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The Next Twelve Months of Nate Silver's 538.com Headlines:

December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan&quo...
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  12/10/15
...
~~(> ' ' )>
  12/12/15
...
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  01/02/17
...
\'\'\'\'\'\'\'
  01/06/16
...
.,..,....,.....,.,....,,....,......,......,,.,.,..
  01/06/16
another bump
.,..,....,.....,.,....,,....,......,......,,.,.,..
  06/05/16
180
.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.
  03/26/16
...
Larry Wheels
  01/02/17
"October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trum...
'"''"'""""
  10/25/18
...
.;:..;:.;.:.;.,,,..,.:,.;....;,;;;..;,..,
  12/10/15
1800000000
hbs bro
  12/10/15
180
Woah Cr friend!
  12/10/15
Fantastic work ITT
pussy stick
  12/10/15
...
Julius Caesar\'s Mistress
  12/15/15
FUCK | THIS | KIKE
Cory Booger
  12/10/15
Poasting in a historic thread.
my dog has more potential dates than I do
  12/10/15
Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too. Not sayi...
TannerBoyle
  12/10/15
...
Derek Jeter 3000 Errors
  12/11/15
Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based ...
\"\'\"\'\"\'\'\"\"\"
  12/12/15
Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to im...
cauear
  12/16/15
Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM Author: TannerBoyle Ye...
Sickly Upset Jew getting HIV test results
  01/04/16
...
,.,...,..,.,.,:,..,.,.,:;,......;,..,;.:.,:.::,.
  11/09/16
...
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  12/11/15
...
...,..,,,.....,....
  12/11/15
180 million
Kiddush Hashem
  12/11/15
November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority f...
Derek Jeter 3000 Errors
  12/11/15
...
Low IQ Idiot
  12/12/15
Don't edit loser
GOY GUN NUT
  01/25/16
...
\'\'\'\'\'\'\'\'\"\'\'\'\'
  11/10/16
...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  12/12/15
...
Belisarius
  12/12/15
lol
\"\'\"\'\"\'\'\"\"
  12/12/15
March 9 THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN March 1...
YAS QUEEN
  12/12/15
...
_@_\'-\'
  12/15/15
1 fuckin' 80
Trump Mountain
  12/21/15
...
KamalaSexyFineCleverChocolate
  12/12/15
lol, 180
hank_scorpio
  12/12/15
...
A man, a plan, a canal, wgwag
  12/12/15
...
chandler (retired)
  12/12/15
Well done.
,.,.,.,,,.,,,,,,,;.,.,..,:.,,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.
  12/12/15
Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke mys...
Boichester United
  12/12/15
OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trum...
my dog has more potential dates than I do
  12/15/15
And today's: "The fifth Republican debate ended in a n...
my dog has more potential dates than I do
  12/16/15
190
\"\'\'\'\'\"\"\'\"
  12/15/15
fuck u for making me laugh
Gen. Elba (Space Force Lib-Command)
  12/15/15
I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first p...
I}e $H /-\\ u N
  12/15/15
180
..,,,.....,,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,,,..,,.,,...,,..,,
  12/15/15
February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hamps...
Wilbur Mercer, the supreme gentleman
  12/15/15
You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice b...
.,.,..,,.,,,..,:,,:....,:::,..,:,.,.:..:.,:.::,.,
  12/15/15
Trump odds, August 2015: Silver: 2% Miller: 0% Enten: -10...
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  12/15/15
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-...
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  12/15/15
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-...
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  12/15/15
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-to...
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  12/15/15
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentucky...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  12/15/15
...
\"\'\"\"\'\"\'\'\"\"
  01/05/16
Can't wait to bump this
GOY GUN NUT
  01/25/16
...
chilmata
  12/17/16
...
Frank Booth introducing TRUMP after SC primary win
  05/18/16
...
evan39
  08/12/16
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-c...
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  11/09/16
...
'""''''"'
  11/09/16
Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And...
Grandpa of the Year
  11/09/16
This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing.
\'\"\"\'\'\'\"\"\'
  12/15/15
180
Non sequitur
  12/16/15
...
beckersted.
  12/16/15
Incredible
hung stud
  12/16/15
Trump Boom or Trump Bubble? https://fivethirtyeight.com/fe...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  12/16/15
Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing http://fivethirtyeig...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  12/17/15
...
EVAN39=BALD
  12/18/15
...
\'\'\'\'\'\'\'
  01/06/16
...
young ned of the hill
  12/18/15
Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By ...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  12/21/15
"Trump has some weird chinks in his armor" http:/...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  12/21/15
1 fuckin' 80
Trump Mountain
  12/21/15
"micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief ...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  12/30/15
One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concent...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  12/30/15
This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  01/04/16
flawless OP. uninflated 180.
Sickly Upset Jew getting HIV test results
  01/04/16
ty for all the updates itt
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  01/05/16
Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread
GOY GUN NUT
  01/25/16
From Silver's Twitter: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?...
EVAN39=BALD
  01/05/16
1800000000000
Cash Money is an Army
  01/05/16
...
teabaggervance
  01/05/16
An historic poast
The cruel fifth procurator of Bethesda
  01/05/16
180 trillion
Freddy
  01/05/16
I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys http:...
The cruel fifth procurator of Bethesda
  01/05/16
...
\'\'\'\'\'\'\'
  01/06/16
Bump to make sure my friends saw this
The cruel fifth procurator of Bethesda
  01/06/16
No bias there right? What a shitbird.
Freddy
  01/05/16
...
evan39
  01/06/16
...
Trump Mountain
  01/07/16
“HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time maga...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  01/08/16
180 if not copy paste
JFC
  01/08/16
...
Trump Mountain
  01/08/16
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald...
EVAN39=BALD
  01/09/16
...
Trump Mountain
  01/10/16
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-u...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  01/18/16
Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0 http://fivethirtyeight.com/...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  01/19/16
looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nom...
EVAN39=BALD
  01/21/16
...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  01/25/16
180000000000000000000000000000000000000
go back to africa
  01/25/16
You're a democratic, remember?
GOY GUN NUT
  01/25/16
No way! 100% TRUMPMO
go back to africa
  02/09/16
(2-time shitbama voter)
JFC
  09/06/16
...
\'\'\'\'\'\'\'
  11/05/18
...
.,,.....,...,.,:,,:....,:::.,.,.:,...:..:.,:.::.,
  01/29/16
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  02/01/16
...
http://i.imgur.com/GzDww8M.jpg
  02/01/16
...
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  02/01/16
...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  02/07/16
...
Cash Money is an Army
  02/09/16
...
acp
  02/09/16
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  02/20/16
OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predi...
Mr. Bianca Andreescu
  02/20/16
PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE
Frank Booth introducing TRUMP after SC primary win
  02/24/16
The OP is XO at its peak brilliance.
the french inhaler
  02/24/16
...
ImanageCat
  02/27/16
...
\"\'\'\'\'\"\"\'\"
  03/09/16
...
Dr. Cool
  03/15/16
...
Woah Cr friend!
  03/15/16
...
Gen. Elba (Space Force Lib-Command)
  03/16/16
hosting error... LOL this is better than any snl sketch i...
[account temporarily suspended]
  02/24/16
...
.,.,.,.,.,,,...,,..,,..,,..,,.,.,,..,
  02/24/16
...
Gen. Elba (Space Force Lib-Command)
  07/21/16
...
.,.,,..,..,.,.,:,,:,...,::,...,:,.,.:....:.,:.::,.
  02/24/16
...
Woah Cr friend!
  02/27/16
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  03/02/16
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  03/04/16
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  03/09/16
yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets shou...
Cash Money is an Army
  03/09/16
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  03/15/16
...
Frank Booth introducing TRUMP after SC primary win
  03/15/16
...
Go back
  03/15/16
truly 180 thread
David_Ricardo
  03/15/16
It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Del...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  03/16/16
March is very accurate.
my dog has more potential dates than I do
  03/16/16
...
'""''''"'
  03/23/16
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  03/23/16
http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh
A man, a plan, a canal, wgwag
  03/26/16
Lol,holy Fuck
Benevolent Screed
  03/26/16
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  03/26/16
jesus. . .
\"\'\"\"\'\"\'\'\"\"
  03/28/16
...
'""''''"'
  03/28/16
...
hbs bro
  03/28/16
...
evan39
  08/12/16
...
\'\'\'\'\'\'\'
  11/05/18
"What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Coul...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  03/28/16
"Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan" http://fivethi...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  03/29/16
lol
PrestigeWhore
  03/29/16
"One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Wo...
PrestigeWhore
  03/29/16
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  03/29/16
http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  03/29/16
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballo...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  04/01/16
"Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump" http://fiv...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  04/04/16
interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost...
PrestigeWhore
  04/15/16
...
.... -^^,--,~....
  04/15/16
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  04/19/16
...
Indubitably!
  04/20/16
I love this thread.
Muscadine wine
  04/20/16
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  04/24/16
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  04/25/16
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  04/26/16
...
Surprisingly weak dap from a guy w brolic forearms
  04/26/16
...
AssFaggot
  04/30/16
A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines
..,..,,,,...,...,,,.
  05/01/16
...
..,..,,,,...,...,,,.
  11/07/16
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  05/02/16
...
'""''''"'
  05/02/16
The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support http://fi...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  05/03/16
holy shit
............;;....,,;;..,;,;;;;...;;;;;;.,......
  05/03/16
...
T DOG
  05/03/16
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  05/04/16
180
JFC
  05/04/16
Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries h...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  05/05/16
Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a h...
chandler (retired)
  05/05/16
LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opu...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  05/05/16
Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away.
.,.,.,.,.,,,...,,..,,..,,..,,.,.,,..,
  05/05/16
This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewher...
Belisarius
  05/18/16
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  05/18/16
In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is...
Frank Booth introducing TRUMP after SC primary win
  05/18/16
cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process...
Belisarius
  05/18/16
lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  05/29/16
...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  06/20/16
Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning th...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  06/29/16
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  07/14/16
...
@therealpeternorth
  07/15/16
...
evan39
  07/15/16
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  07/17/16
180
JFC
  07/17/16
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-fli...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  07/21/16
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  07/22/16
...
boner police
  07/22/16
Wow jesua
.,.,,.,..,.,.,:,,:,,.,:.,.:,...,:,.,.:...:.,:.::,.
  07/23/16
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  07/24/16
Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too.
{(o)}
  07/25/16
amazing how accurate this is
PrestigeWhore
  07/25/16
Wish I could profit off this gift.
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  07/27/16
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  08/05/16
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-sh...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  08/09/16
THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up ...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  08/12/16
holy shit did u edit
JFC
  08/12/16
I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts.
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  08/12/16
LOL if true. I believe you, bro.
Body Parts and Parcel Trucks
  08/12/16
THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is Fa...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  08/30/16
180 i want 2 believe
JFC
  08/30/16
lol
JFC
  09/06/16
Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled http://fivethirtyei...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  09/13/16
ho lee fuk this is getting good
PrestigeWhore
  09/14/16
Wow. Nailed July, August and early September
KamalaSexyFineCleverChocolate
  09/14/16
September 15, 2016 "How Trump Could Win The White Ho...
SOYLENT trump is president (retired)
  09/15/16
September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don...
lawman8
  09/15/16
god this is good
.,..,....,.....,.,....,,....,......,......,,.,.,..
  09/15/16
XO never not on point
DrakeMallard
  09/15/16
...
pepito
  09/15/16
...
,.....,.,..,.,.,,...,,.,.,.....,,.,
  09/19/16
The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver.
,.....,.,..,.,.,,...,,.,.,.....,,.,
  09/19/16
let's not cross the swords
JFC
  09/27/16
...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  09/24/16
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-w...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  09/27/16
...
JFC
  09/27/16
This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO hi...
my dog has more potential dates than I do
  09/27/16
...
\'\'\"\'\"\"\"\'\'\'\'
  10/08/16
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-...
PrestigeWhore
  09/28/16
...
KamalaSexyFineCleverChocolate
  09/28/16
180
JFC
  09/28/16
This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting...
Muscadine wine
  09/28/16
...
.... -^^,--,~....
  09/28/16
...
404 poster not found
  10/08/16
hey, this weekend wasnt in the script
JFC
  10/09/16
Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere
.,.,...,.,,,.,:.,:,...,:::..,.,;.,..,:..:.,.,::.,,
  10/09/16
doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago i...
JFC
  10/09/16
half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday
;:;;;:::....(:::
  10/09/16
nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta p...
PrestigeWhore
  10/10/16
close enough.
{(o)}
  10/30/16
Almost there
evan39
  11/01/16
...
DrakeMallard
  11/01/16
...
\"\"\'\"\'\"\"\'\'\'\'
  11/02/16
...
..,,,.....,,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,,,..,,.,,...,,..,,
  11/02/16
prob the last time we can bump this
PrestigeWhore
  11/07/16
You say that but.....
1080
  11/08/16
true, the shitlibs can bump all they like
PrestigeWhore
  11/08/16
ty for your sympathy bump.
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  11/08/16
ho lee fuk
PrestigeWhore
  11/08/16
...
\'\'\"\'\'\'\"\'\'\'\"\'
  11/08/16
Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump LJ...
nervous reliever(s) who get shellacked
  11/08/16
...
http://i.imgur.com/GzDww8M.jpg
  11/08/16
...
,.....,.,..,.,.,,...,,.,.,.....,,.,
  11/08/16
...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  11/08/16
...
Mark Wohlers
  11/09/16
...
SOYLENT trump is president (retired)
  11/09/16
...
nihilist star wars
  11/09/16
...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  11/09/16
GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME
DrakeMallard
  11/09/16
...
Mark Wohlers
  11/09/16
it really deserves national attention
{(o)}
  11/09/16
...
chandler (retired)
  11/09/16
...
Driving back in silence from retirement home
  12/03/16
...
\'\'\'\'\'\'\'\'\"\'\'\'\'
  12/07/16
...
chilmata
  12/17/16
...
,.,...,..,.,.,:,,:,.,.,:::,..,..,:,.,.:.:.,:.::,.
  11/09/16
Historic.
The Buzz Aldrin Spacelaw Fellowship
  11/09/16
...
The Molochian Pimp's Assassination
  11/09/16
180 The anti-Rudolph.
Drunkard
  11/09/16
...
Driving back in silence from retirement home
  11/09/16
...
evan39
  11/09/16
...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  11/09/16
this cannot be bumped enough.
Belisarius
  11/09/16
...
JFC
  11/09/16
...
.......,,,,,,,,
  11/09/16
...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  11/09/16
...
Terence McKenna
  11/09/16
...
The DJT USSF INTERGALACTIC JUGGERNAUT
  11/09/16
November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the pol...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  11/09/16
you're fucking nostradamus
pussy stick
  11/09/16
...
young ned of the hill
  11/10/16
Here we go...
go back to africa
  11/10/16
bumped
.,..,....,.....,.,....,,....,......,......,,.,.,..
  11/10/16
...
\'\'\"\'\"\"\"\'\'\'
  11/10/16
sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  11/10/16
ROFL
PrestigeWhore
  11/10/16
...
Mr. Bianca Andreescu
  11/10/16
...
,.....,.,..,.,.,,...,,.,.,.....,,.,
  11/14/16
They're all heads attached to the same (((monster)))
eraserhead
  11/14/16
Extraordinary prescience itt
,.,,,,....,,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,,.,.,.
  12/04/16
...
chilmata
  12/17/16
...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  11/25/16
...
Piglet
  12/03/16
GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK!
;:;;;:::....(:::
  12/04/16
https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg
Get Thee To The Rapery
  12/07/16
...
.,..,....,.....,.,....,,....,......,......,,.,.,..
  12/07/16
...
Piglet
  12/07/16
...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  01/02/17
October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predicto...
:D
  01/02/17
ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO.
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  01/02/17
ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump also a classic
:D
  01/02/17
truly magnificent
.,..,....,.....,.,....,,....,......,......,,.,.,..
  01/02/17
...
'""''''"'
  01/16/17
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/
:D
  01/20/17
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  01/20/17
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-bl...
:D
  01/23/17
TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of t...
404 poster not found
  01/23/17
It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the ...
:D
  01/23/17
I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that...
,.,.,.,..,.,.,:,,:,..,:::,.,,.,:.,,.:.,:.,:.::,.
  01/23/17
it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it ...
404 poster not found
  01/23/17
The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was c...
:D
  01/23/17
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-a...
:D
  01/25/17
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misl...
:D
  01/26/17
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-supe...
:D
  02/06/17
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-di...
:D
  02/13/17
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always...
:D
  02/27/17
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probab...
:D
  05/03/17
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  05/03/17
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probabi...
:D
  09/21/17
this seriously needs mainstream coverage
Woah Cr friend!
  01/23/17
One of the greatest things made on this great bort
DrakeMallard
  02/27/17
...
\'\'\'\'\'\'\'
  03/22/17
...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  04/17/17
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  05/08/17
...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  06/20/17
What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020? http...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  08/10/17
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  10/15/17
...
'""''''"'
  10/15/17
...
Bronus Swagner
  10/15/17
...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  11/06/17
credit where it's massively due
I wish you a MAGA Christmas
  11/06/17
...
,.,.,.,..,.,..,:,,:,,.,::,..,,.,:.,,.:.,:.,:.::,.
  11/08/17
...
twins
  11/08/17
...
So we looked at the data
  11/13/17
...
'""''''"'
  12/18/17
Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not...
JFC
  12/18/17
...
'""''''"'
  12/18/17
...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  01/30/18
...
.,..,....,.....,.,....,,....,......,......,,.,.,..
  06/01/18
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-be...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  07/18/18
...
'""''''"'
  07/19/18
...
pepito
  09/20/18
The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  09/25/18
It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true
hbs bro
  10/06/18
lol 180
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  10/06/18
...
.,..,....,.....,.,....,,....,......,......,,.,.,..
  10/25/18
Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular.
lawman8
  10/25/18
...
GOY GUN NUT
  11/05/18
...
.,..,....,.....,.,....,,....,......,......,,.,.,..
  11/05/18
...
\'\'\'\'\'\'\'
  11/05/18
...
.,..,....,.....,.,....,,....,......,......,,.,.,..
  11/05/18
What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivet...
.,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,
  01/08/19
...
Walrus
  02/23/19
Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main ...
.....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.
  03/13/19
There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. ...
GOY GUN NUT
  06/24/19
...
''"'""''"""
  06/24/19


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: December 10th, 2015 4:48 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.

December 12, 2015: "Anticipating Trump's Black Swan"

December 18, 2015: "As Voters Flee Carson, Is Trump Harmed Most?"

December 30, 2015: "The Fickle Iowa Voter and the Biggest Trump Problem"

January 8, 2016: "Cruz's Rise Harms Trump Most"

January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out"

January 22, 2016: "Trump's Independent Bid Would Fare Worse Than His Republican One"

January 29, 2016: "The Herding Effect and Trump's Polling Problem"

February 2, 2016: "Trump's Landslide in Iowa, But a Narrow Delegate Victory"

February 4, 2016: "The House Effects Lifting Trump's Numbers in New Hampshire"

February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."

February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"

February 11, 2016: "Rubio's Exit May Be Trump's Death Blow"

February 17, 2016: "Clinton the Greatest Threat to Trump's Nomination"

February 26, 2016: "Religious Conservatives and the Trump Dilemma"

February 28, 2016: "Three Wins in Three Elections? Not So Fast"

March 17, 2016: "The Brokered Convention, or Why Trump's Chances Look Worse Than Ever"

March 30, 2016: "Glacial Pace of Delegates Slows Lumbering Trump"

April 7, 2016: "A Closer Look at the Fractured Republican Party"

April 27, 2016: "Even If Trump Wins, What Will Independents Think?"

May 7, 2016: "The Coming Clinton Cascade"

May 19, 2016: "Here's What the Brokered Convention That Defies Trump Looks Like"

June 11, 2016: "Behind the Numbers: Delegate Math and the Convention"

July 21, 2016: "Eight Takeaways from Trump's Convention Speech--Closer to Hitler than Reagan"

August 1, 2016: "Clinton Stronger Than Ever as Trump's Popularity Appears Fleeting"

August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984"

August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why."

September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"

September 18, 2016: "Behind the Presidential Debate: A Good Night for Clinton"

September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom"

October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"

October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think"

October 29, 2016: "Clarity from House Effects and Clinton's Decided Silent Majority"

November 9, 2016: "It'll Take Months to Sort Out How Trump Won"

November 22, 2016: "Trump's Reelection Chances Look Dicey

January 20, 2017: 404 Hosting Error

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351701)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 3:16 PM
Author: ~~(> ' ' )>



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364653)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284620)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2016 2:43 AM
Author: \'\'\'\'\'\'\'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532817)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2016 2:46 AM
Author: .,..,....,.....,.,....,,....,......,......,,.,.,.. (steaks)




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532846)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 5th, 2016 5:46 PM
Author: .,..,....,.....,.,....,,....,......,......,,.,.,.. (steaks)


another bump

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30631018)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 26th, 2016 10:16 PM
Author: .,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,. (nobody underperforms like Hillary. TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP)

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30144195)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:00 PM
Author: Larry Wheels



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284612)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 25th, 2018 12:11 AM
Author: '"''"'""""

"October 8, 2016: "O'Malley Clobbers Cuban as Trump's Mistakes Rise"?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37090197)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 10th, 2015 4:49 PM
Author: .;:..;:.;.:.;.,,,..,.:,.;....;,;;;..;,..,




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351706)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 10th, 2015 4:52 PM
Author: hbs bro

1800000000

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351728)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM
Author: Woah Cr friend!

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351742)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 10th, 2015 4:54 PM
Author: pussy stick

Fantastic work ITT

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351744)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 3:08 PM
Author: Julius Caesar\'s Mistress (the poaster formerly known as JCM)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384172)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 10th, 2015 4:55 PM
Author: Cory Booger

FUCK | THIS | KIKE

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351749)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 10th, 2015 4:56 PM
Author: my dog has more potential dates than I do (and he's not even a citizen!)

Poasting in a historic thread.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351753)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM
Author: TannerBoyle

Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.

Not saying that Trump cant win but you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 11th, 2015 7:21 PM
Author: Derek Jeter 3000 Errors



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29359932)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 4:17 PM
Author: \"\'\"\'\"\'\'\"\"\"

Nate Silver's 08 and 12 predictions were accurate and based almost entirely on polling data. his prediction that trump will lose is obviously not based on polling data (which is highly favorable for Trump), but an assumption that someone like Trump can't win. we shouldn't put much value in the non-quantitative political analysis of a poll aggregator.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364985)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 16th, 2015 2:32 PM
Author: cauear

Is he propagandizing or believing what he wishes? Hard to imagine such a shift from such a quantitative guy.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29392387)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 4th, 2016 2:31 PM
Author: Sickly Upset Jew getting HIV test results

Date: December 10th, 2015 5:30 PM

Author: TannerBoyle

Yes Nate Silver totally got 08 and 12 wrong too.

Trump cant win and you guys are setting yourselves up for another UNSKEWING

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29351956)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29519054)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 9:15 AM
Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,..,.,.,:;,......;,..,;.:.,:.::,.




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31854764)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 11th, 2015 7:05 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29359811)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 11th, 2015 7:07 PM
Author: ...,..,,,.....,....



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29359818)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 11th, 2015 7:10 PM
Author: Kiddush Hashem

180 million

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29359849)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 11th, 2015 7:20 PM
Author: Derek Jeter 3000 Errors

November 9th 2016: s.e.g.a. sucking cock at Port Authority for bus fare

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29359926)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM
Author: Low IQ Idiot



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364617)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 25th, 2016 5:40 PM
Author: GOY GUN NUT

Don't edit loser

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677834)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 10th, 2016 1:52 AM
Author: \'\'\'\'\'\'\'\'\"\'\'\'\'




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31866880)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 3:09 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364607)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 3:11 PM
Author: Belisarius



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364621)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 3:13 PM
Author: \"\'\"\'\"\'\'\"\" (the abyss gazes back )

lol

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364630)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 3:47 PM
Author: YAS QUEEN (Marchin Lootin Koon)

March 9

THE ANTHROPOPHAGUS HAS QUITTED HIS DEN

March 10

THE CORSICAN OGRE HAS LANDED AT CAPE JUAN

March 11

THE TIGER HAS ARRIVED AT CAP

March 12

THE MONSTER SLEPT AT GRENOBLE

March 13

THE TYRANT HAS PASSED THOUGH LYONS

March 14

THE USURPER IS DIRECTING HIS STEPS TOWARDS DIJON

March 18

BONAPARTE IS ONLY SIXTY LEAGUES FROM THE CAPITAL

He has been fortunate enough to escape his pursuers

March 19

BONAPARTE IS ADVANCING WITH RAPID STEPS, BUT HE WILL NEVER ENTER PARIS

March 20

NAPOLEON WILL, TOMORROW, BE UNDER OUR RAMPARTS

March 21

THE EMPEROR IS AT FONTAINEBLEAU

March 22

HIS IMPERIAL AND ROYAL MAJESTY arrived yesterday evening at the Tuileries, amid the joyful acclamation of his devoted and faithful subjects

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364829)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 3:06 PM
Author: _@_\'-\'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384155)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 21st, 2015 8:26 PM
Author: Trump Mountain

1 fuckin' 80

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29429271)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 3:51 PM
Author: KamalaSexyFineCleverChocolate ( )




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364847)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 3:55 PM
Author: hank_scorpio

lol, 180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364873)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM
Author: A man, a plan, a canal, wgwag (mance rayder tp)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364887)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 3:58 PM
Author: chandler (retired)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364890)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 3:59 PM
Author: ,.,.,.,,,.,,,,,,,;.,.,..,:.,,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.


Well done.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364896)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 12th, 2015 4:08 PM
Author: Boichester United

Fully nude right now, happened to absent-mindedly stroke myself to a FULL CHUB while reading.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29364933)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 2:14 PM
Author: my dog has more potential dates than I do (and he's not even a citizen!)

OP missed today's ... "Are we in a Trump boom or a Trump bubble?"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29383835)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 16th, 2015 12:20 PM
Author: my dog has more potential dates than I do (and he's not even a citizen!)

And today's:

"The fifth Republican debate ended in a nine-way draw."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29391511)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 2:21 PM
Author: \"\'\'\'\'\"\"\'\"

190

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29383898)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 2:32 PM
Author: Gen. Elba (Space Force Lib-Command) (Legitimate Internet Bureau Specialist)

fuck u for making me laugh

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29383961)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 2:58 PM
Author: I}e $H /-\\ u N

I used to work with a fat, ugly gay man, who was the first person ever to tell me about Nate Silver. I asked him what made this Nate Silver so good, and the homosexual slob said it was that Silver had never been wrong or some shit like that. I said Well that's a pretty good track record.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384107)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 3:10 PM
Author: ..,,,.....,,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,,,..,,.,,...,,..,, (Pederastrian)


180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384183)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 3:12 PM
Author: Wilbur Mercer, the supreme gentleman (Wilbur Mercer)

February 8, 2016: "Trump Will Place Fourth in New Hampshire. Here's Why."

February 10, 2016: "Why Were the Projections So Wrong in New Hampshire?"

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384191)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 3:13 PM
Author: .,.,..,,.,,,..,:,,:....,:::,..,:,.,.:..:.,:.::,.,


You shitcons have been through this with Nate Silver twice before and he has pwned you both times. You guys never learn

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384207)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 3:15 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.

Trump odds, August 2015:

Silver: 2%

Miller: 0%

Enten: -10%

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/podcast-totally-subjective-presidential-odds-early-august-edition/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384225)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-most-shocking-result-in-world-cup-history/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384231)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 3:17 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-we-got-wrong-in-our-2015-uk-general-election-model/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384237)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 3:19 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384254)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 3:20 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-kentuckys-polling-failure/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384262)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 5th, 2016 12:22 PM
Author: \"\'\"\"\'\"\'\'\"\"



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29525662)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 25th, 2016 5:43 PM
Author: GOY GUN NUT

Can't wait to bump this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677869)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 17th, 2016 1:22 PM
Author: chilmata (Reigning xo ROY and SOY)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32165246)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 18th, 2016 10:11 AM
Author: Frank Booth introducing TRUMP after SC primary win (shitty made-in-india armodafinil)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504262)



Reply Favorite

Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM
Author: evan39



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172544)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 12:06 AM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?#livepress-update-23617209

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846270)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM
Author: '""''''"'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846325)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 3:36 AM
Author: Grandpa of the Year

Final Election Update: There’s A Wide Range Of Outcomes, And Most Of Them Come Up Clinton

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/final-election-update-theres-a-wide-range-of-outcomes-and-most-of-them-come-up-clinton/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31851781)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 15th, 2015 3:16 PM
Author: \'\"\"\'\'\'\"\"\'

This is an all time GOAT on XO. This is amazing.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29384232)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 16th, 2015 2:34 PM
Author: Non sequitur ( )

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29392396)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 16th, 2015 2:37 PM
Author: beckersted.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29392414)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 16th, 2015 2:39 PM
Author: hung stud

Incredible

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29392427)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 16th, 2015 11:48 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

Trump Boom or Trump Bubble?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-boom-or-trump-bubble/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29396453)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 17th, 2015 9:22 AM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

Iowa's Women Could Be Trump’s Undoing

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/iowas-women-could-be-donald-trumps-undoing/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29398191)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 18th, 2015 10:03 PM
Author: EVAN39=BALD



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29411300)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM
Author: \'\'\'\'\'\'\'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532836)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 18th, 2015 10:09 PM
Author: young ned of the hill



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29411342)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 21st, 2015 7:06 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

Lindsey Graham Tries To Stop Trump The Only Way He Can — By Quitting

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lindsey-graham-tries-to-stop-trump-the-only-way-he-can-by-quitting/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29428691)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 21st, 2015 7:47 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

"Trump has some weird chinks in his armor"

http://www.wnyc.org/story/nate-silvers-crystal-ball-tells-all-2016/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29429040)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 21st, 2015 8:21 PM
Author: Trump Mountain

1 fuckin' 80

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29429241)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

"micah: Let me channel our vacationing editor-in-chief Nate Silver: What if Trump finishes second or third in Iowa, same in New Hampshire and South Carolina. He chugs along for a while with 15-20 percent of the vote. Or, maybe he quits the race after New Hampshire. Won’t the fact that we spent much of 2015 hyperventilating about Trump seem silly in retrospect?"

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-meaning-of-donald-trump/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29485187)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 30th, 2015 2:44 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

One of the biggest errors I think I made in 2015 was concentrating too much on who would win the Republican nomination and not so much on who would drive the conversation.1 You can see that clearly with Donald Trump (who I still don’t think will win the Republican nomination). Not only did I dismiss Trump’s candidacy on many occasions (here, here, here and here, for example), I was sometimes eager to do so in order to confirm my original belief that he wouldn’t win.

But winning the race and affecting the race are different things. Trump may lose in Iowa, collapse in New Hampshire and disappear from the national stage. If that — or something like it — happens, much of the sound and fury surrounding Trump in 2015 will seem silly in retrospect. But regardless of where Trump ends up once voting starts, he has certainly been the dominant voice in the Republican nomination race so far.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-harry-enten-got-wrong-in-2015/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29485191)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 4th, 2016 2:22 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

This phenomenon may not hold in 2016. Cruz could collapse in Iowa. Christie could fall apart in New Hampshire. And maybe Trump will outperform his polling in both contests. But the gap between their current state and national polls suggests the opposite is more likely.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/to-win-in-iowa-or-new-hampshire-it-may-be-better-to-poll-worse-nationally/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29518987)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 4th, 2016 2:27 PM
Author: Sickly Upset Jew getting HIV test results

flawless OP. uninflated 180.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29519032)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 5th, 2016 12:09 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.

ty for all the updates itt

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29525598)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 25th, 2016 5:45 PM
Author: GOY GUN NUT

Cr. It made a great thread an all time thread

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677890)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 5th, 2016 11:08 PM
Author: EVAN39=BALD (Make the Galaxy Great Again)

From Silver's Twitter:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

That Trump is underperforming in IA and NH relative to national polls is a big deal and a bad sign for him.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531428)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 5th, 2016 11:11 PM
Author: Cash Money is an Army

1800000000000

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531444)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM
Author: teabaggervance



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531475)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 5th, 2016 11:14 PM
Author: The cruel fifth procurator of Bethesda

An historic poast

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531481)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 5th, 2016 11:16 PM
Author: Freddy

180 trillion

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531500)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 5th, 2016 11:17 PM
Author: The cruel fifth procurator of Bethesda

I saw this on the Internet and thought of you guys

http://imgur.com/Fn3p3R6

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531509)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2016 2:45 AM
Author: \'\'\'\'\'\'\'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532843)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2016 4:37 PM
Author: The cruel fifth procurator of Bethesda

Bump to make sure my friends saw this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29535993)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 5th, 2016 11:22 PM
Author: Freddy

No bias there right? What a shitbird.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29531557)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 6th, 2016 2:44 AM
Author: evan39



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29532829)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 7th, 2016 10:51 PM
Author: Trump Mountain



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29546163)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 8th, 2016 4:56 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

“HOW TRUMP WON” blares the headline on this week’s Time magazine cover in 80-point Duplicate Ionic. “Now he just needs the votes,” whispers the small subheadline underneath.

Oh, just that little detail? Trump actually needs people to vote for him? I’ve been encountering a lot of this lately: Coverage implying that Trump’s lead atop the Republican polls (which he’s held since mid-July) is a watershed event, perhaps even tantamount to his having won an election.

These headlines, needless to say, are presumptuous.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29551251)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 8th, 2016 5:05 PM
Author: JFC

180 if not copy paste

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29551314)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 8th, 2016 11:26 PM
Author: Trump Mountain



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29554010)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 9th, 2016 8:16 PM
Author: EVAN39=BALD

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/three-theories-of-donald-trumps-rise/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29559692)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 10th, 2016 5:22 PM
Author: Trump Mountain



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29566112)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 18th, 2016 10:15 AM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29622950)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 19th, 2016 5:30 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

Donald Trump is Sarah Palin 2.0

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29632610)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 21st, 2016 5:51 PM
Author: EVAN39=BALD

looks like even silver has conceded on trump winning the nomination

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/

In a nomination race like the Republican one, you could draw up a list of reasons to be skeptical of any candidate’s chances. Here are some reasons to be skeptical about Ted Cruz’s position in Iowa, for example. Here’s why Marco Rubio’s strategy looks increasingly precarious. There are also good reasons to be skeptical about Donald Trump’s chances of winning the Republican nomination:

His polling in Iowa isn’t great, and he’s probably still the underdog there.

There’s reason to doubt the strength of his ground game, in Iowa and other states.

Trump’s favorable ratings and second-choice numbers are generally inferior to Cruz’s and Rubio’s, meaning that other candidates might benefit more as the field winnows.1

But the reason I’ve been especially skeptical about Trump for most of the election cycle isn’t listed above. Nor is it because I expected Trump to spontaneously combust in national polls. Instead, I was skeptical because I assumed that influential Republicans would do almost anything they could to prevent him from being nominated.

I’m in the midst of working on a long review of the book “The Party Decides,” so we’ll save some of the detail for that forthcoming article. But the textbook on Trump is that he’d be a failure along virtually every dimension that party elites normally consider when choosing a nominee: electability (Trump is extremely unpopular with general election voters); ideological reliability (like Sarah Palin, Trump’s a “maverick”); having traditional qualifications for the job; and so forth. Even if the GOP is mostly in disarray, my assumption was that it would muster whatever strength it had to try to stop Trump.

But so far, the party isn’t doing much to stop Trump. Instead, it’s making such an effort against Cruz. Consider:

The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, said he wanted Cruz defeated.

Bob Dole warned of “cataclysmic” losses if Cruz was the nominee, and said Trump would fare better.

Mitch McConnell and other Republicans senators have been decidedly unhelpful to Cruz when discussing his constitutional eligibility to be president.

An anti-Cruz PAC has formed, with plans to run advertisements in Iowa. (By contrast, no PAC advertising has run against Trump so far in January.)

You can find lots of other examples like these. It’s the type of coordinated, multifront action that seems right out of the “The Party Decides.” If, like me, you expected something like this to happen to Trump instead of Cruz, you have to revisit your assumptions. Thus, I’m now much less skeptical of Trump’s chances of becoming the nominee.

Can we take this a step farther, in fact? Can we say that the party has decided … for Trump?

I’ve seen some headlines to that effect, but they’re premature and possibly wrong. So far, the GOP’s actions are conspicuously anti-Cruz more than they are pro-Trump. For example, although former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin just endorsed Trump, no current Republican governors or members of Congress have.

Instead, it may be that Republicans think of Cruz as the more immediate threat, and then plan to turn around and attack Trump later. But that’s a high-degree-of-difficulty caper to pull off. For one thing, Trump, who’s in a much better position in the polls than Cruz in states after Iowa, could rack up several wins in a row if he takes the Hawkeye State.

Just as important, there are few signs that Republicans have much of a strategy for whom to back apart from Trump. Four “establishment lane” candidates — Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Rubio — are tightly packed in New Hampshire polls. That could potentially change before New Hampshire votes because of tactical voting.2 And whichever of these candidates perform worst in the early states will probably drop out.

But Republican party elites seem indifferent among these four candidates, when in my view some are more capable than others of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz:

Rubio would seem to have the best shot. He’s easily the most conservative of the four, has the best favorability ratings and can make perhaps the best electability argument. His ground game may not be very good, but he has a decent amount of cash on hand.

Bush and Christie probably rank next, in some order. It’s hard to imagine Republican voters coming all the way around to the patrician Bush after flirting with bad-boy Trump for so long — especially when Bush’s favorability numbers with Republican voters are in the tank. But remember that those dalliances with Trump are hypothetical, only contemplated in polls and not yet actuated with votes. Perhaps the Republican electorate that shows up to vote is more like the 2012 version, which supported Mitt Romney. It’s a long shot, but if it happens, Bush will have plenty of money and organization to extend the race.

If the GOP electorate is in an angrier mood, then Christie’s personality overlaps the most with Trump’s. He’s a good debater, and his favorability ratings are on the upswing, although still just middling. But Christie entered the race with a lot of baggage that will receive more scrutiny if he surges in the polls. He also doesn’t have much of an organization beyond New Hampshire.

Kasich’s outlook seems the worst of the four, combining Bush’s lack of appeal to conservatives with Christie’s lack of organization beyond New Hampshire. The one qualification to this is that Kasich has a more conservative track record than he lets on.3

So if I were ranking the four establishment candidates’ chances of eventually defeating Trump and Cruz, I’d put Rubio first and Kasich last. But if I were ranking them in terms of who seems to have the most momentum right now, the order would be just the opposite. Kasich has gained 3 or 4 percentage points in New Hampshire polls over the past month, while Rubio has declined slightly in New Hampshire and national polls, and his once-steady flow of endorsements has turned into a trickle.

These differences might seem pretty minor — there’s room for near-daily momentum shifts before New Hampshire votes. Obviously, it’s also possible that Republicans’ efforts to stop Cruz in Iowa will backfire.

Things are lining up better for Trump than I would have imagined, however. It’s not his continued presence in the race that surprises me so much as the lack of a concerted effort to stop him.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29649247)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 25th, 2016 5:26 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677719)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 25th, 2016 5:42 PM
Author: go back to africa (So fierce!)

180000000000000000000000000000000000000

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677863)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 25th, 2016 5:48 PM
Author: GOY GUN NUT

You're a democratic, remember?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29677913)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 9th, 2016 9:02 PM
Author: go back to africa (TRUMP)

No way! 100% TRUMPMO

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29791782)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 6th, 2016 10:13 AM
Author: JFC

(2-time shitbama voter)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31345881)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM
Author: \'\'\'\'\'\'\'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37162047)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 29th, 2016 4:25 PM
Author: .,,.....,...,.,:,,:....,:::.,.,.:,...:..:.,:.::.,




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29708433)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 1st, 2016 11:04 AM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29727124)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 1st, 2016 11:21 AM
Author: http://i.imgur.com/GzDww8M.jpg




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29727197)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 1st, 2016 9:47 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29732588)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 7th, 2016 9:49 AM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29771453)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 9th, 2016 8:59 PM
Author: Cash Money is an Army



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29791735)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 9th, 2016 9:00 PM
Author: acp (acp)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29791763)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2016 7:55 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29877406)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2016 7:57 PM
Author: Mr. Bianca Andreescu

OK man, can you tell us how you did this? (Not how you predicted it, but how you wrote it so brilliantly.)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29877434)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 24th, 2016 8:06 AM
Author: Frank Booth introducing TRUMP after SC primary win (DIE LIBS)

PORT | AUTHORITY | BUSFARE

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29903568)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 24th, 2016 8:14 AM
Author: the french inhaler (Dr. Thunder)

The OP is XO at its peak brilliance.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29903615)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 27th, 2016 6:57 PM
Author: ImanageCat



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29931652)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 9th, 2016 12:52 AM
Author: \"\'\'\'\'\"\"\'\"



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30015868)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2016 9:44 PM
Author: Dr. Cool



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30066562)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2016 9:55 PM
Author: Woah Cr friend!



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30066681)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 16th, 2016 11:52 AM
Author: Gen. Elba (Space Force Lib-Command) (Legitimate Internet Bureau Specialist)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30070592)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 24th, 2016 8:18 AM
Author: [account temporarily suspended] (artist formerly known as prince)

hosting error... LOL

this is better than any snl sketch in the last 5 to 10 years.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29903628)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 24th, 2016 10:18 AM
Author: .,.,.,.,.,,,...,,..,,..,,..,,.,.,,..,




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29904083)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 21st, 2016 9:42 AM
Author: Gen. Elba (Space Force Lib-Command) (MAKE WAKANDA GREAT AGAIN)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30987707)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 24th, 2016 10:16 AM
Author: .,.,,..,..,.,.,:,,:,...,::,...,:,.,.:....:.,:.::,.




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29904074)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 27th, 2016 6:54 PM
Author: Woah Cr friend!



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29931637)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 2nd, 2016 9:43 AM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29960115)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 4th, 2016 1:38 AM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#29976826)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 9th, 2016 12:44 AM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30015799)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 9th, 2016 12:55 AM
Author: Cash Money is an Army

yeah anyone who wants to win money on predictit markets should just consult this turtle shell oracle

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30015891)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2016 8:46 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30065629)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2016 9:05 PM
Author: Frank Booth introducing TRUMP after SC primary win (toxic message board / ,.;,.;,;.,;.,;;,;.;,;.,.;,.;,;.;,.;,.;,.;)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30065970)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2016 9:23 PM
Author: Go back



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30066291)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2016 9:43 PM
Author: David_Ricardo

truly 180 thread

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30066549)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 16th, 2016 11:48 AM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

It's Still Not Clear Donald Trump Will Get a Majority of Delegates

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-still-not-clear-that-donald-trump-will-get-a-majority-of-delegates/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30070566)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 16th, 2016 11:54 AM
Author: my dog has more potential dates than I do (winning the POTUSship one YUGE rally at a time)

March is very accurate.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30070601)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 23rd, 2016 10:49 AM
Author: '""''''"'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30119676)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 23rd, 2016 9:30 AM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30119337)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 26th, 2016 11:24 AM
Author: A man, a plan, a canal, wgwag (mance rayder tp)

http://imgur.com/ZVbDMXh

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30140474)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 26th, 2016 11:30 AM
Author: Benevolent Screed

Lol,holy Fuck

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30140513)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 26th, 2016 10:14 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30144174)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 28th, 2016 10:12 AM
Author: \"\'\"\"\'\"\'\'\"\"

jesus. . .

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30151942)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 28th, 2016 10:20 AM
Author: '""''''"'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30151965)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 28th, 2016 10:23 AM
Author: hbs bro



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30151975)



Reply Favorite

Date: August 12th, 2016 9:04 PM
Author: evan39



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172540)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 5th, 2018 10:20 AM
Author: \'\'\'\'\'\'\'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37162050)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 28th, 2016 9:47 AM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

"What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like"

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-two-front-war-to-deny-trump-the-nomination-could-look-like/

"Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November"

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-will-have-a-hard-time-turning-blue-states-red-in-november/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30151872)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 29th, 2016 2:26 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

"Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan"

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30160651)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 29th, 2016 2:32 PM
Author: PrestigeWhore

lol

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30160689)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 29th, 2016 4:59 PM
Author: PrestigeWhore

"One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women"

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-sexism-women-2016-election/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30161569)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 29th, 2016 5:14 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30161654)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 29th, 2016 8:54 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/714977961099862016

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30163086)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 1st, 2016 2:54 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-probably-first-ballot-or-bust-for-donald-trump-at-the-gop-convention/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30183235)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 4th, 2016 7:13 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

"Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump"

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wisconsin-could-be-trouble-for-trump/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30201806)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 15th, 2016 10:16 AM
Author: PrestigeWhore

interestingly the Karl Rove WSJ opinion headlines are almost as desperate:

http://topics.wsj.com/person/R/karl-rove/5686

Articles by Karl Rove

Vanity Will Be The Donald’s Undoing

April 13, 2016 06:04 p.m.

Trump thinks he is so rich, famous and athletic that he can skip a real campaign.

The Not-Trump GOP Rises

April 6, 2016 07:16 p.m.

The delegate math is getting hard, and New York may not be the lifeline Trump needs.

An Ugly General Election Takes Shape

March 30, 2016 07:12 p.m.

Hillary’s super PAC readies an anti-Trump onslaught. She will be a ripe target too.

Don’t Coddle Donald Trump

March 23, 2016 07:22 p.m.

A nominee needs a majority. Abraham Lincoln played by that rule—so can the New York businessman.

How Trump Can Raise His Game

March 16, 2016 07:03 p.m.

A few bits of advice for The Donald: study up, change your tone and focus on Hillary.

The Polls Trump Hasn’t Won

March 9, 2016 06:32 p.m.

He says that he will beat Hillary, yet guess who is the only GOP contender trailing her.

A Big Push for Flawed Front-Runners

March 2, 2016 06:39 p.m.

Bernie could cause trouble for Hillary at the convention. And Trump is no ‘unifier.’

The Donald Doesn’t Have a Lock—Yet

February 24, 2016 07:22 p.m.

There is still time for a non-Trump majority to coalesce around a single candidate.

James Taranto: ‘I Love the Poorly Educated!’

Trump Didn’t Oppose the Iraq War

February 17, 2016 06:33 p.m.

There’s no record of his clear opposition before March 2003, despite his claims

GOP Infighters Need to Focus on Trump

February 10, 2016 06:48 p.m.

The four mainstream candidates are only wasting time if they go after each other.

How Trump Blew an Easy Win

February 3, 2016 06:33 p.m.

He acted like the traditional rules didn’t apply. This race could go to the convention.

Trump Ducks an Iowa Opportunity

January 27, 2016 06:56 p.m.

The Donald’s refusal to debate could blow his lead. How can he take on Hillary?

Hillary’s Stumbling Cakewalk

January 20, 2016 07:31 p.m.

Nothing’s working, so now Clinton has come up with a four-step Beat Bernie strategy.

The GOP’s Chase for Undecided Iowans

January 13, 2016 06:55 p.m.

At this point in 2012, Rick Santorum—who won the caucuses—sat sadly at 6% support.

My Crystal-Ball Score—Plus 2016 Predictions

January 6, 2016 06:57 p.m.

Clinton Is Already Vowing to Overreach

December 16, 2015 06:06 p.m.

Remember her pledge in 2007 to ‘rein in the presidency’? Neither does she.

Trump Is the Democrats’ Dream Nominee

December 9, 2015 06:48 p.m.

He could win the primaries but would get creamed in the presidential election.

The GOP Needs Presidential Coattails

December 2, 2015 06:53 p.m.

A weak ticket could hurt the party in purple states—and lose the Senate.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30279040)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 15th, 2016 10:47 AM
Author: .... -^^,--,~....



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30279158)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 19th, 2016 9:44 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30307876)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 20th, 2016 11:03 AM
Author: Indubitably!



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30310760)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 20th, 2016 11:13 AM
Author: Muscadine wine

I love this thread.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30310807)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 24th, 2016 1:07 AM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30335375)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 25th, 2016 10:37 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30346848)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2016 9:29 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30353572)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2016 9:31 PM
Author: Surprisingly weak dap from a guy w brolic forearms



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30353587)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 30th, 2016 2:23 PM
Author: AssFaggot



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30378951)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 1st, 2016 6:05 PM
Author: ..,..,,,,...,...,,,.
Subject: A List of a Year of the Actual 538 Headlines

JUN 16, 2015

Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate, In One Chart

JUL 16, 2015

Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously

JUL 29, 2015

Donald Trump Is The Nickelback Of GOP Candidates

AUG 7, 2015

Donald Trump Won’t Win A War Against Fox News

AUG 7, 2015

Did The Debate Hurt Or Help Trump? Watch His Favorability Numbers.

AUG 11, 2015

Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls — And Losing The Nomination

AUG 14, 2015

Candidates In Donald Trump’s Position Have A Terrible Track Record

AUG 31, 2015

A Ben Carson Surge May Test Trump

SEP 2, 2015

Keep Calm And Ignore The 2016 ‘Game Changers’

SEP 8, 2015

If Donald Trump Can Win The Nomination, Ben Carson Could Too

SEP 17, 2015

We’re Bullish On Fiorina And (Still) Bearish On Trump After The Debate

SEP 24, 2015

Was The Second Debate The Beginning Of The End For Donald Trump?

OCT 20, 2015

Donald Trump Is Doomed And/Or Invincible

OCT 26, 2015

Can Ben Carson Really Take Out Donald Trump?

NOV 4, 2015

The GOP’s Primary Rules Might Doom Carson, Cruz And Trump

NOV 23, 2015

Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls

DEC 1, 2015

The Future Of Polling May Depend On Donald Trump’s Fate

DEC 2, 2015

Big Phony And Loser Nate Silver Can’t Even See Donald Trump Is A Winner! What A Joke!

DEC 4, 2015

Donald Trump Won’t Win Just Because More Voters Are Paying Attention

DEC 15, 2015

Trump Boom Or Trump Bubble?

DEC 17, 2015

Iowa’s Women Could Be Donald Trump’s Undoing

JAN 18, 2016

Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters

JAN 19, 2016

Beware A GOP Calendar Front-Loaded With States Friendly To Trump And Cruz

JAN 19, 2016

Donald Trump Is Sarah Palin 2.0

JAN 21, 2016

One Big Reason To Be Less Skeptical Of Trump

JAN 26, 2016

Does Donald Trump Need To Win Iowa?

JAN 27, 2016

Sorry, Bloomberg: Trump Is Already A Third-Party Candidate

JAN 31, 2016

Donald Trump’s Support In Iowa Is Narrow But Deep

FEB 2, 2016

Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan

FEB 3, 2016

Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much

FEB 4, 2016

Trump Still Leads In New Hampshire, But The Ride Could Be Wild

FEB 5, 2016

Donald Trump Is Losing Ground On Google

FEB 9, 2016

Donald Trump Will Probably Win New Hampshire

FEB 10, 2016

John Kasich Is The Anti-Trump

FEB 17, 2016

Does Donald Trump Have A Ceiling?

FEB 18, 2016

The Pope Is Way More Popular Than Donald Trump

FEB 21, 2016

Trump Optimists And Trump Skeptics Are About To Go To War

FEB 22, 2016

Trump’s South Carolina Win Shows Evangelicals Aren’t Necessarily Voting On Their Faith

FEB 23, 2016

Nevada May Show Trump Can Win Even With Low Turnout

FEB 24, 2016

Nevada Was Great For Donald Trump, Bad For Ted Cruz

FEB 24, 2016

Republicans’ Last-Ditch Hope To Stop Donald Trump

FEB 26, 2016

Marco Rubio Finally Steps Up As The Anti-Trump

MAR 1, 2016

Super Tuesday Could Be Historic For Trump

MAR 2, 2016

Can Republicans Still Take The Nomination Away From Trump?

MAR 2, 2016

Donald Trump Is Just Barely On Track To Win The GOP Nomination

MAR 3, 2016

Republican Voters Kind Of Hate All Their Choices

MAR 4, 2016

Kasich May Have Cut Off Rubio’s Path To The Nomination

MAR 7, 2016

Donald Trump Would Be Easy To Stop Under Democratic Rules

MAR 7, 2016

Bloomberg Might Have Produced President Trump

MAR 8, 2016

Could Michigan Change The Course Of The GOP Race?

MAR 10, 2016

Ted Cruz Might Still Be Able To Stop Donald Trump

MAR 11, 2016

Don’t Sleep On Illinois And Missouri — They Could Help Make Trump Unstoppable

MAR 15, 2016

Trump Attack Ads Are Finally Popping Up, But They Might Be Too Late

MAR 16, 2016

It’s Still Not Clear That Donald Trump Will Get A Majority Of Delegates

MAR 16, 2016

Trump Voters’ Aversion To Foreign-Sounding Names Cost Him Delegates

MAR 21, 2016

Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention?

MAR 22, 2016

The Most Important States On Trump’s Path To 1,237 Delegates

MAR 23, 2016

Why Donald Trump?

MAR 23, 2016

How Far Jeb Bush Is Going To Stop Trump

MAR 25, 2016

Trump Will Have A Hard Time Turning Blue States Red In November

MAR 25, 2016

What A Two-Front War To Deny Trump The Nomination Could Look Like

MAR 29, 2016

Donald Trump Is No Ronald Reagan

MAR 29, 2016

One Weird Trick To Lose The 2016 Election: Alienate Women

MAR 30, 2016

How Trump Hacked The Media

MAR 31, 2016

Wisconsin Could Be Trouble For Trump

APR 1, 2016

It’s Probably First Ballot Or Bust For Donald Trump At The GOP Convention

APR 5, 2016

The GOP’s Wacky Delegate Rules Are Helping Trump

APR 7, 2016

Trump’s New Magic Number Is 40 Percent Of The Vote

APR 8, 2016

Trump’s Support Would Be Easier To Explain With Better Polling

APR 11, 2016

Trump Is The Weakest GOP Front-Runner In The Modern Era

APR 11, 2016

Trump Made A Mistake By Overlooking Colorado

APR 11, 2016

Elections Podcast: Is Trump Blowing It?

APR 14, 2016

Trump’s Right That The GOP Primary Is Unfair — It Favors Him

APR 18, 2016

New York City’s Jewish Vote Might Win Cruz Or Kasich Key Delegates

APR 23, 2016

Trump’s ‘System Is Rigged’ Argument Is Working

APR 25, 2016

Trump Is Probably Going To Run Over Cruz And Kasich In The Northeast

APR 25, 2016

Will The Kasich-Cruz Alliance Work?

APR 27, 2016

It’s Trump’s Nomination To Lose*

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30385550)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 7th, 2016 3:27 PM
Author: ..,..,,,,...,...,,,.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31825048)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 2nd, 2016 7:16 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30392947)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 2nd, 2016 8:17 PM
Author: '""''''"'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30393360)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:26 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

The Mythology Of Trump’s ‘Working Class’ Support

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-mythology-of-trumps-working-class-support/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30398673)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 3rd, 2016 3:35 PM
Author: ............;;....,,;;..,;,;;;;...;;;;;;.,......


holy shit

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30398720)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 3rd, 2016 9:15 PM
Author: T DOG



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30402170)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 4th, 2016 9:04 AM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30405223)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 4th, 2016 9:33 AM
Author: JFC

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30405346)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 5th, 2016 9:23 AM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

Candidates who beat pundits' expectations in the primaries haven't done particularly well in the general election.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/728211438427381760

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30412509)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 5th, 2016 11:02 AM
Author: chandler (retired)

Lol every response is "how about Obama?" What a hack

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30412976)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 5th, 2016 10:40 AM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.

LOL 12 years in this place and I think I found my magnum opus, fml

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30412844)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 5th, 2016 11:05 AM
Author: .,.,.,.,.,,,...,,..,,..,,..,,.,.,,..,


Yeah bro. You should mic drop and walk the fuck away.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30412994)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM
Author: Belisarius

This should be preserved for posterity in a library somewhere. I wish Nate Silver could see this.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504267)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 18th, 2016 10:03 AM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504223)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 18th, 2016 10:13 AM
Author: Frank Booth introducing TRUMP after SC primary win (shitty made-in-india armodafinil)

In no way will your answer affect my conviction that this is an all-time great first ballot HOF poast, I'm just curious: How long did it take you to put this masterstroke together?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504268)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 18th, 2016 10:14 AM
Author: Belisarius

cr. We need to get the entire story of his creative process down for future scholars to learn from.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30504274)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 29th, 2016 4:16 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.

lol I find something new in this thread every time I read it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30583536)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 20th, 2016 10:12 AM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30746085)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 29th, 2016 1:03 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

Hillary Clinton has a nearly 80 percent chance of winning the White House in November, FiveThirtyEight polling guru Nate Silver predicted Wednesday.

FiveThirtyEight projected Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the general election against Donald Trump, who has just a 20 percent chance of succeeding President Barack Obama in the Oval Office.

“Here’s how to think about it: We’re kind of at halftime of the election right now, and she’s taking a seven-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime,” Silver told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos on “Good Morning America.” “There’s a lot of football left to be played, but she’s ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll.”

Indeed, a Ballotpedia survey of seven swing states released Wednesday shows the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee sweeping Trump in Iowa, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia by margins ranging from 4 to 17 percentage points.

Silver, who correctly forecast 49 out of 50 states in 2008 and every state in 2012, noted that both camps “have a lot of room to grow,” but no candidate has blown a lead as large as Clinton’s advantage over Trump in nearly 30 years, when former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis lost to George H.W. Bush despite maintaining a large lead coming out of the spring and summer.

“It’s been a crazy year, politically,” Silver said, adding that more states, particularly red states, are in play in 2016 than in previous elections. “For example, Arizona looks like a toss-up. Maybe Georgia. Maybe Missouri, North Carolina again.”

“Likewise,” Silver continued, “if Trump gains ground on Clinton then maybe a state like Maine — used to be a swing state, not so recently” — could be in play, too.

Silver also defended his August forecast that gave the billionaire businessman a 2 percent chance to win the GOP nomination.

“That wasn’t based on looking at polls. Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” Silver said. “And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/nate-silver-who-will-be-president-prediction-224931

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30817368)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 14th, 2016 10:24 AM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-when-to-freak-out-about-shocking-new-polls/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30924907)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 15th, 2016 2:16 AM
Author: @therealpeternorth



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30933127)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 15th, 2016 2:47 AM
Author: evan39



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30933205)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 17th, 2016 10:12 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30956384)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 17th, 2016 10:13 PM
Author: JFC

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30956397)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 21st, 2016 9:33 AM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-convention-is-flirting-with-disaster/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30987656)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:38 AM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30999290)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 22nd, 2016 10:39 AM
Author: boner police (daddy's gotta tinkle)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#30999301)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 23rd, 2016 2:41 AM
Author: .,.,,.,..,.,.,:,,:,,.,:.,.:,...,:,.,.:...:.,:.::,.


Wow jesua

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31006876)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 24th, 2016 10:48 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31020363)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 25th, 2016 11:00 AM
Author: {(o)}

Nate Silver actually would find this hilarious, too.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31022942)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 25th, 2016 12:00 PM
Author: PrestigeWhore

amazing how accurate this is

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31023351)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 27th, 2016 2:30 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.

Wish I could profit off this gift.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31043518)



Reply Favorite

Date: August 5th, 2016 1:34 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31113817)



Reply Favorite

Date: August 9th, 2016 8:10 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/

Let’s not bury the lead: Clinton is polling really well right now, and if you held an election today, she’d probably win in a landslide, possibly including states such as Georgia and Arizona along with most or all of the traditional swing states.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31146587)



Reply Favorite

Date: August 12th, 2016 9:03 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.

THEN: "August 17, 2016: "Clinton Machine Gears Up For Largest Electoral Landslide Since 1984"

NOW: August 12, 2016: "What A Clinton Landslide Would Look Like"

"That would work out to 471 electoral votes, to 67 for Trump, which would be fairly typical for a win of that magnitude. Dwight D. Eisenhower won 457 electoral votes when beating Adlai Stevenson by 15 points in 1956, for example. And Franklin D. Roosevelt won 472 electoral votes in 1932, in an 18-point win against Herbert Hoover. Clinton would be a ways short of Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984, however."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-clinton-landslide-would-look-like/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172533)



Reply Favorite

Date: August 12th, 2016 9:06 PM
Author: JFC

holy shit did u edit

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172565)



Reply Favorite

Date: August 12th, 2016 9:07 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.

I never edit brother unless I am deleting a person's poasts.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172569)



Reply Favorite

Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM
Author: Body Parts and Parcel Trucks

LOL if true. I believe you, bro.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31172627)



Reply Favorite

Date: August 30th, 2016 12:45 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.

THEN: August 30, 2016: "Trump's Rise in the Polls Is False. Here's Why."

NOW: August 30, 2016: "So, not clear that Trump is improving, so much as Clinton is declining. People maybe jumped the gun in declaring her convention bounce over." http://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/770653615916810240

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31298094)



Reply Favorite

Date: August 30th, 2016 1:26 PM
Author: JFC

180

i want 2 believe

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31298330)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 6th, 2016 10:12 AM
Author: JFC

lol

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31345879)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 13th, 2016 5:33 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

Polls Show Trump's Momentum Has Stalled

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/polls-show-trumps-momentum-has-stalled-for-now/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31399652)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 14th, 2016 9:41 AM
Author: PrestigeWhore (the prancing linguist)

ho lee fuk this is getting good

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31404088)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 14th, 2016 9:43 AM
Author: KamalaSexyFineCleverChocolate ( )


Wow. Nailed July, August and early September

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31404101)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 15th, 2016 9:58 AM
Author: SOYLENT trump is president (retired)

September 15, 2016

"How Trump Could Win The White House While Losing The Popular Vote"

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-trump-could-win-the-white-house-while-losing-the-popular-vote/

RUH ROH LIBS

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31412268)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 15th, 2016 1:34 PM
Author: lawman8

September 6, 2016: "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: They Don't Tell the Whole Story"

Compare OP's headline to this actual Salon headline today:

Poll panic is here! Yes, Trump is closing, but here’s why it’s meaningless

http://www.salon.com/2016/09/15/its-already-happening-yes-trump-is-closing-in-on-the-polls-but-heres-why-thats-meaningless/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31413892)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 15th, 2016 1:38 PM
Author: .,..,....,.....,.,....,,....,......,......,,.,.,..


god this is good

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31413930)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 15th, 2016 1:40 PM
Author: DrakeMallard (Deplorable, Irredeemable Duck)

XO never not on point

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31413938)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 15th, 2016 1:41 PM
Author: pepito



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31413954)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 19th, 2016 1:18 PM
Author: ,.....,.,..,.,.,,...,,.,.,.....,,.,




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31443744)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 19th, 2016 1:22 PM
Author: ,.....,.,..,.,.,,...,,.,.,.....,,.,


The AutoAdmit account should tweet this at nate silver.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31443779)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM
Author: JFC

let's not cross the swords

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503555)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 24th, 2016 5:16 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31482152)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 27th, 2016 7:22 AM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-won-the-debate-which-means-shes-likely-to-gain-in-the-polls/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503552)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM
Author: JFC



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503554)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 27th, 2016 7:23 AM
Author: my dog has more potential dates than I do (MAGA!)

This is arguably the greatest, most prescient poast in XO history.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31503556)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 8th, 2016 8:43 PM
Author: \'\'\"\'\"\"\"\'\'\'\'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31592208)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 28th, 2016 9:54 AM
Author: PrestigeWhore (the prancing linguist)

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/

vs

September 30, 2016: "Why Are Polls Bucking the Media's Conventional Wisdom"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31511634)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 28th, 2016 9:58 AM
Author: KamalaSexyFineCleverChocolate ( )




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31511665)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 28th, 2016 10:00 AM
Author: JFC

180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31511673)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 28th, 2016 11:28 AM
Author: Muscadine wine

This shit is turning out to be so accurate that I'm starting to suspect OP is a time traveling alien.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31512070)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 28th, 2016 2:16 PM
Author: .... -^^,--,~....



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31513385)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 8th, 2016 8:41 PM
Author: 404 poster not found (ohnoes)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31592192)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM
Author: JFC

hey, this weekend wasnt in the script

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594952)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 9th, 2016 9:29 AM
Author: .,.,...,.,,,.,:.,:,...,:::..,.,;.,..,:..:.,.,::.,,


Trump's mistakes rise was probably a headline somewhere

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594953)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM
Author: JFC

doesnt fit. a revelation of something he said 11 years ago isn't a mistake it's an october surprise

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594954)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 9th, 2016 9:32 AM
Author: ;:;;;:::....(:::

half the coverage treats it as if he said it just yesterday

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31594956)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 10th, 2016 10:56 AM
Author: PrestigeWhore (the prancing linguist)

nate silver simultaneously claiming that all "insta polls are garbage" while citing this poll as a good news for HILLARY:

It’s not clear that voters judge debates in the same way, however. A CNN poll of debate watchers found that even though most voters thought Trump exceeded expectations, 57 percent of them nevertheless declared Clinton the winner, compared with 34 percent for Trump. A YouGov poll of debate watchers showed a much closer outcome, but with Clinton also winning, 47 percent to 42 percent.

These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/

meanwhile:

Big Surprise: Trump Won Instant Junk Polls About Who Won The Debate

As Harry said, the instant online opt-in junk polls — call them troll polls, faux polls, clickers, or your favorite term for them — should be ignored as indicators of who really won. And after Trump touted his win in these junk polls after the first debate, and was widely ridiculed for it, he didn’t cite the junk polls that showed Pence beating Kaine in the vice-presidential debate. Nonetheless, Trump supporters appear to still be flooding these things. Trump’s getting 77 percent in a Heavy.com junk poll asking who won tonight’s debate, an identical 77 percent in Fox 5 San Diego’s and 90 percent in Drudge Report’s.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/second-presidential-debate-election-2016/



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31606849)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 30th, 2016 10:02 PM
Author: {(o)} (vagmo)

close enough.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31763265)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 1st, 2016 12:35 AM
Author: evan39

Almost there

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31772625)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 1st, 2016 4:55 PM
Author: DrakeMallard (Make Duckburg Great Again)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31777531)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 2nd, 2016 8:24 AM
Author: \"\"\'\"\'\"\"\'\'\'\'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31782180)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 2nd, 2016 6:59 PM
Author: ..,,,.....,,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,,,..,,.,,...,,..,, (Pederas†rian)




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31786832)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 7th, 2016 3:23 PM
Author: PrestigeWhore (the prancing linguist)

prob the last time we can bump this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31825019)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM
Author: 1080

You say that but.....

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31833310)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 8th, 2016 11:56 AM
Author: PrestigeWhore (the prancing linguist)

true, the shitlibs can bump all they like

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31833315)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 8th, 2016 7:59 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.

ty for your sympathy bump.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31839758)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 8th, 2016 10:53 PM
Author: PrestigeWhore (the prancing linguist)

ho lee fuk

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31844114)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 8th, 2016 10:04 PM
Author: \'\'\"\'\'\'\"\'\'\'\"\'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31842891)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 8th, 2016 10:05 PM
Author: nervous reliever(s) who get shellacked (Lamarcus)

Tbf, he was the one that was the most bullish on Trump

LJL at Sam Wang who called 99% for Hillary

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31842921)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 8th, 2016 10:33 PM
Author: http://i.imgur.com/GzDww8M.jpg




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31843660)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 8th, 2016 10:59 PM
Author: ,.....,.,..,.,.,,...,,.,.,.....,,.,




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31844292)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 8th, 2016 11:10 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31844674)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 12:07 AM
Author: Mark Wohlers



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846281)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 12:08 AM
Author: SOYLENT trump is president (retired)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846326)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 12:12 AM
Author: nihilist star wars



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31846448)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 1:22 AM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848552)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 1:25 AM
Author: DrakeMallard (Make Duckburg Great Again)

GOAT POTUS THREAD. ALL TIME HALL OF FAME

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848608)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 1:28 AM
Author: Mark Wohlers



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848693)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 1:30 AM
Author: {(o)} (vagmo)

it really deserves national attention

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848755)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 1:31 AM
Author: chandler (retired)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848775)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 3rd, 2016 2:00 AM
Author: Driving back in silence from retirement home



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32044462)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM
Author: \'\'\'\'\'\'\'\'\"\'\'\'\' (colt)




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076291)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM
Author: chilmata (Reigning xo ROY and SOY)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32165256)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 1:29 AM
Author: ,.,...,..,.,.,:,,:,.,.,:::,..,..,:,.,.:.:.,:.::,.




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31848725)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 1:54 AM
Author: The Buzz Aldrin Spacelaw Fellowship

Historic.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31849301)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 2:03 AM
Author: The Molochian Pimp's Assassination



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31849447)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 2:07 AM
Author: Drunkard (My commonwealth)

180

The anti-Rudolph.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31849573)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 3:37 AM
Author: Driving back in silence from retirement home



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31851790)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 5:12 AM
Author: evan39



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31852918)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31854576)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 9:03 AM
Author: Belisarius

this cannot be bumped enough.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31854584)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 9:52 AM
Author: JFC



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31855383)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 9:59 AM
Author: .......,,,,,,,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31855482)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 6:51 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863076)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM
Author: Terence McKenna



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863082)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 6:52 PM
Author: The DJT USSF INTERGALACTIC JUGGERNAUT



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863093)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 7:08 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.

November 9, 2016: "We’ll have more to say about the polling in the coming days. But to a first approximation, people are probably giving the polls a little bit too much blame."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-difference-2-percentage-points-makes/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863273)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 9th, 2016 7:26 PM
Author: pussy stick

you're fucking nostradamus

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31863503)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 10th, 2016 1:58 AM
Author: young ned of the hill (ggtp)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31866924)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 10th, 2016 9:37 AM
Author: go back to africa (JFC)

Here we go...

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31868448)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 10th, 2016 1:48 AM
Author: .,..,....,.....,.,....,,....,......,......,,.,.,..


bumped

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31866864)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 10th, 2016 2:08 AM
Author: \'\'\"\'\"\"\"\'\'\'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31867005)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 10th, 2016 9:13 AM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.

sorry I got it wrong, this is CNN, November 10, 2016: "'The polls clearly got it wrong': The autopsy will take months"

http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/10/media/election-day-polls/index.html

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31868225)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 10th, 2016 9:15 AM
Author: PrestigeWhore (the prancing linguist)

ROFL

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31868235)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 10th, 2016 9:49 AM
Author: Mr. Bianca Andreescu



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31868543)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 14th, 2016 4:42 PM
Author: ,.....,.,..,.,.,,...,,.,.,.....,,.,




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31907692)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 14th, 2016 4:43 PM
Author: eraserhead

They're all heads attached to the same (((monster)))

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31907697)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2016 6:17 PM
Author: ,.,,,,....,,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,,.,.,.


Extraordinary prescience itt

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32055646)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 17th, 2016 1:23 PM
Author: chilmata (Reigning xo ROY and SOY)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32165261)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 25th, 2016 12:22 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#31989410)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 3rd, 2016 1:51 AM
Author: Piglet



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32044435)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2016 6:15 PM
Author: ;:;;;:::....(:::

GEPETTO'S CHECKMARK!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32055631)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 7th, 2016 8:40 AM
Author: Get Thee To The Rapery

https://i.sli.mg/nElXDz.jpg

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076268)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 7th, 2016 8:45 AM
Author: .,..,....,.....,.,....,,....,......,......,,.,.,..




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076292)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 7th, 2016 8:56 AM
Author: Piglet



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32076345)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 2nd, 2017 7:58 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284600)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:02 PM
Author: :D (5000 mcg B12/wk, 150 mcg iodine/day, 250 mg algal DHA-EPA/day)

October 16, 2016: "Are Early Votes for Trump a Predictor? Not As Much As You May Think"

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-read-too-much-into-early-voting/

OCT 27, 2016 AT 11:29 AM

Don’t Read Too Much Into Early Voting

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284625)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:03 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.

ty, this & your "turning points" are PEAK XO.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284631)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM
Author: :D (5000 mcg B12/wk, 150 mcg iodine/day, 250 mg algal DHA-EPA/day)

ITT we speculate who created Donald Trump

also a classic

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284647)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 2nd, 2017 8:06 PM
Author: .,..,....,.....,.,....,,....,......,......,,.,.,..


truly magnificent

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32284649)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 16th, 2017 10:57 PM
Author: '""''''"'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32389095)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 20th, 2017 12:01 AM
Author: :D (5000 mcg B12/wk, 150 mcg iodine/day, 250 mg algal DHA-EPA/day)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-real-story-of-2016/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32412323)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 20th, 2017 12:24 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32416346)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:43 PM
Author: :D (5000 mcg B12/wk, 150 mcg iodine/day, 250 mg algal DHA-EPA/day)

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-electoral-college-blind-spot/

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/it-wasnt-clintons-election-to-lose/

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-invisible-undecided-voter/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441205)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM
Author: 404 poster not found (retired 1/3/17)

TBF this is mostly 538 gloating about how they were one of the only outlets to give Trump a reasonable chance of winning and how most were ignoring these factors

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441222)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:46 PM
Author: :D (5000 mcg B12/wk, 150 mcg iodine/day, 250 mg algal DHA-EPA/day)

It's a well deserved gloat. They did a very good job on the general election after getting their teeth kicked in during the primary.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441238)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:49 PM
Author: ,.,.,.,..,.,.,:,,:,..,:::,.,,.,:.,,.:.,:.,:.::,.


I'm not sure I agree that they should be gloating given that they were pretty confident and ended up being wrong, but I do agree that they were better than pretty much any other similar source out there for the last week or so of the election. The cynic in me says that they probably just said 70% because they figured it was no-lose since they're either right or least wrong (as they ended up being).

What are those assholes at Princeton up to?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441255)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:56 PM
Author: 404 poster not found (retired 1/3/17)

it's not like their number didn't change over time. IIRC it peaked around ~85% in the middle of the debates and slid over the last couple weeks when her lead was slipping

it's still basically an aggregator, just one that processes the numbers in a way to arrive at a more reasonable prediction % than others. e.g. princeton puts way too much faith in state polls not swinging by a good amount the last couple weeks (if I had to guess)

it seems they learned their lesson after taking the "party decides" BS as bible pre-primary and numbers-wise when they had Hillary >99% to win Michigan (state polls can be very volatile). obviously the staff is lib but that actual model is fine for what it is

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441302)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:58 PM
Author: :D (5000 mcg B12/wk, 150 mcg iodine/day, 250 mg algal DHA-EPA/day)

The national polls and state polls favored Clinton. It was correct to have her as a favorite. Trump outperformed the national polls by 2 points.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441319)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 25th, 2017 4:32 PM
Author: :D (5000 mcg B12/wk, 150 mcg iodine/day, 250 mg algal DHA-EPA/day)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ohio-was-a-bellwether-after-all/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32458110)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 26th, 2017 4:19 PM
Author: :D (5000 mcg B12/wk, 150 mcg iodine/day, 250 mg algal DHA-EPA/day)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/early-voting-was-a-misleading-indicator/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32466804)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 6th, 2017 6:42 PM
Author: :D (5000 mcg B12/wk, 150 mcg iodine/day, 250 mg algal DHA-EPA/day)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-had-a-superior-electoral-college-strategy/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32560776)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 13th, 2017 2:51 PM
Author: :D (5000 mcg B12/wk, 150 mcg iodine/day, 250 mg algal DHA-EPA/day)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32612572)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 27th, 2017 6:25 PM
Author: :D (5000 mcg B12/wk, 150 mcg iodine/day, 250 mg algal DHA-EPA/day)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-you-shouldnt-always-trust-the-inside-scoop/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32714310)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 3rd, 2017 1:52 PM
Author: :D (5000 mcg B12/wk, 150 mcg iodine/day, 250 mg algal DHA-EPA/day)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33221553)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 3rd, 2017 4:47 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33222883)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 21st, 2017 8:38 AM
Author: :D (5000 mcg B12/wk, 150 mcg iodine/day, 250 mg algal DHA-EPA/day)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-media-has-a-probability-problem/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34257967)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 23rd, 2017 5:45 PM
Author: Woah Cr friend!

this seriously needs mainstream coverage

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32441221)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 27th, 2017 6:39 PM
Author: DrakeMallard (Let's get dangerous)

One of the greatest things made on this great bort

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32714399)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 22nd, 2017 7:01 PM
Author: \'\'\'\'\'\'\'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#32891711)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 17th, 2017 9:53 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33097887)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 8th, 2017 12:36 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/861611275717156868

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33256991)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 20th, 2017 9:18 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33605191)



Reply Favorite

Date: August 10th, 2017 3:50 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.

What Kind Of Republican Might Challenge Trump In 2020?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-kind-of-republican-might-challenge-trump-in-2020/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#33958232)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 15th, 2017 4:42 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-it-safe-to-say-trump-is-a-favorite-to-win-re-election/amp/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34449074)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 15th, 2017 4:47 PM
Author: '""''''"'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34449102)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 15th, 2017 4:53 PM
Author: Bronus Swagner



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34449138)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 6th, 2017 10:06 AM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34615930)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 6th, 2017 10:09 AM
Author: I wish you a MAGA Christmas

credit where it's massively due

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34615959)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 8th, 2017 3:45 PM
Author: ,.,.,.,..,.,..,:,,:,,.,::,..,,.,:.,,.:.,:.,:.::,. (0x7A181Ec3d98daB71e392bbB0a2Dd577B166A2694)




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34636123)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 8th, 2017 4:42 PM
Author: twins



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34636459)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 13th, 2017 1:43 AM
Author: So we looked at the data



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34673088)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 18th, 2017 11:47 AM
Author: '""''''"'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34948560)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 18th, 2017 11:50 AM
Author: JFC

Will Passing The Tax Bill Help The GOP In 2018? Probably Not.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34948572)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 18th, 2017 3:44 PM
Author: '""''''"'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#34950581)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 30th, 2018 3:02 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#35278621)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 1st, 2018 7:46 PM
Author: .,..,....,.....,.,....,,....,......,......,,.,.,.. (@realcharliebrown)




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36168381)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 18th, 2018 10:15 AM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/would-republicans-be-better-off-if-clinton-were-president/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36451135)



Reply Favorite

Date: July 19th, 2018 11:53 AM
Author: '""''''"'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36458802)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 20th, 2018 7:28 AM
Author: pepito



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36847087)



Reply Favorite

Date: September 25th, 2018 11:32 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

The GOP’s Least-Worst Option Is If Kavanaugh Withdraws — And Soon

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-gops-least-worst-option-is-if-kavanaugh-withdraws-and-soon/

SEE OP: "January 19, 2016: "Trump's Best Choice? Dropping Out" "

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36889953)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 6th, 2018 4:22 PM
Author: hbs bro (old John L.)

It's about time for the OP's last prediction to come true

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36973680)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 6th, 2018 4:23 PM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.

lol 180

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#36973690)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 25th, 2018 12:04 AM
Author: .,..,....,.....,.,....,,....,......,......,,.,.,.. (🍊👱🏻‍♂️2020)




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37090167)



Reply Favorite

Date: October 25th, 2018 12:09 AM
Author: lawman8

Man, this was a really great thread. Spectacular.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37090191)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 5th, 2018 10:05 AM
Author: GOY GUN NUT



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37161974)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 5th, 2018 9:58 AM
Author: .,..,....,.....,.,....,,....,......,......,,.,.,.. (🍊👱🏻‍♂️2020)




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37161955)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 5th, 2018 10:19 AM
Author: \'\'\'\'\'\'\'



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37162045)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 5th, 2018 10:58 PM
Author: .,..,....,.....,.,....,,....,......,......,,.,.,.. (🍊👱🏻‍♂️2020)




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37167335)



Reply Favorite

Date: January 8th, 2019 3:58 PM
Author: .,,..,,,,,..,.,.,.,,

What Would It Take For Trump To Get Primaried? https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-would-it-take-for-trump-to-get-primaried/

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37553376)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 23rd, 2019 10:41 PM
Author: Walrus



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37833345)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 13th, 2019 11:17 AM
Author: .....,,.,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,.

Brendan makes some good points here. All that said, my main point would be this — a lot of people misremember Trump bucking the CW and winning the 2016 nomination as a “polls were wrong” case when actually it was an “sophisticated experts dismissed the polls” case.

https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1105835180281991170

Yeah, this. Trump didn't lead the polls at *this* stage, but he did from summer 2015 on as people like me kept coming up with elaborate explanations for why he'd lose to Rubio etc. He's a good data point for "'experts' are full of shit, so you might as well go with the polls."

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1105848702986526726



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#37923789)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 24th, 2019 9:04 AM
Author: GOY GUN NUT

There was a new leader every 2 weeks in the 2012 primary. Polls can’t predict future changes. Trump stuck, Herman Caine didn’t, but yeah, experts are full of shit.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#38431500)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 24th, 2019 8:06 AM
Author: ''"'""''"""



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3067381&forum_id=2#38431431)