lol (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124859) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:31 PM Author: hideous coffee pot party of the first part "On January 1st 2024 the Real Clear Politics Aggregate stood at Trump 46.6% Biden 44.3%. This was of course long before the campaigns commenced, and the economy would have been the driving factor behind Trump’s lead at that point."
You're predicting a popular vote win for trump? |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:33 PM Author: Translucent wild tattoo feces We'll see. Definitely possible. I will predict that if he loses it, it will be by an even smaller margin than the 3 million vote gap between him and Hillary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48123218) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:40 PM Author: topaz crotch He's terrified to predict anything. No self confidence. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48123258) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:41 PM Author: Translucent wild tattoo feces Fuck it. I'll put myself on the line. I predict he'll win the popular vote. Happy? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48123266) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:48 PM Author: Diverse lavender casino boistinker you make a bunch of conflicting and vague predictions constantly and then declare you were "right" when a few of them turn out to be somewhat true, ignoring all the ones that didn't. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48123279) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:49 PM Author: Translucent wild tattoo feces But don't we all? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48123285) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:50 PM Author: topaz crotch Go suck Bibi's cock with MASE (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48123289) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:53 PM Author: Bearded becky roast beef "would require levels of Democratic turnout not seen since Obama" You mean BIDEN. He got 81 million votes and is the most popular POTUS of all time |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 4:38 PM Author: Kink-friendly Fighting Reading Party "It would require levels of Democratic turnout not seen since Obama. I have seen zero metrics to suggest that."
You mean levels of turnout not seen since Biden right? Everyone knows Biden got significantly higher turnout than obama. Easy to see why given what a strong candidate biden was at the time (unlike now after that shocking debate performance where Truth was finally laid bare to the electorate).
Per politifact:
"In 2020, 66.2% of the eligible population voted. In 2008, turnout was 61.6%."
You know its true since its right there in the name. PolitiFACT.
it similarly follows that given Kamala is a much stronger candidate than Biden, who was in a very literal sense historicaly the strongest democrat party candidate in history, that it is not far fetched whatsoever for Kamala to garner similar turnout or probably even greater turnout levels. For many reasons this will of course be entirely localized in a few key cities just like biden's support was. But hey, thats just demographics sorry cons. |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 4:55 PM Author: Bearded becky roast beef So true, very cr (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124308) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 8:28 AM Author: Rebellious crackhouse "It would require levels of Democratic turnout not seen since Obama. I have seen zero metrics to suggest that."
(Dude who forgot what they did in 2020) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:24 PM Author: Smoky beta weed whacker no actual humans are voting for this person
it's all flame |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:25 PM Author: hilarious aphrodisiac idiot skinny woman . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48123177) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:41 PM Author: topaz crotch It's political science. That's why I was able to make accurate predictions. Sorry about your low iq (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48123267) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:49 PM Author: Bateful Stead (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48123288) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:54 PM Author: dead yarmulke (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48123311) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:55 PM Author: Translucent wild tattoo feces (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48123317) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:56 PM Author: Maize indian lodge (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48123323) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:07 PM Author: shimmering school cafeteria (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124357) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 8:16 PM Author: thriller abode (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124902) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 8:03 AM Author: Shaky headpube locus (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48125988) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:51 PM Author: crusty alpha love of her life actually i predicted it before you, sorry (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48123295) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 12:55 PM Author: topaz crotch Shitcons were so dumbfounded when Kamala's numbers popped overnight and stayed persistently high for six weeks. Now they're trying to deny it ever happened. Shitcons are easy to manipulate and control like dogs. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48123312) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 4:26 PM Author: topaz crotch Hey shitcons, thanks for obeying your new master.
https://x.com/tedcruz/status/1838275173146890496 |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:00 PM Author: Mauve Nudist Native lol that fat sack of shit is nervous as hell (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124316) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:28 PM Author: Violent Aromatic Temple Son Of Senegal Trump \not only cucked the GOP, he's brought over his weird swinger friend and is going to make them smile and watch and as that guy fucks their wives too (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124428) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 3:56 PM Author: White startling shitlib turdskin Do the cringe celebrity endorsements (like Oprah had on during the interview) actually help the candidate? I feel like they’re so smug that it literally does more harm than good. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124022) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 4:21 PM Author: topaz crotch No idea. The studies I'm familiar with have less to do with elections/popularity and more to do with obedience. Support for Kamala never had anything to do with Kamala herself. I hope we can at least agree on that, even if you think the polling figures were fake (nearly impossible given the number of orgs getting the same results in dozens of different states, but go ahead and claim they were fake IDC). (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124180) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 4:31 PM Author: know-it-all dilemma Have purposefully not been paying attention to polls in the last two months. Which is helped by that no one IRL around me is talking about the election (perhaps meaingful in its own way). Update me please. What's going on. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124217) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 4:39 PM Author: topaz crotch Trump was leading by a country mile throughout most of the summer. However, whenever anyone mentioned the possibility of Kamala stepping in, literally everyone, libs and cons in unison, would say "but she got zero votes in the primaries. She can't win." Libs were INSISTING that Biden stay in.
During this time I was saying as loudly as I could to anyone who would listen that Kamala would dominate the polls if she were subbed in. No one believed me. Even when it was happening no one believed the poll numbers were real. Even now, as Trump's poll numbers rise, people are claiming the old polls were FAKE.
What really happened is that Kamala squandered a yuge natural advantage. The gun comment to Oprah was devastating because of the violent imagery in conjures up, and the fact that Kamala seemed aware that what she was saying was really fucking stupid. That wasn't her only self-inflicted wound either, it's just the worst one I noticed. I've never seen someone literally say "my staff will deal with that later."
But also, that whole interview was staged really poorly. Look at ANY given image and ask yourself what two colors dominate: orange and brown, the two least pleasant colors anyone wants to see. That whole interview looked like puke. Oprah looked like a monster and Kamala looked old and tuned out, like she was barely listening to the questions. Look at her body posture. She can't even sit right. |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:10 PM Author: titillating bistre theater stage gaping There was an interview she gave after getting the nomination, where she was wearing converse sneakers. I'm sure she has a team of highly paid consultants who convinced her that wearing chucks for her first serious tv interview was a strong tactical move. But at the end of the day she chose to do her first interview as the POTUS nominee wearing kids sneakers. That's when I knew 100% that this woman doesn't even take herself seriously. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124370) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:25 PM Author: topaz crotch I think she lacks self confidence. She's seems afraid to be herself, and maintains a defensive facade when it's not necessary. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124416) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:56 PM Author: dashing theater The real her is an insipid whore who fucked and sucked her way to career advancement and is in her current role for no reason other than her gender and skin pigment. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124506) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 6:02 PM Author: topaz crotch Same with Hillary. All she did was marry a guy who later became State AG and then POTUS. Kamala could have been a whore and still been more relatable than she is. Whores can have personalities and opinions. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124522) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 6:07 PM Author: dashing theater Hilldawg had an above average IQ. Harris should be a department manager at Macy’s. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124531) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:02 PM Author: ocher razzmatazz range Shitcons refuse to believe that a great portion of this country hates Trump and wants any competent alternative
Your vote doesn’t count double because you love Trump so much you threw him a boat parade |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:07 PM Author: idiotic ungodly giraffe dog poop (guy who lives in Portland) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124354) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:09 PM Author: ocher razzmatazz range (2nd Admiral in the Lake Lanier boat parade) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124363) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:14 PM Author: idiotic ungodly giraffe dog poop You sound like someone who has been secluded in a shitlib stronghold. Drive across the country and then get back to me about all this hate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124382) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:19 PM Author: ocher razzmatazz range Respectfully, you have no idea how much of this country I’ve driven through. You sound like someone who doesn’t understand what population density is. It doesn’t give a shit if all 25 residents of bumblefuck mi have a let’s go Brandon flag up (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124398) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:23 PM Author: idiotic ungodly giraffe dog poop Well, I learned not to try to talk people out of their delusions so . . . (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124411) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:59 PM Author: ocher razzmatazz range Just be sure to scream fraud this time extra loud when your boi loses (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124512) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:59 PM Author: idiotic ungodly giraffe dog poop Will do, thank. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124514) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:30 PM Author: Violent Aromatic Temple Son Of Senegal (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124431) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:12 PM Author: cracking heaven people who are hurt Yeah this is the first I'm hearing about this alleged hate. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124376) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 7:38 PM Author: Self-absorbed gold point (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124804) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:16 PM Author: topaz crotch People prefer stability over uncertainty. Your problem is that Kamala looks like an agent of chaos now, while Trump has a Kennedy on board. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124387) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:21 PM Author: ocher razzmatazz range LMFAO “a Kennedy” moves the needle about as much as “Dick Cheney” moved the needle for Kamala. No one gives a shit about RFK Jr. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124400) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:27 PM Author: topaz crotch Then why are you a pumo? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124419) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:26 PM Author: mildly autistic unholy brunch How does Kamala looks like an agent of chaos? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124418) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:27 PM Author: topaz crotch She lied about shooting someone. Everyone knew it was a lie when she was saying it. Oprah couldn't do anything for her. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124423) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:17 PM Author: titillating bistre theater stage gaping Define "great portion." This country looks almost entirely red to my eyes
https://www.270towin.com/2024-house-election/kqxjOn5.png |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:22 PM Author: ocher razzmatazz range (Huge expert on how America’s population is spread out) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124405) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 8:04 AM Author: Shaky headpube locus You’re right. The problem is that she isn’t a competent alternative. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48125990) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:05 PM Author: silver medicated stag film incel she'll win. sorry. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124345) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:48 PM Author: mildly autistic unholy brunch (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124485) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:13 PM Author: idiotic ungodly giraffe dog poop What happened in the Oprah interview? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124380) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:18 PM Author: topaz crotch She alienated her entire base for no reason, in the ugliest setting imaginable.
https://x.com/_johnnymaga/status/1836939199066317250 |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:52 PM Author: twinkling location foreskin How is this alienating to the base? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124495) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:58 PM Author: ocher razzmatazz range Don’t ask questions. People who would never be “in her base” have decided it so (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124510) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 6:05 PM Author: topaz crotch cope (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124523) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:41 PM Author: Aquamarine flirting electric furnace shitcon cope thread. QUEEN Kamala is getting 400+ EVs hth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124463) |
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Date: September 23rd, 2024 5:49 PM Author: twinkling location foreskin take your meds, NSAM (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48124487) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 8:13 AM Author: jade passionate twinkling uncleanness she's soooooooooooooo done here:
Tuesday, September 24 Michigan: Trump vs. Harris USA Today/Suffolk Harris 48, Trump 45 Harris +3
North Carolina: Trump vs. Harris Elon University Trump 45, Harris 46 Harris +1
National: Trump vs. Harris Morning Consult Harris 50, Trump 45 Harris +5
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Date: September 24th, 2024 8:25 AM Author: Massive Rusted Shrine Rigpig jfc birdshiTs (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48126010) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 11:24 AM Author: Shaky headpube locus O what a prethtigious morning consult! (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48126490) |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 8:34 AM Author: Mustard chapel On one hand, I want to believe. On the other hand, OP is NSAM |
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Date: September 24th, 2024 8:34 AM Author: Galvanic Vengeful Base Kitty pollth (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48126025) |
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Date: November 16th, 2024 11:39 AM Author: cowstack What lead? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=5600176&forum_id=2Reputation#48344997) |