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confession: I still don't really get the Monty Hall problem
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Date: February 26th, 2013 11:53 PM Author: thirsty galvanic public bath toilet seat Or to put it better, I get it but it's an extremely uncomfortable understanding and it still doesn't feel intuitive at all (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717724) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:01 AM Author: smoky pistol sound barrier totally normal even for moderately high-IQ folks as long as games aren't your wheelhouse (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717793) |
Date: February 26th, 2013 11:53 PM Author: umber hissy fit The point of it is that it's not intuitive. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717731) |
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Date: February 26th, 2013 11:55 PM Author: thirsty galvanic public bath toilet seat i guess, but it still pisses me off
fuck you, math |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:05 AM Author: out-of-control laughsome regret set cr (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717820) |
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Date: February 26th, 2013 11:57 PM Author: citrine startling people who are hurt antidepressant drug Sorry that more knowledge doesn't improve your outcomes. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717758) |
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Date: February 26th, 2013 11:58 PM Author: umber hissy fit At least you're doing better than this guy, OP. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717765) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:00 AM Author: citrine startling people who are hurt antidepressant drug (confirmation bias guy) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717780) |
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Date: February 26th, 2013 11:58 PM Author: charismatic principal's office clown It is a fairly straightforward application of Bayes. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717766) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:01 AM Author: citrine startling people who are hurt antidepressant drug http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/c/d/3/cd3ad66348b177648a8dc545d40b98cd.png (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717790) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:00 AM Author: Rambunctious Half-breed For the longest time, I would understand and then immediately forget. I think the best way to understand is this:
If you switch, you only lose if your initial pick was the car. The chances of your initial pick being the car is 1/3, therefore your chances of getting the car by switching are 2/3.
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:01 AM Author: citrine startling people who are hurt antidepressant drug lol, no
Your chances move from 1/3 to 1/2. It is, or it isn't. |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:03 AM Author: Rambunctious Half-breed lol, no
it's 2/3 |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:05 AM Author: citrine startling people who are hurt antidepressant drug When you see the goat? Yes. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717819) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:06 AM Author: Rambunctious Half-breed wut (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717824) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:10 AM Author: umber hissy fit http://everythingoftoday.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/jackie-chan-wtf-face-i16.jpg (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717860) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:03 AM Author: umber hissy fit Just when you thought this dude couldn't get wronger. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717803) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:09 AM Author: Ocher Church Building Legend agreed, this is the best way to think about it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717851) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:01 AM Author: hateful titillating church juggernaut don't worry. the people who think they get it don't get it either. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717787) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:03 AM Author: exhilarant kitchen (actual poli sci shithead retard without a STEM degree) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717808) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:02 AM Author: exhilarant kitchen Even at 14 I never understood why people were confused by this. I'm surprised it's even a "problem." Just imagine there are a million doors and only one prize but you got to play the game ten times. Does it really make sense to you that you'd have a 50/50 shot when 999,998 doors were exposed as empty each time you played? Remember, you randomly picked your door among a MILLION FUCKING RANDOM DOORS. You have almost no chance of picking correctly. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717799) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:04 AM Author: umber hissy fit IMO, it makes more intuitive sense the more doors/guesses you add. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717814) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:09 AM Author: Domesticated Crimson Abode Kitty There was a 1/1M chance at picking the right door on the first try. But, once they reveal 999,998 doors, you then know that there is a 50% chance that your original 1/1M guess was correct. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717854) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:13 AM Author: exhilarant kitchen Even though there was a 100% chance that 999,998 doors would be exposed? You really think that you would randomly pick 5/10 of the prizes when you had a .0001% chance of guessing correctly each time? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717878) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:16 AM Author: Domesticated Crimson Abode Kitty Once they've narrowed it down to two doors, one of which has the prize, and they ask you to stick-or-swap, either choice is essentially making a brand new selection from the two presented options. "Sticking with my original choice" just means selecting the one of the two that I happened to choose at the outset. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717894) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:20 AM Author: exhilarant kitchen This has to be flame.
It's not a new choice. The door you picked had a 0% chance of being exposed, whether it had the prize or not. The other door that wasn't exposed had a >99.99% chance of being exposed, but wasn't. If this still genuinely doesn't make sense to you, then you are stupid. There's no other way around it. |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:26 AM Author: Domesticated Crimson Abode Kitty It is a new choice, dude. "There are two doors left, door #1 and door #2. You originally picked door #1 -- do you want to stick with that or pick door #2 instead?" IS THE EXACT SAME FUCKING QUESTION AS "Okay, well now we've narrowed it down to two doors, one of which has the prize. Door #1 or Door #2, which is it going to be?" (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717967) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:30 AM Author: umber hissy fit OMFG dude. Have you read ANY of the explanations in this thread? Have you ever attempted to learn anything about probability before this moment? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717998) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 11:43 AM Author: irradiated boistinker dysfunction Tbf, the MH problem has really befuddled people far smarter than the smartest person ever to post on XO. No shame in being confused by it. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22719709) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:39 AM Author: exhilarant kitchen I really hope this is flame.
You aren't picking between two identical doors. You are picking between a door that had a 0% chance of being exposed and a door that had a 99.99+% chance of being exposed. It's the same as picking the winner in a fight between Mike Tyson and Stephen Hawking. It's not a 50/50 shot because you aren't picking between two identical people. |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 11:35 AM Author: Wonderful lake trailer park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22719653) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:25 AM Author: Ocher Church Building Legend Car can be in 3 positions. You Pick Door 1 every time.
Car Goat Goat. MH picks Door 3. Switch. You Lose. Goat Car Goat. MH Picks Door 3. Switch. You Win. Goat Goat Car. MH picks Door 2. Switch. You Win.
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Date: February 27th, 2013 11:38 AM Author: irradiated boistinker dysfunction When you first pick, that door has to remain closed up until you're offered to switch. Now almost one million more doors are opened, each having a goat behind them. Now the only doors remaining are your door and the one door they didn't open when the procedure is "open almost all of the goat doors, but leave one door closed if there is a non-goat behind it or behind first chosen door." On an intuitive level, forget the math, doesn't the door left closed by that procedure feel stronger to you than the "pick one in a million, randomly and without any information" procedure? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22719670) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:02 PM Author: canary magical french chef philosopher-king NOT WHEN THE HOST KNOWS HE IS REVEALING A LOSING DOOR. That is what the entire thing turns on. If they randomly revealed all but 2 doors not knowing whether they would reveal the prize, then you are correct. But that is not how it is done. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22719829) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:06 AM Author: Domesticated Crimson Abode Kitty I don't really get it either. When they ask you whether to swap or not, they are essentially saying "pick one of these two remaining doors" and at that point you know 1 has a goat and 1 has a car and you don't have any information that makes it more or less likely that your door is the 1 out of 2 that has the car. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717826) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:14 AM Author: thirsty galvanic public bath toilet seat host knowing he's picking a goat door is where the key lies
like the other guy said, imagine the same scenario with a fuckton more doors. You pick one out of 1000. Host reveals 998 goats. Asks if you should switch. Does it make any sense for the final two to be half and half? The goatspotting prick went through and handpicked out of 999 doors 998 of them because he knew they had goats. Pretty good chance he skipped that last door for a reason. Because it's got a SICK as fuck Audi R8 behind it.
It basically changes the question to a choice between 1 door or a big block of 999 doors. The host just very conveniently saved you the trouble of combing your big ass block of doors for the one with your Audi. |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:15 AM Author: out-of-control laughsome regret set it's because the host will never eliminate the door with the prize.
remember, you're supposed to always switch doors when given the chance. what are all the possibilities here?
1. You start by picking the correct door A, the other two doors (B and C) have goats. In this scenario, you switch doors and you lose.
2. You pick door A (which contains goats), and the host eliminates door B (which contains goats). The remaining door C has the car. Switch and you win.
3. You pick door A (which contains goats), and the host eliminates door C (which contains goats). The remaining door B has the car. Switch and you win.
You win when you switch 2/3 of the time. |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:23 AM Author: Domesticated Crimson Abode Kitty Imagine that after they've opened the first door to reveal a goat, they bring in a new dude who has no idea what is going on and they show him the two remaining doors. They say: "one of these doors has a goat and one has a car, which one do you want to pick?" Are you telling me the probability is something other than 50/50 for that guy? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717948) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:25 AM Author: umber hissy fit It's not 50-50 for him. The door you picked has a higher probability of having a goat. Just because he doesn't know that doesn't mean it's not true. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717960) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:28 AM Author: Domesticated Crimson Abode Kitty Okay, well I'm just going to throw my hands up and say I don't get it. I like to think I'm a reasonably smart dude (177 lsat, 1550 SAT), but I just can't wrap my head around this one. Maybe I am dumber than I thought. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717987) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:38 AM Author: thirsty galvanic public bath toilet seat You gave an intelligent reply, but it's also one that muddles the issue and makes it a shitload more complicated than it needs to be.
Again, think of it as the probability of either:
A. Picking 1 door out of 3 B. Picking 2 doors out of 3
Would you rather take A or B? B, obviously. You know B contains at least one goat. Well what if the host decides to be a nice ass guy and open one of the goat doors in option B so you don't have to bother with it? You'd still take block B, with its 2/3rds probability. You just wouldn't have to bother with that goat door the host opened.
Again, the key thing is that the host: -Isn't picking your door -Is always going for a goat door. He knows which doors have goats and he's picking one. |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:42 AM Author: exhilarant kitchen http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&mc=49&forum_id=2#22718050 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22718070) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:31 AM Author: out-of-control laughsome regret set my understanding is that it would be 50/50 for him bro (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22718014) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:39 AM Author: umber hissy fit Your understanding is incorrect. You could program robots to execute this shit over and over again without "understanding" what was happening and the probabilities would be the same. It makes no difference if another clueless person makes the second choice. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22718052) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:42 AM Author: hateful titillating church juggernaut this doesn't make sense.
the guy walking into the room can't get the benefit of "switching" his guess, because he had made no guess before monty hall removed one of the choices.
for him it is a 50/50 pick. |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:43 AM Author: Ocher Church Building Legend Car can be in 3 positions. You Pick Door 1 every time.
Car Goat Goat. MH picks Door 3. Switch. You Lose.
Goat Car Goat. MH Picks Door 3. Switch. You Win.
Goat Goat Car. MH picks Door 2. Switch. You Win. |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:45 AM Author: hateful titillating church juggernaut we're talking about a guy entering the game after 1/3 of the doors has already been eliminated by Monty Hall.
he's looking at 2 doors with no special information.
50/50 |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:46 AM Author: Ocher Church Building Legend correct. this is not an application of bayesian probability any more because there's no new information. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22718106) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 4:35 PM Author: tantric frisky den coldplay fan He may not know the probability, but that doesn't change it. It's objective, the viewpoint doesn't matter.
Having two choices doesn't automatically make it 50-50. That is a common intuition that is wrong. It's like saying the choice is Alabama v. South Dakota State in football. 50-50 choice, only two choices. |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 4:40 PM Author: hateful titillating church juggernaut no, see.
he doesn't know anything.
i'm saying: a 2nd guy walks onto the set of the Monty Hall game at the stage of the game where Monty Hall has just removed 1 of the doors.
before the original contestant is asked if he wants to switch his choice, the 2nd guy is asked to choose between the two remaining doors.
for him, the choice is 50/50, because he has no information at all establishing anything about probability of either door containing a prize.
it's just slightly funny that the same 2 doors can present different probabilities for the 2 guys standing next to each other making the same decision (choosing the same door). |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 4:45 PM Author: tantric frisky den coldplay fan The probability is an objective truth, not based on perspective. He may not know that truth, but it's still true.
Just like if you didn't know Alabama was great and South Dakota sucks, it's still not a 50-50 bet.
You are talking about a game theory like strategy. But there is still 2/3rd chance that the prize is behind the other door. |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 4:54 PM Author: hateful titillating church juggernaut there is no "other door" for someone who comes into the game at the point where there are 2 doors remaining, when he has not previously chosen a door, and does not know what the original contestant's choice was. there is only a choice between 2 doors, one of which he is told will reveal a prize.
the odds of him choosing correctly are 50/50.
the probability is all about perspective. otherwise all you are saying is that "there is a 100% chance that the door containing the prize contains the prize. this is an objective truth." |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 4:52 PM Author: Cerise market but they aren't different probabilities. the same door has the same probability of being the one with the car regardless of who chooses it. scholarship (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22722090) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:45 AM Author: out-of-control laughsome regret set this is irrelevant to the new scenario we're talking about.
for the new guy it's:
GOAT CAR, Pick door 1, you lost.
CAR GOAT, Pick door 1, you win. |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:46 AM Author: Ocher Church Building Legend correct. this is not an application of bayesian probability any more because there's no new information. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22718108) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:50 AM Author: umber hissy fit See below (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22718145) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:46 AM Author: umber hissy fit No it isn't. The probability of the first pick containing the car was 1/3. That probability is locked in as soon as the choice is made. The fact that the host knows which door contains the car, and chooses not to open that door alters the probabilities involved in the second choice. This is true regardless of what the choosers know/believe/whatever. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22718102) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:44 AM Author: out-of-control laughsome regret set No, you're wrong bro. A guy with no outside knowledge does indeed have a 50/50 shot of picking the correct door. I think you'll find this is correct if you google it.
Guess we'll have to agree to disagree. |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:45 AM Author: Ocher Church Building Legend Car can be in 3 positions. You Pick Door 1 every time.
Car Goat Goat. MH picks Door 3. Switch. You Lose.
Goat Car Goat. MH Picks Door 3. Switch. You Win.
Goat Goat Car. MH picks Door 2. Switch. You Win. |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:46 AM Author: out-of-control laughsome regret set are you even reading what you're responding to bro? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22718107) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:46 AM Author: Ocher Church Building Legend correct. this is not an application of bayesian probability any more because there's no new information. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22718109) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:50 AM Author: umber hissy fit The new information is the door opened by the host. Whether or not the introduction of that information affects the beliefs of the chooser has no effect on the objective probability of the car being behind either of the two remaining doors. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22718140) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:42 AM Author: Ocher Church Building Legend Car can be in 3 positions. You Pick Door 1 every time.
Car Goat Goat. MH picks Door 3. Switch. You Lose.
Goat Car Goat. MH Picks Door 3. Switch. You Win.
Goat Goat Car. MH picks Door 2. Switch. You Win. |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:47 AM Author: Ocher Church Building Legend correct. this is not an application of bayesian probability any more because there's no new information. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22718114) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:30 AM Author: out-of-control laughsome regret set yes, it's 50/50 for that guy. Our knowledge about which types of door the host will eliminate informs us that it's better to switch in the end. The example somebody gave above about 1 million doors makes it more clear. I'm having trouble explaining it more intuitively than that.
This problem is unintuitive. As somebody above mentioned, that's the whole point. |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:07 AM Author: Motley Home the problem isn't always told well (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717842) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:14 AM Author: hateful titillating church juggernaut THERE ARE TWO DOORS YOU CAN PICK ONE THE ODDS OF PICKING THE RIGHT DOOR CANNOT BE OTHER THAN 1/2 BECAUSE, TO REITERATE, THERE ARE TWO DOORS
50/50 |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:20 AM Author: umber hissy fit congratulations, your grasp of probability probably makes you feel right at home among most of the american populace. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717931) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:27 AM Author: citrine startling people who are hurt antidepressant drug It is, or it isn't, brother. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717982) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:29 AM Author: Ocher Church Building Legend Car can be in 3 positions. You Pick Door 1 every time.
Car Goat Goat. MH picks Door 3. Switch. You Lose.
Goat Car Goat. MH Picks Door 3. Switch. You Win.
Goat Goat Car. MH picks Door 2. Switch. You Win. |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:27 AM Author: Big chrome hunting ground http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=1784116&mc=55&forum_id=2 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22717979) |
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Date: March 4th, 2015 1:26 PM Author: gold razzle haunted graveyard casino (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#27428052) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:31 AM Author: Hairraiser orchestra pit BUT THE MATH NERDS WHO THINK THE ANSWER IS 2/3 DONT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE PSYCHOLOGY OF THE SITUATION AND WHETHER MONTY WANTS TO TRIP THE CONTESTANT UP ETC. (POLISCI SHITHEAD) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22718012) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:32 AM Author: Cerise market That's the point. I don't get it intuitively either. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22718017) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:35 AM Author: Ocher Church Building Legend your brain is too busy focusing on the independent choice of picking 1 car from 2 doors. It doesn't intuitively evaluate the scenario as a whole from the beginning. Really illustrates why people don't understand bayesian probability. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22718029) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:43 AM Author: Big chrome hunting ground listen, virgin, *most* things arent solved by "intuition." that's why it's called intuition and not "reasoning."
i don't know if they taught you that in poli sci but you might as well learn it now. |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:50 AM Author: Cerise market (actual virgin that doesn't understand the sweet scholarship of bayesian interpretation) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22718146) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 11:58 AM Author: irradiated boistinker dysfunction lol wtf this seems like scholarship to me (intuitively) (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22719809) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 4:37 PM Author: Big chrome hunting ground but thats not scholarship (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22721985) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 4:42 PM Author: Cerise market I have of late, (but wherefore I know not) lost all my mirth, forgone all custom of bayesian scholarship |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:44 AM Author: exhilarant kitchen http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&mc=49&forum_id=2#22718050 (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22718085) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 11:29 AM Author: Wonderful lake trailer park (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22719622) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 11:34 AM Author: cruel-hearted indigo dingle berry Take it to a more extreme example to illustrate it better. Say there are 1,000 doors and you need to pick one. 998 are eliminated. You would be fucking insane NOT to switch since you know for sure that your original pick was a 1/1000 chance meaning the other door is 999/1000. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22719645) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 12:02 PM Author: Rambunctious Half-breed yes, but like I posted above, you don't even need to use a higher number to make it make sense. With just the 3 door example: you only lose by switching if your original pick happened to be the car. The chances of your original pick being the car is 1/3. Therefore switching gives you a 2/3 chance of winning. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22719832) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 4:45 PM Author: Jet address jewess I think that illustration is helpful in understanding why it works out that way though, because with the larger numbers, you can see the value of Monty Hall eliminating the wrong choices. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22722029) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 4:46 PM Author: hateful titillating church juggernaut using the higher number of doors is BS because it changes the game.
switching your guess from 1 out of 1Million doors to 1 out of 2 is not the Monty Hall Game. |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 4:50 PM Author: Jet address jewess why not? (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22722078) |
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Date: June 1st, 2020 3:41 PM Author: maniacal cocky gas station selfie the point is that it illustrates the principle (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#40321886) |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 4:41 PM Author: flatulent soul-stirring multi-billionaire (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22722007) |
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Date: February 28th, 2013 2:51 AM Author: Big chrome hunting ground monty hall is done here
but if i were going to use it id ask someone to describe ONE WEIRD TRICK to make it 50/50: http://www.xoxohth.com/thread.php?thread_id=1784116&mc=55&forum_id=2#19176655
door-switchers hate him |
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Date: February 27th, 2013 4:50 PM Author: concupiscible keepsake machete pretty lulzy thread considering how many IQ fetishists are on this site (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22722066) |
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Date: February 28th, 2013 2:48 AM Author: Pea-brained olive milk idea he suggested There are a lot of dumbs on xo these days/ (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#22726163) |
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Date: March 4th, 2015 1:32 PM Author: doobsian school cafeteria So many fucking retards ITT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#27428085) |
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Date: March 4th, 2015 1:39 PM Author: ruddy dashing associate school so long as you understand that monty is not out to fuck you, it's easy to understand. most people understandably presume that monty knows where everything is located and is only offering another door for possibly nefarious reasons. if monty got to pick and choose when he did this, he could make the odds whatever he wanted to. |
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Date: March 4th, 2015 1:39 PM Author: thriller mewling stage LOL HOLY SHIT (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#27428128) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 5:29 PM Author: At-the-ready silver house mediation (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#29428149) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 5:53 PM Author: electric queen of the night center Variation: we play the million door version and then after you pick, a computer randomly opens 999,998 doors. The vast majority of the time it opens the door with the prize and you easily win. But say after playing countless times the computer opened all doors without the prize, leaving your original choice and one remaining door.
In that scenario, would it be 50-50? I think so intuitively but someone could tell me I'm wrong.
I think this reveals the gist of the problem--monte isn't random. |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 5:55 PM Author: Floppy soggy circlehead Yes, this would be 50/50. The critical component of the problem is that Monty isn't acting randomly. He will ALWAYS open a door with a goat, no matter what. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#29428296) |
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Date: December 21st, 2015 5:54 PM Author: slimy peach heaven trump supporter Wait, does this work if Monte is out to make me lose and it isn't random? Because I'd assume if I'm on a game show that is what he is trying to do. (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#29428290) |
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Date: June 1st, 2020 3:34 PM Author: glittery fighting pisswyrm (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#40321843) |
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Date: June 1st, 2020 3:35 PM Author: At-the-ready silver house mediation reminds me of when people here didn't understand simple mathematical induction with that green-eyed dragons on the island thing (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#40321848) |
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Date: June 1st, 2020 3:43 PM Author: maniacal cocky gas station selfie except that when the problem was originally discussed by that 200+ IQ bitch in Parade magazine there were tenured professors of mathematics arguing vehemently for the wrong answer (http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=2193583&forum_id=2#40321892) |