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According to this metric we're still a ways off from the next recession

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capit...
stubborn glittery newt
  03/27/17
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hateful cerise bawdyhouse
  03/27/17
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stubborn glittery newt
  03/27/17
it predicted four of the last 8 recessions. it's literally a...
Vibrant property
  03/27/17
...
stubborn glittery newt
  03/27/17
...
hateful cerise bawdyhouse
  03/27/17
So how far off are we then?
Transparent Marvelous Piazza Pozpig
  03/27/17
That's a sps metric though because the spread can radically ...
Laughsome canary main people
  03/27/17
...
stubborn glittery newt
  03/27/17
...
stubborn glittery newt
  07/25/17
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stubborn glittery newt
  01/05/18
...
stubborn glittery newt
  03/22/19
...
stubborn glittery newt
  08/14/19


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Date: March 27th, 2017 10:53 AM
Author: stubborn glittery newt

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/capital_markets/Prob_Rec.pdf

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3565514&forum_id=2#32927776)



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Date: March 27th, 2017 10:56 AM
Author: hateful cerise bawdyhouse



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3565514&forum_id=2#32927800)



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Date: March 27th, 2017 5:39 PM
Author: stubborn glittery newt



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3565514&forum_id=2#32931343)



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Date: March 27th, 2017 5:49 PM
Author: Vibrant property

it predicted four of the last 8 recessions. it's literally a coin flip

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3565514&forum_id=2#32931434)



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Date: March 27th, 2017 5:51 PM
Author: stubborn glittery newt



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3565514&forum_id=2#32931453)



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Date: March 27th, 2017 5:52 PM
Author: hateful cerise bawdyhouse



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3565514&forum_id=2#32931456)



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Date: March 27th, 2017 5:44 PM
Author: Transparent Marvelous Piazza Pozpig

So how far off are we then?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3565514&forum_id=2#32931383)



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Date: March 27th, 2017 5:44 PM
Author: Laughsome canary main people

That's a sps metric though because the spread can radically shift within the span of less than a year. The "prediction power" is kind of fraud given some crazy swing is usually happening in the context of financial chaos to begin with

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3565514&forum_id=2#32931391)



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Date: March 27th, 2017 5:49 PM
Author: stubborn glittery newt



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3565514&forum_id=2#32931438)



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Date: July 25th, 2017 5:45 PM
Author: stubborn glittery newt



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3565514&forum_id=2#33853671)



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Date: January 5th, 2018 10:15 AM
Author: stubborn glittery newt



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3565514&forum_id=2#35086976)



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Date: March 22nd, 2019 11:40 AM
Author: stubborn glittery newt



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3565514&forum_id=2#37971161)



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Date: August 14th, 2019 1:16 PM
Author: stubborn glittery newt



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3565514&forum_id=2#38685939)