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5/16/2016: Markets about to crash like 2008. Going on record

Looking at the recent rally from February lows, it's all bee...
.........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.
  05/17/16
Orly?
'''''''
  05/17/16
nah
"""''""''''
  05/17/16
...
.........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.
  05/19/16
i agree with op
;.;.;...;.;;....;.;.;;;...;.;..;..;.
  05/19/16
...
scholarship
  05/19/16
Please define exactly what your prediction is and in what ti...
~~~~~~~-.-~~~~~~
  05/19/16
We've topped out in a similar fashion to 07-08' period excep...
.........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.
  05/19/16
(guy who cant make a clear statement)
Non sequitur
  05/19/16
sorry, let me pull out my crystal ball. we will hit 1600 on ...
.........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.
  05/19/16
that's the guy's point, anyone can say we've reached the pea...
Thud Butt
  06/16/16
What is this fortune-telling bullshit?
~~(>' ' )>
  05/19/16
in some cases its quite possible we may see a slight downtic...
Non sequitur
  05/19/16
Going on record as agreeing with the op.
.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.
  05/19/16
I invested a little bit in options and can confirm the bull ...
Discerning Critic Critiquing Your Thread
  05/19/16
(It is 2011)
Aspie Pickup Line
  05/19/16
if i'm not mistaken, we're in the second longest bull mkt in...
.........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.
  05/19/16
my friend's silicon valley startup just conpleted a $150 mil...
.,,...,..,.,.,..,,:,...,::,...,:,.,.:..:.,:.::,,.,
  05/19/16
Hopefully it ends with many many silicon valley shitlibs thr...
Sir Incelot
  06/16/16
Waiting for the big crash before buying in
,,.,.,...,,,.,.,.,...,,,.,.,
  05/19/16
why? us equities have been raided. there's nothing left but ...
{(o)}
  05/19/16
Guess you’re still waiting....
nutella
  05/15/19
Update: Fed held off on hikes, pretended to keep it on the t...
.........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.
  06/16/16
Bitcoin just surged to its highest price in 2 years, fwiw. H...
CharlesXII
  06/16/16
no clue. i think it has a lot to do with chinese speculator...
.........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.
  06/16/16
Brother the 2008 crisis was big enough to topple two major i...
zarathustra
  06/16/16
You're right. Now check this out: http://www.licai18.com/ad...
.........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.
  06/16/16
Sold some shit recently, sitting in heavy cash names, zero d...
Refunkulus
  06/16/16
which names? i'm getting speculative and gamble-y which ...
.........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.
  06/16/16
I bought a fair bit of ATT 2 years ago and late last year - ...
Refunkulus
  06/16/16
i'm not a good stock picker but T looks good esp during vola...
.........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.
  06/16/16
Ya it does because it is, or rather used to be. T was the cl...
Refunkulus
  06/16/16
what do you think of soros's gold play? brexit and recession...
{(o)}
  06/16/16
I think he has a good idea of what is at work here. Brexi...
Refunkulus
  06/16/16
how do you feel about the Shiller PE being at 26? all ove...
{(o)}
  06/16/16
i think druckenmiller, icahn, kyle bass, several other HF gu...
.........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.
  06/16/16
"All of economic history is one lie and deceit after an...
.........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.
  06/16/16
Any thoughts on the future of oil and drilling in the US?
nihilist star wars
  06/16/16
i'm not too familiar but i read oil < $60/barrel drives t...
.........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.
  06/16/16
...
POWERGOY
  06/16/16
?
GAY GOY
  05/15/19
...
teddy tortellini
  05/15/19


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: May 17th, 2016 5:29 PM
Author: .........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.


Looking at the recent rally from February lows, it's all been on very low volume. Macro data is very bearish and we're reaching the end of the business and credit cycle.

Major hedge fund guys like Icahn, Soros, and Drunckenmiller are taking up huge short positions.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30499189)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 17th, 2016 5:57 PM
Author: '''''''

Orly?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30499359)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 17th, 2016 6:05 PM
Author: """''""''''


nah

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30499432)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 19th, 2016 11:38 AM
Author: .........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.




(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30512251)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 19th, 2016 11:44 AM
Author: ;.;.;...;.;;....;.;.;;;...;.;..;..;.


i agree with op

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30512295)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 19th, 2016 11:44 AM
Author: scholarship



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30512298)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 19th, 2016 11:44 AM
Author: ~~~~~~~-.-~~~~~~ ( )

Please define exactly what your prediction is and in what timeframe so you can blank bump this to the sky when you're right. The problem with these stock market threads is that we're all a bunch of lawyers so everybody argues about whether they were "really" right. Thanks.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30512299)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 19th, 2016 12:02 PM
Author: .........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.


We've topped out in a similar fashion to 07-08' period except with more monetary massaging so the topping pattern is broader. We peaked summer of last year with some volatility spikes showing initial weakness (look Aug 07' and Jan 08' for comparisons to this year Aug 15' and Jan-Feb 16'). Then you have a low volume, bear trap rally through May. Watch out for a retest of those lows through summer.

Fed may headfake with June rate hikes again and we may get a short term bounce again but it will be short-lived. All the macro data coming in is showing recession. By Fall, we should see some real selling. Unlike the 08' crisis, this next one has many potential catalysts but it will similarly be a global crisis. As far as the stock market levels, a lot of that depends on Fed response but we can easily decline 20% from here on SP500.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30512426)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 19th, 2016 12:08 PM
Author: Non sequitur ( )

(guy who cant make a clear statement)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30512461)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 19th, 2016 12:11 PM
Author: .........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.


sorry, let me pull out my crystal ball. we will hit 1600 on the SP500 by November 1, 2016.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30512487)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 16th, 2016 11:02 AM
Author: Thud Butt (playing with gay dog boners since 2013)

that's the guy's point, anyone can say we've reached the peak, wait six mos or a year or whatever, then say "see i told you so"

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30717561)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 19th, 2016 12:11 PM
Author: ~~(>' ' )>

What is this fortune-telling bullshit?



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30512485)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 19th, 2016 12:15 PM
Author: Non sequitur ( )

in some cases its quite possible we may see a slight downtick in stocks depending on the fed's actions and genreal consumer sentiment, but dont hold me to it

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30512514)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 19th, 2016 11:45 AM
Author: .,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,. (Happy Super Trump Day)

Going on record as agreeing with the op.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30512305)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 19th, 2016 11:45 AM
Author: Discerning Critic Critiquing Your Thread

I invested a little bit in options and can confirm the bull mirage.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30512309)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 19th, 2016 11:47 AM
Author: Aspie Pickup Line

(It is 2011)

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30512320)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 19th, 2016 12:06 PM
Author: .........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.


if i'm not mistaken, we're in the second longest bull mkt in history. the first being dotcom.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30512455)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 19th, 2016 12:11 PM
Author: .,,...,..,.,.,..,,:,...,::,...,:,.,.:..:.,:.::,,.,


my friend's silicon valley startup just conpleted a $150 million round for a platform that negotiates legal contracts automatically using AI. oh btw the platform hasn't even been built and thus is completely theoretical. he's director of biz dev and is being paid $220k + stock.

ljl this economy is going to end well. money is being thrown at shit like that all the time these days.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30512482)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 16th, 2016 11:11 AM
Author: Sir Incelot

Hopefully it ends with many many silicon valley shitlibs throwing themselves off the GGB.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30717615)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 19th, 2016 12:15 PM
Author: ,,.,.,...,,,.,.,.,...,,,.,.,


Waiting for the big crash before buying in

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30512511)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 19th, 2016 12:26 PM
Author: {(o)}

why? us equities have been raided. there's nothing left but more debt than assets

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30512568)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 15th, 2019 4:21 PM
Author: nutella

Guess you’re still waiting....

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#38239448)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 16th, 2016 4:23 AM
Author: .........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.


Update: Fed held off on hikes, pretended to keep it on the table for July but realistically they're done here. No hikes for the rest of the year esp with elections approaching. ECB and JCB both at negative interest rates so they've run out of ammo plus negative rates seem to actually be having the opposite effect of causing stock mkts to decline and destroying central bankers' credibility in the sense that they can effectively manage mkts.

No June rate hike was already priced in. Stocks could muddle through the next few months or just sell off if investors put the Fed in the same boat as ECB and JCB--that is, they too have run out of monetary policy tools to goose the mkts.

1) Watch yield on US 10 yr treasuries drop out as investors move into US Bonds.

2) Watch gold price as investors lose faith in all inflated assets

3) Watch bitcoin for the same reasons as gold (this one is more speculative)

4) Watch for financial stocks (major banks, eg, Deutsche, Credit Suisse, HSBC, Barclays, JPM, etc) to drop as lower interest rates crush their business models.

Interestingly enough, while European mkts and Nikkei have been selling off, SP500 is still near highs. I see this as a major divergence that will likely converge as the world realizes the US economy isn't any different. Crash might start in abroad first and spread to our economy and we'll blame it on them, but really, we're all in the same boat.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30716445)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 16th, 2016 10:23 AM
Author: CharlesXII (CharlesXII)

Bitcoin just surged to its highest price in 2 years, fwiw. How high can it go?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30717284)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 16th, 2016 10:33 AM
Author: .........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.


no clue. i think it has a lot to do with chinese speculators and new changes that reduce amt you receive when mining for them. honestly, i have a small, spec position that i'll just ride through the 20-30% swings.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30717351)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 16th, 2016 4:31 AM
Author: zarathustra

Brother the 2008 crisis was big enough to topple two major investment banks.

Growth might not be attractive in the near future but for something like 2008 you need a major catalyst. Sluggish macro isnít enough.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30716454)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 16th, 2016 9:45 AM
Author: .........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.


You're right. Now check this out: http://www.licai18.com/admin/ewebeditor/uploadfile/20160615081754544.jpg

the jury's still out but this chart is a few days old. DB and CS have both broken down to new lows. several eurobanks are at risk of collapse. some commentators say the ECB knows this is coming and have fenced it off so to speak and are ready to bail them out so it won't be the same as 2008.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30717085)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 16th, 2016 9:48 AM
Author: Refunkulus (never count out a MUSCLE NUT)

Sold some shit recently, sitting in heavy cash names, zero debt names or utility like companies. Getting very fucking ugly out here

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30717111)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 16th, 2016 9:56 AM
Author: .........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.


which names?

i'm getting speculative and gamble-y which is always dangerous.

picked up GBTC (bitcoin) 2 wks ago as an anti-central bank play and it's almost up 100%. this thing feels ripe for a blowoff top.

also picked up TLT, gold miners, and shorted Deutsche Bank a while back. I'm looking to speculate with options on interest rates or VIX but that rarely ends well.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30717137)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 16th, 2016 10:14 AM
Author: Refunkulus (never count out a MUSCLE NUT)

I bought a fair bit of ATT 2 years ago and late last year - thing's up almost 30%. Might sell it soon and swap into some beaten down Euro shit.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30717216)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 16th, 2016 10:21 AM
Author: .........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.


i'm not a good stock picker but T looks good esp during volatile 1Q2016. behaves like a utility?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30717269)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 16th, 2016 11:07 AM
Author: Refunkulus (never count out a MUSCLE NUT)

Ya it does because it is, or rather used to be. T was the classic refuge during times of fucked up bullshit (peep out 2007), always runs up before shit hits the fan

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30717594)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 16th, 2016 9:58 AM
Author: {(o)}

what do you think of soros's gold play? brexit and recession will pay off.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30717148)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 16th, 2016 10:13 AM
Author: Refunkulus (never count out a MUSCLE NUT)

I think he has a good idea of what is at work here.

Brexit, I think, will come.

With that we have a prisoners dilemma of other countries leaving the Euro, and with that the currency weakens. A weak euro begets higher gold.

If central banks don't increase rates, the markets are going to do it in a roundabout way via price action on risk assets. What I mean by this is that credit is going to contract, and you are going to get to the point where you are gonna need cash which will cause setting. Central bankers are rogue to the point where I think that the Eurozone is going to have to dismantle itself or face a disorderly and chaotic collapse.

Or I could be totally wrong.

Look the market has had an incredibly good 7 year bull run, you don't need all your money on the crap table.

Eventually I think Volker is going to be proven right and we gotta start raising rates on this bitch and let the shitty shit fail. Fed Funds of 1.5-2% is enough to take away a ton of bullshit and market distorting speculation.

This is a right proper cluster fuck though, Europeans should be putting the ECB and related officials in prisons, not in political positions.



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30717208)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 16th, 2016 10:28 AM
Author: {(o)}

how do you feel about the Shiller PE being at 26?

all over the place, i see nothing but horribly overvalued everything, but i can't see a catalyst. fucking draghi buying a trillion in corporate bonds. wtf? eurozone companies don't have anything to do with that money except maybe some M&A and buybacks. but it's like there's nothing these central banks won't print their way out of. the eurozone isn't even in bad shape, and they're QEing. the US looks just fine in terms of what the fed should supposedly be concerned with, and yellen won't raise rates. so the failure will need to be currency or something like that.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30717318)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 16th, 2016 10:18 AM
Author: .........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.


i think druckenmiller, icahn, kyle bass, several other HF guys are in gold now. icahn is record short the market.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30717257)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 16th, 2016 10:35 AM
Author: .........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.


"All of economic history is one lie and deceit after another. Your job as a speculator is to get on when the lie is being propagated and then get off before it is discovered." George Soros

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30717372)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 16th, 2016 10:44 AM
Author: nihilist star wars

Any thoughts on the future of oil and drilling in the US?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30717432)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 16th, 2016 11:05 AM
Author: .........,,;,;,;,,,............,,;,;;,.;.


i'm not too familiar but i read oil < $60/barrel drives the frackers out of business. i think a lot of price right now is heavily influenced by geopolitics.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30717578)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 16th, 2016 10:54 AM
Author: POWERGOY (autist-in-residence)



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#30717507)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 15th, 2019 3:48 PM
Author: GAY GOY

?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#38239317)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 15th, 2019 4:13 PM
Author: teddy tortellini



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3226399&forum_id=2#38239408)