Football bros: Explain punting?
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Date: August 12th, 2016 3:55 PM Author: iridescent corn cake dog poop
A combined score of over 60 is pretty rare. Maybe not in college, but NFL > NCAA. As a Vegas bro, you should know that the o/u would make 60 an over in about 99% of games.
Punting from the 40 or 50 allows you to bury opponent in his own end zone. Increases probability of a safety and allows you to pressure offense into making careless plays.
Field position isn't meaningless because it will effect whether or not the offense and defense will engage in high risk/high reward behavior (deep passes, putting an 8th man in the box, etc.) Statistics also show you want to keep offense out of FG range, or confine them there out of the Red Zone.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3319776&forum_id=2#31169876) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 4:04 PM Author: iridescent corn cake dog poop
If I'm on my own 30, I either:
1) Punt and force the opposing team to drive long.
2) Turnover on downs, guarantee my opponent a field goal, or give him position to get a TD on a short pass (which has a higher probability of success than a long ball).
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3319776&forum_id=2#31169957) |
Date: August 12th, 2016 3:53 PM Author: Painfully honest garrison
"So field position is meaningless since teams score 30+ points per game. "
huh?????
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3319776&forum_id=2#31169851) |
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Date: August 17th, 2016 4:27 PM Author: massive hospital
whether or not it is a preferable strategy isn't dependent solely on whether or not you score when successful on going for it on 4th down, nor is it dependent on whether or not the other team will score if you fail.
i suggest you get some knowledgeable programmers and football people and you start creating simulations to see what happens and you continue making tweaks until you have some confidence that the results you are getting can be trusted.
it's not completely different from trying to figure out if a pitcher should bat in the 8th or 9th spot.
however, ultimately i think it will require some teams to actually do it to see what happens. right now, we have a sample size of about 1, in high school, and it has been extremely successful.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3319776&forum_id=2#31208977) |
Date: August 12th, 2016 4:09 PM Author: Aphrodisiac Spot Sweet Tailpipe
You should refine the argument.
If you're on your own ten, a punt probably makes it much harder for them to score (and more likely that if they do, it'll be for 3 and not 7),so it's likely the right call.
On the other hand, don't punt in fg range (which no one does).
Whether to punt on your own 40 is a reasonable question, etc. And it obviously depends on how far you are from first down, and your odds of maeking it.
But there's tons of other strategic shit going on as well, some of which has been mentioned. If you let the opposing offense start in fg range every drive, you're going to lose. Make them drive the whole field each time and they'll get tired and make mistakes more often, etc.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3319776&forum_id=2#31170003) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:01 PM Author: Dashing chocolate house
There's a question for you,
If Bill belicheck went Kevin Kelly and started to go for every 4th down, how long would it take everyone to copy him?
Not long right?
So if you're belicheck is it smart to do something that's so easy for everyone to copy?
Maybe you're better off showing some restraint and only going for it occasionally when you really need it (but still more than most other people)
To preserve it as a differentiation between you and everyone else
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3319776&forum_id=2#31172514) |
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Date: August 17th, 2016 4:13 PM Author: massive hospital
you are talking gibberish
if doing something a different way makes you better than doing it another way, you don't worry that others will copy you and take away your
advantage.
i think your logical fallacy in thinking this is known as
stupidity
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3319776&forum_id=2#31208927) |
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Date: September 9th, 2016 12:32 PM Author: Dashing chocolate house
But the question is whether or not Kelly is ready to evolve. As the new coach of the San Francisco 49ers, the man who was at one time football’s leading innovator seeks redemption in the heart of Silicon Valley, America’s current cradle of disruptive innovation, a fitting landing spot given that it appears Kelly is seemingly hurtling toward being the next victim of the “Innovator’s Curse.”
The first idea of the curse is that innovations that can’t be protected frequently don’t benefit the innovator, an issue for Kelly given that one can’t patent football play, and any play that works one week is sure to be used across the league by the next. Indeed, NFL coaches as diverse as Hue Jackson, Pete Carroll, Mike McCarthy, Mike McCoy, Bill O’Brien, Adam Gase, and even Belichick have co-opted Kelly’s ideas, and Kelly’s former quarterbacks coach, current Raiders offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave, said frankly that “the majority of what we’re doing [on offense] is Chip Kelly stuff.” The history of football is in many ways the history of men who watched others win with their ideas.
But the second idea behind the Innovator’s Curse is that, having once innovated, it’s increasingly difficult for the innovator to continue innovating. To use Silicon Valley examples, there are countless IBMs, Xeroxes, and Yahoos: one-time disruptors whose cultures and ideas ossified and who eventually became the disrupted.
If Kelly fails to innovate and evolve, he’ll just be yet another in a long line of football coaches, once considered cutting edge, who themselves were disrupted. But there is some reason for hope. Kelly is a smart coach in a sport where those are in short supply, and, in his first press conference as 49ers head coach, he hinted at introspection when he said he was performing an “autopsy” on what exactly went wrong during his Eagles tenure. But Kelly’s actions since — from his uninspired assistant-coaching hires to his team’s play this preseason — showed nothing that would indicate anything except more of the same, and just Thursday Kelly said the only thing he’s done differently since his time in Philadelphia is “put a lot more sunscreen on.” If Kelly 2.0 fails in San Francisco, it will be a shame for those of us who continue to admire what he did to push the game of football forward, but it certainly won’t be a surprise.
https://theringer.com/chip-kelly-san-francisco-49ers-offense-f332f053870e
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3319776&forum_id=2#31367989) |
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:10 PM Author: Sickened racy corner
Punting makes more sense as you increase levels of play.
Sort of like how full court pressing works best in basketball at lower levels of play.
I think stats show that NFL coaches still punt too much, but I can see punting when you are in your own territory just to try to minimize damage.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3319776&forum_id=2#31172597) |
Date: August 12th, 2016 9:12 PM Author: Galvanic spruce potus brethren
(Andy Reid down by 10 points in the 4th quarter punting on 4th and 1 at the 50).
(Phil Simms lauding him, saying, "no doubt this is the right decision, let your defense win this game for you")
Lol at the sheeple in this thread. Nopunt is not realistic, but rarelypunt is tc strategy.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3319776&forum_id=2#31172612) |
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Date: August 12th, 2016 9:14 PM Author: Unhinged patrolman
Down by a touchdown in the third quarter in Evanston, Illinois, Stanford University's offense drove down to the Northwestern University 37-yard line. On fourth-and-four, Stanford coach David Shaw faced an important decision: kick the very long field goal, go for it, or dare I say, punt.
Much to the relief of the Ryan Field crowd—yes, the Northwestern crowd—Shaw sent out his punt team, hoping to "pin em deep," as they say in the football world. Stanford did not pin 'em deep. The Cardinal's punt went into the endzone for a touchback, netting 17 yards on the play. Playing for field position did not work, as Stanford failed to score on the next drive, or the next, and only scored after a Northwestern field goal led to a kickoff return. Stanford lost the game, 16-6.
https://sports.vice.com/en_us/article/punt-happy-college-football-coaches-are-afraid-of-unemployment-and-math
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3319776&forum_id=2#31172622) |
Date: August 13th, 2016 2:49 PM Author: snowy toaster
football sabermetrics guy here. the issue actually isn't choosing to punt, the issue is that the quality of punting in the united states has never been worse
in that david shaw story posted above, the numbers actually were correct if he'd managed to get NW pinned within the five. the issue was that it was really, really unlikely that his garbage punter could stick that, as evidenced by alex robinson and jake baileys complete garbage seasons. the influx of aussie rules punters will radically - RADICALLY - change the game over the next decade
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3319776&forum_id=2#31176589) |
Date: August 17th, 2016 4:19 PM Author: appetizing zippy institution selfie
Literally lolling at how fucking LONG this thread is.
Congrats to :D for spending some of that bort social capital he's been building up all this time.
(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3319776&forum_id=2#31208949) |
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