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If ur not buying TWX ur insane

The Time Warner/AT&T merger will go through despite the ...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  11/15/17
FRIENDLY REMINDER
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  11/16/17
this is still a good buy?
Umber 180 corn cake
  11/16/17
Deal spread is $15 based on the current price of T (stock po...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  11/16/17
It's a hell of a spread and you would be getting T at a GREA...
cream narrow-minded pit
  11/16/17
do you ENDORSE this buy?
Umber 180 corn cake
  11/16/17
I'm not the best at arbitrage operations - but I think this ...
cream narrow-minded pit
  11/16/17
Thank
insecure judgmental brunch
  11/16/17
u fuckin fagets are missin out
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  11/16/17
I bought 10 shares of TWX. We will see what unfolds
Umber 180 corn cake
  11/16/17
DOJ will likely sue to block the deal. TWX might spike down ...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  11/16/17
Spread a little narrower! Let's hope AT&T settles with t...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  11/17/17
Lawsuit is officially out. Looks like a weak complaint by th...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  11/21/17
Judge is a GWB appointee! Wave it in boys!
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  11/21/17
How can I buy stocks on coinbase
galvanic pearly casino
  11/21/17
didn't even go down with yesterday's news
Autistic electric hominid background story
  11/21/17
It was well expected the DOJ would sue to block, and without...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  11/21/17
is it too late to buy?
Autistic electric hominid background story
  11/21/17
If the deal gets approved there's still over $13 upside from...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  11/21/17
In for $1000.
Racy stock car stage
  11/21/17
same
Godawful Cruise Ship
  11/24/17
in for 3 grand. Not going to get Smuckers'd again by ignorin...
Hyperventilating stage
  11/21/17
same
Autistic electric hominid background story
  11/21/17
Same reasoning, same amount.
Contagious grizzly crackhouse quadroon
  11/21/17
Ok, I dropped a couple grand in there. We'll see what unfold...
Contagious grizzly crackhouse quadroon
  11/21/17
What does exeunt say
galvanic pearly casino
  11/21/17
Buy index funds
Flesh naked cumskin garrison
  11/24/17
Note there are two risks here: -The main risk is the judg...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  11/21/17
my family has a FUCKTON of twx. I hope you guys are right.
Aphrodisiac locus
  11/21/17
btw this position should be a lawyer's wet dream, so any law...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  11/21/17
Antitrust is voodoo magic.
Racy stock car stage
  11/21/17
PREACH XO should be handicapping the odds on this like ma...
cream narrow-minded pit
  11/21/17
CNBC just said they changed the judge
Hyperventilating stage
  11/21/17
They did, from an Obama appointee (who had to recuse himself...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  11/21/17
oh okay nice
Hyperventilating stage
  11/21/17
copped $3,000 for fun. my condolences to all of you.
Glittery Cyan Degenerate Preventive Strike
  11/21/17
did you sellcuck?
Hyperventilating stage
  11/21/17
no but i am investing cancer every time I pick stocks. last...
Glittery Cyan Degenerate Preventive Strike
  11/21/17
oh gotcha, 180. we can all move into a communal poorhouse
Hyperventilating stage
  11/21/17
...
Glittery Cyan Degenerate Preventive Strike
  11/24/17
welp
Hyperventilating stage
  11/27/17
What's the problem brother
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  11/29/17
did I destroy it? maybe I should buy some crypto and kill t...
Glittery Cyan Degenerate Preventive Strike
  11/29/17
No it's making new highs!
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  11/29/17
Probably not a terrible spot to make a sale, but the arb spr...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  12/04/17
I've only made fifty bucks I can't sellcuck yet!
Hyperventilating stage
  12/04/17
Then hold tight brother. This is more of a "tactical tr...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  12/04/17
If you hold through the transaction the T shares you get hav...
cream narrow-minded pit
  12/04/17
Are all u TWX holders LOVING LIFE atm?
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  02/01/18
thank you for your good service
Godawful Cruise Ship
  02/02/18
noTWXers crying, losing hoap
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  02/02/18
long term hold for you? or will you flip after the likely me...
Godawful Cruise Ship
  02/02/18
This should close very quickly following approval, so you'll...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  02/02/18
dem hedge funds are scooping up TWX stock per xo advice: ...
Godawful Cruise Ship
  02/20/18
...
orange federal school fanboi
  02/20/18
...
Godawful Cruise Ship
  02/20/18
Just bought 120 shares @ 95. You guys better not be fucking ...
exciting mildly autistic range
  02/20/18
I liked it better sub-90 but the thesis is still there - wou...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  02/20/18
What happens now
exciting mildly autistic range
  02/20/18
idk, Makan seems intent on fighting to the bitter end, but i...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  02/21/18
...
orange federal school fanboi
  02/21/18
I HELD I LOVE YOU
exciting mildly autistic range
  06/12/18
...
orange federal school fanboi
  02/20/18
...
orange federal school fanboi
  02/21/18
is it up big or down
Hyperventilating stage
  02/21/18
Up 50 bps. Still a $11 spread.
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  02/21/18
unnnnghhhhhhhh
Hyperventilating stage
  02/21/18
The DOJ's case is shit and everyone knows it. Now the trial ...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  03/15/18
...
orange federal school fanboi
  03/19/18
...
orange federal school fanboi
  03/19/18
really shitty call so far, S&P is up 10% since OP. Basic...
Bonkers lettuce
  03/19/18
...
orange federal school fanboi
  03/19/18
Arbs like this are market isolated
cream narrow-minded pit
  03/19/18
lol jfc 10% is a GREAT return in 4 months,and there's sti...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  03/19/18
great call actually and it's going to the moon
Hyperventilating stage
  03/19/18
when moon
Godawful Cruise Ship
  03/20/18
Judge Leon gave the trial a 6-8 week timetable. Possible the...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  03/20/18
ty
Godawful Cruise Ship
  03/24/18
Civ #? Ty for the info.
Cerebral twinkling uncleanness elastic band
  03/24/18
...
orange federal school fanboi
  03/23/18
DOJ is getting GAPED in litigation right now. Like, benzo-ti...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  03/23/18
...
orange federal school fanboi
  03/23/18
The DOJ's KEY WITNESS, one Carl "Faggot" Shapiro, ...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  04/11/18
Btw the main headwind to this trade lately has been T stayin...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  04/11/18
...
orange federal school fanboi
  04/17/18
...
orange federal school fanboi
  04/26/18
...
orange federal school fanboi
  04/26/18
Problem is T is getting clobbered on earnings today (risk ou...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  04/26/18
...
orange federal school fanboi
  04/26/18
Yes, no idea whether they'll try to squeeze T for more thoug...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  04/26/18
...
orange federal school fanboi
  04/26/18
The trial should be done by early next week, and from there ...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  04/26/18
...
orange federal school fanboi
  04/26/18
Depends on your pain tolerance. At this point if the deal br...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  04/26/18
When are you selling your TWX stock bro?
Godawful Cruise Ship
  06/13/18
I'm tempted to get long some AT&T here - Anyone know if ...
cream narrow-minded pit
  04/26/18
...
orange federal school fanboi
  04/26/18
ok very interesting - I think the DoJ does not have a case h...
cream narrow-minded pit
  04/26/18
Fuck twx is at 91 today
exciting mildly autistic range
  05/09/18
:(
Racy stock car stage
  05/09/18
Is this also the nxpi merger arb masterman?
Crawly Parlour Party Of The First Part
  05/09/18
Hovenkamp says TWX bros are fukt. https://www.bizjournals...
Racy stock car stage
  06/04/18
Ruling this week!
Godawful Cruise Ship
  06/11/18
We maed it.
Racy stock car stage
  06/12/18
YES WE CAN
Godawful Cruise Ship
  06/12/18
14% return from time op created this thread based on after h...
talking prole
  06/12/18
14% since 2016? doesn't seem worth tying up investmnet dolla...
sickened turdskin
  06/12/18
That would require risk, which is why xo didn't invest becau...
Deranged love of her life house
  06/12/18
lmao Makan u faggot
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  06/12/18
how likely is it that TWX trades above 102 in the next coupl...
exciting mildly autistic range
  06/12/18
Anyone know when the next ex dividend date for $T is? Solidl...
Greedy emerald crotch state
  06/12/18
http://www.dividend.com/dividend-stocks/technology/telecom-s...
Deranged love of her life house
  06/13/18
when are bros selling? Deal closes in 7 days
Godawful Cruise Ship
  06/13/18
...
orange federal school fanboi
  06/13/18
Depends what your view on T is. Probably going to be selling...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  06/13/18
...
orange federal school fanboi
  06/13/18
I'd like to take my profits and run very soon. But don't kno...
Godawful Cruise Ship
  06/13/18
...
orange federal school fanboi
  06/13/18
cr. Will sell now
Godawful Cruise Ship
  06/13/18
I sold June 22 100 calls on my shares. No way the deal close...
exciting mildly autistic range
  06/13/18
The gross spread here is $2, which implies a close of ~$99.9...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  06/13/18
...
orange federal school fanboi
  06/13/18
T getting crushed obviously did not help. But not totally un...
carnelian juggernaut kitchen
  06/13/18


Poast new message in this thread



Reply Favorite

Date: November 15th, 2017 3:04 PM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

The Time Warner/AT&T merger will go through despite the tough stance the DOJ is taking right now. $15 upside from here. Will happen within a matter of months. CONVICTION BUY

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34693977)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:34 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

FRIENDLY REMINDER

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699879)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:34 AM
Author: Umber 180 corn cake

this is still a good buy?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699884)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:36 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

Deal spread is $15 based on the current price of T (stock portion changes depending on where T falls within a certain collar, but given the current price of T it's well outside of that collar and fixed at 1.437). CONVICTION BUY.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699899)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:34 AM
Author: cream narrow-minded pit

It's a hell of a spread and you would be getting T at a GREAT price

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699882)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:35 AM
Author: Umber 180 corn cake

do you ENDORSE this buy?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699892)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:36 AM
Author: cream narrow-minded pit

I'm not the best at arbitrage operations - but I think this is a good risk. If you want the upside benefit you can buy straight T stock - almost a 6% yield.

I personally think that AT&T is doing the right thing to win in the long term right now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699903)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:38 AM
Author: insecure judgmental brunch

Thank

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34699914)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:51 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

u fuckin fagets are missin out

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34700013)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:51 AM
Author: Umber 180 corn cake

I bought 10 shares of TWX. We will see what unfolds

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34700015)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 16th, 2017 10:55 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

DOJ will likely sue to block the deal. TWX might spike down on that headline. But the DOJ will almost certainly lose if they make it to court. Most likely scenario is they settle with AT&T prior to the lawsuit ever seeing court.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34700043)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 17th, 2017 1:07 PM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

Spread a little narrower! Let's hope AT&T settles with the DOJ so we can slam this bad boy shut!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34710049)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 10:59 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

Lawsuit is officially out. Looks like a weak complaint by the DOJ. Any lawyers poast on this board?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739080)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:01 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

Judge is a GWB appointee! Wave it in boys!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739091)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:02 AM
Author: galvanic pearly casino

How can I buy stocks on coinbase

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739095)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:03 AM
Author: Autistic electric hominid background story

didn't even go down with yesterday's news

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739105)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:06 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

It was well expected the DOJ would sue to block, and without seeing the complaint people were afraid they might have a strong case. Complaint looked on the weaker side when it was released. Still a binary event here with some deal risk, but most observers think the DOJ doesn't have much of a case here.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739119)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:09 AM
Author: Autistic electric hominid background story

is it too late to buy?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739127)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:11 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

If the deal gets approved there's still over $13 upside from here. If the deal get blocked you're likely looking at $8-10 downside. But today's news definitely appears bullish for approval.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739154)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:03 AM
Author: Racy stock car stage

In for $1000.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739107)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 24th, 2017 6:54 AM
Author: Godawful Cruise Ship

same

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34760892)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:09 AM
Author: Hyperventilating stage

in for 3 grand. Not going to get Smuckers'd again by ignoring xo tips

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739126)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:12 AM
Author: Autistic electric hominid background story

same

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739158)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:22 AM
Author: Contagious grizzly crackhouse quadroon

Same reasoning, same amount.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739240)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:18 AM
Author: Contagious grizzly crackhouse quadroon

Ok, I dropped a couple grand in there. We'll see what unfolds.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739206)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:21 AM
Author: galvanic pearly casino

What does exeunt say

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739227)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 24th, 2017 8:52 AM
Author: Flesh naked cumskin garrison

Buy index funds

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34761064)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:26 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

Note there are two risks here:

-The main risk is the judge sides with the DOJ and the merger gets blocked. This seems unlikely based on precedent, the strength of the complaint, and the assigned judge, but it could happen. The DOJ could produce smoking gun internal docs showing AT&T is looking to reduce competition with this merger or some such thing, and we could go back to pre-Bork antitrust precedent. If the deal breaks TWX probably trades in the low $80s.

-This is a cash-and-stock merger, so if AT&T goes down, the stock portion of the consideration will also go down. Right now the deal terms are 1.437 shares of T plus $53.75 cash, but the stock ratio will change if AT&T rallies significantly. If you want to hedge out the T risk, you could short T shares against the TWX buy. But T has gotten pummeled lately, so it's hard to see it getting smoked much more from here.

Bottom line, if you think this merger is going through, this spread is extremely juicy. But like anything else, it's not risk-free.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739265)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:27 AM
Author: Aphrodisiac locus

my family has a FUCKTON of twx. I hope you guys are right.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739276)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 11:56 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

btw this position should be a lawyer's wet dream, so any law dorks who care to take a look at this should be able to gain some insight here

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739521)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 12:00 PM
Author: Racy stock car stage

Antitrust is voodoo magic.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739539)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 8:46 PM
Author: cream narrow-minded pit

PREACH

XO should be handicapping the odds on this like masterd00ds

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34744304)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:05 PM
Author: Hyperventilating stage

CNBC just said they changed the judge

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34739990)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:20 PM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

They did, from an Obama appointee (who had to recuse himself because his wife works for a law firm who represented T) to a GWB appointee. We were on top of this at the time.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740122)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:21 PM
Author: Hyperventilating stage

oh okay nice

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740131)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:09 PM
Author: Glittery Cyan Degenerate Preventive Strike

copped $3,000 for fun. my condolences to all of you.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740015)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:10 PM
Author: Hyperventilating stage

did you sellcuck?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740028)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:21 PM
Author: Glittery Cyan Degenerate Preventive Strike

no but i am investing cancer every time I pick stocks. last xo pick I ran with was Intrepid Potash.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740137)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 21st, 2017 1:22 PM
Author: Hyperventilating stage

oh gotcha, 180. we can all move into a communal poorhouse

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34740146)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 24th, 2017 8:46 PM
Author: Glittery Cyan Degenerate Preventive Strike



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34764731)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 27th, 2017 1:37 PM
Author: Hyperventilating stage

welp

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34781898)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 29th, 2017 3:46 PM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

What's the problem brother

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34799548)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 29th, 2017 3:46 PM
Author: Glittery Cyan Degenerate Preventive Strike

did I destroy it? maybe I should buy some crypto and kill the entire market.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34799553)



Reply Favorite

Date: November 29th, 2017 3:56 PM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

No it's making new highs!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34799627)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:00 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

Probably not a terrible spot to make a sale, but the arb spread is still super wide because T has been ripping. Will probably pull back a little bit from here (but lots of potential upside left if T wins/settles the lawsuit).



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835068)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:02 AM
Author: Hyperventilating stage

I've only made fifty bucks I can't sellcuck yet!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835076)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:03 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

Then hold tight brother. This is more of a "tactical trading call."

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835094)



Reply Favorite

Date: December 4th, 2017 10:06 AM
Author: cream narrow-minded pit

If you hold through the transaction the T shares you get have a very very solid yield

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#34835110)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 1st, 2018 9:31 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

Are all u TWX holders LOVING LIFE atm?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35294682)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 12:01 PM
Author: Godawful Cruise Ship

thank you for your good service

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35304774)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 11:40 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

noTWXers crying, losing hoap

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35304591)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 12:01 PM
Author: Godawful Cruise Ship

long term hold for you? or will you flip after the likely merger approval?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35304769)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 2nd, 2018 3:35 PM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

This should close very quickly following approval, so you'll get cash and T shares. I have no real opinion on T shares, so I'll be out upon deal closure.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35307111)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 5:47 AM
Author: Godawful Cruise Ship

dem hedge funds are scooping up TWX stock per xo advice:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-16/hedge-funds-pile-into-time-warner-in-bet-on-merger-prevailing

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443345)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 6:09 AM
Author: orange federal school fanboi



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443387)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 10:48 AM
Author: Godawful Cruise Ship



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35444218)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 8:57 AM
Author: exciting mildly autistic range

Just bought 120 shares @ 95. You guys better not be fucking with me

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443651)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 9:02 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

I liked it better sub-90 but the thesis is still there - would be very hard to justify blocking the deal given the strength in streaming services.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35443663)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 4:08 PM
Author: exciting mildly autistic range

What happens now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35446560)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:22 PM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

idk, Makan seems intent on fighting to the bitter end, but it's hard to see his path to success - AT&T just needs to pull up a chart of NFLX as their defense.

Some sell-side shops are saying TWX would trade above deal price if the deal broke (I don't agree), but improving fundamentals for the space can't hurt. Most likely outcome is still judge rules in favor of AT&T and the deal goes through.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453348)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:24 PM
Author: orange federal school fanboi



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453361)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 9:41 PM
Author: exciting mildly autistic range

I HELD I LOVE YOU

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234482)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 20th, 2018 10:58 AM
Author: orange federal school fanboi



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35444299)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:06 PM
Author: orange federal school fanboi



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453210)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:22 PM
Author: Hyperventilating stage

is it up big or down

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453351)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:23 PM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

Up 50 bps. Still a $11 spread.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453353)



Reply Favorite

Date: February 21st, 2018 2:23 PM
Author: Hyperventilating stage

unnnnghhhhhhhh

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35453357)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 15th, 2018 2:05 PM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

The DOJ's case is shit and everyone knows it. Now the trial is getting delayed two days because people think a settlement is coming. It probably won't happen immediately but that doesn't change the fact that the DOJ has a pure and utter shit-tier case.

LJL at not owning this

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35611951)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 9:49 AM
Author: orange federal school fanboi



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35636677)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 10:59 AM
Author: orange federal school fanboi



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637104)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:02 AM
Author: Bonkers lettuce

really shitty call so far, S&P is up 10% since OP. Basically no alpha.

My longs are up 20-40% since then, mostly industrial names.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637110)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:03 AM
Author: orange federal school fanboi



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637119)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:04 AM
Author: cream narrow-minded pit

Arbs like this are market isolated

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637123)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:05 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

lol jfc

10% is a GREAT return in 4 months,and there's still significant upside from here. You're also not wearing the downside risk of buying industrial or tech names or whatever the hell you have in your portfolio.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637129)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 19th, 2018 11:07 AM
Author: Hyperventilating stage

great call actually and it's going to the moon

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35637134)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 11:35 AM
Author: Godawful Cruise Ship

when moon

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35644755)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 20th, 2018 11:52 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

Judge Leon gave the trial a 6-8 week timetable. Possible they settle before then (good) or they win at trial (good) or they lose at trial (bad). First two outcomes are far more likely though.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35644859)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2018 12:31 PM
Author: Godawful Cruise Ship

ty

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35677308)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 24th, 2018 12:35 PM
Author: Cerebral twinkling uncleanness elastic band

Civ #?

Ty for the info.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35677331)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 23rd, 2018 9:23 AM
Author: orange federal school fanboi



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35668718)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 23rd, 2018 9:33 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

DOJ is getting GAPED in litigation right now. Like, benzo-tier gaped. Thesis is looking better than ever.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35668762)



Reply Favorite

Date: March 23rd, 2018 9:35 AM
Author: orange federal school fanboi



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35668770)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:22 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

The DOJ's KEY WITNESS, one Carl "Faggot" Shapiro, is set to take the stand today. The thrust of his argument is based on the Nash equilibrium model, which is more theoretical than practical and can be easily tweaked depending on the real world assumptions one uses. Most market participants feel the DOJ has done a poor job convincing Judge Leon this merger will substantially reduce competition thus far.

We will see what unfolds!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35815077)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 11th, 2018 10:30 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

Btw the main headwind to this trade lately has been T staying in the gutter (which was a risk outlined in the OP). The theoretical deal spread is now tighter than it's been in months.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35815142)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 17th, 2018 5:38 AM
Author: orange federal school fanboi



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35857361)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 7:33 AM
Author: orange federal school fanboi



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923066)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:46 AM
Author: orange federal school fanboi



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923224)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:48 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

Problem is T is getting clobbered on earnings today (risk outlined upthread - if you are short T you can hedge against this)

On the flip side:

“AT&T IS KILLING THEM”: THE D.O.J. SPURNED A POSSIBLE PEACE OFFERING OVER THE $86 BILLION AT&T-TIME WARNER MERGER—AND NOW THE TRIAL IS ENTERING THE ENDGAME

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/04/att-time-warner-merger-doj-case



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923235)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:50 AM
Author: orange federal school fanboi



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923241)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:52 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

Yes, no idea whether they'll try to squeeze T for more though

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923255)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 8:57 AM
Author: orange federal school fanboi



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923277)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 9:12 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

The trial should be done by early next week, and from there the judge may take 4-6 weeks to write his opinion based on his previous comments. I expect we'll have a pretty good sense of how he'll rule before the opinion is published, but you're looking at like a June 1st-15th ruling.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923339)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 9:16 AM
Author: orange federal school fanboi



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923349)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 9:42 AM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

Depends on your pain tolerance. At this point if the deal broke, TWX probably settles higher than the deal price, but it will take time and you'd have arb selling pressure in the short term. If you're looking for a quick profit, you just want the judge to rule in AT&T's favor and the deal to get done.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35923499)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:46 PM
Author: Godawful Cruise Ship

When are you selling your TWX stock bro?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238426)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 11:29 AM
Author: cream narrow-minded pit

I'm tempted to get long some AT&T here - Anyone know if theyre gonna win this case to buy TWX?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35924107)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 11:31 AM
Author: orange federal school fanboi



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35924117)



Reply Favorite

Date: April 26th, 2018 11:34 AM
Author: cream narrow-minded pit

ok very interesting - I think the DoJ does not have a case here.

If you buy the AT&T stock right and TWX cashflow helps the company like the CEO of AT&T says it will - I think AT&T is an extremely solid long term hold for many years

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#35924134)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2018 11:58 AM
Author: exciting mildly autistic range

Fuck twx is at 91 today

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36014864)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2018 12:16 PM
Author: Racy stock car stage

:(

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36014997)



Reply Favorite

Date: May 9th, 2018 12:02 PM
Author: Crawly Parlour Party Of The First Part

Is this also the nxpi merger arb masterman?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36014897)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 4th, 2018 3:30 PM
Author: Racy stock car stage

Hovenkamp says TWX bros are fukt.

https://www.bizjournals.com/dallas/news/2018/05/29/u-s-government-more-likely-to-win-at-t-time-warner.html

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36182275)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 11th, 2018 2:57 AM
Author: Godawful Cruise Ship

Ruling this week!

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36221862)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:51 PM
Author: Racy stock car stage

We maed it.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232560)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:52 PM
Author: Godawful Cruise Ship

YES WE CAN

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232566)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:54 PM
Author: talking prole

14% return from time op created this thread based on after hours price of $101.50

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232578)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 9:48 PM
Author: sickened turdskin

14% since 2016? doesn't seem worth tying up investmnet dollars for paltry sum

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234550)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:54 PM
Author: Deranged love of her life house

That would require risk, which is why xo didn't invest because they're risk adverse lawcucks.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232584)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 4:56 PM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

lmao Makan u faggot

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36232600)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 9:45 PM
Author: exciting mildly autistic range

how likely is it that TWX trades above 102 in the next couple days? i will probably sell then.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234518)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 12th, 2018 10:38 PM
Author: Greedy emerald crotch state

Anyone know when the next ex dividend date for $T is? Solidly below 1yr and 5yr highs, and that dividend is juicy.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36234906)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 9:16 AM
Author: Deranged love of her life house

http://www.dividend.com/dividend-stocks/technology/telecom-services-domestic/t-atandt/

the dividend is the only reason to own T. Just park your money there and cop dat der dividend.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36236573)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:44 PM
Author: Godawful Cruise Ship

when are bros selling? Deal closes in 7 days

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238410)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:47 PM
Author: orange federal school fanboi



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238434)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:48 PM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

Depends what your view on T is. Probably going to be selling pressure from arbs until 6/20, after which it will probably rally.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238439)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 1:49 PM
Author: orange federal school fanboi



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36238453)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:12 PM
Author: Godawful Cruise Ship

I'd like to take my profits and run very soon. But don't know if I should expect another 5 to 10% bump or not within the next week or so

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239495)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:17 PM
Author: orange federal school fanboi



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239545)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:19 PM
Author: Godawful Cruise Ship

cr. Will sell now

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239556)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:15 PM
Author: exciting mildly autistic range

I sold June 22 100 calls on my shares. No way the deal closes below 100, right?

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239519)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:19 PM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

The gross spread here is $2, which implies a close of ~$99.90. really depends where T goes from here. Arbs were clearly underhedged going into this, but T should bounce hard either soon before the deal closes or right after.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239561)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:21 PM
Author: orange federal school fanboi



(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239578)



Reply Favorite

Date: June 13th, 2018 4:24 PM
Author: carnelian juggernaut kitchen

T getting crushed obviously did not help. But not totally unforeseen given arb flows.

(http://www.autoadmit.com/thread.php?thread_id=3798285&forum_id=2#36239601)